Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then choppy, DOW +116

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 8-points above yesterday’s SPX 2713 close. The market then moved up to SPX 2724, dropped to unchanged at 2713, then back to 2724 by 10:30. By noon the SPX had made a lower low at 2711. After a rally to SPX 2720 by 12:30, it hit 2710 by 3pm. A range bound day. A bounce ended the day at SPX 2717.

For the day SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude gained $1.35, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: the FOMC meeting concludes with an expected rate increase.

The market gapped down at the open on Monday, dropped through support at SPX 2732, and continued to fall until it hit 2695 in the afternoon. While we thought this was a possibility, we were not really expecting it to happen. But now that it has. It appears the SPX/DOW are still working their way through their Intermediate wave iv correction. Even thought the NDX/NAZ have already made new highs. We adjusted the short term labeling on the charts to reflects this view. Think it looks self-explanatory. Since Intermediate wave ii was an irregular ZZ. Intermediate iv could have been a simple ZZ, which we thought it had done at the SPX 2533 low, or a flat, or a triangle, or something even more complex. Short  term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day rising to just past neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend now looks more corrective than impulsive

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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415 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Was too soon to go long but the time will come any day now. 200 sma wil not get breached for longer than a day if at all. IMO of course. Well done to bears again. Technicals and trendline breaks actually worked to the downside again. Actually refreshing to see the market is finally back to normal. For now….

    Good luck all.


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