Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then selloff, DOW -425

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2682, ticked up to 2684, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2670 yesterday. At 10am consumer confidence and new home sales were reported higher. Just past 11:30 the SPX had dropped to 2661, closing the gap and turning negative. Then after a rally to SPX 2672 by 11:30, the selling accelerated. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2617, the low for the day. Then the market rebounded to close at SPX 2635.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.90%. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude dropped 75 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance now at the 2656 and 2731 pivots.

The market gapped up at the today. Which is nothing unusual these days when considering all the gap openings during the past few months. After running up to yesterday’s high, 2884 v 2683, the market headed south in a hurry. At today’s low the SPX had dropped 67-points, in 5 hours, on no negative news. It must be a correction. Today’s drop increased the probability of the double three scenario posted on the hourly chart. This suggests a retest of the February/April lows should end this Intermediate wave iv correction. Levels of interest, noted over the weekend, are SPX 2586, 2554 and 2533. Short term support drops to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance now at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at the lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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357 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    the short fibs at 52 and 65 were broken and retested
    now 2677 remains ( .618)
    and by coincidence 😉 is the 618 extreme target of ext long
    still bullish above 2660
    head for the hills if that fails because then
    NEWBIE will be on the prowl

  2. fotis2 says:

    SWHTF if ES breaks above 2688

    • phil1247 says:

      spx daily boll bands pinching in now
      this sideways mess should be coming to an end soon

  3. stan911 says:

    Gap left behind on this run up at 2645.50 and 2644.50 and 2606.35 from a while back. Like fotis said needs to stay above 2638. Gap above at 2706.23

  4. phil1247 says:


    i chased at 2656 and glad i did

  5. phil1247 says:

    spx 34 ema is next

  6. to early to pick a close. but at the moment 2658.5 is as good as any. let futures tonight decide which way we go

  7. mcgcapital says:

    Swing short set up on FTSE at 7430.. should hold the 7440 pivot if it’s going to work. Double top with the other day… huge rally off the low and ready for a retrace. Month end too which sometimes sees the move of the month faded. Really shocked how much it’s outperformed the US.. to me it looks like we’ve had our rally in time for potentially a sell in May. Not sure what to make of the lack of rally on US indices

    • fionamargaret says:

      Cramer’s note of last night suggested not getting sucked into today’s fervour…down tomorrow….
      I feel perhaps it is the end of the month day today…..thanks McG….
      Oil staying up has a lot to do with Iran and Venezuela….cut off Iran’s supply and we are right up there and more….do the Israelis join in….

  8. Jack kendo says:

    i am a bull, but always review to see what bear in mind, so my profits can be protected. especially now when Tony has both alternate counts as bearish count.


  9. vivelaamo says:

    Once above 2715 we can really get this party started

  10. CampFreddie says:

    Its never perfect but I like the look of this bullish set-up that has built over the last 3/4 days. Targeting 2782/85. (sharp move expected) Aimho. Glta

  11. alexh110 says:

    This uptrend has a chance to continue until next Tuesday (to make time symmetry); followed by a 10 day downtrend into the final Int iv low.

  12. Jack kendo says:

    bear’s dream.

    i am a bull,

  13. rd3777 says:

    Is it reversal day?? When it does…say good-bye to the Bull…

  14. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Trannies now down 175–low of the day is 35 points away.If THAT breaks and keeps falling,well…let me get my flipping coin.Later all.

  15. Holly Silver says:

    Maybe my bearish bets are clouding my judgement but today looks like a fake out move. very weak considering the absolutely critical need to show a breakout. this was forced at the start and looks to be slip sliding away. Too early to tell but it i not indicative of a reversal in trend.

    I see 2635 as the line in the sand for this move to stay in it’s uptrend. That’s a long 20 plus SPX down just to test. Might not know till end of day.

  16. micky says:

    64 area of interest again, another resistance at 78 area ,one step at a time.

  17. phil1247 says:

    dollar yen is screaming up in extensions into its target and short entry

    you are trading it now i hope after all that sideways.. chop

    also its killing gold ………..if you like correlations

  18. learnedmylesson25 says:

    I totally give up.Either HYG did a fake breakdown (thanks to whoever)or THIS is a fakeout,or the next move is the fakeout.No coincidence that Draghi talks and Euro stocks reverse.Yesterday I watched DJT signal a possible rally,today DJT is DOWN 43–after being down 140 early.I mention this only to give a possible clue to SPX moves.HYG shouldn’t have broken under the 100d earlier in the week and after doing that,shouldn’t have snapped back over it.Time to just watch for a while.GL all.
    Breaking news:Gartman was just on FOX and is still bearish.

    • Ashley says:

      Could be right this time, Bulls are not in the clear yet but It sucks holding shorts here… That may be why they work, always darkest before the dawn and all that mumbo jumbo…

      I say it just keeps creeping up real slow up and out then we will see maybe what this market looks like outside that mess of a triangle…..

