Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -83

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were lower, and the Philly FED was higher. The market opened at SPX 2700, after closing at 2709 yesterday. The decline continued until 10am when the SPX hit 2692 and leading indicators were reported higher. The market then rallied to SPX 2703 by 10:30,a but rolled over to a lower low at SPX 2682 around 1:30. Then the market rallied to SPX 2699 by 3:30 before ending the day at 2693.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.80%. Bonds dropped 9 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold slid $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration.

The market gapped down at the open today, traded down to SPX 2682, then tried to rally. At SPX 2682 the market had pulled back 35-points from yesterday’s SPX 2717 high. Thirty-five points also happens to be equal to the previous pullback: SPX 2680-2645. No change in the short term count. Still looks like a Minor 3 underway, albeit quite a choppy one. A drop below 2665, however, would negate the that count. Short term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s lows, then bounced. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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272 Responses to Thursday update

  1. elmer510 says:

    I have one technical question about wave-movements.
    Can a 2% pull back which lasts only one day, be labeled as a minute wave?

    Im trying to make a count from a chart of my domestic stockmarket which obvious is in Minor 3 of IM 5.
    The challenge is possible subdivision of Minor 3.

  2. Ex President Bush Jr who said “ We owe debt to ourselves” and Ex Vice President Cheney said “ What makes America great, is how Americans are willing to LOWER their lifestyles, to make other nation people have higher lifestyle”

    Added to above thinking, Before 1960’s Americans asked themselves question, “ Am I, doing the right thing” after 1960’s Question Americans asked themselves changed to “ Am I, getting ahead?

    When I read these concepts in college text book recently, I stopped and ponder for moment.

    Federal reserve basically is running the show!

    Americans in large part are just frogs in slow boiling pot of water.

    If Fed fails in its long term, agenda to sell everything to other nations, I think market melt down has good chance. Just too many factors to add up for human mind, it needs super computer to analyze whole complex financial and social makeup.

    International world is very complex!

    Sudden destruction could unfold at any moment.

    No way, too actually predict such black swan events.

  3. fxaprendiz says:

    Let’s get this straight, guys. We already had a corrective wave of Cycle degree. It ended in 2009. We won’t see another one until way past the year 2030 mark. You uber-bear guys have to accept the fact all you will get until then will be corrections of Intermediate and Primary degree. So do yourselves a favor and stop looking for Cycle degree corrections in the intervening years. Those simply don’t come as often as you may think. 1942… 1976… 2009… Do you seriously expect another one around the corner? I usually just chuckle when I see Cycle degree counts thrown so casually around, but seeing such nonsense of the market being simultaneously in a Secular bull AND a Cycle degree correction was too much.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Typo: 1976 should read 1974

      • I’ll bet that a lot of those posting here were not around in 1974 (Chinese Torture bear) and 1987 Crash (thought it would be end of my career)…where the ONLY thing that went up was BONDS….Gold did not work as a “non-correlated asset” (I was long and wrong)…Tony always has good perspectives on the market. BTW, for those who use Tom DeMark’s TD Countdown…Monday might complete the 9 day set up with a drop to 2656 or lower.

      • tommyboys says:

        Excellent post fx. Not sure I’ve seen you here before but man does this site need another voice of experience and reason. Pretty obvious by the emotional and repetative posts many here are inexperienced or immature regarding markets. Tony has been the ultimate voice of reason but welcome as we need more.

    • Holly Silver says:

      The so called super cycle will end badly and it will not be after 2021. I suspect it happens sooner than that still. If technicians can see 2016 as the crash cycle when in fact it was the complete opposite who can state such strong assumptions here? Ludicrous. The debt level, deflationary pressures, and world wide corruption combined with the largest disparity between super rich and everyone else is ALREADY at the peak. Absolutely no way! Fanatical thinking to detach yourself from the real world and expect some secret built in code to pre-determine our fate. Secret code is the exact definition since it changes dramatically over time. Woops, no crash instead a huge rally? Gimme a break.

