Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, then volatile day, DOW -724

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2679 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2712 yesterday. Just before 10am the market rebounded to SPX 2696, but reversed and dropped to 2662 by 11:30. The market then rallied to SPX 2685 by 12:30, dropped to 2670 by 1pm, then rallied to 2690 by 1:30. After that it headed right back down toward the lows of the day. In the closing hour the SPX hit 2642, then closed at 2644.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 2.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.35%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods at 8:30, then new home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the second time this week. Monday’s gap down broke the impulsive possibility of an uptrend. Today’s gap down broke support around SPX 2700, and the market moved much lower. Overall, a big day on the downside. The recent C wave decline has nearly reached a 61.8% retracement of wave B (2533-2802), and there is a potential positive divergence at today’s low. Due for a bounce in this volatile environment? Looking out a few days/weeks, a return to SPX 2533 appears to be the markets objective. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum displaying a +div. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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330 Responses to Thursday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Let’s see where we close….

  2. kvilia says:

    Out of UVXY for now. Black Monday is too easy, looking for a day up before resuming downtrend Tuesday.

  3. Jack kendo says:

    DJI potential bullish Bat pattern, new low to invalidate.
    seducing bulls to buy ==)


  4. rabbittrader1 says:

    The SPX is ,so far , looking good for a close above 2633. Even better would be a close above 2644. Buying May 18 call options at 46 strike price Holding even if we get a drop to 2528 . Rabbit

  5. vivelaamo says:

    Everyone expected more downside due to ‘trade wars’ and will be blind sided when we rally.

  6. alexh110 says:

    Not as much downside momentum as I expected today.
    Closed all my shorts between 2627 and 2637.
    Have rotated to an unhedged long; but will re-hedge if we drop below 2625.

  7. calling it a day with a 309.00 profit. been whipped around to much today. will let things settle. have a nice weekend everyone. see ya on Monday

  8. gary61b says:

    +d worked at Tonys 2632 pivot, 2635 needs to hold, then looking for 2675 or 2681 another rejection level.

  9. alexh110 says:

    Took profits on some of my shorts at 2627, just to be on the safe side.
    Don’t think the selling’s done despite the triple dip on the hourly RSI. Suspect we may get a quadruple dip. This would mirror the left shoulder of the RSI inverse h&s centred around this week’s 2694 low.

  10. on the 5 min, nice bear flag forming.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …think we will slice through the 200 DMA…

        • That’s wishfull thinking… lets get under the 2632 first where its holding at the moment. Possibly forming another bear flag on the 5 min chart.
          If we get to the 2580 today I will take some profit and go short again on Monday if the market says so.. don’t want to hold on my puts over the weekend.

        • Fiona: I’m with you although I respect Tony’s pivots, my overall impression of this market is that the 200 day ma on the SPX will be broken. I’m not trading on this but have arranged my holdings to reflect a big down. I saw the 1973-1974 slow decline, the 1987 sharp crash and those other following declines. This seems like a big decline coming like that 2009 crash low. Big Volume coming, most of the prior leaders now in trouble…FB downside will lead the rest, down too.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Good stuff Steve…you don’t look old enough to have been through all that history.
            I was just looking at the spatial distribution on my scatterplot, and think through the 200 is a done deal….but rabbits have been pulled out of hats before.
            I hope your health is improving Steve, and you have a relaxing weekend…x

            • Thanks, I’m still kicking but have my ups and downs…the 200 day has been proven to be most important and worked well for me over the years, but you can’t buy them all, eventually even those no longer apply.

        • Next Big Down targets are 2459 to 2500, fiona, so a little bit of time with price<200DMA looks more possible now than it has in a year and a half or so. Until we see a Big Up, Big Down it is. If anyone is interested, a close below the 2/9 close will get my attention.

        • Gregg Thompson says:

          Bingo thank you!!

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Anybody playing natural gas?

  12. phil1247 says:


    bull above 2633… looking for 2665 2670 area today
    then if chris carolan is right … gap up monday

    see ya!

  13. learnedmylesson25 says:

    If this is 1987,today the afternoon should get ugly.If anyone remembers,after a big selloff Friday previous to Black Monday,that Monday started off higher and then cascaded down–correct?
    FTSE has bearishly embedded.Later all.

  14. I see the trade war making plying a bad example on Wall Street, not very patriotic and at side of the “average Joe”. I want to see a better salary and a better job for Joe Average and therefore will never short this Market where Chinese and eventually Russian money is pulling out in force to try to make us withdraw the rate and the intellectual property decision and to keep us economically slave and at their salary level. So, trusting on the good will of the American People in money power I think we will see a sensible revers more soon then thought.

  15. gary61b says:

    ES If we do make it down to 2634 I would be looking for a +d on 60.

