Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go kind of day, DOW +239

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6% on the day. US index futures were higher. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims reached a 50-year low and durable goods orders were higher. The market opened at SPX 2654 and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2639 yesterday. By 11am the SPX hit 2664. Then after a pullback to SPX 2654 again by 11:30 the market moved even higher. At 3pm the SPX hit 2676, then pulled back to close at 2667.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.85%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2656 and 2632 pivots., with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP at 8:30 (est. 2.0%), and consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second time this week. Oddly enough, even without any gap down openings, the market is still down for the week. After dropping from SPX 2684 to 2613 by Wednesday, the market rallied back to 2676 today. Has anyone said this is bi-polar activity yet? Wildly swinging days/weeks, going on for three months, all within a 300-point range. Triangle, double-three, still looks like corrective activity. Short term support rises back to the 2656 and 2632 pivots., with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ends the day just below overbought. Best to your GDP trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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211 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Hey everyone is it that hard to go with 2 digits more to point out your “reference points” to the $SPX or other index? Why not say 2670 instead of 70…..shop talk? lol

  2. hohoho598 says:

    Had a good laugh with the posts down below. Laamo showing his true nature, blaming everyone else when things don’t go his way, especially pulling the “R” word, out of context. Then saying sorry and taking a stab again. Good one Laamo, were you an only child or the one the was ignored?

    • vivelaamo says:

      Haha who’s a ho has arrived. I didn’t even say anything to anyone and cowboy came in with a dig at me. Now Mr big shot professional trader has arrived. Are you still loving your V? it’s the only way you can get it up so that makes sense!

      You’re the biggest joke on this blog. Dropping a post here and there to tell everyone they are c**p at trading. What a clown you are. I bet you don’t even trade! Not seen even one attempt to help anybody on this blog.

      Just an old man that worked out how to use the internet. Well done pops. Keep it ‘up’.

      Love the internet!

  3. @ A rather calm day for an option expiration Friday, yet also the typical characteristics of W-4. I originally thought that the market will stage a flat to alternate with the W-2 zigzag (see the chart I posted on my twitter account last night), it nonetheless took more time to paint a triangle. Flat or Triangle, one thing is for sure–the next move will be to resume the prior direction, which is UP.

    @ That said, the retrace bottom of 2658 I predicted last night missed only by one point. The final W-5, which is delayed till Monday, will at least travel the equal distance of W-1 (2693); If it extends, then that would propel SPX to 2708 area.

    @ The market activities today proved that the resistance line overhead at 2676 is very strong [61.8% of the decline from 2718 to 2612; & 50% of the decline from 2802 to 2553==NO WONDER], so the market decided to GAP OVER IT next Monday. Betting on this, I bought a large chunk of 268 calls (SPY, expires Monday) and will hold it over the weekend. I rarely hold any option positions overnight, unless I am certain that the next trading day would be a big gap-up opening.

    Best to your trading.

  4. H D says:

    Did we get a WROC signal this week? :mrgreen: HAGWE Tony and all.

  5. Holly Silver says:

    Re-entered PUTS about 15K worth and will decide to add more or exit on Monday. Don’t want to get caught with a major external announcement over weekend. This seems to be the tightest daily move for a very long time.

    Eye of the storm?

  6. 30 minutes to go, unless something happens soon. Its a tie and rescheduled for Monday

  7. rabbittrader1 says:

    Schizophrenic, Bi-Polar, Manic Depressive Market, like Mad Hatter Tea Party. Rabbit

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Bears will crash and burn!

    Have a good weekend all!

  9. Gary Lewis says:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/uVAt3lDW/ Once again, bonds faced the precipice but held on for dear life. 10 year is easing back as well and as a result, stocks are calm, with an upward bias. I think that there might be a bit of PPT or other money preventing yields to get out of hand. Higher rates are sure to wreak havoc on world economies. Stopped and reversed at 117 and had been thinking about closing the bull position, but my internal indicators present a rather bullish picture. WOndering if the Fed might not raise rates next week, as everyone is expecting . They probably will, but if they didn’t, I wouldn’t be surprised. That surely would be the end of wave 4 and on to the next move higher in stocks and bonds.