      Mark me down as a strong dissenter. Too many rigid thinkers that believe they discovered the holy grail. I find this amusing because in 2016 I was on the other end of the argument. Doom and Gloom, crash imminent. Boy how a few years have changed the charts so dramatically its insane. I am neither a bear of bull. I am a realist. i used my analytical skills and common sense thru my career and I am not about to discard it here.

    • 1974, not 1976. Also Major wave corrections will occur.

    • mcgcapital says:

      The problem I have with all long term analysis is it seems quite subjective to me in the sense that often the 2000-03 bear is viewed differently to the 2007-09 one despite being a similar magnitude. We’ve had basically 30+ years of interest rates being artificially suppressed.. that’s been a tailwind for stocks. If that’s no longer the case then I’m not sure what that means for stocks, but it’s probably not positive. What I do know is if there’s a recession sometime soon with these valuations and this amount of debt in the global economy, I don’t want to be betting that any decline will be limited to 25% on the basis of some Elliott wave labelling as it’s unlikely to be the case. I’m not a perma bear by any means, I think innovation continues, economies grow, and therefore earnings will grow on a 30, 50 or 100 year time frame. But there’s some huge imbalances in the present system and it probably won’t be pretty when it unwinds

      • fxaprendiz says:

        mcg, actually to me the last correction of Cycle degree encompassed both bear periods you mention. 2000-03 being wave A and 2007-09 being wave C. I just mentioned 2009 as the end year of the Cycle.
        All your arguments are valid from a fundamental perspective, but the thing with markets is that they are driven mainly by sentiment so it may be years before sentiment matches fundamentals. As I have mentioned before, I’m expecting a correction of Primary degree by circa 2022 which should be +20% and spark a brief recession. But anything resembling the 2000-2009 years should wait until after 2032, then sentiment will catch up with fundamentals and all the excesses will be corrected.

  4. torehund says:

    $Bdi, looks like its going to do a whoe lot more, didnt crosscheck the Tbt, but…

  5. There are those who are bears and those who are bulls. There are demorratts who will blame republicans, there are republicans who will blame democrats. Many are biased. I have been whipsawed a lot over the past few weeks. Lost 100k. Every tick on sp I win or loose 1k. Not really sure were we are headed. Triangle up to 2725-2740 seems reasonable. Not a big fan of the secular bull. But what do I k ow

  6. R D. says:

    Do you think the JPN225 will rally?
    ‪”Big Progress” – North Korea To Halt Nuclear, ICBM Tests; Dismantle Test Site; Pursue Peace | Zero Hedge https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-20/north-koreas-kim-says-mission-complete-will-abandon-nuke-tests-seek-peace‬

  7. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • Does coolbiz ever sell premium and volatility using options or just use them for directional trades?

      • cj32 says:

        He does both, sells many SPX, AMZN and BKNG puts in a bull leg and opposite in a bear leg against his holdings and naked calls or puts. His simple goal is to be in the same direction as the market for over 95% of times relating to his trades.
        If wrong, takes a small loss swiftly and changes direction instantly basis price action.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      So many wrong things with the first paragraph, I don’t know where to start with. Let’s just say this coolbiz1 really doesn’t know what a wave of Cycle degree is.

  8. Thanks Tony
    Not easy to predict,in any timeframe
    DOW
    https://invst.ly/78eqm
    https://invst.ly/78erf

  9. Jack kendo says:

    will this bullish count work for oew?

  10. R D. says:

    Does the VIX need to go to 13 first before this market falls big time? One last rally. The JPN225 looks corrective off this top. Then again if it starts down…yell fire.

  11. Bear Market in my opinion..

  12. If you’re a bear then I would think this weekly candle and back test of a potential bear flag would be appetizing….

  13. E says:

    Why do you guys insist on being bullish, even to the point of forcing wave counts? It broke down past 2690 where Phil said yesterday would be a bearish breaking point. Then it broke past 2670, which was the falling wedge support. Then it broke past 2665 which is the number our respected TC indicated as the number required to maintain the current count. I switched to the bull camp for two days and already lost a sum of money. Something totally smells wrong with this market. I stated a few days ago that the two largest issues are FED tightening and interest rate hikes, so I’m aligned with MC’s comment regarding liquidity. Have a good weekend.

