Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open choppy day, DOW -55

Overnight the Asian market lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher and the Philly FED higher. The SPX opened at 2718, 4-points below yesterday’s close, then dropped to 2714. After that the market rallied to SPX 2732 by 11am, with 10am posting higher leading indicators. Then the market dropped to SPX 2711 by 2pm. A rebound into the close ended the day at SPX 2720.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and thee NDDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold rose $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.

The market opened lower today and resumed its choppy action for the week. Monday: 2742, Tuesday: 2702, Thursday: 2732, 2711 … A couple of swings with no net progress. Still have just three waves up from SPX 2595, corrective so far, and waiting for a short term breakout/breakdown. All the action from early-April, and SPX 2554, looks corrective. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a negative divergence. Best to your Opex trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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294 Responses to Thursday update

  1. traderlucas says:

    Hello everyone, it’s me from Vietnam again. 🙂
    “traderlucas says:
    April 26, 2018 at 8:03 am

    Hi all from Vietnam. MA200 was defended nicely and the market seems to want to breakout. Go long from here and looking for a breakout to 2800s. Hope you all trade well!”

    traderlucas says:
    May 11, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Now I think the market has done its rally from MA200 and should go down from here. I expect 2500s from here but anything can happen. Hope you all trade well!

    Today, May 21, 2018: I think the market should come back to my previous plan, which is projected to get to the old high @2875 (first target, new all time high: till then we should know). Chart:

    Sorry if you think i changed my mind too often. Hope you all trade well!

  2. cj32 says:

  3. wildmarkets says:

    This blog has become full of billionaires bragging about their trades and accounts and putting each other down.

  4. soulsurfer says:

    Sharing this week’s premium member only weekly market digest to allow everybody here a FREE first-hand detailed insight on my view of the current state of the market.

    Trade safe!

  5. fionamargaret says:

    Please leave Gary L. alone….let Tony decide if he strays from the subject…psychoanalysis (or character assassination) is not part of the website’s criteria. We are not all the same….

    Thanks and love to Tony….and everyone xx

  6. stan911 says:

    Still looking for a backtest of 24k area for the Dow before running back upto 25300-50 then down again

  7. randomacts4 says:

    My goodness. Can some of you possibly refrain from your childish boorish behavior so those who wish to learn can read productive posts without having to filter through all your bs. Tony’s not well, otherwise he’d most likely ban some and/or close the blog as he’s done before. Since the ‘teacher’s’ out of the room, do we need to devolve into this kind of behavior? Can’t we simply act like the adults we’re supposed to be? Please.

  8. CampFreddie says:

    Yeah …”IG mkts futures don’t mean squat” … Yeah … “Those IG weekend prices are bullsh*t”

    • mcgcapital says:

      They are Fred tbf.. even Newbie knew it would probably gap up tonight. They were miles off on the magnitude of how much it would open up as they quote prices to cover their arses (I.e. balance their order book) and to make money on the spread rather than to be accurate

    • torehund says:

      Looks “ready Freddy” , lets break out😅😆💥

  9. mcgcapital says:

    Got stopped out on my FTSE swing short on the open at 7812. I’ve resold 7828 looking for a gap close which is looking good so far.. will be interesting to see what happens at 1am when the FTSE futures open as in the interim IG link the prices to ES and this is a largely US centric move. To have any confidence that a pullback towards 7600 was underway you’d firstly need to see it turn negative on the day tomorrow and then break Fridays low at 7750. If it holds above 7780s and then gains acceptance above 7800 in cash hours the bear move is dead and will switch long at that point. Quite often on these breakouts the first move above sells off then the real breakout occurs on the second move above. Watching for that tomorrow vs a flop back down. Heading into a 9th week of gains and around the previous ATH so you’d expect it to lose steam around here

  10. tejassamir77 says:

    Last laugh from bull .
    Newbie in cave lol

  11. Theodore Lerts says:

  12. Theodore Lerts says:

    I hope everyone here is ready for BLAST OFF!!! I got 60k long as of close on Friday. Get ready to party my bullish friends.

  13. Thank you Tony for sharing you analysis … my thought:

    • CampFreddie says:

      In your chart showing trades, it looks as though you have shorted all the low turning points ?

      • SGS is not a priced based indicator. The value of SGS is a normalized composite of number of new highs and new lows for five time periods (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly). The status of SGS (long, neutral, or short) is determined each Friday by its value. SGS is long when its value is +50 or higher, neutral when it’s between +50 and -50, and short when it’s -50 or lower. Hope that explains what you see on SGS chart. Cheers :).

