Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then choppy, DOW +116

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 8-points above yesterday’s SPX 2713 close. The market then moved up to SPX 2724, dropped to unchanged at 2713, then back to 2724 by 10:30. By noon the SPX had made a lower low at 2711. After a rally to SPX 2720 by 12:30, it hit 2710 by 3pm. A range bound day. A bounce ended the day at SPX 2717.

For the day SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude gained $1.35, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: the FOMC meeting concludes with an expected rate increase.

The market gapped down at the open on Monday, dropped through support at SPX 2732, and continued to fall until it hit 2695 in the afternoon. While we thought this was a possibility, we were not really expecting it to happen. But now that it has. It appears the SPX/DOW are still working their way through their Intermediate wave iv correction. Even thought the NDX/NAZ have already made new highs. We adjusted the short term labeling on the charts to reflects this view. Think it looks self-explanatory. Since Intermediate wave ii was an irregular ZZ. Intermediate iv could have been a simple ZZ, which we thought it had done at the SPX 2533 low, or a flat, or a triangle, or something even more complex. Short  term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day rising to just past neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend now looks more corrective than impulsive

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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415 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. mcgcapital says:

    Trimmed a bit more off 2800 shorts here.. still holding half of original position and stop down to 2745, although probably wouldn’t hold it that far on a rebound. Still see possibility of a low retest.. 2600 my target

  2. rabbittrader1 says:

    Rabbit sez. Possibly setting up for Rare “Bullish Abandoned Baby” ?

  3. micky says:

    support no 1 hit

  4. phil1247 says:

    es 73.5 then 71

  5. wildmarkets says:

    Tony or anyone- What if SPX fails to make new lows below February and starts the rally after higher lows. What would be that count?

  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    FTSE continues in a bear flag to 6600 PO.Five percent down from here minimum.Same for us?Chart from 2003 I posted 14 days ago, about tariffs and equities,had a two week lag from the time Bush announced them, to the start of the selloff in 2003.In 2003,equities did a bungee jump afterwards, to the tune of 30%.At the time I posted the chart, I mentioned,even if we only went down half that amount,it’d be a major selloff.Question is,can gold/GDX take advantage?Consolidating so far today.Later all.

  7. rabbittrader1 says:

    Parallel lines at tops of 2754 and 2799(extended), and bottoms of 2532 and 2679 (or 2670),extended; also inverted H&S, and also difference between alternate ii bottom at 1992 and alternate iii top at 2873 times Fibonacci number ,of first order equals strong movement UP. From the rabbit hole.

    • I’ve been wondering about that myself. It has the look of a running flat since the 2754 top. This has me wondering about A up to 2754,B running flat,and C up for the first wave of a huge diagonal.

  8. tommyboys says:

    RUT doesn’t wanna drop. Rotation to little guys – bullish action for now…

  9. Lee X says:

    I think the advise here is fairly priced at free 😉

    Cmon guys get in there and trade !

      • Lee X says:

        Haha Thx Mr CL

        • scottycj1 says:

          Im in it short….I have longer term puts….
          There are always multiple levels of resistance.

          Every time it goes up to another level I double the purchase amount.
          If you worked on the floor…..you should be familiar with thus technique

      • phil1247 says:

        CL …….
        64.64 failed
        now 63.82 is last chance for larger extension long
        still dont want to rebuy UWT

        • kvilia says:

          Short CL since yesterday, still slightly negative through DWT. Think will join a waterfall.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Still think 72/74 for oil, so had bids in for UWT @ 29.60 (one of the numbers I am using on my scatterplot)…
            Short the indices, and long VXX, UVXY etc.

            • fionamargaret says:

              Sold everything mentioned EXCEPT for oil..
              Made 7k so far today….and shall maybe buy back in…be careful…had to wait a while to sell the Vixes….

              • fionamargaret says:

                I did not sell because I suddenly became bullish…I am still sick…but gives me lots of time to watch oil…I would like to see it try for 72/74…UWT…

  10. gary61b says:

    spx gap fill and ES 2712-14

  11. thecustomer14 says:

    VIX to 30+ by the end of next week… VIX monthly chart going back 30 years tells the story of what happens following a month when the VIX exceeds 40 for the first time in a couple of years as it did last month.

  12. mjtplayer says:

    DB, the long-time canary in the coal mine. Breaking down, measured move targets a test of the 2016 lows. The European bank stocks are a disaster, lead by DB


  13. CampFreddie says:

    Gold looking very bullish here imo, should be good up to spot – 1530 over the next few weeks, worth a look imho.

