Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2787. After rallying to SPX 2802 by Tuesday morning the market headed lower into Thursday. Then after a SPX 2741 Thursday low the market hit 2762 on Friday. But closed at SPX 2752 for the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.05%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the downtick: retail sales, Philly FED, NAHB, housing starts, building permits, plus the federal budget deficit expanded. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, business inventories, export/import prices, the NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s highlights are the FOMC meeting, durable goods, and existing/new home sales. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

After a January all-time high of SPX 2873, ending a strong 10-month uptrend. A drop of nearly 12% in two weeks followed. The perma-bears were back out in force. The crash they keep calling for has already occurred: 2007-2009. Those types of events only occur once in a lifetime. There will be bear markets in the future. But nothing like that for a very long time.

The long-term count remains unchanged. A Major wave 1 bull market has been underway since early-2016. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate iii then began to subdivide. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Then Minor wave 5 and Int. wave iii completed in January 2018 at SPX 2873. After that Int. wave iv appears to have completed in February at SPX 2533. Intermediate wave v should currently be underway.

MEDIUM TERM: probable uptrend

After making a low at SPX 2533 in February, the market has rallied to 2802 this week. The advance, however, has been quite choppy. And nothing like the NDX/NAZ, which have already confirmed an uptrend and made new all-time highs. The DOW has been the weaker of the two, (SPX/DOW), and appears to have formed a potential Intermediate wave iv triangle.

Despite the choppiness in the SPX its pattern from the February low still looks somewhat impulsive, as noted on the hourly chart. However it is quickly approaching make or break time. For an impulsive uptrend to continue the SPX needs to rally quite soon. Medium term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots.

SHORT TERM

We continue to label the SPX with Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 2754 and 2647 respectively. Then a subdividing Minor 3: Minute i 2732, Minute ii 2702, Minute iii 2802, Minute iv 2741. Notice to keep this count alive the SPX cannot drop below 2732.

Lots of starts and stops since the February low. This week, for example, the SPX was up over 10 points in the morning of every day this week. Then every day sold off into the afternoon to close negative. Except on Friday when it was up 5-points. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral, after a positive divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed and gained 0.3%.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 0.2%.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 1.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be uptrending and gained 0.3% on the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Gold remains in a downtrend and lost 0.9%.

The USD is still in a downtrend and lost 0.3%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: existing home sales, and the FOMC statement. Thursday: jobless claims and leading indicators. Friday: durable good s and new home sales.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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461 Responses to Weekend update

  1. rd3777 says:

    Watch out below….the analog is on.

  2. fotis2 says:

    Bearflag hit now Bullflag just a series of patterns S&P futes 4hour
    https://invst.ly/6z9vc

  3. scottycj1 says:

    Rally up into FOMC—-then a nice 2 1/2 day sharp drop

  4. jobjas says:

    I don’t day trade nor am I trying to post a trade .Just to show how using the Ew methodology I mentioned yesterday
    one can enter a short at 2723.Trading a Pico wave 5 for a 40 point profit

  5. Simon s says:

    Question of the day.. where does the market close?

    • phil1247 says:

      2728.5

      • gary61b says:

        I am going with spx 2718

        • Holly Silver says:

          2716.88 WOW that was easy. Now the hard part, tomorrow? I still see a drop to 2630. This is not acting like a normal continuation to uptrend. Absolutely no news on EU trade wars. Watch for a really volatile Friday. IF EU announced reciprocal tariffs Trump should TWEET immediately his upping the ante. This should be fun. Today we were in the eye of the storm.

          My strong assumption: If Friday starts trade war with EU the maker will flip out! I am contemplating adding more PUTS tomorrow. There is NO WAY this current trend can show any upside on Friday if Trump stays pat on his tariffs. Can anyone imagine a market rallying against an EU trade war? Play the odds!

    • i will go with 2717.13 with a upward trend in the AM tomorrow to 2740

      • gary61b says:

        nice, make a buck thats close.

      • phil1247 says:

        good pick
        this time the 2 fibs were not the same number
        i picked the wrong one
        the other had 2721 es so i would have said 2718
        still not good enough …..
        …….kudos tryingtomakeabuck!

  6. Jack kendo says:

    NDX, short term, is having the same bifurcation as during Y2K
    also the overall “major” topping structure is the same as the rising into Y2K.
    NDX down 27% in 8 days, down 35% within one month, down 83% eventually.
    https://gyazo.com/a1406332bd2a1baaef34569d3cef4963

    main thing is:
    during Y2K top, only NDX/NAZ had the “major” topping structure, but not SPX or DJI
    this time, NDX/NAZ, SPX, DJI all have the “major” topping structure.
    so, all of them down 80% in a few years are reasonable.

    cheers!

    • scottycj1 says:

      Thats because we will soon be going into the 5th and final wave up and this is when the small caps do best.

      • Jack kendo says:

        if you are still relying on elliott wave as the market structure, confusion, bifurcation will always be with you.
        is Robert Prechter not good at elliott wave? he is very good at elliott wave, but he has becoming a joke of analyzing the market with elliott wave, has been consistantly wrong for 8 years.
        i mentioned, Ralph Nelson Elliott developed elliott wave, but it’s an incomplete theory, and certainly is not the structure of the market.

        cheers!