  14. This post from HD quoted below is not to be missed, so I’m quoting it here so it doesn’t get lost in the shuffle. I highly recommend reading the two Tony essays that HD linked to in his post – they are brilliant, imo.

    H D says:
    April 20, 2018 at 11:37 am
    Tony, with all the new players and new opinions, perhaps a good time to revisit the Saeculum conversation. https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/politics-and-secular-bullbear-markets/

    We have been anticipating the 4th turning, growth cycle, after an abbreviated 16 (instead of 20) year crisis period. I’m sure you are aware of all the current events. As we monitor those events I am wondering if some cognitive bias is in the analysis. If the “ reality TV star”
    https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/11/12/weekend-update-578/
    proves to be a grand finale to the crisis cycle instead of kicking off a growth cycle what would you need to see to consider that adjustment? I am currently anticipating the conclusion of Major 2 down. A massive Major 3 of PIII up on deck but monitoring how choppy this market has become I am revisiting your $NYA count. http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/203707002;
    It simply isn’t trading like a bull market anymore. Are we missing the most obvious completed 5 waves the market has ever shown us? PII down to wrap up the crisis cycle and usher in the 4th turning or just a new wall of worry?

    What level calls for an adjustment?

    • vicavale says:

      Yes, very thoughtful from both of you! Thanks!

    • E says:

      Very interesting read. Thank you!!! I am a fan of these mega cycles. Based on what I observe in the world today, we are still in the midst of the ‘crisis period’ and the massive shift toward a new ‘growth era’ will only occur when this chaos comes to an abrupt end and we begin dealing with our problems collaboratively. I’m sorry, but Trump cannot possibly be the leader of a new growth era. He is an instrument of mass chaos, but one positive purpose that he serves is to amplify all the issues we need to deal with as a human race before the new growth era can begin. Just my thoughts.

      • tony caldaro says:

        DJT’s purpose is to ignite growth.
        The rest is all political nonsense that will continue for decades. Get used to it.

        • E says:

          I respectfully disagree. There is more chaos and unrest growing globally than just DJT.

          • robslob64 says:

            Educate yourself through the enlightenment of critical thought rather than self serving echo chambers or group think.

            Chaos isn’t always bad –
            Order / Disorder Chaos is not simply disorder. Chaos explores the transitions between order and disorder, which often occur in surprising ways.

            • H D says:

              robslob- agree, this is chaos not growth. The conversation isn’t good vs bad or political. It’s more about how can anyone objectively consider today’s current events as anything other than chaos, even if that chaos later ushers in growth. To keep us all objective, my question was simple- what level would require an adjustment to Major 2 down or even PII down?

    • Gary Lewis says:

      Well, the 2010 Post is very revealing. Tony is this why you were so certain back in 2015 and 2016 that we were in a Bear Market? Your crisis cycle runs from 2010 to 2016 and then 30 years of prosperity. So quite possibly, history will honor Donald Trump as the president who set this period in motion. Oh my, Mt. Rushmore, make room for the Donald!!

        • Ashley says:

          Tony please take a look at your 60 minute dow chart, draw a trend line down the center of Jan on the 16 at the gap, then put it right in the center of the big waves and forget triangles or even EW for a minute… Note how the downtrend line is equal to the RSI 5 @50… Now draw a line in the centers of the waves you have marked B…

          Now look at and mark the divergences on the RSI 5 and the macd….

          Please look and tell me what you think about where we’re going of this mess I call the SHTF pattern at the top of a long 5 waves…. I promise you might see this decline a little differently Thanks .)

          Im predicting an up day Monday, lower high around 24.7K overbought on neg divergence RSI 5… Then return to center, RSI 5 @50 just under 24K, Then down to oversold on RSI 5 again…..

          My observations and forecast using pure technical s with EW and the natural cycle .)

  15. Holly Silver says:

    Interpret PHIL announcement of late. BULLISH and away we go……………….

