Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -172

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the CPI was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2796, hit 2802 in the opening moments, then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2783  yesterday. By noon the SPX had dropped 32-points to 2770. Then after a rally to around unchanged at SPX 2783, the market headed lower again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2759, then bounced to end the day at 2765.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude lost 65 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Tomorrow: retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, then business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, reached SPX 2800 for the first time since early February, then sold off for the rest of the day. It looks like the market could have completed Minute iii this morning at SPX 2802, from 2702, and is now pulling back in a Minute iv. Already a steep 40+ point decline in just one day. See SPX hourly chart using the link below. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at today’s highs and ended oversold. Best to your trading this volatile market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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430 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. alexh110 says:

    Covered some of my shorts; trying a cautious long here on slight positive divergence (1 minute chart).

    • alexh110 says:

      I notice 2747 sits on a 76% Fib retrace of the rally from 2730 to 2801 seen from the perspective of cash market plus futures data. Whilst yesterday’s low of 2757 sat on the 62% retrace.

  2. headline from zerohedge.com…
    Stocks Slide, Breakevens Tumble After White House Confirms $100BN China Deficit Target

    There was an update I just read that Trump may announce this week a target to reduce the China’s trade deficit by 100 Billion dollars. Trump is zeroing in on China ignoring our intellectual capital. This is a update on my post last night and one of the reason why I sold all equities and in 100% cash earlier this morning.

    As I type this post the /VX just made a new higher high and /ES tested to the tick, it’s 61.8% LONG at 2762.25, will it defend today, is the question?

    • Holly Silver says:

      Announced trade war against EU caused a 1 percent pre-market swoon. It quickly recovered. Why would announcing targets for China be more immediate than a 3/23 deadline? Attacking our political and economic trading partner is much worse than the same rhetoric about china. Actions speak talk is cheap. EU is in crosshairs immediately.

      Like declaring Mexico is paying for the wall. US has been using China as a scapegoat for decades now yet we obviously benefit enormously with much lower costs to consumer. We do have a 4 percent unemployment and yet Trump is worried over jobs? That’s like giving away 2 trillion after an 8 year recovery, record earnings, and the largest disparity between the rich and poor ever. No one can make a valid argument. the timing is so preposterous as to expose the real reason for this Protectionist talk.

      • tommyboys says:

        Go TRUMP! Best prez of our lifetimes!!

      • I am the messenger, not the message! However, I think what may have spooked the markets today, was a report that Trump may announce this week, underscore announce this week, a target to reduce the China trade deficit by 100 billion dollar. The Steel/Aluminum tariff was around 27 billion dollars(?) world wide. 100 billion dollars against China alone, may be a different story, that the markets are beginning to price in today?

        • tommyboys says:

          Nah. What spooked market was the strong PPI – misplaced fear of higher rates – again.
          GO Trump – the non-politician!

          • Atlanta FED…1.9% GDP for Q12018 (FYI, the Atlanta Fed, is amazingly accurate).
            Could be a combination of a number of negative data points hitting the market all at once …that the markets haven’t had the time to price in.

        • Holly Silver says:

          Absolutely not! the trade war was an all out assault on the EU. Who thinks Trump was going to accept the EU retaliate in the same fashion using similar tariffs? I can guarantee you if trump implements on 3/23 EU will respond immediately and trump will then impose Car restrictions. there goes the small tariff. Trump already TWEETED his intent. The street knows this. I can only assume that the street sees trump reverse course when challenged. They must be counting on this. I am pretty sure he will stick to his pledge as the WH is falling apart around him. A desperate unhinged president has nothing to lose. I am counting on my knowledge of the man to predict future events.

          • lunker1 says:

            absolutely not! you’re all just guessing about the politics it doesn’t matter. the market cares about numbers not words

            • phil1247 says:

              dont waste your time
              they will never believe that news doesnt matter
              nothing can change the trend

              • phil1247 says:


                bonds in extension longs
                blue horseshoe says……………..
                hold long till extension fails

          • travis01 says:

            Every day I sooo want to respond to your inherent lack of any understanding or comprehension of the ridiculous rhetoric that you spew…but I don’t want to muddy the board. You just have no idea of what you try to string together concerning geo economics or trade or manufacturing or employment ramifications or middle class. I really try to see your view them BLAM you go off tangent due to your tin hat conspiracies and hatred for 45. 🤦‍♂️

        • fionamargaret says:

          2465 and maybe 2340 were predetermined when 2609 was hit..all sequential series..

    • phil1247 says:

      remember 2 days ago …..
      . spx 2747 is magnet ?
      see … i had todays newspaper 2 days ago 😉

    • travis01 says:

      I know many don’t like it but him working on trade imbalances is a very good and much needed thing. But there has been too much “politics” involved before and favors. This is something I know about. US manufacturing needs Corp tax cuts and trade balances to be competitive but at same time ppl complain of losing their jobs they also complain of these issues. When a textile town loses the company everyone goes hungry and there were no skill training initiatives preparing the next gen. China and India forming a middle class based on new wealth from mfg and real estate, while we lose middle class. Mex will always be the low cost country with corruption and poverty, drugs, cartels etc. It all ties together but no one ever wanted to be the “bad guy” before. And China steals our IP at will and we have no recourse to stop them. I think we pay 25% on autos into China and they pay 2% into US.

      • Did China also steal the High-Speed Train IP from the US then?

        • travis01 says:

          I don’t know Roland I never looked into it. But they openly take our electronics tech, autos, consumer goods, plastics, packaging and any other item that is mass producible. Companies spend profits developing tech that is only protected here. Much of what you buy is knocked off in China and it’s not just faux Rolexes. All of your plastics additives for everything from drink cups to auto fascia, consumer electronics, motors, etc are patented but stolen. I deal with this for a living. But that wasn’t the point, it’s an imbalance in trade and fees between the countries that help limit manufacturing (ie middle class growth) here along with Corp taxes.