  16. Looks like a typical “set up”, Futures way down overnight and before normal trading, then the sucker rally to get the retail people long again. Hoping for a rebound, then later on a massive bust down….btw, whoever posted that the 200 day ma is important, I agree! Once broken and down sharply we might be looking at 2007 again. I’m just watching here but not a believer in the long side. Big triangles everywhere, loss of big money leadership…smells lousy to me.

  17. fotis2 says:

    Gold…. There is a valid DT on daily however if it breaks the upper TL I would be looking to longs with a very decent upside target cancelling the DT and turning that pattern into a Bullflag

  18. mcgcapital says:

    Why is American politics so divided? Both sides seem to genuinely hate each other and both make good and bad points.

    In the UK, i’d actually not care that much as a Conservative if Labour won an election. When the time is right for a change the right government seems to be the one that ends up in power anyway. Tends to be 1 or 2 elections then change to the other party anyway

    • Because supporters of both political parties view either party as either far left or far right. The truth is that the Republicans are more moderate and the Democrats are FAR LEFT. And the media hypes up the FAR LEFT views, so it’s fight fight fight. Without the media, most people would take on the moderate positions, and the crazies in either party would relax; but social unrest is what the left and media want. Likewise, hillary was a shoe-in until she wasn’t, so the left are going crazy because America got it right. Not to mention, she is doing a global tour bashing Americans for not voting for her…sexism, agism, blah blah blah.

      • aahmichael says:

        Such nonsense. There are lots of moderates in both parties. There are also extremes in both parties. You claim to be a moderate, yet your response is extreme.

        • What is extreme about it? No political views at all. Just facts.
          You don’t believe:
          1. Social unrest is what the media and left want?
          2. You don’t see hillary bashing American voters?

          You’re the one leaning too far left and have drank your kool-aid today.

        • Holly Silver says:

          GIVE IT UP! Just say your peace and let it go. They will never understand. After 18 months knowing Trump can you honestly tell me anything or anyone will ever change? To me it’s as obvious as the days in the week.

    • Likewise, how’s that UK environment working for you guys? Being a slave of the EU, importing terrorists and sexual predators; Rotherham sex abuse scandal?

      Elections have consequences.

      • Pfff…. this comment says everything about you.
        I live in Switzerland for the last 12 years and I am very in tune with the European politics and social situation.. before Switzerland I lived in Miami and in Dallas for a total of 11 years… MCGcapitals question and observation is correct… America seems to be a nation of extremes…

        • aahmichael says:

          There is no doubt that America is a divided country, and there are extremes on both sides, but there are also plenty of people in the middle. However, since the extremes make the most noise, then they get the most attention. Of course, we also have a President who feeds the extremes and perpetuates them. His goal is to keep the country divided, as he thinks that’s his key to staying in office.

          • tommyboys says:

            It not HIS goal. It’s the swamps’. They have NO interest in giving up their power and corrupt income. Before you go on an emotional rant I’m talking BOTH sides of the isle. This system we’ve had for decades needs an oil change desperately. Trump the man for the job.

            • jjjzzzwww says:

              Self-interested, womanizing, draft-dodgers ARE the swamp (include bill clinton)

              • Thing about the swamp… they are in every countries politics.. The swamp has always been the bureaucrat who hangs onto his political office and disregards the wishes of the people. In my opinion, what needs to be cleaned up is the lobbies and the way campaigns are funded…

              • tommyboys says:

                Agree much of the swamp surrounds the lobbyists – in fact a very large percentage – 75-85% likely. Sickening.

              • tommyboys says:

                Any man wanting to be president has GOT to have an ego. Likely even larger than many on this board! A male ego THAT large is GOING to be a womanizer no question. I have no problem with that – it comes with the territory. If a guy wants to screw up his personal life that’s HIS business. He better make sure his policies however benefit ME – the American taxpayer. Couldn’t care less what he does behind closed doors, although he better not be doing it in my White House. Anywhere else. Trump may have screwed around a decade or two ago but Slick Willie did it in the Oval Office during his tenure. Big difference but doesn’t affect either’s policies.

            • aahmichael says:

              Tommy, in every one of your posts, you accuse everyone else of being emotional, yet you are the only one who always types in caps and exclamation points, not to mention your constant use of ad hominem attacks. So, who is the emotional one?

            • Got to admit, tommyboys, he kinda has you there. I’ve noticed the same thing, to tell the truth.

              Fact is, folks who blather about contemporary American politics on a trading blog are all emotionally unfettered to some degree.

              Now, please, may we get back to the markets?

        • The Swiss are different.
          1. They do not allow the mass immigration.
          2. They allow more personal freedoms like gun ownership.

          What I am saying is TRUTH. You don’t see it because you don’t want to.
          My comment of mass immigration and sexual assaults are all true.

