Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were higher plus the trade deficit was lower. The market gapped down to SPX 2624 at the open and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 2635 yesterday. At 10am ISM services was reported lower. The decline continued until the SPX hit 2595 around 11am. Then the market started to rally. The rally rose all the way back to close the gap, when hitting SPX 2637 around 2:30. After that the market pulled back to close at 2630.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support slips to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2656 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls est. +188k.

The market gapped down at the open today from yesterday’s SPX 2636 close. It then dropped a total of 41 points from that close when bottoming at SPX 2595. After that the market rallied all the way back to SPX 2637 by 2:30. Volatile day traders market continues. We continue to observe a lot of three wave movements. Of late: [2717] 2658-2684-2613, and [2683] 2625-2661-2595. However the market is now approaching the two previous lows Feb 2533 and Apr 2554, with today’s drop below 2600. Let’s start looking for technical signals that could suggest an end to this multi-month correction. Short term support slips to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at 2632 and 2656 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your Payrolls trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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279 Responses to Thursday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    you dont want it above 1315 any more until targets are hit

    you know who you are buddy 😉

    • phil1247 says:

      if SHORT bonds and notes

      blue horseshoe is looking for the exits now
      if long from lows supports

  2. llerias7 says:

    I am sorry for this past series of posts w links…I was doing a experimentation to post an image without the link.

  3. llerias7 says:

  4. torehund says:

    Sign of an impending upturn; Monthly Spx Rsi is hocking, so if Trump is heft off the hock, heck this market will head for the moon. Sorry Daniels you cant have both sides of the coin😫

    • torehund says:

      …and good weekend Tony, bulls and bears alike😎 Surfing crap waves for now, next week will be better….

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tore, instead of poor waves, let’s try the rain-soaked Kentucky Derby….
      Justify, Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Mendelssohn…….and if you want an outsider to win..Lone Sailor…..

      • fionamargaret says:

        Well, we got the winner and the third, so maybe we should just be happy in the moment.
        Time is an observed phenomenon, a literal definition is elusive….an illusion.
        Animals, except humans, live in a continual present with no sense of our separation of past, present and future.
        I feel there is even more, a fluidity extending beyond accepted norms…but that is another story…..x

  5. EW certainly clarified for me where we are, what to expect, and how to profit from it. Is this the longest most confusing drop in history? me, i did a silly thing again. I took insurance out for a deep drop come Monday simply because anything can cause the markets jitters over the weekend.

    I placed SPY 260 Put bets for next Friday. A rally at the onset Monday will hurt my exit plans but wiling to chance it. I have no technical or visual queues on what happens in immediate future other than we finished strongly today and we might have a continuation play. I just couldn’t resist a stab at a dramatic opening Monday. my luck it spikes at the open much higher.

    Everyone and the world sees the triangle so I suspect that will not be in play but what the hey, I was so confused on todays move it must mean a counter move. Or Not!

    Now if i was to go back 4 weeks, pre-earnings announcements and declare that the move off the lows right before season started resulted in a 2580 to 2660 advance after most of earnings were out you would call that a decent move. In context from the prior months drop it isn’t. And now we have finished most of the earnings announcement. So what will be the spark to light this sucker.
    Nothing on EW front suggests a major move here other than the forever geometric shape of a triangle. Not the FED. OK possibly JOBS. The announcement was today! it was treated very favorably. Will that alone carry us forward? Will China, EU, NAFTA news cloud the picture?

    Can anyone on the technical front actually see a major move next week or just anticipation. I mean certain targets hit or violated to either negate a rally or defend a big drop? Are we once again stuck in the DMZ?

    • fbender7 says:

      It’s really a wait and see situation.

      Today the SPX technically moved back into a short term uptrend. I see one of two things happening on the technical front: (1) It’s possible that the triangle that everyone sees ended at yesterday’s 2595 low, or; (2) The market follows through on today’s uptrend for a day or so, then starts dropping down into the 2575-2600 range to end the triangle.

      In either case patience is required to let the triangle play itself out. Let the market come to you grasshopper. LOL!

      From Frost and Prechter: “Triangles take time and go sideways.” Elliot Wave Principle,
      p. 52

      • vivelaamo says:

        In either case patience is required to let the triangle play itself out. Let the market come to you grasshopper. LOL!


        Seems to be serious lack of this in some quarters. Everyone wants the big move tomorrow. We’ve had 4 months of consolidation after 22 months of parabolic up moves. Why are some so stunned by it?

    • Theodore Lerts says:

      Why aren’t you posting as Holly anymore? Wish there was a way to block these garbage posts.

    • ewmarkets says:

      After earnings report, companies can start buying back stocks again, which creates buying pressure and puts a floor underneath.

  6. mjtplayer says:

    The EUR/USD closing below 120 on a weekly basis is bearish, next stop is mid 115’s

  7. NEWBIE says:

    So almost everybody everywhere is now looking for more upside. Bears have capitulated, Monday could be the big DOWN.