  14. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  15. RL11601 says:

    $RUT All time high, All moving averages pointing UP, $RUT Weekly Chart
    Closing Prince 1626> 4MA(1578) > 13MA(1556) >26MA(1550)>52MA(1492)
    short term/intermediate term BULLISH, Now the Moving Averages becomes SUPPORT,
    no way to go down$RUT&p=W&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p64726658861&a=587314213&listNum=1

  16. hohoho598 says:

    Just wondering, meandered here on and off for a while now and Camp Freddie has hardly posted in the past. Now his/her post rate has increased by 3000%. Is that you Holly??

  17. xuwu992000 says:

    Regarding the trade talks, here is my read:
    1, the market will take the joint statement very positively, at least 1% jump on Monday is guaranteed.
    2, the key lingering issue is ZTE, which was not mentioned and clarified in the statement. Remember, LIU He almost cancelled his trip to D.C. because of ZTE, and only decided to come when DT tweeted about it. However, this would be the MAJOR hurdle, as DT can ask Ross to reverse the decision, he can not prevent CONGRESS from passing a bill to block it. Mark my words here, all the agreements now hinge on the fate of ZTE next week.
    3, China imports 20% of the world oil last year, totaling about 200 Billion $. And it will drastically increase (30% YOY) its natural gas (LNG) imports this year, most of them MIGHT come from the U.S. This sector will easily outweigh BOEING & soybeans in terms of dollar value.
    4, in the end, the trade-war subject will fade away by mid-June. The real catalyst for the next leg down would be, IMO, the Mighty Dollar’s rise.

  18. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie if the US is in a mess then god help the rest of the world. Out of interest. Do you travel outside of the US much?

    • NEWBIE says:

      USA is done, when the US Dollar started 90% of world traded the US Dollar, now its down to 40%. America has risen and now its falling.

  19. scottycj1 says:

    So China puts tariffs on all our food imports….going to be a lot of hungry people in China.
    Not something to withhold from your citizens. I wouldn’t subscribe to that misinformation spreading rag. Maybe you should Google the 2nd half of my handle.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Scotty, do you think we are the only country that China can buy food from? Do you think China gives a crap about their people, these are the same country that allows slave labor. The second half of your handle is cj1 which last I heard means c*k jammer #1

  20. scottycj1 says:

    This just out to clear the air…….the negotiations are getting down to brass tacks.

  21. aahmichael says:

    The market moving news this weekend is about China/US trade talks. If you read the joint statement, it becomes obvious that China balked and Trump blinked. The statement is nothing more than a PR statement. It contains nothing new. China has made similar statements in the past which have never led to actual actions. The positive take away is that even though they agreed on nothing specific, talks will continue and Trump has put a hold on his threatened tariffs. It’s a win for China because they don’t have to do anything. They keep the status quo with no consequences.

    • tejassamir77 says:

      Who is super power ?


    • scottycj1 says:

      “The top-line number in the Chinese offer would largely match a request presented to Chinese officials two weeks ago by Trump administration officials in Beijing”.

      China agreed to the administrations proposal …..with their offer…….thats a WIN

      • tommyboys says:

        The left will NEVER concede a Trump victory – it doesn’t matter how much he accomplishes. The market much larger and knowledgable than the left and is signaling a victory. Holly’s most recent multi-month Trump gripe after middle class tax cuts has been “trade wars”. Well no trade wars as Trump ain’t stupid. All those puts she bought based on the fake MSM has cost her – sanity now! Already prolly the best prez for the US middle class in history but you’ll never hear it from the left or the crooked MSM. Go Trump – keep fighting the swamp 👍🏼👍🏼‼️

      • tommyboys says:

        The left will NEVER concede a Trump victory – it doesn’t matter how much he accomplishes. The market much larger and knowledgable than the left and is signaling a victory. Holly’s most recent multi-month Trump gripe after middle class tax cuts has been “trade wars”. Well no trade wars as Trump no dummy. All those puts she bought based on the fake MSM has cost her – sanity now! Already prolly the best prez for the US middle class in history but you’ll never hear it from the left or the crooked MSM. Go Trump – keep fighting the swamp 👍🏼👍🏼‼

      • aahmichael says:

        You put a sentence in quotes, but you didn’t say who you were quoting. Let me guess…you’re quoting yourself?