          • Last comment on this thread, as I did not want to politicize this.
            1. umm yes they do… we are part of Schengen.. the people do not want it but parliament has stalled it and as of today any European can come, this includes immigrants from African countries who frst come in through Europe.
            2. freedom is not measured by gun ownership. But ok, have your guns so more kids can be shot.
            3. So only you speak the Truth? and that’s conservative and not extreme?

      • vivelaamo says:

        Terrorists are a threat to the UK but not as much as many Americans are to themselves.

        I can’t seem to remember the last time there was a mass shooting in the UK.

        Anyway Mcg’s post was about politics. The majority of people in the UK dont lose sleep if the party they voted for doesn’t get elected. We move on with life.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      I dislike the political banter on the site but the challenge we face is all about demographics. The democratic party has decided that identity politics is the driving force behind their movement. Their goal is to broaden their base of varying non-white male demographics. If you happen to be a white male, or a middle class family that’s dependent on a white male, they are not particularly interested in your concerns. That may sound racist, but I live in a multi racial family and that’s the way we see it. As a result, many middle class voters have split from the dems and now identify with anyone who says they will address their concerns. More separation, more hostility.

  19. phil1247 says:


    trade above 2646 opens the door to 2665

  20. Good morning all. Bearish overnight session and not only with the futures in all major index’s down.. As I indicated last night, I was expecting a 25 point counter-trend rally back up to a 50% SHORT. The one caveat was a 50% micro short extension and it traded in the overnight session (note the high anchor, /ES 2663 /dotted white line of a technical low, that formed this anchor…. THAT THE EXTENSION SHORT DEFENDED..(that is the key.).. It is uncommon for /ES to trade in extension SHORT (usually longs).
    Because of the magnitude of the decline in the overnight session and an extension SHORT traded and defended, the new UPDATED profit targets (dotted green line) are 2606.39 and 2598.37

  21. fotis2 says:

    To all Trump haters what really bothers you is that now you have someone who is actually acting as a president should and calls the shots himself instead of just being the mouthpiece/puppet of the majority elite.I’m apolitical,this is an observation based on Trump hate comments,views,takes etc.etc here and all over the mass media propaganda run by them.So shortcut to happiness,accept the fact,close the book and get on with your lives.

  22. vivelaamo says:

    Don’t underestimate the power of the 200 dma. At least for a bounce. Lot of crash callers about.

    Holly giving us 50% chance of Nuclear war!

    • tommyboys says:

      LOL – irration and emotion rule with the left. Likely a green open with all the connecting news (90% fake) and markets going on here.

  23. purplember says:

    Stock market and main street are often inversely related. what’s good for middle class americans, isn’t always good for stock market. How often in last 20 years have we seen a company announce layoffs or moving jobs overseas to some guy or gal making 25 cents an hour and Wall st celebrates. the Stock moves up 20%

    some like / some hate trump but you can’t deny he is fighting for middle class america. tariffs for a level playing field will help american workers. NAFTA renegotiation as it was a total crap policy. Clinton says he is for middle class then moves good jobs to other countries – yet unions still backed him.

    Trump is reversing total crap policies by both GOP & Dems for past 25 years and it will be a bumpy road.

    • vivelaamo says:

      As a non US citizen it seems to me like those that don’t like Trump tend to be those better off. So yes stock market declines will affect them.

      It’s like with Brexit. Those that are most against tend to be the ones that aren’t as affected by being in the EU.

      Seems to be every man for himself.

      • tommyboys says:

        Great observation Viv. Dems have morphed to power hungry oligarchs under the guise of “helping the little guy”. It’s become the “limousine left to the rescue”. Hollywood elites sit back in their towers and tell us what’s best for the middle class. Biggest libs on the planet had a “roundtable” the other night – Liz Warren (Pocahontas), Bernie Sanders (never had a shot), Michael Moore etc… and discussed “income inequality”. Not one of them worth less than $50M!! LOL Dems have become the party of hypocrites. Obamas, Clintons all became wealthy by “serving” the US citizens in government positions. Bout time we have a person that actually worked in the private sector, that understands how an economy works and donating his servant pay to charity and he doesn’t need an entitlement – hand out – running the show.

        • aahmichael says:

          Donating his servant pay while giving himself a $5bn tax cut.

          • aahmichael says:

            Living his exact same lifestyle as before becoming President, but now all expenses paid by the taxpayers. Violating the emoluments clause by using the office of the Presidency to enrich himself through his private businesses.

            • pageoturner says:

              I guess you’d be more sympathetic if he had been a failed community organizer who was always dependent on a government check and who never lived so well before becoming President. You be more adoring if, like his predecessor, his vacations pre-presidency were spent at Holiday Inns and so billing the taxpayer for millions of dollars in glitzy vacations for himself, his wife, his mother-in-law and their 30 closest friends forever would be admirable. Right?

              Trump had big homes, private jets, helicopters and more money than he could spend before he ran for president. He EARNED IT being immensely successful in multiple businesses over decades.

