Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2670, and ended there as well. The SPX ranged between 2684 on Tuesday to 2613 on Wednesday. Quiet compared to most recent weeks. Also, in a week that had three gap up openings, and no gap down openings, one would have thought the market would have gained about 2%. But it was simply unchanged. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.3%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.3%. Economic reports were all positive. On the uptick: Q1 GDP, existing/new home sales, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence/sentiment, durable goods, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s economic highlights: FOMC meeting, monthly payrolls, and ISM. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

After making an Intermediate wave iii high in late January, the market has churned its way for three months in an Intermediate iv correction. Tuesday will make it the fourth month, and longest correction of this 2016-2018 bull market. It is quite easy to turn bearish after well over a year of 3% or less corrections, and then watch a nearly 12% correction unfold while dragging out for months. We see no reason to be concerned unless the SPX loses 2500.

The bull market, despite this lengthy Int. iv, continues to unfold as labeled. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Intermediate wave iii then started to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Then after a lengthy uptrend, Minor wave 5 and Int. iii ended in January 2018. Int. wave iv has been underway since then. When it concludes, Int. wave v should carry the market to all-time new highs. Still looking for SPX 3000+ between 2018-2020.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

This Intermediate wave iv downtrend has had many starts and stops. In February it looked like it could be done, but the following uptrend failed. In early April it looked like a double bottom, but the rally off that low has been choppy and corrective. This week, after the gap up openings, in an uptrend the market would have been up about 2%. It was unchanged.

We continue to track two possible scenarios: triangle and double three. The triangle suggests a rally about SPX 2717 before the SPX drops back to the 2550’s again. A double three suggests the market trades lower, without rallying to 2717, to complete the pattern in the low to mid 2500’s. Either way it looks like more choppy action ahead. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2631 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.

SHORT TERM

The month of April started with such promise. The SPX had made a double bottom. There were positive divergences everywhere. Strong earnings were expected to be reported. And the GDP was still near 3%. The market started with a strong rally from SPX 2554 – 2672. Then after a pullback to SPX 2586 still in the first week, the choppy/corrective activity began and lasted throughout the month.

Expecting more of the same until this complex Int. wave iv completes its pattern. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just above neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher and gained 0.7%.

European markets were all higher and gained 0.6%.

The DJ World index lost 0.3%, and the NYSE lost 0.1%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.1%.

Crude is still in an uptrend but lost 0.4%.

Gold may be in a downtrend and lost 1.1%.

The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 1.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: personal incoming /spending and the CPI at 8:30, then the Chicago PMI at 10am. Tuesday: ISM, construction spending, and auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP and FOMC statement. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, trade deficit, ISM services and factory orders. Friday: monthly payrolls (est. 103K). Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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439 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Holly Silver says:

    Based on posts these last few weeks I can tell the market is doing its job of mass frustration and confusion. One thing remains common. 90% will stick with their original opinion and find reasons to do so. And when those same 90% do change their position on trend it is most likely very near a major change once again.

    Me, I will most probably add more long shots Monday if the market obliges. I always double down when given the chance in blackjack. My Bet. No advice for others.

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  2. fionamargaret says:

    Here are the numbers as I see them…and yes I made a call on oil to go up at 59 reaching 72/74
    SPY down to 233
    QQQ down to 133
    IWM completed its progression
    $BKX down to 91
    C down to 58
    NVDA down to 185
    AMZN down to 1639
    NFLX down to 253

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    • fionamargaret says:

      I should learn to read my own calculations
      AMZN completed its progression at 1639, coincidentally on the nose after results, but then has closed lower…I shall update when I have more data…anything above 1639 is superfluous…x

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    • stan911 says:

      Fiona a question you’ve been call spy to 233 snp to 2465 and lower, the question I would like to know is can the snp head up and make new highs or head back to 2800. Or do we have to head down to your numbers first before we head up higher. What is the line in the sand for you to say that where not going to your lower target? Is the sequence affected if new highs.

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      • fionamargaret says:

        The numbers are probably the same as posted last week and before……they are where the data suggests we are going. Stock numbers change more often than indices.
        Yes, if the market started going higher it would change the numbers suggested, but it would have to go quite a bit higher to change…..i.e. when we were in the 2800’s the number for the $SPX was still suggesting 2609…..
        If we are going lower, which is where it is suggesting at this point in time, the sequence of numbers suggests 2612, 2532, 2465, 2340, 2215, 2087….

        Always use stops…

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  3. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

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  4. bfquant says:

    Over the last few years, I have noticed many instruments, over many time intervals, make major tops in what would otherwise look like a classic wave 4 triangle. The wave 4 triangle “look” is sometimes wave 5 itself. Anyone else notice this in any instruments they track? I mention this in the off chance that the S&P has just finished such a wave 5.

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  5. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony

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  6. Holly Silver says:

    Trump just announced how the EU is ripping us off. Can you guess what happens on May 1st? The silly armada to China is just a distraction. If trump goes after a phantom enemy on trade war like the EU how well will those so called talks progress in China? Merkel will immediately announce retaliatory measures. With FOMC, Trade Wars, and Iran Deal imploding I can’t see any ability to gain traction. I can see a deep drop this week. Surprisingly many here now see it too. But of course actions by this administration has nothing to do with the moves. I just got lucky and will most probably be called luckiest SOB if we happen to coincide with May1st and a big drop.

