Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening rally, DOW +294

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower and import prices were unchanged. The market opened at SPX 2657, then rallied to 2671 by 10:30. The SPX had closed at 2642 yesterday. After a pullback to SPX 2661 by noon, the market rallied to 2672 by 1pm. Then after a pullback to SPX 2656 the market rallied to 2675, before ending the day at 2664.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold dropped $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support is back to the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: consumer sentiment at 10am.

Thus far this week there have been gap openings everyday: three up and one down. The SPX, despite all the choppy activity, is up over 2% on the week. Yet, all it feels like is a lot of choppy activity leading to nowhere fast. Nevertheless, we continue to count the short term waves with a slight positive bias. We have potentially: Minor waves 1 and 2 (2672 and 2586), then Minute waves i (leading diagonal) and ii (2665 and 2639). Minute iii should be underway from yesterday’s low. From yesterday’s low we have two waves: 2672 and 2656 degree unknown at this point. The potential remains for the bull market to resume at any time despite the seemingly endless choppy activity. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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272 Responses to Thursday update

  1. davidmlamos says:


  2. davidmlamos says:

    Timeless Truth:

  3. I’m starting to think this is a major wave not an intermediate wave. Interesting to see what tony says today

  4. Lee X says:

    Have a great weekend you commie bastards

  5. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Last one…Russian response
    “The question everyone was asking is whether Russia has responded, and if so, how.

    The answer, for now at least, is that Russia has not activated a response, although that may soon change. Here is the statement from Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anataloy Antonov, posted on Facebook:

    The worst apprehensions have come true. Our warnings have been left unheard.

    A pre-designed scenario is being implemented. Again, we are being threatened. We warned that such actions will not be left without consequences.

    All responsibility for them rests with Washington, London and Paris.

    Insulting the President of Russia is unacceptable and inadmissible.”

    • H D says:

      F! Russia. US dropped 30,000 bombs in 2016 on Syria and 30,000 more last year. It was the tweet “get ready Russia” that provoked them.

      • Our tax dollars at work. Trade better to pay more taxes to feed the ravenous defense machine and list of generals in the defense contract profession.

        I had no idea that taxes were 94% to fund WWII and 91% for the Korean War (Martin Armstrong). The world debt situation is a disaster and the time is right for the nut-jobs in charge of decision-making to give us the much needed entertainment (read: national pastime) of WW III.

      • “I know you’ve heard it’s over now and war must surely come,
        The cities — they are broke in half and the middle men are gone,
        But let me ask you one more time O children of the dust,
        All these hunters who are shrieking now, oh do they speak for us?”

  6. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  7. hugh jazole says:

    Are we still past the crisis stage? You know, the one that Trump ended.

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      If Russia sits on its bombs…yes.If they defend their ally…no.

    • H D says:

      +1 grand finale time. Very subjective to have considered growth stage years early. I gave up debating it with Tony. Just like the markets, we all have opinions. Basically, the very crisis that many warned about is unfolding, as we warned, precisely.

      • H D says:

        As Tony said “watch what they do, not what they say.”

        • H D says:

          There are 2000+ US soldiers in Syria. Let’s pray Commander bone spurs doesn’t mess up. God speed.

          • tommyboys says:

            LOL yeah let’s sit back like good snowflakes and let the nut job dictators of the world chemically poison innocent children and proliferate their weapons and power. Yeah that’s the right thing. Sometimes you gotta man up and do what must be done when generations of previous leaders wouldn’t.

            • H D says:

              I remember the snowflakes well. The house republicants would not give the last POTUS AUMF. The USA is a constitutional democracy you dumbas*
              You just sound dumber every time you say something.

        • fbender7 says:

          Good advice. Watch what Putin does, not what he says.

      • fbender7 says:

        You’re jumping the gun. It’s more likely that Trump is preventing a crisis rather than starting one. Russia likes to talk smack, but in the end, “Russia” is nothing more than Putin. Everyone there works for him. And if they resist, he has them killed. It must be lonely being dictator Putin. It is not the people’s country, but rather, his country and his alone. It is his military, not the people’s. Therefore there is no soul in anything Russia does or says. It is hollow. It is one man, and one man alone. There is no true will behind it, no moral authority, just rhetoric, and hollow rhetoric at that. Can one man, Putin, really think he can stand up to the United States of America. He knows he cannot.

        As far as “Insulting the President of Russia is unacceptable and inadmissible.” LOL. That sounds like it was written by Putin himself.

  8. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Here we go.The black swan has landed.Trump will tell the nation shortly,subs and ships will fire missiles.Good luck all–not just on equities and gold.

    • stan911 says:

      24k should hold for the Dow, 2614-04 area for spx. Let’s see if these support levels hold if they do then it’s btfd for a rally.

    • tommyboys says:

      Can’t be much of a black swan if we were all aware of it.

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Did you know about it 2 months ago?That’s a black swan.This is a potential black swan depending on other country’s reactions,If nothing happens,SPX will be up huge Monday.