              He didn’t need to do this or put up with the smug scorn of folks like you and others whose fortunes depend on stealing from taxpayers as so many of our “political leaders” and their families have done for decades.

              • aahmichael says:

                Trump “earned” his money via 6 bankruptcies and multiple million dollar fines and settlements. In his wake of “earning” his money, he left behind 10s of thousands of people who he stiffed and never paid. He’s a con man.

          • NEWBIE says:

            aahmichael, To say he gave it to himself is a stretch. The tax cut needed to be approved by Congress, it was not arbitrarily decided and executed by Trump himself.

          • pageoturner says:

            So you’re still a fan of Obama – the worst economic (and legislative) president in US history? The only president in 240 years who NEVER had one year of 3% GDP growth? Even during the depression the US had 3% GDP growth. Obama told us we had to get used to failing and falling behind the rest of the world. You admire that?

            You also are still a fan of the woman with a decades long reputation as a pathological liar who clearly was not competent to even tell the truth about maintaining national security secrets. You think SHE would have looked out for what’s best for YOU when she clearly was selling you out to get rich?

            You think the politicos and bureaucrats who take taxpayer money to enrich themselves and their families give 2 hoots about YOU or the law?

            If YOU want to pay more in taxes, you may. No law against it.

            • aahmichael says:

              Ummm…are you aware of the economic disaster that Obama inherited from Bush? By the way, I don’t want to pay more taxes, but Trump and his Republican goons raised my taxes $35k with their idiotic so-called tax reform bill.

        • scorp100 says:

          I am sorry, but you are beyond repair. In your hate towards dems, are can’t think straight.

        • jjjzzzwww says:

          Orwellian doublespeak

      • aahmichael says:

        Vive, remember that Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million votes. His base of support is only about 33% of the population and they are mostly non-college educated racist white people. He also get support from Evangelical Christians who only care that he nominates conservative Supreme Court justices, in hopes of outlawing abortion.

        • stockop says:

          i am a YOUNG recently graduated college educated white american male who voted for trump and would do it again every single time. get out of your echo chamber you elitist $#%&. the media lies to you and you believe it. he got 33% of the hispanic vote after his asinine comments about mexico.

          really the point of my commenting is in the hopes that some of you people can see that you’re wrong and he has a lot more support than WAPO and NYTimes tell you. i am not racist. trump says a ton of stupid things I do not agree with (Charlottesville for example), but it is no different than Obama encouraging the Ferguson riots (“that could have been my son!”, which were anti-white and anti-police riots, pick your poison).

          The main reason for Trump is NOT HILLARY. I appreciate your comments for the most part aahmichael, but #%^& YOU for generalizing and calling me a racist. its your elitism that is turning generation Z into the most conservative in 5 decades, so in a way maybe I should be thanking you and not taking it personally? learn to debate and not just hurl insults. seems all both sides do anymore is deflect and insult, straight out of the Clinton playbook (hint hint, Rules for Radicals)

        • pageoturner says:

          Try reading the Constitution. It contains the “checks and balances” you referred to above. Of course, you only like the checks and balances you agree with.

          All animals are created equal but some are more equal than others, eh?

        • +1.

          AAH, don’t waste your precious time. The problem is a very deep one and T has exploited it to the max. Either way(no matter who is in charge) the people in the country get stiffed. I think it may be eons before anyone gets to see a true leader again. A seismic shift has to occur in education and thinking and behaving — there is a great need for more heart, more brain and less flag.

  24. hohoho598 says:

    It’s a joke really, you guys keep talking about “draining the swamp” yada yada, and when someone actually comes along and smacks a few heads, omg I am in panic mode cause the market is not going up…

    Get real, Trump is the best thing to come along for ages, I hope he finds the right people to that will just stick by him and tow the line. The turkeys he’s fired obviously didn’t want to drain the swamp fast enough. Go Mr “T”.

    The rest of the world leaders, are just crying because their personal agendas have taken a back seat, and they actually have to do some work to rebuild trade relationships.

    • tommyboys says:

      OMG a non-emotional rational poster – WTF? The US sure has become the red headed stepsister… Thanks hohoho & Merry Christmas – its OK to say this now 😳‼️

      • hohoho598 says:

        Indeed merry Christmas, the last 2 months have filled my stocking to blowup proportions, more that 2016 and 2017 combined (geez they were boring years).

  25. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Strange item of the night:FTSE futes only down 20.Probably because Trump excluded EU from tariffs,but s t i l l…they’ve got a bear flag to complete at 6600.Let’s go!!!!

    • tommyboys says:

      WAY too much connecting news to markets and irrational emotion here past few days. Green open likely and bottom prolly in and a higher low C wave completed.

  26. jobjas says:

    SPX count for any one who believes in EW fractals

  27. lunker1 says:

    Daily BB Close
    SPX under
    NYMO under
    VIX over

  28. Page says:

    Do not pay attention to futures, may open green tomorrow.
    The markets turn around is 100% tomorrow.