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    • aahmichael says:

      As long as you keep saying the same thing 10 times a day, you can always say you called it when the market has a down day. As I recall, you gave a specific daily target at the end of last week, but you missed by 100 SPX points. Did Trump say something positive about trade wars that day that caused you to miss by so much?

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      • Holly Silver says:

        Please refer to the post? I have no idea what you are talking about. in fact I just re-entered my PUTS on Friday. I always give my bets as close to actual time frame as possible. I told you to WAIT till the Trade War announcement on Tuesday to start calling me out on silly talks and sillier coincidences.

        WHY the obsession to prove me wrong? Just wait a few days. Impatience like that suggests you should not be playing the game. I suppose if you prove me wrong your wins are that much higher? have you seen me call anyone out on their bad bets? I focus on my own money.

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        • aahmichael says:

          Here ya go:

          Holly Silver says:
          April 26, 2018 at 8:38 am
          Dark Cloud Clover seen at open. Who gives these candlesticks such names? High reliability and bearish. We should see a sloppy day but one that either builds strong on the downside as the hours progress or end the day down but not by much. Any upside close today is NOT a good sign for MY scenario to work out. I had thought we find the tringle bottom today at around 258 – 254.
          EU is indicating Tariffs on them will be implemented this coming Tuesday.

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    • vivelaamo says:

      If we have a big drop on May 1st I will be the first to say well done and good call.

      But if we don’t then what?

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      • Holly Silver says:

        Then I probably lose money on MY OPINION! How many here do the same? I suppose the other drops were just strange coincidences? How likely is it that the street would shrug off another trade war with our allies? Maybe i have too much faith in the masses and common sense. I already know no one will think my calls are ever right no matter how many coincidences there are. I made a bundle already on those bets despite my losses trying to pick the exact drop date. I bet ONLY long shots that will produce 20 or more times the money. being wrong daily results in huge losses. the spreads alone between buy and ask already puts you in the hole YET i managed to beat the odds by a large margin. You do know I made the same long shot bet late Friday? Am i already wrong? Obsessive behavior like yours and aahmichael is not going to make YOUR bets profitable. Try spending time on your own best and dare to post it.

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      • Gary Lewis says:

        I think XuWu, through his (and others) charts show a good argument that we will have wave 5 of 1 on Monday. My fib projections only show move to 268.22. Not enough in it for me to play. If it pulls back to under 264 *SPY) I’ll play wave 3 on the bull side. If Holly wins and we drop, I’ll reevaluate. Holly, you ought to show some charts to back up your predictions. No way that one can evaluate talk and/or the news of the day. Thanks

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  7. Gary Lewis says:

    Some of the arguments seem compelling but when I filter out the noise, I still need to keep in mind this weekly line chart of SPY and follow these parameters until resistance is broken. https://www.tradingview.com/x/baOqxmpi/ Longer term, looking for 250 or lower.

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  8. phil1247 says:

    Memory Lane Redux:

    went back to 2009
    just before and after the 666 SPX low
    to see who was here then

    looked at about 5 days of posts …. only 70 to 100 then even on the weekend

    out of 400 or so posts at that time
    only Bud is posting now

    there was H .. who could be HD
    there was Lee…. who probably is Lee X

    thats it

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    • You have to know who to look for Phil. “CN” is my fourth handle here at Tony’s. A few of us go back to the hothead Forkoholic serge days, which predates $SPX 666 by two or three years.

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    • Lee X says:

      Yep
      Dr CL also

      Think I started visiting here in 2006 perhaps but certainly 2007 after checking Tonys stuff out on Stockcharts.com

      The names change but the BS remains the same 🙂

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      • BS remains the same to sure, Lee. That BS has had a few check out and not check back in. rc1969, Laurent, impulsive, and a few others I’d like to see back. Steve the 5 wave model guy – I wonder if he is still here under a different name? It was nice seeing S2 pop back in a few days ago. I remember just lee also. Sure miss that guy 🙂

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        • fionamargaret says:

          I was there too, same name as now, but did not post very often. Did mention to Tony that I thought we had just entered a new bull market….tenor again…
          I found Tony’s place by asking around for a mathematician who correlated his ideas to the market…only Tony was recommended, and Market Oracle was kind enough to send some of his back articles.

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          • Oh, How I remember those days Fiona! You used to dance around the site in hotpants, singing sin^2(theta) + cos^2(theta) = 1 in soprano, mouthing cosmic derivations and holding a balloon. Sigh. You’re older now and shuffle about in evening gowns, and throw your hands up in the air in fancy Pavrotti impersonations. So much talent. I hope to God you don’t plan to get the operatic waddles down perfectly.

            (Of course, I make things up unabashedly. 🙂 This happens to me on fine Spring mornings, while I drink my first cup of tea).

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          • fionamargaret says:

            Oh Joseph you really want to define sine and cosine by trigonometric rations (which can become circular reasoning) when there are sequences and series in a kaleidoscope of patterns and formulae which enrich the soul….
            Do like short skirts still….it is only nine years, so not quite dotage…maybe I joined OEW at five…..but always find your notes fun….Spring is a lovely season xx

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        • stcoleridge says:

          My favorite was the serially uncheerful Erka.

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    • soulsurfer says:

      Can’t claim I was there in 2009, but been following Tony since 2010/2011; and actively engaged since then too. Became an OEW member, and owe him a hellalot 😉

      Like

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