  10. Theodore Lerts says:

    Rally time

  11. gary61b says:

    Squirrel opener today? have not seen the Lunker all day.

  12. phil1247 says:

    lots of hoopla this week about 3% treasury note armageddon

    face ripper squeeze possible if ext short breaks

    • fotis2 says:

      I lost count how many ”analysts” were calling for a crash if 3 was hit even my fav Cathy Lien

    • Holly Silver says:

      So many momentum indicators about to hit. AMZN top should be 1700. 10 year note for a full year ago had a target of 3.11%. DOW has a 50% retrace from momentum chart. The lows expected is 23,225. While to dollar is in no-mans land a spike higher from the 90 level with trade wars going on will spook the hell out of the market. Dollar since the spike move in mid-2014 has retraced 50%. If the other 6 nations aren’t granted favors count on May 1st adding the EU to the list. We will soon be out of earnings season so the distraction will be what? You do see the triangle. It can’t seem to break the ever tighter pattern. No concerns? Earnings events do push markets at least for the immediate knee jerk reaction. While some very prominent key index stocks either were flat or had a 6 percent upside yesterday the overnight euphoria faded quickly. Sorry but i deal in human nature. This is telling me we have not seen the bottom and i suspect it goes another 10 percent down pretty quickly once it starts. I made my profits these last 2 plus months exclusively on this assumption.

      I do believe TONY is not seeing any sign of a resumed bull here. I guess people use his advise when it fits their own. AT a minimum we should test the 258-7 area again.

      Mark this coincidence move down: (IF) May 1st starts the trade war with the EU the market will NOT IGNORE IT. It would be close to impossible to get any traction till we get that swoon first. Got it! I find it illogical and down right foolish to think a market built on earnings and projections would ignore historic proof that 6 months down the road havoc is created in the world stage. If we do see May 1st come and go (with tariffs) with no real market implication I will stop arguing this point. This weekend should set it up. I assume talks will either be fruitful or not before Monday.

  13. gary61b says:

    ES magnets at 2654.75, and a few others, the blue dotted lines… https://gyazo.com/2f56a9c1418eb5f742c7a856db5ffc94

  14. rd3777 says:

    Lots of 5 down all ready…just waiting for wave 2’s to finish. Put a fork in this Bull.

  15. Holly Silver says:

    Sold all my puts hoping to reenter end of day or Monday depending on market action. Obviously this is not a breakout event. the amount of downward pressure is still suggesting we have not seen the bottom yet. If this is a 21 day retrace off lows we have till Wednesday of next week. I expect action to start at open Monday. Maybe even later day but that option looks less likely.

    • alot of people expecting higher from here. could be. This last up from 2659 did enough for the minimum requirement. break the lows of today and we could swoosh down. will be an interesting day. im holding short for the moment. So bears are in trouble LOL

    • Holly Silver says:

      Seems as if the ever tighter triangle formation refuses to break away. Time however will make that impossible as the tighter range gets narrower still. While the market hasn’t yet revealed the direction the fact that great earnings only stalled the drop seems to suggest institutional pressure is much greater on the downside. I still see a break below the bottom formation even though most assume it will hold. 258-257 is the area that needs to hold and rebound off of. I actually think we don’t even test that range for a full day before it breaks below. That’s why I am jumping in and out of Puts and losing money in the process. I am ONLY looking for a homerun bet. Greedy when times dictate. I have to take the shot. it worked enough times so far for me to play with my winnings.

      As we speak we are approaching yesterdays highs at 2674 on SPX.

  16. Not sure if “the powers that be” want this market to pull back yet.HYG took a little drop,the 30 min chart lost its stochastic,fell to support.Now back near the high.A drop below 85.60 would be bearish for stocks in general(I think).Pinball.

    • Ashley says:

      I say they just hold it in this range today and I see 2700 for the close today… Next week??? We will be close to exiting the asteroid belt and then we see if they can defy the laws of math and gravity and enter the next orbit higher up out in space….