        The WSJ reported that the Chinese rejected the $200bn number presented to them by the US and the joint statement reflects that fact.

        As I said, China agreed to nothing specific, which is why the joint statement contained no numbers, no timetables, and no consequences for China if they did nothing. Instead, Trump blinked and cancelled his threatened tariffs, with no deadline for China to do anything. China has Trump by the balls. He needs China to help with NK, and a trade war would devastate the GOP in the mid-term elections. We won’t here another threatening word towards China from Trump until after the elections at the earliest.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Who cares who has won as long as no trade war and market collapse? Then again I guess many on here would actually like to see that collapse for their own gains.

      • tommyboys says:

        Viv 👍🏼🤢

      • aahmichael says:

        One of the reasons Trump was elected was because he promised to bring China to its knees regarding the trade imbalance. Now he has chickened out. The great negotiator got nothing in negotiations and ran home with his tail between his legs.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Again why does it matter? Is this blog about the stock market or about trumps pre election promised?

        • mcgcapital says:

          The main positive about this news is that the blog’s resident nut job can hopefully stop going on about it 10 times a day now. Interesting that the perma bulls are latching on to it as a reason for the markets to rally having dismissed its importance in prior weeks when the news flow was more negative. Reality is, the market hasn’t cared about this very much apart from initially when it was all a shock, and consensus has been an agreement would probably be reached eventually. We’ll gap up tonight on the news, but that means nothing for what the next move is. All I know is, global markets are up 8 weeks in a row with the US lagging.. we’re due a pullback here so it’s not a place to initiate new swing longs. Big divergences everywhere between sectors and countries which is a stark contrast to last year.. suggests liquidity is still impaired as they’re unable to ramp everything together. Doesn’t mean we’re going to tank but also means we might struggle to sustain gains.. sideways market until something changes

  22. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Hope you are well. Stay positive…
    SPX ~ @ YTFZ (Inflection) ~
    SPY ~ Weekly Pivots Contracting ~

  23. kingfrogcash says:

    The 2780 pivot is in play this week. Some say a sell off later in the week. With the IWM hitting an all new high, it would make sense now to go above 2780 and to an all time on the SPX NYSE and Dow highs, now, rather than later in the year. The interest rate and 10 year is the problem that will get worse. It’s hitting currencies around the world.

  24. NEWBIE says:

    More can kicking down the road, nothing significant accomplished. Bulls all excited over nothing.

    U.S., China putting trade war on hold, Treasury’s Mnuchin says.

    • CampFreddie says:

      That Right shoulder looks a bit forced, and is wishful thinking to me. I would like so see it match better with the left one. GL.

      • Gary Lewis says:

        No thinking at all. Only an observation. What is your outlook on gold and silver?

        • Gary Lewis says:

          So, in reviewing Bulkowski, it is a broadening, descending formation that I observed and not a head and shoulders (apolgies for my error). However the effects are more or less the same. In a bull market, the formation is effective 23/23 with an average rise of 28%.

    • Mary773 says:

      Since the mid-90s. the formation has been less significant than the absolute level. When the ratio has reached current levels, there has either been a multi-month rally or a multi-year rally in precious metals. Of course, this time could be different, just as the eagerly awaited stock market crash to agonizing oblivion could actually have begun this time. It is just that fading the historical percentages usually results in frustration and poverty.

  25. CampFreddie says:

    Follow up – Spx 5 min Fut’s made a nice bullish structure in the 5xmin chart last friday.

    Here is my best guess for action overnight and early next week. Glta Aimho.
    Spx 1xhour cont.

  26. CampFreddie says:

    Newbie Crash-Ometer buy signal update. How is it doing ?

    S&P 4xhour cont (click to enlarge)

  27. CampFreddie says:

    This is looking good prior to Globex open. This is a real time snap of IG mkts -14:33 London time.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Earth to camp Freddie, ig futures don’t mean squat. Secondly, 100 point up on the DOW is nothing.

      • CampFreddie says:

        Newb – IG mkts have been pretty accurate in the past, they have to be or they would be Arb’ed out of buisness. You do realize IG mkts are a Ftse-100 Plc.

