SHORT TERM: gap up opening then volatile day, DOW +389
Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up to SPX 2596 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2582 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to 2599, and then began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX had closed the opening gap and reached 2575. A rally followed, to a higher high at SPX 2607 by 11am. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2581 by 2:30. The market then rallied again, reaching SPX 2619 just before a 2614 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude gained 55 cents, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2656 pivots.
Set it up and try it again. Back in February the four major indices looked poised to end the 12% Intermediate iv correction. They all had confirmed downtrends around the same time, and there were positive divergences everywhere. The NDX/NAZ did confirm uptrends, but the SPX and especially the DOW failed to do so. Another selloff followed in late March, and the first trading day of April. Now after all these gyrations the market is right back to where it was at the February low. The potential end of an Int. iv correction with positive divergences on all daily charts. In addition, the rally from yesterday’s SPX 2554 low could be counted as impulsive. Interesting juncture as this bull market reaches another inflection point.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend