Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2604. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2654. Then sold off to SPX 2611 in the last two hours of trading. On Tuesday another gap up opening carried the SPX to 2663. Then a 27 point decline occurred within one hour. But the market recovered to close near the highs of the day. On Wednesday a gap down opening, there were gap openings every day, took the SPX into the low 2640’s where it ended the day. Gap up openings on Thursday and Friday, carried the SPX to 2680. And yes, that was sold too as the SPX ended the week at the 2656 pivot. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.9%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On  the downtick: the CPI, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: the PPI, wholesale inventories, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports are highlighted by the Beige book, industrial production, housing and Options expiration.

LONG TERM: uptrend

With many new participants in the blog, some history may be required. Between the early-1700’s and the year 1929 a two century GSC unfolded, topped, and then crashed into the year 1932. After that, with the DOW around 40, a new two century GSC began. The first wave of this GSC was SC1 (super cycle one) from 1932-2007. Then the market had its biggest crash since 1929-1932: 2007-2009 the great recession. In March 2009 the great recession and SC2 ended. From that low a new 70-80 year SC3 began. The first bull market of SC3 was 2009-2015, and first bear market 2015-2016. We have labeled them as Primary waves I and II. The bull market currently underway is part of Primary III. We are counting it as Major wave 1.

With the above background it is easy to see how the Major wave 1 bull market is unfolding. Major waves divide into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate wave iii then started to divide into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 and Int. iii recently ended in January 2018, and Int. wave iv began at that time. Before this bull market ends, Intermediate wave v should be making new all-time highs. The wave structures of the DOW, the NYSE, and even the DJW index suggest at least one more wave higher.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

When we look back at Intermediate wave ii in 2016. We find it lasted two months, and was an irregular zigzag correction [2111]: 2026-2121-1992. The current Intermediate wave iv correction is also three waves [2873] 2533-2802-2554, is just a bit more than two months, and appears to be a flat. The alternation setup, between the significant second and fourth waves of a bull market is clear.

After the SPX 2554 low the market rallied. The first rally looked impulsive (2554-2672) and we labeled it Minor wave 1. The pullback that followed to SPX 2586 we labeled Minor 2. Next we expected a Minor wave 3 liftoff. But all we have seen this week is a lot of choppy, buy the dip-sell the rip activity. Five gap openings, four higher, a 2% weekly gain, but a lot of chop. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2632, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As noted last weekend, the Minor wave 1 rally looked quite impulsive. Minor wave 2 was steep, but most second waves have been steep in this bull market. The rally from the Minor 2 low looks like a leading diagonal triangle to SPX 2665. After that the rest of the week was quite sloppy: pullback to 2639, three waves to 2680, now another pullback to 2645. A decline to SPX 2639 would make that three days looks like an irregular flat. Lower, an irregular zigzag. Much lower, and the entire advance from SPX 2586 starts looking corrective.

Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with an ongoing negative divergence. It has been a day traders market for a couple of months now. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher on the week and gained 1.3%.

European markets were also all higher and gained 1.2%.

The DJ World index  (DJW) gained 1.5%, and the NYSE gained 1.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.5%.

Crude continues to uptrend and gained 8.6%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.9%.

The USD remains in an uptrend but lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: retail sales and the NYV FED at 8:30, the NAHB and business inventories at 10am. Tuesday: housing starts, building permits, and industrial production. Wednesday: beige book. Thursday: jobless claims, Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration. Plus, lots of FED speeches during the week.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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457 Responses to Weekend update

  1. mcgcapital says:

    It’s still the least impressive rally off a major low since 2009, which suggests it might not have been a low or that the trend has changed. Maybe short term there is pessimism, but that will go with a few up days. All I see intermediate term is widespread bullishness, hardly anyone believes this is a bear market apart from the people who always say we’re in a bear market. To be honest, I can see a wide trading range for some time yet then an eventual break lower when the bulls finally throw in the towel.

    • phil1247 says:

      the trend is up
      while there is” potential “resistance above …all the way to the top
      none of that matters until the extension long fails
      pessimism … news… etc etc dont matter
      spx will continue to grind up until extensions fail

  2. Mary773 says:

    Since the market cannot sustain downside momentum based on fear – and Granville wrote that bull markets end with great earnings – maybe the bears need Corporate America to report blowout revenues. JPM did exactly that and the stock fell. So did the group. A few more of those events and at least there will be a cogent argument for a top.