      • scorp100 says:

        One week back – ‘we are pulling out of Syria’. And now?
        IF Obama or any dem president had done this, you would be all against that.
        It’s not just your fault. We are so divided and so biased, we can’t differentiate right from wrong. We determine whether something is right or wrong, based on who is doing that.

    • fbender7 says:

      Last year’s missile attack resulted in the DJIA dropping a mere 25 points and the SPX dropping about 10 points, only to recover shortly thereafter. So I don’t expect the equity markets to react to this bombing much at all. The exception might be if oil futures go up, taking energy equities with them, and possibly lifting the whole equities market with them.

      Now if Putin begins a war of words with Trump, then maybe the markets will drop, but otherwise, this is a “nothing burger”, as our Dem friends might say.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Really interesting Gary…in my formula the number below 2465 is 2340…and if we go through the 200…..2300 is where we probably would go….
      Now to work out the winner of the Grand National (running tomorrow afternoon at Aintree), and yes, Nicky Henderson had 3 winners yesterday, one of which was Might Bite…he knows he has a following here, and the punters wonder if they could do the waves….x

      • Gary Lewis says:

        I won maybe just one time playing the ponies. I took a date to Arlington Park racetrack outside of Chicago and went to make a bet. The guy in front of me was betting $500 on a 15-1 play. I commented that he really must know what he’s doing. He said that it was his rating service’s #1 pick of the day. So I put $20 on it and success! On my own? Forget about it! I’ll stick to stocks 🙂

      • mcgcapital says:

        If you figure it out, let me know.. I’m off to aintree tomorrow but know very little about horses

        • fionamargaret says:

          The Grand National is probably the most difficult race to call…if you finish, you are a winner.
          I shall try though…there are a couple of human interest stories that piqued my interest.
          The trainer of the horse that pipped Might Bite in Cheltenham’s Gold an interesting fellow (Colin Tizard) with another horse running tomorrow…The Dutchman.
          And an Irish horse Pleasant Company trained by Willie Mullins, has Mullin’s son riding.
          Both are long shots.
          Blaklion, Anibale Fly, and Total Recall will probably present well, but let me think about this more if I am going to give you a winner.. .but this is where I am at right now….x

        • fionamargaret says:

          I replied to you McG, but my comment on the horses is awaiting moderation.
          I hope it goes through…better to think of other things at this point in time I think.

          • fionamargaret says:

            For anyone interested, the Irish horse trained by Mullins “Pleasant Company” was beaten in a photo finish at the wire….

            • fionamargaret says:

              Anibale Fly was 4th, and McG suggesting it was going to be a heavy day….well, the Irish horses seem to do better on mucky turf and they certainly proved this point by ending up 1,2,3,4.
              No wonder the horse crowd think there are many similarities to the variables in the stock market….

  9. I am starting to wonder if we could have completed an A wave of wave 1 of an ending diagonal. That could explain the non-impulsiveness of wave 3 of 3.

  10. aahmichael says:

    This market.

  11. no “bad weekend” until after taxes 4/17 in usa. Hopefully not then either [pretty lame “proof”]

  12. Page says:

    Wasn’t expecting close like this, looks like bulls win. If there are no tomahawk missiles flying over Syria then market will shoot higher on Monday.

  13. Holly Silver says:

    Impressive last hour move. I added more PUTS near end of day. Weekend should produce a 3 percent immediate drop for Monday. Crash day!

  14. E says:

    Wow! Ended right on the pivot.

  15. Jack kendo says:

    from morning 2680, 3 waves down and now overlapping.
    meaning new high above 2680 next Monday.
    vix down confirms the coming move.;

    • NEWBIE says:

      When you turned bull I became biggest bear on the planet earth.

      • Jack kendo says:

        ur biggest bear & looking for “up to 2700 first”?
        don’t think you shorted anything. uvxy 19.2 with -10% doesn’t count, just talks.
        on the contrary, i observed, and see you as a perma bull, just posting as in the contrarian fashion to entertain here. vive should know that.

    • Billy says:

      Essentially agree. Potentially 4th wave down in an ED may have completed at the LOD. The thing to bear in mind is, although the 4th wave has done enough, it could still go lower. The invalidation is where the 4th wave goes below the 2nd wave low which is a good distance away at 2586.27. So there is plenty of room for further meanderings. Nevertheless IMO I’d say 70/30 in favor of the 4th wave having completed today. The final thing to remember, assuming an ED is the correct structure, is that the 5th and final wave will need to be 3 waves (i.e. an a-b-c).

    • dad1 says:

      I read the VIX completely opposite. The market makers use it to manipulate the market. Today they were shorting it to keep the market levitated.

  16. Signficant – div across multiple indicators on the hourly. IMO expecting to find support at the 2632 pivot before turning upwards to complete an ED for a b-wave irregular flat in the 2680 vicinity before retesting the Feb lows.

