Thursday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then another pullback, DOW +116

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower, along with the Philly FED. The NY FED and export/import prices were reported higher. The market opened at SPX 2756, then pulled back to 2747 in the opening minutes. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower. The market rallied to SPX 2763 by around 11:30, then headed lower again. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2741, then rebounded to close at 2747.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude added 25 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts and building permits at 8:30, industrial production at 9:15, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

For the fourth time this week the SPX rallied over 10 points early, only to get sold off for the rest of the day. After hitting a high at SPX 2802 Tuesday morning, the market has dropped 61-points to 2741 in just three days. Volatility continues. Maybe this all changes tomorrow. Option expiration usually displays a big move on either Thursday or Friday. Nothing big today, maybe tomorrow. The short term count is now under pressure. While Minor waves 1 and 2 (2754 and 2647) still look fine. Minute waves i-ii-iii (2732-2702-2802-2741) are currently nearing a potential overlap at SPX 2732. We are not expecting this to occur. But if it does, it could change the short term count. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence. Best to your Opex trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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227 Responses to Thursday update

  1. aahmichael says:

    …but the tax cuts!

    • purplember says:

      Ha media bias again. HOG stock is down 35% in last year. Harley is slashing jobs because demographics have change. baby boomers buying less bikes = declining sales. this has been ongoing for MANY quarters

  2. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  3. stormchaser80llc says:

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  4. Holly Silver says:

    Tillerson condemned Russia over UK attack. Fired immediately after. WH lied saying he knew before hand of his firing. The press spokesperson for Tillerson confirmed he got informed of firing the day Trump tweeted it. Tillerson’s spokesperson also got fired for putting out statement. McMaster condemned Russia on Thursday. he got hired immediately after. This is a big deal.

    It proves beyond a doubt that trump will never condemn Russia for anything and only goes along when forced to. WHY? Russia killed people on UK soil using nerve agent. If it happened here what would the public say about trumps refusal to condemn Putin? Outrageous.

    But not to worry. Trump will never take any action against Putin. They are our comrades.

    the state of mind of trump is only going to get worse every single day moving forward. he will feel cornered and attack like he is with tariffs. This coincides with a market that looks about to roll over.
    I kid you not. I look exclusively at the WH for guidance. Watch trade wars and more mass firings.

      • fenster6 says:

        No your president is the idiot. Remember Tillerson , his own sec of state, actually called him a F%*cking Moron.

        • Lee X says:

          You’re on the list

        • purplember says:

          yet you fools will never see how Hillary & Obama used the FBI and DOJ to make up and investigate trump. this is 20x worse than watergate. even Democrat schiff said they have no evidence after 18 months. media and dems are ONE with ONE agenda.

          how is our media any different than Russia ? it’s propaganda but you guys can’t even see it because it fits your agenda.

      • aahmichael says:

        It helps greatly that before you attack a person’s intelligence, you first know the difference between “your” and “you’re.”

    • jobjas says:

      This snowflake has a free platform here in OEW
      At least the other expelled troll had some entertainment value !

    • vivelaamo says:

      Why don’t people actually judge Trump and his administration on what he is doing for the country ?

      • People don’t use their brain. There are so many holes in the mainstream laden story of Russia knowingly poisoning the double-agent.

        1. The daughter lives in Russia and was visiting his father in Russia.
        2. Why would Russia be so stupid to cause such a stir before worldcup
        3. All states are capable of manufacturing that nerve agent and why Russia is culpable not being an inside job of MI6/CIA?
        4. All the new hires of Trump are anti-China and what good does it do to cause further stir between US and Russia.

        It just doesn’t pass the smell test.

        People still don’t understand that the US is controlled de-facto by two factions – Military/CIA faction and the Deep state/Banksters/Big Tech. The latter had the upper hand the last 2 decades, thus the exporting of the manufacturing bases to China for its benefit. Seems like the CIA/Military is now launching the come-back. There are so many angles to explore what’s behind the scenes than what the mainstream would have you brainwashed.

        • tommyboys says:

          Yes and there are a couple of the mentally ill – highly suseptable to media brainwashing – right here on this thread. They watch FNN then regurgitate the agenda to bring down the USA. Thry ignore the accomplishments and policies because they’ve been filled with propaganda to “not like” the person. Well – McCabe gets his !!! Go TRUMP – DRAIN THAT SWAMP!!

        • mcgcapital says:

          As I understand it, there are only 3 countries who have labs with copies of the specific nerve agent used, so it’s not freely available. And they are U.K., US and Russia. I can’t see either the U.K. or US doing something like this as it put ordinary civilians at risk, so by default it has to have been sourced from Russia, whether that’s the Russian state or organised crime. Hence the U.K. government response asking for explanation which the kremlin ignored. But as usual Holly/Gary’s hate of Trump is clouding her judgement as he backed the UK findings the other day along with France and Germany, so he isn’t siding with Russia

          • tommyboys says:

            Dunno how she sleeps at night with all this misplaced emotion throughout her mind. God only knows how it must affect her trading. Be VERY careful who’s advise you take on the web… except Lee – you can listen to him – a solid Midwest fella 😉

      • aahmichael says:

        Vive, it’s not a case of what Trump is doing for the country, rather, it’s a case of what he is not doing for the country. The President’s most important responsibilities are to protect our US national security and to defend the US Constitution. Yesterday, no less than the highly esteemed Barry McCaffrey came out and said that Trump has failed at both. When all is said and done, Trump is going to go down in history as a traitor and a madman.