    As opposed to wishing and hoping.

    What I see is 1) a bull market; 2) a consolidation; 3) widespread pessimism. After nine years of experiencing this very situation, I perceive a familiar scenario that has always resolved in the same direction. But this time could be different. Really. It could. I therefore have stop losses in place. Just in case this time is different.

  3. Looks like euphoria is back. Predict a 2720 close on sp. up 43 today.

  4. tommyboys says:

    Good morning bears 😚

    • travis01 says:

      I’m long but still find you and these posts exceedingly useless. This is pretty much what ruined the board before. But you be you…

  5. phil1247 says:

    2692 target shown last nite has been hit

    bull above …………………. 2687
    target …………………………2700

    strong potential resistance at 2708.5

  6. look at the AAII survey lots of bears , vix and CNN fear index investors are already positioned for a bearish scenario only way is up for the last wave of the bull

  7. Futures trying to just gap it over 2687-2693. Bears could be in big trouble. At the moment that includes me

  8. All I have tonight is HYG has embedded (bullishly,of course).Gaps to fill to the north of here.Equities to follow until HYG breaks down.Gold did not sell off $20 like I proposed.Neither did it rally with a much lower dollar.GDX was lifeless as well.Good luck all.

  9. phil1247 says:

    2692 target esm8 while above extension long 2674

    failure there and support drops to 2649

  10. Long Term Trend has been up! Period

    Have no fear !

    Looking very bullish here ..

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Wow just realised last times the weekly Lower BB band was touched was election night. Before that it was Feb 2016 low, Brexit and Election night. We all know what happened after each one of those events.

    first week of a April lows look like a bottom. Good luck all.

  12. continue to keep my short. nothing impulsive. break out of the wedge/triangle at 2700 ish i will be a believer. until then i just dont see it. So either we completed at the highs or I see trader Joe looking for another up wave to finish before heading lower.
    we will see what tomorrow brings. Good luck all. .

  13. alexh110 says:

    I turned cautiously bearish at the close, mainly due to repeating patterns on the hourly RSI/MACD.
    Holding a slightly overweight short position with tight stops.

  14. 123 abc says:

    Bullish count currently in play (first chart).
    Bearish count in play if 2645 is taken out (second chart).


    • H D says:

      equal probability too. I went even further with the bull count, into pico 1-2. No reason to hold back if it’s truely impulsive.

      • Ashley says:

        All the down waves are impulsive and up waves are corrective and this last attempt is wary weak… I give the bears credit for a STRONG defense and while the offense has historically sucked for like forever, never say never .)

        That said Im feeling like a YOUNG cow among a heard of OLD bulls so Im hoping they dont all follow me over to the south fence… If they do Im gonna run like hell north to the west gate LOL .)

    • ABC:
      The A-D lines are looking quite strong, yet I still feel that your second scenario is the correct one.

  15. Holly Silver says:

    External news accelerating to a head. China, and direct ties between Cohen and Prague meeting with Russians. Now we learnt why Cohen refused to answer who his clients were. Only 3. Trump, a former RNC person, and Hannity. RNC, FOX, Trump. Sounds familiar. now we know why. Can’t make this stuff up. Deep State indeed.

    The market will not survive upside momentum after this week is out.

    • pooch77 says:

      No,will go up thru earnings

    • pooch77 says:

      Your looking to hard for black swan event

    • phil1247 says:

      holly

      pretty much everyone knows there is a lot of bad news out there
      but the market refuses to go down
      there is the potential for myriad tape bombs at any moment
      none of that matters

      • Holly Silver says:

        I already showed a strong correlation with trade war announcements and market swoons. You can dismiss it but the street is obsessed with it. Fanatical thinking to assume you have the formula for market movement. No such thing. if there was you wouldn’t be back tracking to “prove” your system. A system should always work going FORWARD. State what will happen and stick by it for more than one hour. You call externals noise. Trump is not noise to the world. Chinas trade war as big as impeachment. Both are market killers. Is earnings factored in? Do you know? You actually claim it doesn’t matter? Market doesn’t move in a vacuum. Most money is made historically during earnings season. That’s NOT EW technique.