    • phil1247 says:

      incorrect

      please read again

      • Holly Silver says:

        phil1247 says: April 20, 2018 at 3:10 pm
        hey buddy
        just got back
        looks like i didnt miss much
        figured it was almost impossible to push below 60 today
        2659 is the – 618 target of the traditional short in force today
        thats why i took off
        have a great weekend fotis

        and take a look at bonds ….
        …….much better and easier than es
        ===============================================================
        Lets all interpret PHIL together. I say he knew it would never go below 2659 and see it didn’t. Hmmm. Lets try to interpret that? Does it mean A – he is clueless and cryptic so he can talk out of both sides of his mouth? B- sees much higher move coming since we FINISHED wave 4? C- refuses to be clear about the past until AFTER the present proves him right?

        But of course you made fun of me BEFORE you knew this drop was coming. Now you pretend it’s no biggie. YOU saw the EXACT REVERSE before open today. Talk all you want, i will hold you to your actual words.

        So is that why you REFUSE to answer a simple question that requires Bullish here, Bearish here, both bullish and bearish depending on how the market moves?

        DISH IT OUT BUT CAN”T TAKE THE BACKLASH?

  16. Jack kendo says:

    bounced off 2656 pivot & support, bullish count with new Minor 3 underway?

    • mjtplayer says:

      Gimme a break, that’s a forced count if I’ve ever seen one

    • @@@ Wish you stick to your count & long position in the coming week [PLEASE, MAKE MY DAY]. Show us your consistent & rarely changing market views, certainly, with a pair of iron balls. BTW, you have been warned here: a back-to-back mini-crash leg is coming (what I mean “crash” — either a 3% single day drop or a 4% two-day decline). Mark this note, and I will come back after the mini. See you then.

  17. Holly Silver says:

    http://zeenews.india.com/world/if-we-concede-an-inch-us-will-take-a-foot-chinese-media-on-why-beijing-will-not-blink-first-in-trade-war-2101854.html

    You go first. No, you! The wheels of the bus goes round and round….

    Todays market, nothing decided. Just got in at the right time. Now have breathing room to exit if Monday reverses. I expect however that the upside is done. If Trump talks trade this weekend EF HUNT will listen!

    • Holly Silver says:

      Sorry. For many it doesn’t matter but I got the brokerage firm wrong. EF Hutton.

    • E says:

      Less than two weeks until “sell in May”. I think that the chance for the rebound was this week and it failed.

        • Ashley says:

          Not an OEW or EW expert by any means but notice how currencies, bonds, stocks and who knows what else are all correlated to the center line of this beautiful triangle….

          Above the center line the waves are quite impulsive with sharp fast turns the farther from center the down waves are much more volatile for sure…

          We have closed here right in the middle again after a nice clean impulse down on OP ex Friday the day after tax day and my dainty little black female cat sleeps with my big brown male Pit bull lately LOL

          What it all means I donno but to all here Happy 4/20 =)

          • Ashley says:

            Now look at the 60 minute DOW chart, see the gap near 26K, now draw a trend line down to todays low and note the trend??? Also note that to the top of what I call wave 5 looks like an ED….. Now were possibly in a leading diagonal triangle for the start of wave A???

            If so what would be the expected action at the end of the triangle??? Serious question for anyone with a better understanding of this type of count???

            • Ashley says:

              Gap is on 01 16 2018, rough center is March 3rd and today is 4/20, 4/23=???

              • Ashley says:

                Note the center of Jan is 50% of the last wave here I see it as started and the positioning of divergences….. No notice the trend and the increase in volatility with time from start to finish 😉

  18. vivelaamo says:

    Amazingly stochs still embeded (ira Epstein). Even as pull backs ago it’s pretty weak. Greedy Bears are going to be trapped big time which should make the next move up pretty impulsive.

      • phil1247 says:

        hey buddy
        just got back
        looks like i didnt miss much
        figured it was almost impossible to push below 60 today
        2659 is the – 618 target of the traditional short in force today
        thats why i took off
        have a great weekend fotis

        and take a look at bonds ….
        …….much better and easier than es

    • E says:

      The problem is it’s taking too long to recover and the bullish wave counts are no longer working.

