Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then selloff, DOW -425

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2682, ticked up to 2684, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2670 yesterday. At 10am consumer confidence and new home sales were reported higher. Just past 11:30 the SPX had dropped to 2661, closing the gap and turning negative. Then after a rally to SPX 2672 by 11:30, the selling accelerated. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2617, the low for the day. Then the market rebounded to close at SPX 2635.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.90%. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude dropped 75 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance now at the 2656 and 2731 pivots.

The market gapped up at the today. Which is nothing unusual these days when considering all the gap openings during the past few months. After running up to yesterday’s high, 2884 v 2683, the market headed south in a hurry. At today’s low the SPX had dropped 67-points, in 5 hours, on no negative news. It must be a correction. Today’s drop increased the probability of the double three scenario posted on the hourly chart. This suggests a retest of the February/April lows should end this Intermediate wave iv correction. Levels of interest, noted over the weekend, are SPX 2586, 2554 and 2533. Short term support drops to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance now at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at the lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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357 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Holly Silver says:

    Market can’t seem to behave. My multi-week prediction is on the line here. I expected a very weak showing today. Did have a daily 7 wave advance and filled the gap. Which means we are in no-mans land again.

    BUT I have the secret to this market’s continued health. it isn’t earnings. Watch for any sign that tariffs are going to be reversed. I have next weeks options and I sat on it today which might be my mistake tomorrow.

    All I have to know is if May 1st tariffs go into affect. You know what happened the last time they did.
    I will decide late Friday whether to load up on absurdly OTM puts for expiration May 4th. I mean taking one quarter of my winning these last few months and going for a grand slam home run!

    All know is the EW chart will adjust no matter what the outcome and claim it was always set in stone. Implementations of Tariffs will cause a 3,000 DOW drop next week. I actually expect a HUGE RALLY if Trump reverses his decision on tariffs.

    Tariff no tariff. Step by step, inch by inch. slowly I turn. Off the cliff or not? that is the question.


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