        I already made enough money on external noise to gamble another dozen times without losing my original principal. With the risk/reward and anemic movement so far to gather momentum I’ll stick with my method. In fact I will keep loading up more bets on long shots the longer it takes to prove a breakout. Can it simply break the 2 plus month triangle formation? Time in not on the bull side here. It has to clear major resistance points or it falls back down IMO. I wait to see if we break 2710 and more importantly how long it takes. if it lasts till end of week its a “TELL” for me.

    • I am waiting to see the details of the Clinton foundation’s ties to Russia, as well as Hillary’s culpability in the Clinton -Russian uranium deal in which she took advantage of her role as Secretary of State for personal profit. Why hasn’t a special prosecutor been appointed to investigate that. There is where the real corrupt Russian connection is, not with Trump

  16. pooch77 says:

    No brainer here,up to 2800+,big bear roast the next 2 weeks.

  17. phil1247 says:

    NEWBIE

    people talking about gaps that need filling

    you would love to see this weekly gap filled near SPX 770… yes ?

  18. E says:

    Not convincing. Maybe I’ll be feed for the bulls tomorrow. Don’t think they eat omelettes though. We’ll see.

  19. tommyboys says:

    How re all you bears doing to today? A/D about 2/1 positive on Nasdaq and almost 3/1 on NYSE. Darn close to taking out new ATHs on both! Enjoy 🙂

  20. H D says:

    Another overlap, Did SPX did do pico 1-2. Nothing left but 3’s up? asking for a friend.

  21. pooch77 says:

    2683

  22. gary61b says:

    spx close 2672

  23. Guys, the table looks set to gap em’ over 2700 and run, leaving a massive island of the last 17 trading days below 2700 behind. This IMO would cause a pretty big chase as anyone short or not long below 2700 had to deal with higher prices than they probably anticipated. Sentiment is still extremely bearish IMO.

    • Jack kendo says:

      2710 gap needs to be filled.
      market should rally into Friday OPEX.
      OPEX week mostly are bullish.
      3 up from Friday low, 3 smaller down from day high – meaning another run to higher high, and much higher. imho, gap up to fill is good.
      next pivoy is at 2731.
      cheers!

    • NEWBIE says:

      Did you notice how bullish, actually EUPHORIC the market was before this recent decline? Well the masses were Bullish and it kept going up and up. With that being said, same thing can happen on the bear side.

      • Jack kendo says:

        your posted uvxy 19.8 is down to 15.9, a 20% hair cut in a week.
        but i don’t think you actually did the buy.
        i think you are a bull, just posting for entertainment.
        and your writing style are the same as lunker, both often posting nasty words and …
        indicates: NEWBIE = lunker

      • mcgcapital says:

        +1 to this.. Bull markets die on euphoria. If January wasn’t euphoria then what is. People on here and on twitter keep quoting certain indicators showing sentiment is washed out, where rallies usually came after 3-5% dips in a bull trend.. but failing to realise the trend might have changed to a bearish one so these indicators don’t work the same

        • I find it hard to believe that the market would give basically 3 months time for the bulls to get out. This looks like consolidation to me. And essentially that is exactly what has been done. Bulls have been removing money from stocks and bears have had ample time to load up. If it were a real bear or even crash, this thing would already be much lower and have taken out the vaunted Feb lows. But, that’s just one man’s opinion.

          • mcgcapital says:

            I’m not sure Jason, but just speculating the trend might have changed as this is different to anything else post 2009. It’s been nearly 3 months since the high and we’re yet to see an impulsive looking rally which is longer than the 2011, 2015 and 2016 corrections. Does seem a bit odd to be having a bear right now with earnings and growth supporting, but I think there’s a long list of issues going to come to fruition when there is another recession. It’s not that obvious what particular thing is stopping us from rallying so it’s hard to say when it will go away and that makes me think the path of least resistance remains down for now, but it’s a tough call and probably will be a sideways market for some time yet

  24. fionamargaret says:

    …and then there is JNUG, NUGT, UGLD, USLV….

  25. phil1247 says:

    superbull above 82.25
    2689 is next

    • Ashley says:

      Little more short here…

    • phil1247 says:

      83 good place to exit longs 😉

    • Holly Silver says:

      Phil down right giddy here. That means a top should be formed no later than Friday.
      That 2.5 month triangle formation will unlikely break on the upside. 6 weeks between tops. next 6 week target is this Friday. Average drop from there lasts 2 weeks. I see 2710 area no later than this Friday followed by a nasty drop. Not logical during heart of earnings but that’s what is presented on a symmetrical pattern. Wait it out once again.