        • tommyboys says:

          Agree Camp. IG Sunday has been accurate as far as direction like 85% the past year. Typically they’re only up or down like 25-35 points. When they indicate a larger move in either direction they’ve been more like 100% accurate. I’ll bet Dow opens more than 200 points higher based on this…place YOUR bet…👍🏼

    • mcgcapital says:

      Those weekend prices are bullsh*t… try chucking on a £50 a point trade and see how much it moves them.. no liquidity at all. Perfect example was in mid April after the Syria strikes IG had the markets gapping down, then at 11pm they opened much higher

      • tommyboys says:

        Bull market activity. In a Bear it’d be the opposite.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Think whether it’s a bull or bear is irrelevant tbh.. I know people who work at IG and they have a risk exposure limit on the indices of £35m. By that I mean say FTSE was at 7000, as a company they can be exposed to a maximum of £5,000 a point in either direction. So if their clients are net long or short by more than that, they have to hedge the excess in the futures market. At the weekend, there’s no futures market open to hedge in. And the volume of trades they do must be very low.. based on it moving 5 points if I place a £50 trade I’d guess that they move the weekend prices around in a way that means that their order book stays balanced or close to. Can’t read anything into how it will act when the actual futures open.. I’ve seen it be different too many times to be reliable. although I agree it’s bound to gap up with the China news

  28. Dow Utilities just crashed below support. Utilities appear to be leading the market as a whole, just like they did back in November when it topped.

    Why pay attention to a stale index such as the Utilities? Justin Mamis, author of When to Sell, writes on page 140 of that book:

    Because the DJU represents a sector of the market peculiarly influenced by such factors as money rates and industrial activity, it is a technically useful barometer, even for those who are such swingers that they’d never buy supposedly staid utility stocks. Periods when the Utilities and the Industrials are moving in the same direction (are “in gear”) are the norm, as be expected. But on several different, and vital, occasions such as 1965, 1973, and 1993, the DJU has led the rest of the market, by topping out and heading down before any such behavior in the DJIA or S&P 500. (Similarly, it can serve as a leading indicator when first to bottom and head up, as it did in mid-1982 and the summer of 1974.) It’s a simple matter to track this indicator since it and the DJI are charted one under the other in The Wall Street Journal every day. When the Utility Average refuses to participate in a rally, not just for one or two days, but for a couple of weeks or more, its divergence becomes significant, warning of potential trouble for the rest of the list. It’s hard to believe, because the other averages are still bubbling, but simple in concept because such a divergence is the forerunner of a major change in the direction of interest rates.

  29. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: Death by a Thousand Cuts

  30. scottycj1 says:

    Trade Talks—————-
    The top-line number in the Chinese offer would largely match a request presented to Chinese officials two weeks ago by Trump administration officials in Beijing.

    But getting to a $200 billion reduction of the U.S. China trade deficit on a sustainable basis would require a massive change in the composition of trade between the two countries, as the U.S. goods deficit was $375 billion last year.

    The United States’ two biggest exports to China were aircraft at $16 billion last year, and soybeans, at $12 billion.

  31. phil1247 says:


    you have got me worried again

    hope all is well with you

  32. May 15 Low to high Today

    8 waves total counting end in After hours

    1-2-3-4-5 A-B Ending at top 251.90 then C Down

    Would it be pretty Bullish set up going into Monday

  33. May 15 Low 241.50 to today’s high of 251.92

    Seven waves up

    What it that called best Logical Count ?

    I’m puzzled

  34. Question Please!

    Has anyone ever saw Elliott Count like Nvda has on 5 Min Chart

    May low to today Gap Up High

    7 waves up?

    What am I missing here ?

    I caught Ending Diagonal Triangle from 248.21 Pivot At 10:45 am To 11:45 am High Of 250.89 Went Short Into Close Covered after hours at $245.87 great short

    What would you call that 7 waves up?

    Puzzled thanks in advance

  35. hohoho598 says:

    Canada and Canibus, kinda rhymes… since when has government done something that it doesn’t expect to profit from, on the backs of it’s little plebs. Tax tax tax, and maybe it will encourage those that think of taking crack, to try this first and be hooked for life in a permanent state of paralysis. As far as medicinal use, why not use that as an excuse (diversion). Did we really land on the moon, are there men from Mars, are aliens being held captive in area 51. We can go on and on, hang on I’m starting to wake up, better go and have another joint see ya.

    • h66h says:

      Did you know over 98% of cannabis users started with milk? Yes, it’s true, milk is the gateway to serious substance abuse.

  36. Gary Lewis says: Bonds stared into the abyss and popped as if it felt the fires of hell down beneath. Couldn’t fill the gap at 120, let’s see if it can fill the gap at 118.5.

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