Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -83

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were lower, and the Philly FED was higher. The market opened at SPX 2700, after closing at 2709 yesterday. The decline continued until 10am when the SPX hit 2692 and leading indicators were reported higher. The market then rallied to SPX 2703 by 10:30,a but rolled over to a lower low at SPX 2682 around 1:30. Then the market rallied to SPX 2699 by 3:30 before ending the day at 2693.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds dropped 9 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold slid $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration.

The market gapped down at the open today, traded down to SPX 2682, then tried to rally. At SPX 2682 the market had pulled back 35-points from yesterday’s SPX 2717 high. Thirty-five points also happens to be equal to the previous pullback: SPX 2680-2645. No change in the short term count. Still looks like a Minor 3 underway, albeit quite a choppy one. A drop below 2665, however, would negate the that count. Short term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s lows, then bounced. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

272 Responses to Thursday update

  1. elmer510 says:

    I have one technical question about wave-movements.
    Can a 2% pull back which lasts only one day, be labeled as a minute wave?

    Im trying to make a count from a chart of my domestic stockmarket which obvious is in Minor 3 of IM 5.
    The challenge is possible subdivision of Minor 3.

    Like

  2. Ex President Bush Jr who said “ We owe debt to ourselves” and Ex Vice President Cheney said “ What makes America great, is how Americans are willing to LOWER their lifestyles, to make other nation people have higher lifestyle”

    Added to above thinking, Before 1960’s Americans asked themselves question, “ Am I, doing the right thing” after 1960’s Question Americans asked themselves changed to “ Am I, getting ahead?

    When I read these concepts in college text book recently, I stopped and ponder for moment.

    Federal reserve basically is running the show!

    Americans in large part are just frogs in slow boiling pot of water.

    If Fed fails in its long term, agenda to sell everything to other nations, I think market melt down has good chance. Just too many factors to add up for human mind, it needs super computer to analyze whole complex financial and social makeup.

    International world is very complex!

    Sudden destruction could unfold at any moment.

    No way, too actually predict such black swan events.

    Like

  3. fxaprendiz says:

    Let’s get this straight, guys. We already had a corrective wave of Cycle degree. It ended in 2009. We won’t see another one until way past the year 2030 mark. You uber-bear guys have to accept the fact all you will get until then will be corrections of Intermediate and Primary degree. So do yourselves a favor and stop looking for Cycle degree corrections in the intervening years. Those simply don’t come as often as you may think. 1942… 1976… 2009… Do you seriously expect another one around the corner? I usually just chuckle when I see Cycle degree counts thrown so casually around, but seeing such nonsense of the market being simultaneously in a Secular bull AND a Cycle degree correction was too much.

    Like

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Typo: 1976 should read 1974

      Like

      • I’ll bet that a lot of those posting here were not around in 1974 (Chinese Torture bear) and 1987 Crash (thought it would be end of my career)…where the ONLY thing that went up was BONDS….Gold did not work as a “non-correlated asset” (I was long and wrong)…Tony always has good perspectives on the market. BTW, for those who use Tom DeMark’s TD Countdown…Monday might complete the 9 day set up with a drop to 2656 or lower.

        Like

      • tommyboys says:

        Excellent post fx. Not sure I’ve seen you here before but man does this site need another voice of experience and reason. Pretty obvious by the emotional and repetative posts many here are inexperienced or immature regarding markets. Tony has been the ultimate voice of reason but welcome as we need more.

        Like

    • Holly Silver says:

      The so called super cycle will end badly and it will not be after 2021. I suspect it happens sooner than that still. If technicians can see 2016 as the crash cycle when in fact it was the complete opposite who can state such strong assumptions here? Ludicrous. The debt level, deflationary pressures, and world wide corruption combined with the largest disparity between super rich and everyone else is ALREADY at the peak. Absolutely no way! Fanatical thinking to detach yourself from the real world and expect some secret built in code to pre-determine our fate. Secret code is the exact definition since it changes dramatically over time. Woops, no crash instead a huge rally? Gimme a break.

      Mark me down as a strong dissenter. Too many rigid thinkers that believe they discovered the holy grail. I find this amusing because in 2016 I was on the other end of the argument. Doom and Gloom, crash imminent. Boy how a few years have changed the charts so dramatically its insane. I am neither a bear of bull. I am a realist. i used my analytical skills and common sense thru my career and I am not about to discard it here.

      Like

    • 1974, not 1976. Also Major wave corrections will occur.

      Like

    • mcgcapital says:

      The problem I have with all long term analysis is it seems quite subjective to me in the sense that often the 2000-03 bear is viewed differently to the 2007-09 one despite being a similar magnitude. We’ve had basically 30+ years of interest rates being artificially suppressed.. that’s been a tailwind for stocks. If that’s no longer the case then I’m not sure what that means for stocks, but it’s probably not positive. What I do know is if there’s a recession sometime soon with these valuations and this amount of debt in the global economy, I don’t want to be betting that any decline will be limited to 25% on the basis of some Elliott wave labelling as it’s unlikely to be the case. I’m not a perma bear by any means, I think innovation continues, economies grow, and therefore earnings will grow on a 30, 50 or 100 year time frame. But there’s some huge imbalances in the present system and it probably won’t be pretty when it unwinds

      Like

      • fxaprendiz says:

        mcg, actually to me the last correction of Cycle degree encompassed both bear periods you mention. 2000-03 being wave A and 2007-09 being wave C. I just mentioned 2009 as the end year of the Cycle.
        All your arguments are valid from a fundamental perspective, but the thing with markets is that they are driven mainly by sentiment so it may be years before sentiment matches fundamentals. As I have mentioned before, I’m expecting a correction of Primary degree by circa 2022 which should be +20% and spark a brief recession. But anything resembling the 2000-2009 years should wait until after 2032, then sentiment will catch up with fundamentals and all the excesses will be corrected.

        Like

  4. torehund says:

    $Bdi, looks like its going to do a whoe lot more, didnt crosscheck the Tbt, but…

    Like

  5. There are those who are bears and those who are bulls. There are demorratts who will blame republicans, there are republicans who will blame democrats. Many are biased. I have been whipsawed a lot over the past few weeks. Lost 100k. Every tick on sp I win or loose 1k. Not really sure were we are headed. Triangle up to 2725-2740 seems reasonable. Not a big fan of the secular bull. But what do I k ow

    Like

  6. R D. says:

    Do you think the JPN225 will rally?
    ‪”Big Progress” – North Korea To Halt Nuclear, ICBM Tests; Dismantle Test Site; Pursue Peace | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-20/north-koreas-kim-says-mission-complete-will-abandon-nuke-tests-seek-peace‬

    Like

  7. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    Like

    • Does coolbiz ever sell premium and volatility using options or just use them for directional trades?

      Like

      • cj32 says:

        He does both, sells many SPX, AMZN and BKNG puts in a bull leg and opposite in a bear leg against his holdings and naked calls or puts. His simple goal is to be in the same direction as the market for over 95% of times relating to his trades.
        If wrong, takes a small loss swiftly and changes direction instantly basis price action.

        Like

    • fxaprendiz says:

      So many wrong things with the first paragraph, I don’t know where to start with. Let’s just say this coolbiz1 really doesn’t know what a wave of Cycle degree is.

      Like

  8. Thanks Tony
    Not easy to predict,in any timeframe
    DOW
    https://invst.ly/78eqm
    https://invst.ly/78erf

    Like

  9. Jack kendo says:

    will this bullish count work for oew?

    Like

Comments are closed.