  14. stan911 says:

    Looking for bounce here to 2702 spx then down to 2666 to finish it off

  15. pooch77 says:

    The spiral calendar has March 22nd as the low,being based on astro not to confident as i has seen astro fail to many times.Better off trading 2hour and daily charts.Astro works when it coincides with charts…go figure

  16. aahmichael says:

    An excellent article for those of you who aren’t a daytrader/scalper.

  17. Holly Silver says:

    Must be just another coincidence that the drop starts on the day trump signs the tariffs. I question why the market waited this long? Did they think Trump was bluffing? The big question is if the EU is included. I suspect, based on recent rumors, he does not intend to include them. There are always external events that can’t be ignored by the markets.

    • phil1247 says:

      the long broke yesterday

      • Holly Silver says:

        Chicken or egg? We would not be here had trump not declared protectionist measures on January 26th in Davos. Transcript was presented next day to public. Just another coincidence? 2870 in 1/26, 2 weeks later 2580.

        • phil1247 says:

          there is always some excuse
          why the market went up or down every day
          isnt there ?

          • Holly Silver says:

            Like the mortgage debacle? 9/11? Yup there is. The street is consumed with the tariffs. They must be getting it all wrong. Now in truth most news events are either very short term and market quickly shrugs it off or it can be a big event. trade war with china is NOT a small thing. It all depends on how China retaliates. They have no voter to please. They still own a large portion of our debt. they can easily but agriculture from South America. The implications are enormous.

            Are you kidding when you stated that the exact moment of announcement of trade wars was just a coincidence that the market stalled? I mean the exact day the Davos meeting transcript was released. Today the “EXACT” deadline for signing tariffs into law.

            • phil1247 says:

              mortgage debacle ?
              BOA lost half its value before anyone mentioned any mortgage problems
              news ? ………..fugggedddabouddddit !

  18. fxaprendiz says:

    Ok that settles it. SPX has already broken Monday’s low and we haven’t even seen NY open yet. Free sail down in days ahead.
    My eyes are on 2588 (.786 fib of the 2530-2802 B wave) by Fri-Mon as a minimum target.
    Fiona’s level of 2465 starts to seem likely by early April…

  19. phil1247 says:

    ES target 2671
    where are the dancing bears ?

  20. phil1247 says:


    gary lewis

    how do you like that test of .618 support and rocket blast up?

  21. phil1247 says:

    humble newbie

    CL dropped a dollar right on cue

    now we see if the aggressive extension fails at 64.64 as shown on chart i sent you
    i am not interested in rebuy of UWT …. yet

    • Phil, many thanks for the update. Now Cl has failed 64.64, and the pattern of /HG in 10/2017 suggests it’ll drop to 4h BB then b wave up to a lower high. I plan to short the b high, or short the small bounce now. Your trade on oil?

      By the way ES follows the pattern of DAX well. Nice day!

      • phil1247 says:

        i am still out
        we are in a 15 min series down
        bearish below 64.86
        but still above the larger extension long

        not interested ….but good luck to you !

  22. vivelaamo says:

    That inverse head and shoulders is still on the cards. Could be a beauty…

  23. Holly:
    If you owe the bank $1 million, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $100 million, you own the bank.

  24. quickrick38 says:

    Silver gave us 5 waves up over the last two days. Took a little longer to get started than I was expecting but it finally started what should be a long term rally. Good luck all.

  25. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  26. Good evening all…to fiona. Fractal update. While I don’t put much into this fractal playinhg out,
    there is some interesting similarities both in terms of time and 2 Fibonacci retracements. For this fractal to play out there has to be significant downside activity this week.History may not reat itself but it often rhymes.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks Asa…what a magnificent beast…
      You can tell I am spoiled for your pics, as I was awaiting an update….just hoped he was still coiling…
      Very many thanks for taking the time….x

    • Big thanks Asa. Apple’s chart confirms the big down move this week as your charts suggest.

  27. Holly Silver says:

    Been obsessing over EU Tariffs. Tomorrow trump announces sanctions against China. Curious to see if the market ignores this since it was widely known for months.

    Can the market actually rally against the announcement?

    • Holly Silver says:

      How can we tell if China decides to send a message to Trump by dumping some of its huge debt. Will the dollar or bond market react immediately? I actually think China will play it slow but they could hit agriculture products immediately. Futures early on are up. Announcement made at 12:30 tomorrow. It seems short sighted for the street to discount a full blown trade war. But hey, i am not a financial international trade guru. Perhaps it’s all under control? Nah.