  17. gary61b says:

    ES long off of the 2658.5 HWB, and 86.25 T, 54 is to watch

  18. jobjas says:

    NDX with all the good earnings report

  19. from 2612 is that only 1 wave up to the 2676 area? if so , i wonder if we need 1 more up before we roll over? I guess we will find out today

  20. 2659 is the w-4 low, one point higher than my prediction, now the market is in the last impulsive rise to 2700.

    • Simon s says:

      Can you please post a chart with your over all wave count and where we are and headed? Thank you

    • fionamargaret says:

      I think a DB with the low is the best case scenario……
      Kudos to Jimmy C for his call….you got to love the man…lived in his car until he got his chance…..passion….

    • Theodore Lerts says:

      I’ve lost track of your count. I think I’m reading it as W-1 will top around 2700 today or monday, followed by a W-2 correction? If that’s the case what’s your target for W-2 correction?

      ——————-

      April 26, 2018 at 6:33 pm
      I am a day-trader, and I am positioned for the 3 of 3 [at least 30+ point move in one direction]

      April 26, 2018 at 5:06 pm
      The market is at the 4th wave of 3rd of W-1. Still a long way to go for the bulls; this entire impulsive wave won’t top out until filling the gap at 2812

      April 26, 2018 at 2:58 pm
      On second thought, the top of W-1 won’t complete until 2712, by Monday. Tomorrow will be another 20+ points up-day.

      April 26, 2018 at 2:50 pm
      This entire wave structure targets over 2800, by the end of this month.

  21. jobjas says:

    US dollar index

  22. fotis2 says:

    There’s an old saying here in Greece a good morning foretells a good day and vice versa this isn’t looking good for Bulls am out.

  23. E says:

    No change to my target. 2450 may 11.

  24. Jack kendo says:

    — AAPL

    initial target: cut the apple in half

  25. fionamargaret says:

    I am long oil….UWT…up to 72/74…then 80/100
    Short the indices….SPXS, TZA, SDOW, SQQQ….and short the banks FAZ…
    Did I not suggest prime real estate…x

  26. Jack kendo says:

    join the host to the b-camp, he changed the count from bull to bear over the weekend. i changed over night, all in for —QQQ.
    sucks

    C= 4.618 X A
    cheers!

  27. Page says:

    Be careful longs, the markets will close RED today.
    Buy the dips and sell the rips are in play these days.

  28. Jack kendo says:

    added to the positions for the 3rd time at open pop 2676.
    rsi –
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/67036679;
    cheers!

  29. fotis2 says:

    Holly how do you play the latest Kim Jong and China big pals now all in long 3000 here we come?Told ya just follow the chart .

  30. Markets ready to explode!
    NKorea an SKorea have agreed to work towards end of war and complete denuclearization.
    People tired of winning yet?

    • Lee X says:

      Nobel Peace Prize and a spot on Mt Rushmore

    • tommyboys says:

      Stockman 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼… Couple months ago the “then” libby warped fake news narrative was Trump gonna cause nuclear holocaust & WW3, and the markets would crash because of it – which just followed the negative coverage on Middle Class tax cuts LOL. Now you won’t hear a peep about his tough stance against that psycho and another multi-generational win. If they do offer any credit it’ll be sunken in myriad fake negative points they’ll push. They hate him cause he’s against the well entrenched & well compensated crooked establishment. This is the biggest deal in generations and they’re brushing over it. If there is real follow through North Korean’s will be naming their kids Trump .

    • aahmichael says:

      • Saddam was a Bush vendetta.
        Gaddaffi was a BO/Clinton disaster – “Arab Spring”.
        While the news is positive, no way KJU gets away scott free with his atrocities unless he gets billions and his own island. The “peace” may be linked to a lot of conditions for him.
        Regardless, he may die a horrible death as a result of his actions; however, history shows that only those who STAYED in power got away with atrocities (Stalin, Mao, PoPot, Castro). Some/FBI say that Hitler got away, too. Therefore, the news comes with many grains of salt. He’s probably playing chess; agreeing to disagree later.
        Therefore, I don’t think the news will matter. Action overnight and this am looks like this bull is challenged. In a true bull, we’d be WAY UP on all earnings and NK/SK news.
        My ST indicators have all turned (-); they were (+) since yesterday/overnight.