      US doubled down then tripled down in a giddy display of hubris thinking they have China exactly where they want them. Going to get ugly as market realizes the inevitable is coming to a state near you.

    • pooch77 says:

      Prezel has move to 2690 then down or breakthru and 2800+

  26. phil1247 says:

    BEAR trap has been sprung !

    going thru 85 target
    86 87
    then 2710

  27. thinking we hit 2640 before 2700. close over 2675 im out of my short.or even trade over 2690 im out. bears we could be in trouble

    • gary61b says:

      T1 was 2685.25 from 2661.25 long setup. If….next ext. 2690, then 2696.75…Previously from lows no extension or impulsing.

  28. vivelaamo says:

    Been waiting a while for the down trendline to break and i&h to signal long. Both happened today so I think it takes a brave person to short unless they are scalping. It’s pure btfd mode in my opinion to test all time highs in the next few weeks.

    Of course this could also be yet another bull trap. Can’t see it myself. Good luck all.

  29. gary61b says:

    ES possible attraction to 2673.5 for a magnet then 2671 for support or not https://gyazo.com/0550f91915660464cb4e4e237146be85

    • gary61b says:

      ES, with the high of 2687 and the low of 2660.75, HWB is 2673.25….lets see if there is any interest to drop it before a new high?

  30. NEWBIE says:

    I genuinely believe the bankers are backed against the wall, right here and now. The music is about to stop and the party is about to end violently .

  31. Jack kendo says:

    95% posts here are bearish and shorting the market.
    the house needs to clean up all these, another big gap up tomorrow will do it.

    so many perma bears are looking for crash.
    there won’t be a crash now.
    1. never crash during earning reporting period.
    2. never crash in April.
    3. very bullish market: VIX divergence with SPX
    market bottomed when VIX reached 50 during Aug ~Oct 2011
    market bottomed when VIX reached 50 during Aug 2015~Feb 2016
    market bottomed when VIX reached 50 during Feb 2018
    if there is a crash coming, why is VIX so low at 16’s?
    https://gyazo.com/e86c6894e983dd65b3adeb14bf063f07
    cheers!

    • They had their chance to crash a week ago last Friday.PPT said “NO”.Carry on.

    • Ashley says:

      2nd mouse gets the cheese???

    • mcgcapital says:

      Calm before the storm mate.. market can do anything anytime. Main tell is price action.. last year it was going up every day and you kept calling crash when it never looked likely. Now it’s behaving pretty unstable and you’re calling rally. Do you go against the market for attention?

      • Jack kendo says:

        it was my mistake last year, said many times.
        Tony is bullish with bullish oew counts, no bearish alternative. you continue to go against Tony’s analysis should be very costly.
        all i listed are facts and technical (which one isn’t true?), you are just talking about your losing short positions.
        cheers!

        • mcgcapital says:

          Wave counts are out of the window at the moment for me. I’m really not sure we get an intermediate 5 at all. It won’t be the first time the longer term count has to be adjusted if so. I’m not saying I definitely see it collapsing, I’m just not sure. All I know is, if this is going to rally another 200+ points without another downdraft it’s making really hard work of it. Every single uptrend has the same pattern, bottoms, lift off, strong momentum, then slowly loses momentum as we rally. We haven’t had any momentum on this move. I’m still holding half my spx short from 2679.. marginally offside on that but decent profit on the other half. FTSE shorts looking good

      • vivelaamo says:

        He may be crazy but I think he is actually talking sense this time.

      • E says:

        I do believe Tony is very good at what he does and accurate. That’s why I’m here, hopefully for the long term. However, I joined at a very strange time in the market. Wish I knew about this place years ago when things were not so crazy. Something just doesn’t seem right to me. That’s why I’m questioning. For example, why did Tony’s WROC signal fail this time? There are also many large changes happening the economic and political landscape.

        • fotis2 says:

          Believe me its always a very strange time in the Market

          • phil1247 says:

            LOL

            just one more report..
            just ..one more data point .
            just . one more day
            and it will all become clear …..