      • Lee X says:

        They’re more worried about our Sea Wolf submarines than tarriffs IMHO

      • Holly:
        If you owe the bank $1 million, the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $100 million, you own the bank.

      • zvyezda says:

        I have puts as well and he better deliver on the tariffs for the trigger!

        Don’t know the date of this campaign speech this is excerpted from but it is an OLD one. Enjoy!

      • Gary Lewis says:

        In the many decades I’ve been dabbling in the markets, I have found that market cycles and news cycles often coincide instead of one causing the other. One case that comes to mind is when I was writing market newsletters many years ago. I was calling for a cycle low to hit on Jan 16 and was calling for buys on that day (as I recall). Turned out that was the day the Bush (the elder) went to war in Iraq. It turned out to be a major market turning point, So many were challenging me on “how could you have predicted that we would be going to war on that day!” Of course, I couldn’t. But so often the market cycles and news cycles work together. There are bigger forces at work than we can imagine.

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      So A.I thinks,a drop to 23,500 then a major rally,is what I get out of that–IF the triangle pattern repeats.
      Anyways,gold hit its head on the upper bb.A little wobbly and dizzy.No real +divs to hang a rally hat on,but it IS post Fed rally time(based on past Fed hikes).Question is,was THAT it?Later all.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I think he was just being reflective…I think 2465, with possible 2340…
        I still like gold…
        GLD 153
        FB 137

      • Holly Silver says:

        Everyone sees the same thing but like last time we formed a triangle it broke on the upside. is it possible we find out tomorrow? Stay tuned! “Who knows what evil lurkers in the hearts of men? The shadow knows”

        • fionamargaret says:

          Oil had a similar triangle, which broke to the upside, and I really want oil to keep doing what it is doing, and the indices the opposite…I am not asking much….x

  28. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Raymond James….Charts of the Week

    Thanks and much love to Tony….and everyone xx

  29. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #DOW at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • Billy says:

      Quite feasible Scotty. DOW would need below 24217.76 (a of C) made on 3/2. Also has a gap at 24190.90 from 2/9. If it closed that gap the C wave retracement of the B wave would be 66%. Importantly it would also be feasible on the SPX. SPX would need below 2647.32 made on 3/2 (which would be b of B on that index). SPX also has a gap made on 2/9 at 2619.55. The C wave retracement of the B wave to close that gap on the SPX would be 68%. These are all very reasonable possibilities. The primary consideration is, if a triangle pans out as suggested, will the market head for those gaps pronto or will the C wave within the triangle throw some curve balls before it makes its final drop. The C wave on the DOW has been in progress for 16 or 17 days, however the C wave on the SPX has only been in progress for 6 or 7 days after the B wave took 21 or 22 days. Thus possibly more time is needed plus you generally get one wave within the triangle that is quite complex. In any case I now have those gaps (2619.55 & 24190.90) duly noted as potential significant targets.

    • Bouraq:
      Do you mean breaking the green channelonthe upside or downside?

  30. CampFreddie says:

    Still seeing very good bullish setups right across the board including Usa, Uk, India, Japan and Europe and still expect to see significant global upside action from current levels. Aimho.

  31. scottycj1 says:

    Another Bearish Engulfing Candle —-Outside day in the SPX and Q’s

  32. aahmichael says:

    IMO, the trend remains down from 2802. We did a symmetrical abc from 2802 to 2694, and now another symmerical abc back up from 2694 to 2739. Today simply rallied back to the 20dma, where it was rejected. It was also a backtest of the previously broken DTL in SPX, and the previously broken UTL in the DOW.

  33. Bill Manscoe says:

    Take the money and run.

  34. Holly Silver says:

    Everything about this recent market behavior screams for a sharp drop. FOMC a big nothing. Went as expected a unanimous vote. Tomorrow should be the no excuse day for market direction. I held off buying more Puts and might be sorry. I think opening is decidedly down tomorrow. The intra-day did hit 2740 but couldn’t hold for an hour.

    Now only news going forward is Trade Wars and Mueller. This chart is extremely non-committal BUT we needed to see a move off the critical zones. In my mind 2712 is it. The morning move belter be sharply higher or this sucker will fall hard IMHO.

    • Holly, from what I have read the announcement will come after the market closes tomorrow. It’s now expected that Trump could slap tariffs on 100 or more products for intellectual property violations which is displacing steel and aluminum dumping as the nexus of trade discussions. Tusk from the EU has also toned down his rhetoric. Obviously, the markets will react differently if Trump simply imposes the tariffs or says if China does not do this and this tariffs will be imposed, finessing the EU and NAFTA or the moment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/u-s-planning-action-against-china-over-ip-in-very-near-future . Best of luck.