        • Unless we close and stay above 2670, the /ES is looking (-).

        • aahmichael says:

          The point is that both Saddam and Gaddaffi would still be alive and in power if they had nukes. Also, if Assad had nukes, then there would have been no US missiles flying in 2 weeks ago. There is zero chance that NK will ever give up its nukes. KJU is just posturing to have sanctions removed. KJU is also in position to dictate what Trump does with Iran. If Trump pulls out of that deal, then KJU will walk away from any negotiations.
          “Kim may be evil, but he’s not stupid — or suicidal. He’s stringing Trump along, making vague promises that he has no intention of keeping. And Trump, the rube who thinks he’s a sophisticate, shows every sign of falling for the bait.” – @MaxBoot

  31. floyd drummer says:

    thanks tony!

    you are greatly appreciate.

  32. vivelaamo says:

    Been so busy totally missed Nasdaq bounced exactly at the trendline from Brexit lows. Perfect setup!

    Surprised nobody mentioned it on here.

    Good day all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Beethoven considered this his finest achievement, so feel free to suggest this as such, to a group of musicians…..if you have a bunch of spare time and a willing ear….x

      • Ashley says:

        Stuck here but here’s the best bullish view I have.
        http://schrts.co/Mkykiu
        SPX chart is who knows???
        http://schrts.co/Ba6jFy
        COMPQ closed bearish, earnings blow out bullish, futures down \O/ ????
        http://schrts.co/NXTUvx

        • fionamargaret says:

          Nice charts Ashley…looks somewhat like aerodynamics, but really clever…
          I see more like abc’s bitcoin chart…..

          • Ashley says:

            BTC=SCAM in my eyes LOL

            THANKS just got coloring privileges in the Asylum…..

            My eyes are good now, granny went blind and papa was certified schizo in 74 after the war when I was 5…

            My point is WE all weigh the preponderance of the evidence in different ways

            • fionamargaret says:

              I thought it clever you had caught the spirit and movement of the market in your charts Ashley, thus the reference to aerodynamics. Nothing derisive.
              I tried to make you laugh at how feeble my chart would look.
              I am totally a number, sequence person but appreciate when folks take the time to show me charts, diagrams, ideas etc.
              I hope you do well….x

  33. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • cj32 says:

    • floyd drummer says:

      thx CBZ,

      thx for your perspectives and insights. …greatly appreciated.

      aren’t some smaller simple (….not complex) ABC waves just as easy? ….perhaps not the A, …but B (may, ..or may not tradeable), …but C, at least a (partial) trade should be available, …no?

      my preference is to trade more than 15% of total time.
      in poker, …a great hand can lose and a poor hand can win: you have to play your hand, …you have to trade what is in front of you, …and you do not know what actually is in front of you until you have played it.

      i trade a lot, .. i might keep trades very small until i sense my set-ups that i can trade in size, …but i trade a lot for the experience, …and flow.
      (…even a small trade keeps it very real).

      keep posting

  34. What is interesting is that if you excluded the island top which went to a new high,it has the look of a triangle itself.

  35. Jack kendo says:

    a less bullish alternate.

    cheers!

    • Ashley says:

      Ground Control to Major Tom
      Ground Control to Major Tom
      Take your protein pills and put your helmet on
      Ground Control to Major Tom (ten, nine, eight, seven, six)
      Commencing countdown, engines on (five, four, three)
      Check ignition and may God’s love be with you (two, one, liftoff)

      This is Ground Control to Major Tom
      You’ve really made the grade
      And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear
      Now it’s time to leave the capsule if you dare
      “This is Major Tom to Ground Control
      I’m stepping through the door
      And I’m floating in a most peculiar way
      And the stars look very different today
      For here
      Am I sitting in a tin can
      Far above the world
      Planet Earth is blue
      And there’s nothing I can do

      Though I’m past one hundred thousand miles
      I’m feeling very still
      And I think my spaceship knows which way to go
      Tell my wife I love her very much she knows
      Ground Control to Major Tom
      Your circuit’s dead, there’s something wrong
      Can you hear me, Major Tom?
      Can you hear me, Major Tom?
      Can you hear me, Major Tom?
      Can you “Here am I floating ’round my tin can
      Far above the moon
      Planet Earth is blue
      And there’s nothing I can do”

      “BiPolar” @ the 50, enjoy!!! .)