            News Flash …………its never going to become clear

        • micky says:

          E if it works 90% of the time, it still means 10% of the time it will not. All about probabilities.

          • Jack kendo says:

            micky, i see Tony issued multiple WROC in March 10 weekend report.
            what’s the impact of WROC failure multiple time in a month time frame. any past example of multiple WROC failure so often?
            or there is a delayed factor to WROC and indicate very bullish going forward?

            oew March 10 weekend report:
            “we have had WROC signals in recent weeks”
            cheers!

    • HP999 says:

      Enough with this VIX thing ! VIX is not something that moves by itself, its value is dictated by the variation of option premiums on the SP. So at best it’s a lagging indicators that simply confirms that investors are paying a higher premium for puts because they seek protection. It’s just an inverse play on the market except its daily moves are on average 4 times larger than the SPX.

      • Jack kendo says:

        imho, you are completely wrong about VIX.
        tell me why?
        1. VIX was 53 at Aug 2015 low, VIX was 30’s at a lower low of Feb 2016. why is that much divergence of 40% off?
        2. VIX was 50 at Feb 2018 low, VIX was 26 at double bottom low of Apr 2018. why is that much divergence of nearly 50% off?
        if VIX value is dictated by the variation of option premiums on the SP, why are there huge divergence?
        i see VIX as a leading indicator, not a lagging as you said.
        cheers!

        • mcgcapital says:

          Do you know about Black Scholes? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black–Scholes_model
          Short answer is vix is the implied volatility on SPX options.. and volatility is the only function in the option pricing formula that’s not directly observable as the others (e.g. time, share price, strike price, dividend yield, interest rate) don’t generally move much for a given class of option. Therefore when investors pile into options, they raise the price of them but the above 5 variables don’t move so that means implied volatility increases to balance out the equation. First leg of corrections usually see higher vix as they take people off guard so there’s a big move into options to hedge and rebalance portfolios. Subsequent drops take less people off guard so there’s less hedging. Can’t say I can see how it can be used to show divergences.. but think the fact it’s hanging around 20 for a long period now is showing that there’s uncertainty and it’s not showing any signs of going away. Kind of makes it difficult for the market to sustain gains when nobody has much confidence to commit capital

  32. Holly Silver says:

    Earnings is not going to clear the 2 month slide. Banks can’t create the spike I don’t believe anything will. In fact the move hasn’t even broken out above 2680 yet. I am still very much a Bear here. Whatever the final move up it will not be to new highs, nor anything close. The tight wedge and way overdue point of a breakout/down suggests we will see a much sharper and deeper move once it does decide which way.

    Time seems to have run out for the bulls but we do keep extending the deadline with the ever tighter pattern. As I once described it we are subdividing in half and then subdividing that.

    Consider this. China US trade war is inevitable and it will start within the next 6 weeks. If this market can manage to rise till then I would be watching for decision and bet for a major crash. If we can’t muster up any sizeable move till then we will likely slowly drop to same targets.

    • E says:

      I agree with you at this moment. Earnings is my last hope for converting into a bull, but the response to great beats so far seems to be extremely lethargic (so far). Some say the bears are getting exhausted, but I think in fact the reverse is true this time. Bulls are getting exhausted and bears are growing in number with each passing day.

  33. micky says:

    higher lows ain’t broken yet

  34. hit 2711 at 8;14 bounced quickly hit it again at 8:35 and with in seconds bounced 2.5 points. important level to crack if going down.tight range 2671-2675. going somewhere soon

  35. fionamargaret says:

    I have SPY down to 233, and QQQ down to 132…

    • E says:

      Your numbers are getting lower and lower each week! But when? 😛

      • fionamargaret says:

        That is the number configuration…the numbers do not change dramatically….
        I also have oil with a triple top breakout on the 11 April, so I would not be short UWT…

  36. aahmichael says:

    Fun fact to keep in mind:
    Last week’s low was higher than the previous week’s close, creating a weekly unfilled gap. Today’s open then gapped higher more than 0.10%. Since 1970, a span of 2460 weeks, there have only been 2 weeks where this setup resulted in this morning’s gap not being filled prior to the close of the week.

  37. phil1247 says:

    esm8 grindorama between 2657 and 2687
    until one side wins
    you really dont know where you are
    not interested
    see ya!