  17. Early morning, I tried to pick the bottom at 2670 and lost.
    I switched teams based on my signal on the last bounce and now I’m in the green. Thank God!
    The 1HR is borderline (+), but sustained time below 2660 will make it flip.
    I’m sure the VIX is popping with this retracement, so even though it’s below 19, any news will make it move biggly higher and no longer an indication that SPX is heading higher. (i.e., VIX below 19 is good for SPX.)
    I guess we are back in the triangle with a failed IHS.

  18. gary61b says:

    spx close 2665.

  19. #TimeStampCrazy

    For anyone interested, it is looking pretty good for today to be a Big Down set up, which would trigger with lower prices on Monday. This will be the second Big Down in a rwo, i.e. two big downs without an intervening Big Up. I do not think I’ve seen this before, and I went back through 50+ years of S&P daily charts at one time. I will have to check my notes. Best time to enter, imo, was at the open, second best time was about an hour ago per my tweet below. Market telegraphed this around 3:30 to 3:42 yesterday, in my opinion. No need to watch the VIX, HYG, the crackhead spread, CNBS, Zero-edge … just you and an S&P chart

  20. Page says:

    Protect your profit if you are long.

  21. Holly Silver says:

    Astonishing how this market seems to subdivide to ever smaller points. Like dividing a whole number in half and then halving that. on and on. never thought it could last this long. Should get the “TELL” soon. it should break decisively one way or other today. If not we wait.

  22. rd3777 says:

    High level distribution about complete….watch out below.

  23. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Mr C,I was liatening to WBBM today and the editor of the Dow Theory Report said ,”We have a bear market sell signal in the Dow Theory.”Any comments?Does that kind of signal mean anything in your analysis?Thanks.

  24. Outside day.
    Sellers had their say.

  25. Gosh. This is like being at Newbie’s stag party. The women are real tall, the men are short, and everyone is asleep, like the bears.


  26. phil1247 says:

    … above 69 and the am plunge
    was just a retest of the long that was front run yesterday …. (ovals )
    door to 2687 would open again

    getting too late for me
    see ya!

  27. jobjas says:

    breakout of the diagonal

  28. gary61b says:

    ES, 5 and 15 together with additional magnet at 64.75

  29. torehund says:

    Tony and all, enjoy the weekend🔆

    • fionamargaret says:

      CNCR…..etf for cancer immunotherapy hyper growth starter companies…2 best performer last year…thought you and Tommy might be interested….x

      • torehund says:

        Immunotherapy for cancer is hopefully leaving its infancy, alhough its risky business. Just holde Some shares in imuc, in case it goes off. Technology is possibly sound, but many factors have to come out right. Etfs are a lot more rounded but will pay off handsomely if biotech is in primary III.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Raymond James gave me an interesting little biotech company name…of course I have to find it first…my filing system is commonly post-it notes above my drawing board….
          What were you trying to ask me about the technicals in posting a sunset photo……I liked the surfing pic of you on the poster….
          Interesting folks attending (and not) the Summit of the Americas….

          • torehund says:

            The pickture was not me surfing, It was only me having a beer. If you have a Mail to send to I will send you a sunset pickture or 2 to post here🌻

  30. Peter Sliney says:

    Hmm, The $VIX is down and the market is down. The market is speaking with fork tongue. I’m guessing a large downside breakout is the most probable outcome with this type of volatility.

  31. E says:

    Demographics weakness is starting to come to the forefront now. From CNBC on why banks are falling despite earnings beat, “If you take a look right across the board, credit cards are down, auto is down, student loans are down, the corporate area is mixed to down.”. Looks like this may be the start of an earnings season that was too overhyped. The only “positive” force in my math yesterday looks also to be a dud. Ouch.

    • tommyboys says:

      Dent’s demographics thing has been shown to be pretty much ineffectual. Fewer creating credit card/student debt is a positive for the economy. All we hear from bears is debt, debt, debt. Well if it’s down is this bad too? All those funds aren’t disappearing, they’re just getting redistributed to other areas of the economy. If one has less debt they either save it, invest it or spend it. Any of these are a positive for the economy. Dent pumps fear.

      • E says:

        I think Dent is fundamentally correct, but his market timing is poor. I agree that debt reduction is normally a good thing, but I think it gets complicated when debt levels are already very inflated using artificially generated wealth.

        • mcgcapital says:

          This isn’t even debt reduction, it’s more debt saturation which is very bad news.. the whole system is reliant on ever expanding credit, if we reach a point where the average man is maxed out that’s when it topples over

    • Just empty CNBS blather. Pre-market when banks were up the boneheads were expounding on the strong balance sheets and positive forward perspective. Mute the volume and keep an eye on the screen ticker = sole value CNBS. MM’s having a good day. Ramp early…swoon enough to look like a buy opp and then drop it fast. Where did I read today’s MM’s are human behavioral shrinks more than market gurus.

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