  29. fenster6 says:

    Wasn’t there some here who said tariffs are good for the market and the economy?

    The perpetrator of this says ‘trade wars are good’

    Many trade wars ended in real wars.

    • lunker1 says:

      Which are good for the market as well

      • fenster6 says:

        They can be if not catastrophic. I dont think the German or Japanese stockmarkets fared too well in the 1940’s
        Rothschild said “Sell the trumpet, buy the canon”

        Which has many interpretations.

    • pageoturner says:

      The US government was founded on tariffs funding federal government expenses. It was thus from day 1 until the income tax – which the founding fathers were adamantly against and required a Constitutional amendment to change.

      The founding fathers knew best.

  30. Holly Silver says:

    China announced imposing tariffs of their own. Here we go, Game, set, match. Lets see the world markets shrug this off. Only the two largest economies in the world attacking each other. Nothing the markets should be concerned about. You see the markets don’t care about fun-da-mentals. they have a set technical path and follow it. BTW China just passed us as the largest economy.

    IF the market opens less than 1 percent down short it. If the market actually ends the day flat or positive short it. The weekend will not calm fears, only escalate them. Watch trump tweet his way to oblivion. He now has carbon copies of himself in the WH. Kelly a man of high integrity boasted he fired Tillerson while on the toilet. I am living in a lunacy nightmare. The world is finally waking up to the same fact.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Rick Ackerman’s proprietary momentum chart. he states convincingly the overshoot past the “P” target is a strong indication it goes all the way to the “D” target at 22,822 on the INDU. It (DOES NOT) however predict daily action only final move.

    • rksleung says:

      I bet you if grandma still reigns, no one cares. Because grandma was known to send out Bullard or herself to calm the market every time. This Powell still an unknown.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Trump says China’s Xi is “president for life” — and maybe America should try it.

      Declaring war on a man with that much power with a guarantee that you have no chance of ever winning means only two possibilities exist. ONE: you’re insane TWO: got instructions from Putin.

      Circuit breakers unlikely to be seen. Need a one day drop of 7% for first breaker to trigger. Perhaps the markets rally tomorrow, who knows. Crazy world we are living in.

    • zvyezda says:

      The real danger is super-NeoCon Bolton coming on board. The person he should be firing is the one who is coming up with all these establishment losers for him to chose from.

  31. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks and much love to Tony…..and everyone xx

  32. scottycj1 says:

    Both my charts can be right….finishing the C wave tomorrow for the triangle and looking at the SPY it could be we are finishing wave 2 of 5….whichever one it is it means we are going up. Dont think we are going into the 2500’s. As I’ve been forecasting for at least 10 days tomorrow will be a low.
    Low of Triangle C or Wave 2. Other than Vivian Lame-O everyone here is bearish. Here is the Wave 2 count….complete with bullish B wave of 2.

    Spy Wave 2

    SPX Triangle

    • alexh110 says:

      Why complicate things by introducing an Int iv triangle rather than a flat?

      • scottycj1 says:

        I’ve been looking for a triangle since early Feb after the bottom…….Dont think the high is in 3100 to 3200 before this is over. Triangle makes sense……still lots of momentum and a lot of doubt = triangle

    • tommyboys says:

      You have been calling a low (due to a cycle?) for tomorrow the 23rd. You may be bang on – which would be incredible.

      • scottycj1 says:

        You dont pay that close attention……..I have many more on the money calls than you can imagine…….But I have learned most dont remember what anybody’s said.
        Dont know why I wast my time…..God help you Anthony

        • tommyboys says:

          Wow thought I was complimenting you on your work. Sorry will add you to the growing ignore pile.

    • I have been talking about a large triangle for week also…..there are a few things that could make this rip alot lower……..still alot of people looking at this as wave 4 when wave 5 could be finished……..margin calls are knockin now on alot of peoples doorstep now and this is still uncannily looking like 1987 and 1929…….. almost to a T.

  33. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is ES at

  34. alexh110 says:

    For some time now I’ve been tracking inverse h&s patterns on the hourly RSI. Since the ATH there’ve been three of them. They’re pretty easy to spot on Tony’s SPX chart, and since we have a set of three, it seems logical to assume that together they form a larger inverse h&s pattern that’s almost complete. The heads of the patterns occurred in mid-February at 2593, early March at 2647 and earlier this week at 2694.
    We’re currently in the right shoulder of the right shoulder. This should itself subdivide into a mini-inverse h&s: so there ought to be three dips altogether forming a double positive divergence (similar to those at the 2532 and 2647 lows). Currently we’re in the second dip: so it seems very likely the third dip will play out tomorrow.
    This should take the market back to 2532 or lower, and since the pattern of three consecutive inverse h&s’s will then be almost complete, tomorrow’s low should end Int iv.

