Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +241

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 2.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher, and the trade deficit increased. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2659. It had closed at SPX 2645 yesterday. In the opening minutes it ticked up to SPX 2663, then pulled back to 2652 by 10am. After that a bigger rally to SPX 2672 by 11:30. Followed by an even larger pullback to SPX 2650. Then after  rally back to SPX 2672 just past 3pm, pullback to 2658 at 3:30, the market closed at 2663.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold dropped $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support is now at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 170K) at 8:30, FED chair Powell speech at 1:30, then consumer credit at 3pm.

After yesterday’s 40-point gap down opening, the market impulsed higher for the rest of the day, reversing 76-points, to finish the day over 30-points higher. Today the market gapped up at the opening, continuing that rally, hit a high of SPX 2672 early, then went into a trading range for the rest of the day. Thus far the SPX looks like it has impulsed quite nicely from Monday’s 2554 low to today’s 2672 high. And, we can count five completed waves down for wave C of the correction, to end a 3-3-5 flat at SPX 2554. As a result we posted a tentative green Int. wave iv label at that low. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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396 Responses to Thursday update

  1. ref SP500 60 min chart count…..not so sure I like that count pattern.
    Nope, not a wave count expert, but still. In my view, the SP 60 min.
    Looks like it needs an adjustment….that’s all…..

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Holly maybe you should start a newsletter…..

  3. ewmarkets says:

    Fractal: Left chart, COMP daily now. Right chart: a past daily chart that looks quite similar to COMP now. Did it look like it was about to water fall? Absolutely but a multi-day rally ensued instead, after which a water fall did ensue.

  4. torehund says:

    Happy weekend all of you and Especially Tony.
    My stance; its close to decision time either monster up or monster down, regardless Govs go bust financially. If we tackle it in a level-headed manner it will bring warmth back into the society, in the meantime Chicama Peru is the preferrable option. At least for me🌅〰🌅

    • torehund says:

      “The paradox of our time in history is that we have taller buildings, but shorter tempers, wider freeways, but narrower viewpoints. We spend more, but have less, we buy more, butenjoy less. We have bigger houses and smaller families, more conveniences, but less time. We have more degrees but less sense, more knowledge, but less judgment, more experts, yet more problems, more medicine, but less wellness.

      Lets embrace a change in society and attitude, this cant go on for very much longer, we will all be thankful.

      • That is an aphorism to go down in the archives of sociology, literature, and philosophy. Well spoken, Torehund.

        • torehund says:

          It sure is..Reading a book made by a friend and fellow surfer from Texas, its one of the quotes. Like me he drifted ashore into this arid landscape in north of Peru. Here you see yourself and where you came from with renewed clarity, frightening and enligthening to see inside wilst being situated outside. Most individuals spend considerable time pursuing goals that gradually loose their luster, then a phase shift occurs and we are redirected to something and/or somewhere else.

  5. Hi,Thanks Tony
    Last post was about a possible wedge on the DOW(blue),today there was a precise pullback to it’s upper trendline and closed at the breakpoint
    The wave looks corrective so far in my opinion,unless it is a 1-2,1-2
    Also could be developing a simetry

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thank you Asa…another beauty..x

      • fionamargaret says:

        Now Asa you were interested in GE, and I said it was going down to 13 or so if you were lucky, but 5 is where it could go….I mused perhaps the dividend had to be cut in order to reach that price, but 5 is still there…..

  6. stockop says:

    I see a near perfect ABC across the board in futures. wave 3 of 1 of 5 coming? proud of myself. didn’t get the lows today, but i got close enough. held off buying a lot longer than in the past. almost feels like a 4/21/2017 type situation. I bought that dip, and sold the close that proceeding monday 🙂

    the setup is there for lift off. busy as heck today and didn’t have time to really watch. reviewing my charts I am almost doubting myself with the 3 of 3s I see. they can’t all be, can they? I also see some incredibly bearish charts in place.

    Xi Jinping’s giving a speech next week. if he says anything along the lines of trying to make a deal with the United States, we will have news to cause it.

  7. rd3777 says:

    The Dow distribution triangle should produce a measured move down to 21,000 next week and could waterfall to 18,000…Monday should break the 200 DMA as the thrust down continues.

    • rd3777 says:

      A clear bearish picture in the JPN225,now in a 3rd wave down and should drop 1500 pts quickly in the next few days. The Nikkei is tied to the Dow which should drop 3,000 pts next week.

  8. aahmichael says:

    “Don’t worry, it’s just a negotiating tactic”

    – things you never say at the beginning of a negotiation

  9. NEWBIE says:

    Can anyone help me count all the money I made today. You know its hard to count with these paws.

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