    • E says:

      April 18 thru 24 was likely just a single wave down. Two more to go.

    • CampFreddie says:

      News, re-Gartman not “just breaking” … see my post below.

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        He was just”somewhat live” on the tube.Saw him say it myself–which I prefer.Thanks though CF.

  19. gary61b says:

    ES is not bouncing clean at levels I suspect the full wave from 2718 levels may change that correlation… but 49 in the ES is the Obama red line

  20. if from 2717 to 2612 was a of C
    b of c at .50is 2665
    .618is 2677. Thats in my opinion the last stand for the bears
    then c of C equals a at 2560-2572 in line were i was looking for this to end. Long day. see what happens

  21. E says:

    I still don’t see this going up in any big way until May 11 and I’m thinking it might continue down even after that point for some time. Reversal has been to weak and strange things happening with earnings reactions. We’ll see what Tony has to say tonight. I’m more with Holly at this point.

  22. elmer510 says:

    Can a corrective minute wave (-2%) last one day, or is one day to short for minute wave?

    I’m glad if anyone could tell me – it’s all about Oslo Stockmarket which is really running high at the moment. Im trying to make a count.

  23. CampFreddie says:

    Bears – maybe time to re-assess ? … Dennis Gartman has just gone short Nasdaq 😀

    … this might be just the catalyst needed for the overdue face-ripper.

  24. fionamargaret says:

    There is a bunch of stops around here with oil…we need to push onwards and upwards in UWT (oil)….70/80/100…not easy, but really profitable….

  25. @ All-in long here (SPXL).
    @ If my count is correct, the market is in the 3 of 3 of 3 of 3. Explosive move upward should begin soon to 2700.
    @ bought short-term calls (SPY, 267, expire 4/27).

  26. Holly Silver says:

    Dark Cloud Clover seen at open. Who gives these candlesticks such names? High reliability and bearish. We should see a sloppy day but one that either builds strong on the downside as the hours progress or end the day down but not by much. Any upside close today is NOT a good sign for MY scenario to work out. I had thought we find the tringle bottom today at around 258 – 254.

    EU is indicating Tariffs on them will be implemented this coming Tuesday.

    • Holly Silver says:

      I added even more Puts for next week. call me crazy but the odds of this day ending positive is small IMO.

      • stan911 says:

        Could get a run up to 2675-77 then down to 2570

        • Holly Silver says:

          I am not a technician in EW so anything’s possible. i am going on my own personal chart recognition and I believe my long assumption will be thrown for a loop if we don’t have a flat or negative close. A marginal move today sets up for a very negative Friday. I had thought today would be the drop and Friday the relief rally. My daily calls is now in question. I still do see currently a nasty early next week. I am talking 3,000 DOW point drops. But today might change all that.

  27. With 15 minutes to open, they can’t gap it up over 2652. So the battle will happen at the open. Implied open at 2652 Should be an interesting day. If a bull want to see a strong impulsive move. Chop chop is still bearish in my opinion. Over 2652. Then 2660 then 2675.;over that bullish.
    Under 2640 bearish. Good luck all

  28. traderlucas says:

    Hi all from Vietnam. MA200 was defended nicely and the market seems to want to breakout. Go long from here and looking for a breakout to 2800s. Hope you all trade well!

  29. phil1247 says:


    bottom line………..
    bull above
    forty nine

  30. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  31. phil1247 says:

    gary lewis

    nice timing on your bond cycle
    …. already initial reload of TBT this am
    could squeeze quite a bit higher if above current levels
    but it is a short entry so i took it

  32. ipman1893 says:

    Dear Tony, hope you are well.

    Can we anticipate the dollar index to be topping soon?
    Since 2017, those two main bear market rallies only up for 3 to 4%.
    Current uptrend has been up for about 3.3%.

    In foreign currencies like AUD, CHF, CAD, GBP,
    Their downtrend has been quite steep in the past week, bottom soon?

    Thank you, Tony wish you everything in good health.

  33. bud67 says:

    Hello…..looking at the SP500 index, There still is a clear uptrend pattern,
    but — it is getting tired/old. the 2570 ish level, needs to hold. Believe it will
    for a bit longer. Now, since I am implying a Bullish tone, your right.
    We should create a 5th wave high, above 2872. Once we see that evolve.
    Then, you can color me, a Bear. But, not until then. Also, given the nearness
    (sp)…of this coming top. Going short after the high has reversed is, what
    I plan to do. My MACD 10,20,4 has not yet reversed to up. That would
    be my signal to prepare to get short. Basically, I am saying, or suggesting.
    Getting short, when it forms, is IMO. The better investment, verse trading long
    for a short period of time….just my way.