    • alexh110 says:

      Typo: should say “early February at 2593”.

    • mcgcapital says:

      How confident are you we get right back to the lows or lower? I’ve just been reviewing lots of charts:

      FTSE – looks pretty rough on the weekly and daily but is just about as oversold as it gets. Means a bottom probably not far off in terms of time but could be a bloodbath short term

      Dax and Nikkei – both similar, 2% ish from a triple bottom. Dax in particular on this move down from 12400 area has been really hard work on the downside, not been very easy to sell it down at all as it feels like there’s some buying pressure underneath.

      Dow – 2% ish from retesting the lows.

      SPX – 2% ish from the 200 dma

      I’m thinking we could get a last move down, make a higher low and then rally. The key phrase on the tariffs thing is ‘if no agreement can be reached’. Trumps style is to negotiate hard but in the end I’d be surprised if this escalated. The market got what it wanted from the Fed yesterday (3 hikes this year) and earnings season just around the corner. If the tariffs issue can be resolved then the newsflow is potentially turning around at the same time as the technicals being washed out.

      But if we don’t hold the areas I’ve mentioned then no idea how low it ends up going.

      • alexh110 says:

        My analysis relies more on timing than price: seems likely the bottom will come tomorrow, or Monday latest.
        The actual level is uncertain, but it seems logical the market will make a double-bottom at 2532 to complete an a-b-c from the ATH; or go slightly lower, perhaps to Fiona’s suggested level of 2465?

        Have observed many 3-3-5 patterns since the ATH: so we should get 5 waves down from 2739 to complete a 3-3-5 from 2802. Currently we’re in wave 3 of 5: so I expect quite a lot more downside.

        Monthly RSI could end up close to neutral for March, as it did in 1996 after a similar market melt-up.

        Fingers crossed I’m right, as I’m holding a large short from 2717!

  35. learnedmylesson25 says:

    S&P futes charts are in high velocity mode–similar to BitCon again.The opening ought to be fairly dramatic for a few minutes.Yen strengthens some more and gold opens its eyelids (barely)to stir a $5 gain so far.Should be $50.Later all.

  36. CampFreddie says:

    Sincere kudos to all the Bear traders here, hope you all did well.

  37. aahmichael says:

    There’s an old adage, “never on a Friday,” which refers to the fact that the market almost never reverses on a Friday. However, the reversals on 2/9 and 3/2 proved that nothing in the market is 100%. I don’t expect them to be able to reverse it tomorrow, though.

    • Futures down on Trump appointing John Bolton as NSA Director…very hawkish but smart and knows where all the skeletons in the State Dept are buried.

      • aahmichael says:

        He was one of the main people responsible getting us into the Iraq war, yet Trump says that was the worst decision the US has ever made. Trump hired him anyway, because he’s been moonlighting as a Fox News commentator. What a joke.

        • tommyboys says:

          Great pick – Go Trump! #MAGA!!

          • aahmichael says:

            Tommy, you would cheer if Trump picked Hitler. Actually, Bolton comes close to that. McMaster was one of the last remaining rational people there. Now the only one left is Mattis. No doubt he’ll be gone soon too.

        • 1 person got us into the war with Iraq..and his name was President George Bush

          • aahmichael says:

            After being pushed by John Bolton.

            • Holly Silver says:

              I gave the odds of a nuclear conflict in trumps full term at 50%. I saw this coming last year and was crazed over the possibility. trade war is a given, but we can live thru that. Trump is unhinged and that’s why the house stopped the investigation. he is the most dangerous when he fells cornered and decides he has nothing to lose. Mueller has the goods on him already. The Trump Tower deal in Moscow sealed it. Obstruction, collusion, ethics violations all have hard evidence. I suspect trump fires Mueller soon or replaces Sessions or Rosenstein that will. Constitutionals crisis is also looming big. he can’t seem to find a competent lawyer to represent him anymore.

              **** Disclaimer: A political concern that has devastating implications.

              • aahmichael says:

                Tonight’s futures decline is all about Bolton. He’s gonna rip up the Iran deal, which means Trump probably won’t even speak to NK now, because there is no point anymore. Iran will start their nuke program back up, which means the Saudis will have to create one too. How does that Country Joe McDonald song go? “Whoopee, we’re all gonna die…”

              • tommyboys says:

                Wow emotional libs are panicked tonight. Nuclear war, nazi references wow lol. News flash – Clintons were far closer to Hitler against US citizens than Trump could ever hope to be. Wow…

        • rd3777 says:

          That Cheney,Bush,Pearl,Wolfowitz,Rice,Kristol,ect all should be hung till dead!

