Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open choppy day, DOW -55

Overnight the Asian market lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher and the Philly FED higher. The SPX opened at 2718, 4-points below yesterday’s close, then dropped to 2714. After that the market rallied to SPX 2732 by 11am, with 10am posting higher leading indicators. Then the market dropped to SPX 2711 by 2pm. A rebound into the close ended the day at SPX 2720.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and thee NDDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold rose $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.

The market opened lower today and resumed its choppy action for the week. Monday: 2742, Tuesday: 2702, Thursday: 2732, 2711 … A couple of swings with no net progress. Still have just three waves up from SPX 2595, corrective so far, and waiting for a short term breakout/breakdown. All the action from early-April, and SPX 2554, looks corrective. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a negative divergence. Best to your Opex trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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294 Responses to Thursday update

  1. traderlucas says:

    Hello everyone, it’s me from Vietnam again. 🙂
    “traderlucas says:
    April 26, 2018 at 8:03 am

    Hi all from Vietnam. MA200 was defended nicely and the market seems to want to breakout. Go long from here and looking for a breakout to 2800s. Hope you all trade well!”

    traderlucas says:
    May 11, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Now I think the market has done its rally from MA200 and should go down from here. I expect 2500s from here but anything can happen. Hope you all trade well!

    Today, May 21, 2018: I think the market should come back to my previous plan, which is projected to get to the old high @2875 (first target, new all time high: till then we should know). Chart:

    Sorry if you think i changed my mind too often. Hope you all trade well!


  2. cj32 says:


  3. wildmarkets says:

    This blog has become full of billionaires bragging about their trades and accounts and putting each other down.


  4. soulsurfer says:

    Sharing this week’s premium member only weekly market digest to allow everybody here a FREE first-hand detailed insight on my view of the current state of the market.

    Trade safe!


  5. fionamargaret says:

    Please leave Gary L. alone….let Tony decide if he strays from the subject…psychoanalysis (or character assassination) is not part of the website’s criteria. We are not all the same….

    Thanks and love to Tony….and everyone xx


  6. stan911 says:

    Still looking for a backtest of 24k area for the Dow before running back upto 25300-50 then down again


  7. randomacts4 says:

    My goodness. Can some of you possibly refrain from your childish boorish behavior so those who wish to learn can read productive posts without having to filter through all your bs. Tony’s not well, otherwise he’d most likely ban some and/or close the blog as he’s done before. Since the ‘teacher’s’ out of the room, do we need to devolve into this kind of behavior? Can’t we simply act like the adults we’re supposed to be? Please.


  8. CampFreddie says:

    Yeah …”IG mkts futures don’t mean squat” … Yeah … “Those IG weekend prices are bullsh*t”


  9. mcgcapital says:

    Got stopped out on my FTSE swing short on the open at 7812. I’ve resold 7828 looking for a gap close which is looking good so far.. will be interesting to see what happens at 1am when the FTSE futures open as in the interim IG link the prices to ES and this is a largely US centric move. To have any confidence that a pullback towards 7600 was underway you’d firstly need to see it turn negative on the day tomorrow and then break Fridays low at 7750. If it holds above 7780s and then gains acceptance above 7800 in cash hours the bear move is dead and will switch long at that point. Quite often on these breakouts the first move above sells off then the real breakout occurs on the second move above. Watching for that tomorrow vs a flop back down. Heading into a 9th week of gains and around the previous ATH so you’d expect it to lose steam around here


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