    • E says:

      Gotta say this bear is a bit shell shocked today but I’m going to hold my may 11 target since I’ve held it for this many weeks already. Something still smells foul. Volume is not there at all for one thing. Have a great weekend everyone!

    • tommyboys says:

      NEWWWB… If I had a dime for everytime you repeated this – and a few other “canned” statements I’d be ultra-rich and wouldn’t have to “trade” at all…

  8. rd3777 says:

    Next Week….

    • So many see triangles. Triangles having baby triangles. Like forever subdividing a number in half to infinity. maybe the moves going forward would be within 5 SPX points and then 4,3,2,1, .75, .5, .25

      I give the EW chartist credit for such patience. Mr. market doesn’t want anyone to know until it’s too late! Perhaps a flash crash soon in the middle of the day when no one suspects it. Envious of day traders now. They don’t have to figure it all out. just the days moves without any distractions. Perhaps i will change my trading? nah.

      Maybe next week the fog gets lifted.

      • There goes trade relief. Is Trump going to remain silent on the issue as if its a minor concern? Up to him to talk back trade war or carry it thru. This weekend we should know. The press is going to ask and how the administration responds could be telling. Yes my obsessive compulsive nature on this issue. I believe it is the one factor causing so much market concern as well as the FEDs.

      • llerias7 says:


    • Billy says:

      Nice RD and plausible. Just been looking for some high targets for next week. Came up with 24600 and 2690. If your triangle works out the crashola will be memorable. Europe has had a very good run up and outperforming Wall Street recently on the back of a weaker Euro and Pound. However they are looking toppy and potentially running out of waves IMO. Just a 50% retrace on the FTSE, DAX & CAC would be at least 5%. However that will be smack potatoes compared to the measured move down on the DOW and SPX. Both can be counted with the same triangle format on your chart. It must be said that a triangle cannot be a wave 2. But it can be a B wave with a C wave down to follow. The measured move down out of those triangles for the potential C wave are around 21200 and 2250. That’s whopping 14% and 16% drop from 24600 and 2690. Not sure what will cause that but that’s the math brother.

    • tommyboys says:

      Wave 2s don’t form triangles, wave 4s do…

  9. E says:

    Ok… did not expect that one!!! Either we are blasting up now or that was a very lengthy throw over and the crash will come next week. Monkeys win!

  10. CampFreddie says:

    …….. is this still the Fomc “Knee-Jerk” reaction ?

  11. E says:

    Now it really looks l like a final throw-over kiss of death to me. Will be more strongly confirmed if we breakdown through 2660 again and begin falling hard.

  12. As of today 81% of SP500 reported earnings. 78% beat estimates on revenue. If the first 81% announcements produced a bear trend what happens after they stop announcing? Hope trade wars and unemployment at 3.9% with a FED that dropped the ball on raising rates because of these fears helps future market movement. Me, unless we reverse on trade wars and economic numbers cool off we will have the start of a nasty bond, dollar cycle that will compete with investors money.

    For above reasons i can’t see a breakout from this 3 month bear trend.

    • See nothing to indicate weakness in short term. Anyone holding shorts thru this weekend? Not me.

      • As expected a small retrace from the highs of day. Not more than 10 SPX point. is this in 3’s or 5’s. if 3’s we have seen the top. if not 2710 area seems likely. Monday early will give us the answer.

        Anyone take a position during the day?

        • vivelaamo says:

          I take long positions on all pbs. Pure gambling! Always pays off on the long side. Just needs patience and a bit of short term pain.

  13. gary61b says:

    spx closes at 2649

  14. vivelaamo says:

    I reckon we will see 2715 area next week and either stall or blast through. It’s all setup for the low to be in. About time!

    • alexh110 says:

      The correction looks too assymetric to be complete. Needs another leg down.

  15. thoth8 says:

    FED is in shopping spree : )

  16. rd3777 says:

    The Central Banks will lose the battle to rising rates….

  17. purplember says:

    anyone going to the Buffett rally this weekend ? i’ve attended at least 5 or 6 of them

  18. fotis2 says:

    Close above here= Daily 3BR=2725 ES

  19. iamwhoiis says:

    Anybody up for a quick return to 2636 from here?

    • stcoleridge says:

      Unlikely in my opinion. Best off looking for the count that has yesterday’s low as the int. iv bottom.

      • stcoleridge says:

        Actually this brings Tony’s triangle count back into play targeting above 2717 for wave D.

        • If that holds true what is the range for D to finish and what would be E’s range in the drop?

          • stcoleridge says:

            I’m no triangle expert but between 2718 and 2800 is the range for D although it might look a bit odd if it gets up close to 2800. Then E down to somewhere near the A and C wave lows is what I’m thinking. But like I said, I’m no expert.

  20. alexh110 says:

    This looks to me like a 3-3-5 from 2594.
    If so, should be almost done.

  21. micky says:

    as long as the 60 holds I have 2nd vst resistance in the high 60’s to low 70 atm, depending on how long it takes to get there.

  22. stcoleridge says:

    Whatever happened to liquidity?