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      The exact word–amazing.How did that manage to bounce from 2660?A certified miracle from St.Jerome of Powell.A second miracle needed Monday.I’ll be a believer if he does it again.

      • phil1247 says:

        Powell had nothing to do with it

        see my post to fotis

      • vivelaamo says:

        Nothing amazing about it. It’s a secular bull market. The bias will always be up.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Just realised I was the one that said amazingly! Lol.

        I suppose I meant amazing how bearish people start to sound after such a weak yet expected pb.

        • learnedmylesson25 says:

          I’m just going by the 2665 key support level that all OEW experts noted.That usually unleashes a big sell.Not today.What does that mean OEW experts?Fake out?

  19. gary61b says:

    anyone follow NQ? called these levels yesterday morning

    gary61b says:
    April 19, 2018 at 8:27 am
    NQ, has a small support 6790 but major support lower 6680 and then 6600.

    Reply

    • phil1247 says:

      another case in point
      almost impossible to go past -618 target
      nearly a 40 point bounce
      i dont trade it gary

      i can only keep track of seven things at once 😉

  20. tommyboys says:

    RUT leading again. Only off about half the Nasdaq drop so far…

  21. fotis2 says:

    Hats off to Holly and Newb

  22. E says:

    I guess my May 11 turning point could now be end of armageddon wave 1. Target 2450. End of year target 1750.

    • vivelaamo says:

      It’s almost like oversold levels can’t pull back anymore without it being meaning a crash. Luckily you’re still posting rational posts.

      Have a good weekend all.

  23. triangle up is still possible to 2740. but either way it eventually resolves down. good job bears.

  24. NEWBIE says:

    Again, who is holding long into the Crash Monday?

  25. Jack kendo says:

    crash cycle

    i am bullish as A/D ATH two days ago, but as an insurance.
    cheers!

  26. power hour coming up . Rip it or tank it, do something

    • $SPX 2665 clearly on deck (there it is now). Market is in Big Down mode with 2525 target. I would expect a close at or near the lows, whatever they turn out to be. We didn’t have a Big Up during that entire rally, and every up move was retraced and overlapped, The correction continues, it would seem. Now the question is one of degree.

    • Ashley says:

      Im thinking we close near 2656, rising $$$ and bonds are driving the bus today…. Currency’s are potentially very volatile here after being in such a tight range so far through this W4 of ???

  27. rabbittrader1 says:

    Response to mcgcapital: What mioves the Markets? Of course liquidity has a lot ot do with it. But what moves the Fed and other central bakers throughout the World ? The word is “CYCLES”. The book published in 1971 by E. R Dewey and Og Mandino called “Cycles, The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events” helps to (somewhat) explain it. Yes this is the same Dewey who invented the Dewey Decimal System. Anyway, cycles are ,of course “Waves” (Think Elliot wave) . Cycles and waves cause events which cause men and markets to move . Fractals, the wing of a Butterfly causing potentially (re-inforced a tornado, etc. As Helen Keller said “There are more things in the world that cannot be seen or even touched , that are more REAL that what can be seen” Rabbit

    • reddragonleo says:

      Rabbit… what do your cycles say about 2019 and beyond? I’m looking for the high this year (3000+ SPX) to be “the high” for awhile as I see 2019 starting the recession/depression (depends on government intervention which one?).

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      Rabbit you do go back a long way. Dewey for long term cycle work and Hurst for his detailed explanation of cycles ever written.

  28. Holly Silver says:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/610936/the-us-china-tech-trade-war-is-getting-dialed-up-a-notch/

    Short to the point. For those purist religious devotees of EW all things are already captured in their moves. How the market knows before hand is a mystery that only Phil can divulge if he want to expose his secrets to the world.

    I wonder how all those EW technicians got early 2016 wrong. I mean folks that’s like advertising a deep sea project to drill to the center of the earth and instead we launch a man on Mars. Kind of difficult to explain away.

    AT 2:20 SPX is down 21.0 at 2671 BUT it is trying to launch another wave up. If it can hold here we should see 2680-4 before the close. If we do I add to my bets. What the hey, I already made play money. Might as well spend it.

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