    • Jeff H says:

      The 15min is still (+) until /ES 2669/2670 is broken.
      Therefore, we are in a holding pattern, I agree!
      Down $100 due to the grind and $40 in online trading fees!
      Just watching and waiting.
      Unfortunately, when this breaks, (usually) it’ll be hard one way or the other, and you can’t get in quick enough.

      • phil1247 says:

        Jeff

        if you would rather not get chopped up in ES
        take a look at ZB
        very technical and easy to know where you are …
        .. for now at least

        • phil1247 says:

          15 min down series is breaking now
          look for quick pop up in bond to short entry
          about a half point above here

          • mm4398 says:

            Why ZB over ZN here Phil? I do agree bonds looking pretty bearish here on monthly, weekly, and daily time frames.

            • phil1247 says:

              actually ZN is even better… it leads
              but i am doing TBT
              so i use ZB to tell me when to get in and out of TBT

    • Vishal says:

      2687 is short entry ?

  38. mcgcapital says:

    Think we’re going to roll over again here and not make it past 2680. FTSE has already broken the short term trend this morning and heading back down.. was leading on the way up

  39. H D says:

    $SPX gaps open for 11th straight time. Everyday in April. Very dangerous to be sitting on 3 of 3 up. If that proves to be the count, above 2731 should crush the volatility.

  40. if a wedge/triangle. A up today. ended B down now to 2640, then up again to max 2625 then down 2500 level

  41. alexh110 says:

    If I include futures it looks like 5 waves down on the 1 minute chart.
    Have a near neutral hedge at the moment, as I’m not very confident either way.

  42. gary61b says:

    ES, from this am on the 15 min chart a 50% long at 2661.25. 2685.25 looks to be the target and some other up trends before that never played out at 2686.5. I have a magnet at 2672.50 and below 68 back into lower volume cluster.

  43. Mary773 says:

    ES is slamming into the 2670-2680 resistance zone for the sixth time since 3/27, with a thin zone immediately above extending up to 2734. DX hit major monthly support on 1/24 and rather than rallying has traded sideways for eleven weeks. Friday’s COT report showed that silver speculators are still aggressively short.

  44. In a wedge, with a range of 2640-2690. I see some looking for an abc up to 2690 before a waterfall down. Breaking Phil’s 2687 is important to me to become bullish. Could be another whippy day.

    Old luck all

  45. quickrick38 says:

    It was kinda nice a few days ago when most of the crowd admitted they had no idea what direction the market would take. Now, here we are once again, with half the crowd saying up and the other half saying down. Even Tony acknowledges, in spite of the count, that down is a distinct possibility.

    Now, on most days, I have a pretty good idea of not only direction but how far it will go before reversing. For example, on Friday I bought USO puts because it was quite clear that crude would be going down…in spite of many claiming it would keep going up and indicators like investing.com giving it a strong buy rating. By the way, those kinds of indicators are nothing more than momentum indicators that cannot predict turns. Yes, it is the count that matters. The count provides a very high probability most of the time…but not always. There are times when you simply cannot tell what direction the market will go. I freely admit that I have no idea whether the broad market will go up or down this week. That is a ‘wait and see’.

    By the way, thanks to jobjas for not only providing a reinforcing count on crude but a very nice target for the reversal as well. As for the general market, I have to wonder how many are so intoxicated with the need to place a bet that they refuse to take the sit on your hands approach – which is sometimes the only logical choice. If you are one of those (addicted to gambling), you may have to learn the hard way…good luck all.

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      Very intelligent comment.

    • I get what you’re saying Rick. There are those who are long one minute and short the next, which is normal for day trading, nut not for someone attempting to capture the better part of a multi-day or even multi week swing. I certainly do not understand those who seemingly make swing trade decisions based on overnight Globex noise. My position has been the same for most of this past confusing couple of weeks: I am short, and I will go flat on a cash close above 2678. I have been and still expect the market to trade down to the 2554 low, and down to the 2525 pivot as well. I do not change my bets often, and do so only when the market I trade, which I define as the S&P 500 cash index as it presents itself on a daily bar interval chart, indicates a change in position is warranted.

  46. torehund says:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/interest-expenditures-will-now-exceed-military-spending-we-are-being-walled-in-by-our-own-debt/

    Martin heading to the eye of the coming storm namely Europe. Something pivotal building on a larger scale AS we also see on the charts.

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