    Now, this is my kinda chart. 🙂

  34. Holly Silver says:

    Might be a sloppy day tomorrow. We should however end lower. The last 2 prior drops bottomed around the 10th day. We finished day 5. TONY and many bear camp traders seem adamant that the triangle hold, at least on the first bottoming attempt. 258 seems to once again be consensus.

    What we are facing besides China trade war. Consequence of that trade war seem to have put on hold china’s attempt to reign in debt. May 1st deadline for EU on tariffs. Not a single word from trump or administration that they will waiver the tariffs. Anyone find that strange to wait if they planned on allowing the EU a pass?

    If trump doesn’t announce EU waiver over this weekend, Tuesday May 1st starts the fireworks. I for the life of me can’t imagine trump going after the EU. Reminds me of Germany and Japan attacking the world and almost getting away with it. A 2 front attack on the EU and China? Even I can’t envision Trump taking that action.

    So folks whatever happens between now and the weekend is NOTHING compared to no announcement over the weekend. Yes a quiet weekend will be terrible for this market. Imagine the market opening Monday with the understanding that the EU will be slapped with tariffs on Tuesday.
    If ever you want to see a big crash, regardless of how badly the market has already fared leading into Monday this is it.

    I know many here think my talk of external events is nonsense. I “know” exactly how the street will react.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Think of Trade Wars as rival Mafia gangs trying to take over the same territory. You absolutely know it will end badly and both will get bloodied before it is over.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …and with stocks and bonds both going lower, where is your hedge…except maybe volatility, cash or equity shorts….keep writing…x

      • fionamargaret says:

        You will love this video….for Wagner lovers everywhere….

        • fionamargaret says:

          If you would like to see how much of yourself is involved in having a passion, watch this…
          nice short film of Germany and Von Karajan. I was wrung out watching him.
          Total perfectionist, but what people are left with are the works one leaves behind….x

  35. rd3777 says:

    Any bears left????
    Looks like it’s done…..

  36. fionamargaret says:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-bear-market-for-stocks-lasting-several-months-appears-to-have-begun-2018-04-25?link=MW_popular……Tom McClellan

    Thanks Amateur – Investor

    Thanks Raymond James……Charts of the Week

    Thanks and love to Tony…….and everyone xx

    This is a wonderful rendition of Verdi’s Requiem…Herbert Von Karajan, La Scala etc. very very quiet in the beginning….but glorious. Pavarotti anyone….

  37. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Wonder if the Fed is doing a major taper this week.Basically,bullish technical breakouts are sold and bearish breakdowns are bought.What can you do with that kind of crap?Some real game playing (manipulation) happening.If HYG gets back above 85.60 tomorrow ,all you can do is throw the charts away and either go to 100% cash or go to 100% in equities and wait for the pinball machine to move in your direction so you CAN buy/ sell.Timing this is impossible.Kudlownomics still pushing dollar higher.Good luck all–we need it.

    • aahmichael says:

      The Fed is scheduled to reduce its treasury holdings by $18bn on the 30th. The balance sheet will also show an $8bn reduction of MBS by the 30th as well. Total reduction will be $30bn for the month, but only $26bn will be shown as it takes 2-3 months for the MBS to settle. Therefore, the $8bn reduction of MBS that will show, actually occurred in February.

  38. gary61b says:

    ES I have an A B C D now E up to finish diagonal?https://gyazo.com/3ffb7d0527a029ae86934bc07e8dd273

    • Great job lately Gary. I’m neutral at the moment, see what tomorrow brings. If cash market holds 2652 I will short, Over 2652 next stop probably 2750.

      Good luck all

  39. E says:

    When the tsunami hits, do the little waves really matter anymore?

  40. that was 4 up. mow wave 5 down

  41. When you’re playing granmother’s footsteps….and you get caught.

  42. Holly Silver says:

    The moves have been very predictable. Like i have been saying for many days now. A close slightly higher or lower means one thing for me. Next big drop either tomorrow or thru Friday. Will load up once again on PUTS.

    • vivelaamo says:

      It will carry on trading the range until it doesn’t.

    • E says:

      What makes you think it will drop big Thursday or Friday? I cannot see such short terms moves, only that it must drop more for the larger wave symmetry to play out.

      • Holly Silver says:

        We can immediately have a short term move of say 10 SPX points at the most but the pattern has all along suggested a much lower drop. The 4/19 move till today looks like it is not complete. the wave structure to my eye is all wrong. We have had 10 day drops till now. Not a technician but you will have to ask an EW expert if we can move much higher from here. I see the biggest drop ahead of us. We will know tomorrow. A sustained move higher and i am wrong.

  43. Vishal says:

    From the lows SPX a=c at 2645 for the day

  44. fotis2 says:

    So thats it???What a anticlimax!

  45. phil1247 says:


    NOW do you see 2657 ?

  46. The market bottomed at 2612 [the fifth of C]; sold all my puts and turning bullish now. To 2660 in a couple of days.

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