          • Jack Sparrow says:

            tommyboy no one is panicked (not that i am a lib) but i have been reading your posst for one year..all you do is applaud trump, when he brought the first cabinet you said what a great guy, when he fired most of it -you said what a great guy.. it would be good to use your brain for a change. when he fires his present selection which you are applauding right now – i bet you will say what a great guy

            • vicavale says:

              Thank you, Jack Sparrow. Glad to see there are some true patriots here on our beloved Tony’s site. From my Revolutionary Soldier ancestors–four of them– I love this country. Will fight for it as they did….against the Orange Menace. Nothing good about him…a constant liar. But, lots good about our beloved country. OEW is amazing. Follow the fibs. Thanks everyone and Tony! I humbly bow before this great country!

        • vicavale says:

          Absolutely! HaHaHa! Can’t wait for the damage the idiot will do. Poor Choice, Pres Idiot! Is your wife next inline for a government job??? I’m sure she will only wear couture/

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Didn’t everyone know of Trumps trade plans the whole of last year? I don’t know anything about it. Does it even matter to the stock market?

    • See my post below. Trump/Ross’s statements that additional tariffs against China could happen. That was a total surprise to investors and this announcement was certainly not priced in the market. Not what Wall Street wanted to hear.

    • tommyboys says:

      Yes plans well telegraphed and why we elected him. This is all convenient news for the market now that was well due for a correction. The current “news” is NOT moving the market. Market MAKES the news.

  39. H D says:

    What a hit! Was there news? Warned against that triangle. EW has very specific guidelines. Zero room for being flexible on triangles.

    “This is as good of a traders market as we may see for a long time. Use it wisely.”

    • fionamargaret says:

      McMaster. is out and John Bolton is his replacement….we are merely spectators…

  40. Thank you Tony sir.

  41. Hi,thanks Tony
    H&S target is about the same of the wedge
    DOW is nearly testing trendline
    Triangle target(orange),if confirmed ~21500(last wave was truncated?)

  42. R D. says:

    The market is now in wave 3 down. A break away gap today and tomorrow should produce a continuation gap down. I expect a waterfall event Monday Tuesday and wave 3 to bottom Thursday. A significant decline that should retrace the entire advance from wave Z from 1800.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Slow down there. Let’s at least see spx close under 200 daily sma first. Something it hasn’t done since November 2016!

      • hohoho598 says:

        Keep on buying the dip, that’s what we need to keep the merry go round movin’.
        I love trading, boring over the last 18 mths, now the big “V” is awakened, vallium sales have skyrocketed.

        “What do I do next?”, says the dipper.

        Lovin’ every minute of them sweating it out, MA’s, “big ups”, fibo’s, what to do, what to do.

        • vivelaamo says:

          If I was a trader I’d be loving the last 3 months. The market is actually doing what the charts are saying but in both directions!! That’s what it’s all about.

          I’m just a dip(stick) buyer. No time for anything else. Bought more at the 200 sma. If we crash from here then I’ll tske a break.

          Good luck mr professional trader.

      • rd3777 says:

        expect the market to give up 1100 to 1200 pts tomorrow.

  43. mcgcapital says:

    On the cash chart it looks quite symmetrical vs the Feb move. That would mean possibly a bounce then move back to the lows early next week. Maybe rebound tomorrow from oversold and tariffs escalate over the weekend? Have a hard time believing we will outright crash from here.. macro still good for now, yields coming down too. That’s a decent outlook for gains in the medium term.. even though I’m a macro bear I still think at least one more rally through spring/summer.

    The market has always looked like it wants to retest the Feb lows ever since the first rebound rally. What we’re seeing here is still normal in terms of a bull market correction.. let’s see what happens if/when we get back to 2500s.. rally off the lows should be a lot cleaner and less volatile if it’s going to make new highs

    As for comparisons to 1987, look at the chart going further back.. there had been much more vol time wise prior to it happening than we’ve been experiencing. Still only 8 weeks since we were in full bull mode, if this is a bear market would expect it to take longer to play out

    • mcg…IMHO, the market’s decline was exacerbated by 2 statements.
      1. Trump said there could be additional tariffs agisnt China.
      2. Wilbur Ross confirmed Trumps statement that there could be aditional tariffs against China. He is waiting for China to make their statement and is either exopecting a saving face statement or a token slap on the wrist ratailiation.

      Financail markets are totally differnt today than 1987. We have a proactive FOMC and many financial instruments to contril the market. What extend if any they will come to bear (excuse the pun on words) are on current trading activity is an open question in my mnd.

      If you read my post below whether it’s tonght in the oovernight session or after another 20 – 30 point decline, I expect, a rather large counter trend trade. Algorithms often ignore large moves that are based on news events….just in the back of my mind for now.

      • I too expect that counter-trend trade to keep the inmates guessing. The question is: will the momentum slow tomorrow to allow the turn. I think, for maximum uncertainty, sooner better than later. But as always, time will tell.

        Carolan says his tidal/sun/lunar work chart has turned up, market momentum is sharp enough to continue down. So we shall see.

