Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, then volatile day, DOW -724

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2679 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2712 yesterday. Just before 10am the market rebounded to SPX 2696, but reversed and dropped to 2662 by 11:30. The market then rallied to SPX 2685 by 12:30, dropped to 2670 by 1pm, then rallied to 2690 by 1:30. After that it headed right back down toward the lows of the day. In the closing hour the SPX hit 2642, then closed at 2644.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 2.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.35%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Tomorrow: durable goods at 8:30, then new home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the second time this week. Monday’s gap down broke the impulsive possibility of an uptrend. Today’s gap down broke support around SPX 2700, and the market moved much lower. Overall, a big day on the downside. The recent C wave decline has nearly reached a 61.8% retracement of wave B (2533-2802), and there is a potential positive divergence at today’s low. Due for a bounce in this volatile environment? Looking out a few days/weeks, a return to SPX 2533 appears to be the markets objective. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum displaying a +div. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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330 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Holly Silver says:

    Healthy market indeed! Q’s down 1.5 percent. Small caps .80 percent. People see what they preordained to see. i get excited when it falls into place for me. if i am wrong it will be revealed today. there is very little chance we continue the rebound if we stall today. that means we need an upside close. It can even be small. I have not seen a recovery off a steep drop where we rested on the second day of recovery.

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  2. vivelaamo says:

    Sorry to state the obvious here but why are so many people going nuts and crash calling when all we did was give back a blow off parabolic top? Zoom out and it looks quite healthy.

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  3. Just out of plain curiosity, does anyone here recall a single day or single days in the past where the SPX went up 2.72% or more? Thanks. J

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  4. Bud Fox says:

    SSO buy point is 97.21 or lower….for today

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  5. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Been checking out a few analysts and stockcharts had one scenario that caught my eye :Vix goes above 27–most likely will be no double bottom.30 for certain kills that..Gold above 1345 on a March closing basis would be bullish to 1500. (Keeping it above 1345 is the tricky part).If the equity/tariff chart has any validity,bond yields and dollar will fall and gold rise the next 3 months.HYG broke support at 85–last time that happened,it traveled to 84.Question:Was that a fake breakdown?We’ll see early Monday.Good luck all.

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  6. cj32 says:

    Like

  7. Bud Fox says:

    ref SSO, going long at any break below 97.21, watch it…

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  8. Lee X says:

    I have an idea on what could stop the squabbling here and it’s something that already exists.

    No political post
    No personal attacks
    No posting of trades
    3 post trade limit during trading hours

    Show some of that incredible discipline that makes a person here such a successful trader.

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    • phil1247 says:

      i agree to follow your lead…………..

      Liked by 1 person

      • Lee X says:

        Hey Phil ,
        Seems to me you’re not political or hateful , more of a counter puncher than aggressor and like us all you feel your way is the right way and your posts on intra day extensions are appreciated by me so for you , just do the best you can . 😉

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      • Thailand Hawaii says:

        Hi Lee, hows the weather there??? Come to Hawaii. It is always beautiful here !!! I have been a follower of this site longer than most. Tony has been very helpful over the years and his fibs have been very useful to me, as I have used fibs in my personal analysis since I first started trading. The recent volatility of the markets have made it necessary for me to be more short term, than I have been before. Phil and Asa have been very helpful to me with their short term analysis. I think Tony would agree, that as long as the markets are in this volatile state, it is necessary for them to post more often to give us the proper fib analysis.

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        • Lee X says:

          It’s horrible with a chance of even worse up here in Chicagoland

          Sounds good T H
          The politics here are the issue , everyone wants the last word and you have entities that only post about politics.

          Imo Tony upset alot of people here with his independent thinking and they’re in a constant state of “triggered” and have been dotting their underwear and posting an unreasonable amount of crap , both sides.

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