Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: selloff then rebound, DOW -64

Overnight the Asian markets open gained 0.2%. European markets opened also gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2648 close. At 10am ISM , construction spending, and auto sales were all reported lower. This offsets yesterday’s reports which showed personal income/pending, core inflation and the Chicago PMI all rose. By 1pm the SPX had dropped to 2625, and then started to rebound. After that the market rallied into the close to the OEW 2656 pivot again. The close was SPX 2655.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, then the FOMC statement at 2pm.

The market opened lower today, continuing yesterday’s decline from SPX 2683. After hitting SPX 2625 around 1pm the market rallied for the first time this week. Clearly this remains a day traders market with a negative corrective bias. From the April 2717 high we count three waves to SPX 2613. Then a rally to SPX 2683. Followed by a decline to SPX 2625 this afternoon. Choppy action. The total correction continues to look like a double three/triangle. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum rose from extremely oversold to just below overbought. Best to the often volatile FOMC trading tomorrow.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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432 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    SPX close


  2. E says:

    The wave count is very clear folks. A – five waves up, B down, C – five waves up. Now minute 5 down should unfold in 5 waves. Dire warning!

  3. micky says:

    another maybe to keep in mind, the 2715 ish may have been an A, we did the B at LOD and now started working on the C up

  4. Wow….this was an impressive bust & reversal through the 200 day and into massive support, I’m impressed close should be a new print high for the day….3:30 to 4:30 should be powerful….Trump news is just an distraction.

  5. market hit every possible resistance/support for the last 2 weeks as it drops. I saw 259 as the first stop and sure enough it held and rallied. very controlled drop which means we are NOT at the bottom yet. I sold all my Puts at 259 anticipating a rally. Took profits and bought using a fifth of those profits when SPX was down 16 points for a one day bet for this not to hold and slide even further. Not likely at 2:46. Glad i got opportunity to sell today.

    • xuwu992000 says:

      Good call and trade there!

    • Still slip/sliding for a long drawn out bottom. Seems we will not have our classic purging event followed by a huge dead cat bounce. Grinding down is more likely. Powers that be don’t want this resolved quick because the trade war fiasco will only get worse next month. I suspect the FED had that in mind when not raising rates. If June 1st comes and all countries on list gets tariffs there is no way the FED will raise rates then either.

      Short term: if we can hold above 2625 at the close today there is a good chance of a rally between 2710 and 2750.

      • This sucker held EXACTLY where i said (2625) to have a chance at the rally starting tomorrow. There is two ways it can still go according to the way I see it. if it stays within 10 points higher for first 2 hours of day tomorrow we should have the last leg down. if it holds above in that time frame we have finished the lows for now.

  6. E says:

    Waterfall will likely start in the last trading hour.

  7. phil, et. al. just an observation….if the low is in at SPX 2594, that was a 40 point move lower today. I can count a 5 wave rally on the 1 minute chart. Therefore, a 20 point 50% correction or a wave 2 of some degree, would be expected. That would put the SPX at 2014. If SPX rallies hard off that target could be wave 3. However, if SPX breaks 2014 to the downside, have to think SPX will continue to decline.

    This post was meant in the spirit to debate EW.

    • scottycj1 says:

      think SPX 39-40 LOOKS FUN

    • phil1247 says:

      here is the problem with ew
      you count 5 waves but……………
      you dont know if the wave is over yet
      so you dont know where you are

      when i said above 2611 squeeze is on
      i jumped in long because i new exactly where i was

  8. Quick note…the 2594 pivot and Profit target was tested. A 50%/61.8% SHORT (15 minute trend) was immediately drawn and the 61.8% of that move was defended. SIMUMTANEOUSLY, /VX TESTED IT’S CORRESPONDING 61.8% LONG AT 16.58 AND ALSO DEFENDED.

    I will try a long when both index’s (/ES/VXbreak their 15 minute SHORTS/LONGS, respectively.. Until then I have to favor the bear trend. This could come sooner rather than later but I will stick to the charts and the algorithm that’s been reasonably accurate.

  9. fotis2 says:

    Majority Bear an hour ago now Bull give it another hour lets see

  10. CampFreddie says:

    *** Bears – Good work and money hard earned, but don’t get greedy imho.
    A sharp rejection by the market of lower prices should have got your’e attention Aimho Gl.

  11. rd3777 says:

    Warning this will get ugly…..

  12. alexh110 says:

    Added some speculative shorts at 2634 (62% Fib retrace of decline from 2661).

  13. NEWBIE says:

    We will drop 200 points from right here and now.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Bad news coming to justify this HUGE drop.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Trapped shorts Newb? Oh dear some people never learn. Looks like you’ll have to stay on the streets a while longer.

    • xuwu992000 says:

      You didn’t cover your shorts from today’s low???? If you don’t pocket the gain, what is the point of being “right”? The market is bottomed today, at least short term, as May 3 is my minor turning date. This upward move will last until at least May 8, the next Major turning date.

      • scottycj1 says:

        Just for YOU WU
        Music to go along with your mkt calls

        • xuwu992000 says:

          Thanks, indeed. I am not bearish, and I am not bullish–I am MONKEYISH, jumping around. I am a day-trader, and will jump in and out for any potential 10+ plus move. If you ask the EW count, long-term, I am bullish, as the final top has not in yet. Medium-term, a bit leaning bearish, as the W-4 hasn’t completed. Short-term, bullish, the market will hit 2666 by Tuesday. Confused? That is the way to make money in the current market.

      • randomacts4 says:

        Xuwu, the dates you provided are also in line with Raj’s: “There are 3 upcoming hourly Apex CITs to watch closely on 5/3, 5/8 and 5/11, suggesting the choppiness should continue for a while longer.”

    • E says:

      You think minor wave 5 will be a 200 point drop??? I’m not sure about that…

  14. scottycj1 says:

    pullback (backtest) to the broken uptrend line

  15. phil1247 says:

    potential face ripper to 2648 now

Comments are closed.