  36. Holly Silver says:

    Looking at futures it doesn’t seem to be catching a big move yet. if open is shallow i will hold onto my Puts and assume final drop happens news week. Till tomorrow.

    • Holly Silver says:

      https://www.thelocal.de/20180426/merkel-heads-for-tough-talks-with-trump-hoping-to-prevent-trade-war

      Whatever happens between now and Tuesday it seems logical to assume a trade war with the EU will start. May 12th is the day trump threatened to tear up the Iran deal. in May go away, is a warning most should heed especially if your a bull.

      The desperation from France and Germany over no deal with Trump strongly suggests China and the EU will retaliate against us. You don’t mess with Merkel.

      Am i the only one thinking Trump is going out of his way to alienate his long standing partners? The swings over last few months I warned right here that EW would not help you. The power of a full blown trade war is something the market can’t dismiss. It will not be slow to decide market action come Tuesday. WATCH! This ASSUMES no deal is struck before deadline.

      Since we are in day 6 of this current drop the whole setup should end by the 10th day. That suggests Wednesday. I no longer see 258 as the first bottom attempt. We should break below that. I believe the only way i made money these last few months is following the actions of trump on trade. May 1st will be a repeat of the January 30th response EXCEPT it will not take 9 days to bottom.

      I was thrown from my complacent assumptions today because the market went totally against my expectation. Not as confident as i was of the final outcome.

      • aahmichael says:

        It’s totally lame for you to come to an EW blog and claim that EW is useless, especially when you have no clue what EW is, or how to use it to assist your trading decisions.

        • Holly Silver says:

          I guess that goes for the 20,000 different views right here by everyone else? Not even TONY can figure it out and has to constantly change it as we go along but your right! I only made a fistful of money and correctly called many of the day moves IN ADVANCE. But hey, get mad if it makes you feel better.

          Just mark this one down so you can call me out on it. Ready, set, go “IF Tuesday’s Trade War is implemented the market would be down probably starting Monday in anticipation and falling hard on Tuesday.” Now I assume i will never win since you will just say it’s coincidence. So many and so lucky. Arguing over a man that made a lot of money because of his assumptions is not the brightest move. If i was YOU I would wait for a colossal failure. Just keep quiet till Tuesday. A deal?

          BTW I never said EW was useless. It certainly is for most on this very blog. Why so many are going against TONY’s own chart and technical prowess is perhaps something YOU should take up with all the others. I said during major reversals it’s impossible to target the change UNTILL it occurs. Remember early 2016? major crash imminent on this board. kinda got that wrong while I used fun-da-mental analysis to tell me it was highly unlikely. i even stated a HUGE rally was to start. WENT AGAINST EW THERE GENIUS!

          • vivelaamo says:

            Trying to figure out who’s crazier. Jk or Holly.

          • aahmichael says:

            1) re: “But hey, get mad if it makes you feel better.”
            I’m not mad. I stated a simple fact. You’ve never seen me type in caps or use exclamation points, which is how anger is expressed online.

            2) re: “BTW I never said EW was useless.”
            Now you’re emulating Trump by denying what you clearly said. Here is exactly what you said: “The swings over last few months I warned right here that EW would not help you.”

            3 ) re: ” Remember early 2016? ”
            Yes, we all remember early 2016. You were bullish and were on the right side of a 300 point rally. Of course, we also all remember that you were subsequently on the wrong side of the post-election 15 month 760 point rally.