        Isn’t Carolan that little girl who disappeared into her bedroom closet to hang out with that scary ghost Kane in Poltergeist? Seems like she has returned from the underworld as a market timer. Perhaps she knows something. May the force be with us. 🙂

  44. Good afternoon traders….this chart is for Fiona… (not going to jinx myself…will continue with the “for fiona fractal post” until it runs it course). Actually, this chart summarizes Tony C’s pivot, Holly’s low at “P”, phil’s profit target and last but certainly not least, Newbie the permabear…LOL.

    *OBSERVATION ONLY* With the above in mind, at the close, the/VX has plenty of room to run until it tests it’s next profit target. That would equate to approx. (my guess) another 20 points of downside activity to 2622 for /ES. The /ES has a downside profit target at 2625 BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY A -161.8% PROFIT TARGET AT /ES 2630….RARELY DOES A DECLINE GO PAST THE -161.8% TARGET (+ OR -). The +DIV that Tony mentioned in his update could coincide with the next measured move SHORT ….it’s all the way up there at /ES 2677..unless an extension comes into play, then the counter trend trade will complete at a lower level.

    Bottom line looking at /ES 2630 +/- as a possible low, interim low, wave “a'” in abc’s chart? But we could have a ramp first to /ES 2677.
    Full disclosure this is DH’s chart and mostly his analysis…I added some color….LOL


    • phil1247 says:

      asa .. this crash correlation continues to work for DH
      do you still doubt it will continue ?

      • yes, from memory, too lazy to look it up, wasn’t the 1987 a 21% crash? Don’t think we correct that much. My most bearish analysis at this time is either a double bottom or a irregular flat. Will listen to DH profit targets andmodify that call. Will never forget that day. Had a patient with a ACL reconstruction, she was on the phone with her husband and started crying hysterically. She told me she was closing on their house next week and had just about all their money tied up in equities mostly in IBM stock…..they were planning on selling their entire equity portfolio to buy their bouse.

      • phil …3/22 you have an update and a site for Chris Carolan’s call?

      • Hi Phil, you are right about oil reaching 66.14. What’s the next target after that? What would be the top?

        By the way, I think ES should have more downside to complete subwave b and c of minor wave C down, like DAX.

        Good luck to all!

        Humble Newbie

    • Holly Silver says:

      So you doubt, based on technical challenges we have a continuation of the slide beyond the 20 or so points lower tomorrow?

  45. phil1247 says:

    hope i made myself clear about the importance of 2693.25
    since it did not break
    you had to be prepared for 2651 to be hit
    good luck buddy !

  46. tomorrow shall be looking for a bounce at 2636. which will mean we would of had a decline of 186 points from 2802. a .50 retrace before the next leg down would be 93 points or 2732.
    then 1 more wave down . C=A 186. so 2732-186=2546 or the 1.618 of A =300 or 2432.
    Thats my plan and im sticking to it.

    Thanks Tony. Good luck all

  47. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  48. 123 abc says:

    A great Tony Thursday update, much appreciated!

    • Lee X says:

      Nice job by you also

    • Amazing stuff 123. It has played out remarkably consistent with your earlier charts.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Great chart and I certainly hope there is follow thru tomorrow. As for another chart I use it calls for a possible stall very close to where we finished. ESH18 lows today was at 2642. Critical support is at 2631.88. if it can break below tomorrow the next target is 2544.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Thank you for not posting your political views. What low are you referring to here? Measuring from the feb lows we have already taken out the 50% retrace at 2668.50. 2635.75 is 61.8 and is the level i would watch.

        • Holly Silver says:

          The green, orange, pink lines are the resistance points it could stall at. Odds greatly improve a breakdown event if the days move breaches below the target. that usually means there is more momentum behind the move.

          This chart is a momentum proprietary chart. the determination of starting and ending points DO NOT correspond to actual lows and highs.

      • Jack kendo says:

        Holly, Thank you
        I like the way you posting, a complete package of analyzing ( i see them as market related, not political) and with trade to support.
        still holding the “absurdly wild bets” you recommended 2 night ago, 300% gain so far. saved my minor loss on tqqq today.
        plan to hold through the expiration tomorrow, let it exercise till the end.
        hope you added some puts yesterday or today? any more trading idea?
        do you trade vix?

        Jack kendo says:
        March 21, 2018 at 10:44 am
        Holly, did you pull the trigger on the “absurdly wild bets”, or still considering?
        I entered some small orders as an insurance.
        I see that as a brilliant idea, thank you.

        • Holly Silver says:

          Yes I did add today when we had that early retrace. Also holding on for the follow thru tomorrow. no guarantees. I mentioned above we are near a strong support at 2631 but I personally doubt it holds for more than an hour or so. if it does break below it could be sharp and fast. I still think if China stays quiet the continuation down might not occur tomorrow.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Nicely charted. I’ve never liked including predictive waves on a chart but congrats nonetheless.

Comments are closed.