        • tommyboys says:

          UTTER NONSENSE Mikey. Trump’s pushing for more US defense than ANY president in decades. Funding the military, giving Generals more automomy, funding ICE and freeing them to do their jobs, pushing for a wall and deporting illegal criminals.Trump putting sanctions on Russia where Obummer never did even while Putin waa meddling for years in our elections etc… Yeah Hilary woukda been SO much better against Putin while selling them 25% of our Uranium for her personal gain while handing our arch enemy a new paradigm on nuclear weapons. Yeah Trump REALLY missing the mark. SANITY NOW!! Drain the swamp!

          Keep up the insane leftist posts and this thread will become a political one only.

        • purplember says:

          aahmichael, are you serious? trump is trying to protect our border. trump is building up our military and foreign policy is much better. He’s fighting for americans. Obama had the worst foreign policy in 40 years and you bash trump. WOW wake up and get the facts.

          Liberals are all about emotions and don’t want to discuss facts

          • aahmichael says:

            The issue isn’t about Obama, and the issue isn’t about fighting against black or brown people, or fighting against Muslims. The issues are the Russian attacks against our country and the fact that Putin owns Trump.

            • jobjas says:

              “If you stare into the Abyss long enough the Abyss stares back at you.”
              — Friedrich Nietzsche

            • purplember says:

              aahmichael, please answer the question earlier. Hillary selling Uranium to Russia so clinton can put money in there pockets. how would that be good for our country? FBI / CIA are nervous because they are attacking Trump. my gosh, McCabe and his team CHANGED the answers of people they question for Hillary case. they should be IN JAIL !!!

    • kjb0 says:

      Holly…your eyes are wide shut. You are entitled to make up your own opinion but you are not entitled to make up your own facts.

    • lunker1 says:

      What part about no political posts allowed do you not understand?

      • vivelaamo says:

        I though rules such as no political posts or 3 posts only applied during market hours only?

        I could be wrong.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Problem is there’s no middle ground is there.. some of the stuff that gets posted isn’t factual and that’s from both sides. Holly/fen are never going to become more right wing and tommy/purp/etc aren’t going to become more left wing so it’s a pointless debate. At the end of the day, Trump won the election under the electoral college rules and is implementing his policies. If the country doesn’t like it, they get another chance to vote in 2.5 years.. it’s called democracy

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Thanks. Glad I can come to Tony’s blog for your expert political analysis. Maybe the Daily Kos might be a better spot for you?

  5. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks and love to Tony……and everyone xx

  6. Holly Silver says:

    McCabe fired 2 days before retirement by Sessions the same man that lied repeatedly under oath to congress. When caught with direct testimony from someone else in the same room he suddenly recalls the discussion but remembers it differently. That’s the man that fired McCabe? I guess treason is considered a lesser offense. Lets see what Mueller does about Sessions. We already know that Mueller has hard evidence of the Russian Trump tower deal during his campaign using a sanctioned Russian bank. The trump implosion from 2 weeks ago is exactly when Mueller subpoenaed Trump organization documents.

    Combine that with Larry Kudlow’s remarks 5 days ago that trump will exempt EU from tariffs. He took over as economic advisor 2 days ago back peddling his statement. EU sent out list of their own. There is no indication trump will back down. WAR starts on the 23rd.

    With the WH in a complete mess and Trump imploding along with EU tariffs on the 23rd the stock market will need a herculean boost of some sort. If the “great economic” news of late didn’t do it i wonder what will. Am i missing something? Can the market go UP from here next week?

    Will the market ignore start of trade war on the 23rd?

    • zvyezda says:

      I go along with Tony’s count and think we are rapidly approaching the end of this petering out bull market. The tariffs might be the outward visible signal for its start, but it goes much deeper and is much more fundamental. If Trump has any balls, it will be fought to the end – but that remains to be seen.

    • lunker1 says:

      what part about no political posts allowed do you not understand?

      • micky says:

        Clearly, this Holly entity does not care about this blog, which BTW is about EW, OEW, and mostly technical analysis. Gee guys, we all have access to the news, why post your political interpretation of it?
        The big money already has info not yet published ANYWHERE, so why worry? Look at the charts and post your thoughts about it. Some have not realized yet that the charts reflect what the overall money(sentiment) think of matters,at any given point in time
        My thoughts atm is that there are no clear path or conclusion yet of commitment in any major direction, At this stage it is not a given that Int W 4 is over, More action is needed to prove it. .

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