Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then volatile day, DOW +389

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up to SPX 2596 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2582 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to 2599, and then began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX had closed the opening gap and reached 2575. A rally followed, to a higher high at SPX 2607 by 11am. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2581 by 2:30. The market then rallied again, reaching SPX 2619 just before a 2614 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude gained 55 cents, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2656 pivots.

Set it up and try it again. Back in February the four major indices looked poised to end the 12% Intermediate iv correction. They all had confirmed downtrends around the same time, and there were positive divergences everywhere. The NDX/NAZ did confirm uptrends, but the SPX and especially the DOW failed to do so. Another selloff followed in late March, and the first trading day of April. Now after all these gyrations the market is right back to where it was at the February low. The potential end of an Int. iv correction with positive divergences on all daily charts. In addition, the rally from yesterday’s SPX 2554 low could be counted as impulsive. Interesting juncture as this bull market reaches another inflection point.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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364 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. stan911 says:

    Vix couldn’t close above 19.70 so any decline down in spx will be head fake

  2. tomorrow should be a big day. unsure of whats going on, so i will sit and watch till the AM.
    best of luck bull or bear.

    • Looks to be making a base for a move up or down per 15min chart.
      Big candle wicks on the top and bottom, so some indecision here.
      The last 2 candles hint at DOWN.
      15min = buy (but flat prices and any major move can flip it to sell); whipsawing on traders.
      1hr = buy
      4hr = buy
      Daily = sell
      Weekly = buy

  3. Bud Fox says:

    What I see….The SP500 appears to be in the process of creating a price top.
    2672 high appears to be a W3 high, with a W4 down, due next. Before a rally
    to the 5th wave top.

    • Bud Fox says:

      Add’l…the W4 down, into the 2650-2625 range should
      create the W4 low. From that low (4), I would expect a
      strong price advance to new price highs above 2801.
      The question we would like to know is, will the advance
      from a test of 2872 low be strong enough to see new price highs
      be put into place? I would like to see prices reach 2890, or better
      this month, or early May….IMHO

  4. Jack kendo says:

    micky, is following the impulsive count you are looking for?
    maybe this is the count for you perma bears.
    i am on the bullish view with the posted W bottom picture. but currently my view is hedged with puts.

    • H D says:

      Didn’t you take Tony’s course? We count ABC down.

      • Jack kendo says:

        that impulsive count is for perma bears like rd3777, newbie, fiona, holly …
        i am with bullish view with the following oew count:

        • mcgcapital says:

          Lol.. aren’t you the perma bear who was calling crash to under 1800 all the way from 2400 to 2800s? Then when the price pattern weakens you’re calling a massive rally. No disputing bulls in control after last few days but it’s hard to know whether it takes off from here or falters somewhere

          • Jack kendo says:

            lol, i am a bull now, it’s called monitor, adjust ==)
            i certainly was wrong Q4 2017, but now is 2018.
            Jeff Saut was Intermediate Term bearish since late Aug 2490 for 2017, now 2018, he adjusted to bullish.
            i see you are a perma bear? but you positions flip-flopping between long and short so many times, lol

            • mcgcapital says:

              I’m a bear overall on the macro and have been for about 3 years as we’re too reliant on low rates and debt.. it’s a matter of when not if that we have another financial crisis IMHO. Trades I’m pretty much 50/50 as the market moves up and down.. this rally needs to hold now.. if it doesn’t then the markets in trouble.. still looks a bit different to the October 2011, September 2015 and February 2016 bottoms to me, and that has me cautious as it’s taken a long time to bottom

        • That’s along the line with what I have;i finished first thing this morning with ii on going.

  5. Kisshu2 says:

    Thanks Easter Bunny Bawk Bawk

  6. stan911 says:

    If the vix closes at or above 19.70 market will will get a smack down tomorrow

  7. jobjas says:

    Now 150 point drop from 2672

  8. Anyone else think they’re making it hard today? 🙂
    Getting WHIPPED!

  9. vivelaamo says:

    I think yesterdays reversal ended the correction. Time to BTFD!!!

  10. fionamargaret says:

    2465 is still in the sequence…

  11. learnedmylesson25 says:

    What’s the item that doesn’t go with the other 3?
    A)Dollar up
    B)Yen getting pummeled vs dollar
    C)Gold down $12-under support
    D)GDX up(not down the expected 3-5%).
    GdX won’t break support at 21.75.Hmmm.

  12. rd3777 says:

    E waves are powerful….the thrust down out of this triangle will be wonder to behold….

  13. phil1247 says:


    ed at 72? ……….. gone

    see ya!

  14. Page says:

    This rally will be sold at the end of day, may close red.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Page – Disagree strongly – Today and tomorrow will be max pain for the bears as short closing rally feeds on itself. In trader parlance … a massive face ripper.

  15. CampFreddie says:

    They will keep squeezing this today all the way up to 2720 / 2730. aimho.

  16. Jack kendo says:

    2668, out of all my long positions from 2 days ago, and switched to the other side.
    Déjà vu, something i don’t like.

  17. NEW QUARTER >> big banks and fund managers are not using those standard indicators you can find in any free charting program.<< they'll be feeding the bull near term. Another stab up, either a failed 5th or a "barely" new high–sideways— and then we'll get that good correction that should undercut the lows we've seen this year imo.

  18. The Nasdaq gapped over the last down trend line this morning. I guess a test of it is in order.

  19. rd3777 says:

    A crash down is imminent as this market is exhausted trying to fill the gap @24,500

Comments are closed.