            4) re: “i even stated a HUGE rally was to start. WENT AGAINST EW THERE GENIUS!”
            No, you did not go against EW. You went against those who favored what turned out to be the wrong count. (myself included) Congratulations. Hopefully you’ll have another successful call in your future, so you won’t have to keep reminding everyone of the one time back in 2016 when you had a nice call.

            5) re: “I just remembered you use FED reduction of treasury holding to determine stock market movement.”
            No, I don’t use QT to determine stock movement, rather, I acknowledge that QT has created a huge headwind that the market has not been able to overcome, and that headwind is only going to get stronger as time goes on. We don’t have to guess about the strength or duration of this headwind, because the Fed has already laid out its schedule. However, that headwind has been counterbalanced by the tailwind of positive earnings. Put those two opposing forces together, and you end up with a volatile and choppy market that is essentially unchanged YTD.

            6) re: ” I only made a fistful of money and correctly called many of the day moves IN ADVANCE.”
            Here you have made a common amateur mistake of thinking you’re god because of a couple of winning trades. You’re not the only person on this blog who has done extremely well this year playing the short side, ad you’re not the only one who understands what the negative impact of trade wars will be should they occur. However, you’re the only one who has a need to tell everyone about it 10 times every day. There’s an old saying that people with real money never show it. The same is true with successful trading/investing.

        • Holly Silver says:

          I just remembered you use FED reduction of treasury holding to determine stock market movement. Now that’s funny! Tony have a course in that also? BTW, have you actually looked at my calls and bets? Didn’t think so.

          • stcoleridge says:

            I guess self-awareness isn’t your strong suit.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Holly, don’t you have the futures down…..most are saying up…..and I still have AAPL in a sequence down to 145…
            Do take time to watch the Wagner Video of yesterday…it is really enlightening….more to do with Von Karajan and Germany…and watching his expressions and utter exhaustion at the end of the performance makes one understand passion, and how it uses up all one’s resources.
            He was a total perfectionist…..but if one is not, why bother…..x

      • tommyboys says:

        Stop driving yourself nuts. Trump making all the right moves and will slow down global wealth redistribution. Start looking at what he’s doing – and relax.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Maybe you might want to look at the NDX futures.
      Currently up 98 points from the close.

  37. @ Perfect EW counts so far at the mini-level. The market is at the 4th wave of 3rd of W-1. Still a long way to go for the bulls; this entire impulsive wave won’t top out until filling the gap at 2812. Bears had better move away.
    @ Tomorrow will close near the day’s high at 2694, most likely with a last hour short-squeeze & panic buying.
    @ Tomorrow’s 4th wave low would be 2658, BTW.
    Let’s see, how do these classic EW-based projections pan out?

    • NEWBIE says:

      You are the king of wishful thinking. big drop is around the corner.

      • E says:

        Yup. It’s evident to me now that most people on this blog switch positions in a heartbeat. I am staying as a bear with you now, Newbie.

      • E says:

        It’s the larger weekly and monthly structures that are of greatest concern.

      • stcoleridge says:

        So after hours I have the option of selling NDX futures up 1.4% and/or buying Dow or Rut futures marginally lower than the close, courtesy of Johnny Algo. Anyone think that spread will hold at tomorrow’s close?

    • stcoleridge says:

      Amazing how you can be so confidently bearish and then even more confidently bullish within the space of a couple of days.

      • @@ Bullish or Bearish? Give me a break — the current market is in a Major-level corrective wave, which means the wind will change almost every 48-hours. I am a day-trader, and I am positioned for the 3 of 3 [at least 30+ point move in one direction]. The money made by Bulls during the large impulsive third wave with an extended fifth wave [2016-2018] will be dutifully given back during the whipsaw fourth corrective waves, if you still stick with the mind-set of buy and hold.

        @@ Last time I visited this website quite often and did my day-trading was in late 2015 to early 2016, when the market was in another big correction. THAT WAS FUN! Why? because, based on my 25+ years of trading and 10+ years of trading with EW, the best & clearest EW chart pattern will be presented quite often during the decline. So, I only day-trade during major correction period, and once the market establishes a pattern, I will use my long-investment account to buy some ETFs and hold them for long-term.