        • Prechter has been wrong for many more than eight years. He was accidentally correct once – accidentally because he has been looking for the second coming ever since October 1987. The Big Bear that he has been predicting for 31 years has come and gone. I’d take Tony’s analysis any day, any month, any year over any other Elliottician I have come across. Others may be sporadically right, but Tony has, over the long term, been spectacularly accurate. Always correct? No, of course not. But if you are a longer term trader you will make far more than you lose by trading Tony’s roadmap.

          • tommyboys says:

            I agree Prechter was right during the tech wreck but that “may” have just been luck due to his permabear position for 15 years prior. Must admit though his “Concur the Crash” (’02)saved me tons! After that the Financial Crisis was just luck on his part imho – “stopped clock”… Tony has remained flexible and unbiased – not trying to sell newsletters through fear.

          • Jack kendo says:

            no doubt, Tony certainly is much better and correct on the market than Prechter.
            Tony is well and much respected.
            but Prechter is more influential because most people learn elliott wave from his book, and he makes more because of the book. his trading and investment certainly is a trash.

            well, oew switched from very bullish 3 of 3 up to very bearish C wave down in just one day.
            why is that much directional change with 180 degree?
            if i hold spy calls on Monday morning, what should i do after seeing such a drastic change before the market close. if i switched calls to puts before the market close on Monday, then today’s market up motion bites on me again on the other side.
            then what should do on my position going forward with the new count change?

            what i brought up is, elliott wave is not the market structure, and has been verified.
            for example, from 03/13 down, DJI has overlapping waves, but SPX and NDX have no overlapping. this is not allowed in elliott wave.
            but in the actual market structure, it’s allowed. for example, Nov 2016, DJI & SPX overlapped, but NDX not overlapping.

            cheers!

            • aahmichael says:

              Did someone tell you that the chart pattern of every index had to be a mirror image of every other index? If that were true, then there would only be one index. By the way, overlapping waves are allowed in corrective waves, but are not required.

  7. scottycj1 says:

    Cum NYAD is now dropping below 50 dma

  8. Gary Lewis says:

    adding some more TLT here near 119. Perhaps early, perhaps not.

  9. Rejoice, investing community. Newbie shall be our salvation, if only we trust him to be our savior.

  10. phil1247 says:

    lunker

    if 15 min dow buy is working
    sharp decline should stop dead at 24650

    lets see

  11. Holly Silver says:

    If we can’t hold gains today watch out! Very weak rebound and Q’s leading on downside. If we do end down by 20 or more SPX points a big drop for rest of week.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Did Trump let one rip?

      • Holly Silver says:

        Hired his 10th lawyer for the fake investigation. This one believes in conspiracies and the whole DOJ and FBI is out to get trump. he is on record saying in 1997 Wall Street Journal op-ed that it would be good for the country if a president were not only investigated but actually indicted while in office. That’s the nut cases we now have. Impossible to coordinate strategy in the WH with 10 opposing views. but what the hey, that’s what trump loves, in-fighting. Every day brings news that would have been shocking before Trump era. now its business as usual.

        • The Deep state and the whole folthy neocon/Democrat establishment, including most of the media, are out to get him. They pretend it’s just Trump’s character and personality they dislike. But if we had a president with a totally different demeanor who was trying to accomplish what Trump is, they would concoct things about him to hate.sich is the vile lunacy of the Trump-hating reactionaries.

        • Gary Lewis says:

          seems that he’s following the Clinton playbook to a T. “left” wing conspiracy out to get him, attack the credibility of the special counsel. Don’t kid yourself, Trump and the Clintons are best buds. This is all for show. Are you entertained? Apparently.

        • tommyboys says:

          Look here is the rea issue. There are HUGE issues on BOTH sides of the isle going back almost a century. Many folks on BOTH side do not like Trump personally. They don’t like his hubris, his wealth, etc… The reason he is soooo disliked in the media is that he is NOT a politician – he’s a private sector business person – who is out independently basically trying to right the ship of corruption – i.e. swamp. This 8 minute clip covers it beautifully. Manafort certainly sold out the US for personal gain but the Podesta’s prolly take the cake. These two however are just the TIP of the iceberg of how much the US has been sold out by just about EVERY politician offered money for the privilege and even worse the foreign lobbyists. The fact that ANY foreign country is PERMITTED to have a lobbyist to the US Congress is a ridiculous and needs to stop pronto! These are the forces working to bring down the US and are the basis for almost every issue that divides us today – divide and concur. We need hundreds more “regular private sector citizens” running for office while eliminating the swampy politicians. This professional politician garbage needs to go rapidly. Watch and get angry…

          http://video.foxnews.com/v/5753869216001/?#sp=show-clips

    • aahmichael says:

      FB is down another 5% today. ORCL is down 10% today.
      Stuff is happening to tech.

  12. hugh jazole says:

    Is oil still in a downtrend?

  13. rd3777 says:

    Dead cat bounce….

  14. rabbittrader1 says:

    From the rabbit hole: We started off a new moon on March 17th and on March 31 we will have a Full Moon ,(also it will be a relatively rare Blue Moon ie. two full moons in the same month.) The next Blue Moon (Full Moon), will not occur until October 2020. From this we rabbit people perceive that the end of wave C will likely occur at around 2670 (a truncated C wave) , this week. (Go figure ?) Then it is up-up and away ! Rabbit.

    • Jimbo says:

      Even rarer is the fact that we had a blue moon in Jan 2018 too, 2nd and 31st and the same this month.! 2 blue moons in the same year is quite rare indeed

Comments are closed.