      • Holly Silver says:

        Yes I read that also. Seems I heard the EU situation might get resolved BUT not a word from trump himself. Strange how he had them on the ropes if he never intended to issue tariffs. I will listen to developments over next 2 days.

        • Holly Silver says:

          From the TELEGRAPH newspaper.

          After a succession of high-level EU trips to Washington, there remain hopes that Mr Trump can be persuaded to grant the EU an exemption to the tariffs, sources said, while warning of a potentially “explosive” 48 hours.

          I believe it will be explosive if they are not granted exemption.

  35. gary61b says:

    ES, 2697.25 to 2743.5 is A, B wave(2712.5 so far) if it stays above 2709 then C up to 2754 start looking for a short….

    • stan911 says:

      Shit Gary now you’ve thrown me out was looking for either a ABC down from 2740 to 2694 or 5 waves down to 2656. If Chris Carolan chart is correct he has 22nd as a low I think if what your saying should take longer to play out. Ah well find out tomorrow

    • Perfect chart, right there for everyone to see. If you miss it or long, it’s your own fault

    • dad1 says:

      How did you derive the projection. It is amazing how it tracks and the only observation is that some of the projected highs and lows on certain days are not reached. Today is a good example where the high was projected a but higher.

      • 123 abc says:

        Its just a speculative drawing to project the general direction, not to be taken literally! Any tracking is purely incidental!

        • Holly Silver says:

          Stop the modesty and reveal your source. You are a time traveler and without breaking your golden code of silence you place these “projections” as a way of tipping us off to the future. When do you go “back to the future”?

  36. stan911 says:

    Scotty or anyone who can answer, this move down are we looking for a ABC or 5 waver
    ABC=2694 which is a double bottom
    5waver =2656 and pivot

    • scottycj1 says:

      Looks like 5 down to me….1 last leg down here…..should be done by Friday….Then up for 3 to 4 days

      • stan911 says:

        Then we should head to 2656. According to the chart Phil put up of Chris Carolan he has tomorrow as a bottom, not saying it’s gospel those cycle chart a normally +/-1 day. Right now a ABC=2694 and 5 wave 2656

  37. phil1247 says:

    humble newbie

    if you took the CL long i showed
    .we are now within 5 cents of target at 65.58 and another at 65.68
    i dont want to hold UWT overnite so

    steve miller band it is

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Fly like an eagle? Keep on rocking? Which SM tune are we talking here Phil?

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      Take the money and run.

    • Hi phil, it’s so kind of you to be so helpful. I also think oil has topped for B wave now and is in wave a down. It has about the same pattern as copper. I plan to short the b wave high ~ 65.74 tomorrow. Your suggestion would be appreciated.

      What’s your opinion on USD now?

      I really hope you can trade my accounts if possible. I’ve lost too much money trading on my own so far. And I really need the money back.

      Thanks also to fio for answering my question yesterday.

      • phil1247 says:

        newbie … of course i cannot trade your account
        i would like to clarify something
        cl is in extension longs.
        .. i sold UWT near the close as .it was near a profit target
        that means take profits…. it does not mean go short there
        cl will probably drop a dollar from here
        but as long as it is above 64.64
        expect the 66.14 target to be hit
        best of luck

        dollar is going nowhere …..i am not interested

  38. DH method….as long as /VX stays above 16.85 /ES, /YM and /NQ counter trend trades are over and the index’s will retest today’s lows. This call is invalidated should /VX trade below 16.85

    • Thailand Hawaii says:

      Traded below 16.85

      • Yep, DH had 2 analyses close to each other. The bullish one was a 15 minutes LONG and the lower one was the daily. The daily/lower /VX analysis was tested and defended. On that defense, that’s when the counter trend trade topped and all three index’s ended the day red …just like the /VX suggested. It’s all in the anchors.

  39. Lee X says:

    And always remember, its the internet and you have as many or more tools at your own disposal then annonymous russian bots sent to confuse you 🙂
    Don’t be lazy , work a little and you’ll own the fruits of your labor .

  40. 2709.94 is todays low. rally will get started now.

  41. gary61b says:

    ES 2709 will be the line in the sand to cross for more down.

  42. scottycj1 says:

    Next level before 66.02 high on crude is 65.42

    • stan911 says:

      Scotty or anyone who can answer, this move down are we looking for a ABC or 5 waver
      ABC=2694 which is a double bottom
      5waver =2656 and pivot

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