  23. if it gets past 2466, might have to call this the warren buffett low at 2594 yesterday

  24. quickrick38 says:

    This push up should finish close to 2661.

  25. tommyboys says:

    A/D gaining strength. RUT HOD…

  26. E says:

    Small overlap over waves 2 and 4 just happened. Does this mean it’s done and impulse down will begin?

  27. rd3777 says:

    Dow is done……

  28. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Looks like the boys have more upside in mind…(Trying to jinx em…lol.)

  29. Gary Lewis says:

    OK, decided to sell the last of the near term SPY calls. Off to the beach 🙂

  30. Many times my visual recognition patterns match the EW methods without intending to. I see 4/2 peak of wave at 2658. if it only retraces 100 percent that tells me weakness ahead. I also accept once broken above there is likely a retrace BUT in my method i see the last retrace of the wave up was small, not the typical Fibonacci ratios. I expect that pattern to continue if we are intended to go higher. I also do not see a move higher than 2740 in the coming weeks ahead. Immediate action: based on length of first wave up this one should match or exceed it. the pattern suggests a 35 point minimum of this wave, 2661. is the move up a 3 wave or 5 wave pattern?

    The struggle at the 100 percent retrace is the TELL for me. if it manages to break above we should not see any deep retrace here. if it doesn’t and the retrace is more than 10 SPX points I would use that as a major warning.

    • Notice how long it is taking to break above 2658? We are NOW at the 100 percent mark. A major slowdown as we approached that number. it is within easy grasp to break above yet so far it hasn’t. Just broke above as i write this. now we have 2658 and 2661 as the major resistance in my mind. Small window so for me the decision on bets becomes easier. I bet after the move in this small window.

      • Seems to be rolling over exactly as the last wave up did. This suggests any drop from the top 2659 should not exceed 2650 on the downside before another rally wave takes it higher. Using visual queues not EW but it seems to fit once again with many of the EW assumptions. My biggest difference is the amount of the fall in the corrective wave here. I see a very shallow drop before resuming another leg up. While it is moving higher the trajectory has slowed to a crawl. Once we hit the highs of this wave there should ONLY be a shallow retrace. It should also occur below 2662.

        The slow death march or are they planning and suceeding in breaking out? Glad I only had a small bet for today.

        • BREAKOUT! This move was telegraphed once it started. It followed easy guidelines. not many saw today coming but what the hey. This portends a minimum 3 day romp in the park. How high? Looks like Monday and Tuesday are up days. Glad i waited. BUT we have definitely NOT finished the down cycle. That’s the way i see it. No one to two day purge means no bottom. How long this rides higher is anyone’s guess BUT it should be short. My best guess is it doesn’t even break the 2700 mark. that means we shouldn’t finish today much higher and Monday and Tuesday are muted up days. if we do rally hard into Tuesday i will reevaluate. On sidelines for now. A break higher than say 2710 and the next top isn’t much higher say 2740.

          Anything over 2740 and I throw in towel.

          • vivelaamo says:

            If you think nobody saw today coming you clearly do not read any posts.

            • The same people that saw it coming were most likely the same to miss the drops also. Nope, to many biased bets here. Catching both sides is hard and a few have done fairly well. Day trading is the answer to this dilemma. People like Phil and Lee look at immediate moves and not the bigger picture.

  31. kvilia says:

    Is anybody interested in junior miners here? They’ve been holding up nicely, and with gold and silver ready to breakout…

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Only if DXY unembeds.That damn index loves to stay embedded a looooong time in its bull modes.

  32. vivelaamo says:

    What’s been going on today? I’m seeing Newbie and bulls both happy. Tony’s pivot a beauty once again.

  33. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    May 2, 2018 at 1:54 pm
    i would expect short at 69.03 to trade again at minimum
    but 69.92 target is begging to be hit

    Fotis ….

    i do hope you saw this

    CL rally should be no surprise

    69.92 profit target hit !

    ie take profits

  34. alexh110 says:

    Possible forwards projection of hourly MACD.
    Symmetry is centred around thick red line on price pattern.

  35. phil1247 says:


    es 10 min bar violated
    i am looking for the exits now

    see you next week !

  36. gary61b says:

    ES, 2644 then up to 2663 which should be the wall…Phils wall.

  37. Update on extension…the new level is 2642.29. That is the 61.8% LONG. If that level fails equities are going lower. Conversely, if /ES trades to the 50% LONG at 2644.33 and is defended, equities are going to continue to rally.

  38. alexh110 says:

    Have added some shorts at the 2656 pivot. Heavily short now.

  39. With the Jobs report so strong and unemployment at 3.9 percent the FED decided to hold off on a tiny rate hike? Only ONE reason, Trade War. The 10 year will break out soon as will the dollar. Not talking major moves but enough to spook the hell out of the market. the dollar should break above 92.64 soon and quickly run up to 95.15. 10 year should hit and exceed 3.11 percent, a target set many years ago.

    Who has the Fibonacci Turn-Dates? I believe someone mentions May 8th? A top or bottom of some sort?

  40. fotis2 says:

    Oil wrong looks like a daily Bullflag for now

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