        @@ Since you asked, I am going to tell you–EW-wise, the market is in the final W-4 and the final W-5 will be coming shortly. Until then, the market is bound to whipsaw between 2873 and 2534, probably for another three months.

        @@ Now, I am not bullish, and I am not bearish, I am just MONKEYISH!! I will jump around with the market. That is so fun! Over the last two weeks, from the 2718 top, till today, everyday, I see an average 30% profit to my aggressive investment account. If this pattern continues, I will be happily retiring shortly.

        BEST TO YOUR TRADING & sympathize with your frustration.
        Been there, done that! NO MORE.

    • What wave structure are you actually talking about? What is W1?

  38. quickrick38 says:

    At close, ES / SPX hit the 61.8 retracement of the drop from 2717. After hours…due to AMZN, Nasdaq is now well beyond the 61.8.

  39. rd3777 says:

    Almost finished…JPN225

  40. 123 abc says:

    Thank you for the Tony Thursday update! 😉

  41. microsoft down 1.6 starbucks down 2.3
    Amazon up 90 at the moment intell up.

    What will this all mean by tomorrows open. Stay tuned.

    Have a good night all

  42. Holly Silver says:

    I confess. I called it a bi-polar market. Since AMZN is up big time after hours i expect a big follow thru on rest of market (if) earnings is the primary push. Could be a big move tomorrow shaking out all bears.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Bullish case: Next upside target is 2740-2750. SB the last one also before another vicious drop. Not declaring this bear run is over but it looks likely.

    • E says:

      I doubt it. There is a lot more to this than AMZN. We also watched what happened with all the banks, GOOG and CAT despite beating wall street. I still support your bearish views from earlier today and Tony’s point that we are still in correction. SPY and DOW symmetries are all wrong. Nasdaq is still playing out a large H&S pattern that could drop any day.

      • phil1247 says:

        agree E

        NQ still has to rally even more to 6761 just to get to the short entry

      • Holly Silver says:

        I just don’t see an immediate drop from here. Next week? In fact the close tomorrow should indicate just how strong this up trend is. I never try to “hold out” on a directional bet. If tomorrow acts like it stalled I will reconsider. I am assuming I will dump all my Puts if the open is strong. If it weakens enough thru the day i reenter. I will lose over 30% of my money by exiting. I am playing for a deep drop, not a trend. I have to see the setup again. This is a difficult market and a bi-polar one fro sure. Lets see if it took its Lithium pills.

  43. phil1247 says:

    Camp Freddie

    you are right .. he is a flip flopper
    he said he never mentioned crash …… right ?

    Jack kendo says:
    March 25, 2018 at 10:54 pm
    perfect CRASH scenario, with strong rally first:
    https://gyazo.com/e9f145c389bb03f5f3ab00f55552f069

  44. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. I still think this will eventually end bad for the bears that don’t take profits. It always does.

    • travis01 says:

      Well of course Capt Obvious. In a 9 yr bull any bear call that doesn’t cash out loses. Sometimes I think you just type to seem relevant.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Sometimes I think you ignore every post and just read mine to have a dig at me.

        Then what to expect from a racist.

        • Viv:
          How could racism enter the picture when no one even knows what race you are unless that is a real picture of you? I am not even sure what gender you are. For that matter, what race is Travis?

          • vivelaamo says:

            He is as much a racist as I am a kid living in my parents basement.

            • travis01 says:

              You moron, I have no idea where you are from or your race. You have called me racist names before and often threatened to give me a beating if I fly over to meet you which is comical at best. I don’t know Newbie or anyone else here. Honestly I don’t even know if you are a woman or man. What I can tell you is taking pot shots all day at others is childish and provides nothing of value. You get feelings hurt when market doesn’t go up so you dig at anyone short and call ppl Einstein and such. But hey you be you!

        • Lee X says:

          Congratulations you’re on the list

      • vivelaamo says:

        That was inappropriate. I take it back. I’m sure you’re not racist. Just ignorant.

        But out of interest. If I seems I post just to seem relevant. What does your boy friend Newbie post for?

        Enlighten me cowboy,

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