    • fionamargaret says:

      When we reach 2465 Asa, I am going to quote DH Lawrence, just as a change…pretty sensual stuff…

  3. im looking for 2755 the .50 retrace if that fails 2740 the .618 retrace if that fails run

    good luck all

  4. blackjak100 says:

    Hard to see this as anything but a correction in an ongoing uptrend from 2534. Yesterday’s move was on low volume and NYAD only -500ish. Today, NYAD -200ish so far. VIX not spiking so look for backtest at worst of the down trend line around 2745ish where a nice buying opp awaits. If it it were a failed breakout, would have been back below trend line by now.

  5. aahmichael says:

    The DOW has now completely erased Friday’s NFP induced huge rally. It doesn’t take a genius to see why. A supposed 313k surge in employment in February generates a 0.1% dip in retail sales? No way. The retail sector reportedly hires 50k in the same month when sales dip 0.1%. No way. The payroll number was completely bogus. Expect a huge revision downward next month.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Actually the numbers suggests that personal savings went up and credit drawn down. If you look at the long history retail sales has lagged for a long time. Seems desire for material “things” have changed. Discretionary spending on travel, entertainment has skyrocketed as retail sales lagged badly. Please look at the decade long trend. Discretionary spending items have soured in that time frame.

      In fact i pointed out the exact same reason why the end of 2016 was a very positive occurrence. Consumers were also then paying down debt and increasing saving. it is actually the BEST long term scenario. I used that predominantly in determining a new big leg up was coming and not the crash everyone assumed. if this data is correct we have similar circumstance.

      • Holly Silver says:

        Discretionary spending items have soured in that time frame. Meant to say “soared” not soured. Long term implication is vey good. Anything can drive intermediate moves.

  6. fxaprendiz says:

    How probable is for SPX to reach 2745 today? Anyone?

  7. rd3777 says:

    Big distribution taking place, The mark down will commence soon.

  8. purplember says:

    Trump’s firing list is catching Clinton’s mysterious murder list

  9. fionamargaret says:

    2731, 2656, on its way to 2465, and maybe 2340.
    If we go down to re-visit …..VXX ….. in a sequence to 72

  10. torehund says:


    Pound in peril and confidence waning, latest the former spy murder (who benefited ?). Chart tells the truth abc up on price and macd. Daily macd hovering just at zero. Seems doomed.

  11. stockop says:

    Gonna be a massive up day from what i can see at this time in the morning. Be careful bears.

    • stockop says:

      Annnnnd now its neutral. Still think we see upside today. Dont think it will be as big as when i posted a few minutes ago…markets continuing to do their best to sideline/bankrupt as many people as possible. No clear signala at all

  12. Holly Silver says:

    We need a breakout today or tomorrow at the latest. I too am concerned we might be rolling over for a dramatic slide. If it does occur likely targets are 2640 and 2530 areas. Can’t seem to get out of the DMZ. Market has to choose.

  13. Lee X says:

    Hey Thanks Tony

  14. gary61b says:

    ES from this am looks to have completed 3 small waves up, abc or 123?. 2774 should hold 123 up but not abc.

  15. phil1247 says:

    gold silver gdx update

    nothing has changed
    as discussed intermittently
    silver and gdx have been dead money for the last year
    gold …while not dead has become comatose
    the fascination with dead money continues to amaze

  16. Thanks, Tony

  17. Good morning traders. As a follow up to last nights overnight analysis, /ES is at a crossroads. /ES is bearish on the micro or 15-minute trend and bullish on the daily trend. The 61.8% LONG at 2761.53 was tested and defended 3 times in the overnight session. /ES will be testing a 50% and perhaps a 61.8% SHORT soon. /ES needs to break 2790 to invalidate the bearish trend. Chart below is DH, my analysis.

    Bottom line:…/ES 2790 bearish below and bullish above.

    • phil1247 says:

      rally can continue while 2776 ESM8 holds
      2784.75 target which is the short entry exactly

      • …and that is what concerns me. If the long (/ES 2761) fails, I may exit my longs and sit or the sidelines as I don’t want to hold longs if /ES/SPX will retest the February lows.

        • chrisk44342 says:

          I think that’s a big leap Asa. If we get a gap and crap we can fill the other gap below us on SPX at 2743, right around the 38% retracement, which would fit the minute 4 theme. Pivotal moment short term at any rate

          • chrisk…..you could be 100% but take a look at /VX. It just traded off a 50% LONG at 16.28 with targets in the 17.64. Looks like /VX will retest it’s 50% LONG, lets see what happens on the dangerous second test. If /VX trades to that profit target I think 2743 get tested. I rather book profits and wait for the market to tell me it’s true intentions. Also, what happens if 2743 is tested and breaks? For now going to stay with my plan. As I type this post /ES front ran it’s 50% LONG and the ignored the GAP FILL …..for now.

            • phil1247 says:

              not wasting too much time with es here
              its a crapshoot

              bonds trading nicely
              blue horseshoe says
              take partial profits on spike up to target

              • phil1247 says:

                dow canary turning blue

                “”SPX traders”” ………. please ignore

              • phil1247 says:

                is this a scary emotional e wave selloff that ends the triangle ?
                if so it cant fall below 24217 cash

            • The moment of truth for this mornings trading../VX testing a 61.8% LONG, will it break? and at the same time /ES is testing a 50% SHORT will it defend?

  18. fotis2 says:

    Gold is in a DT targets 1250s GDX DB targets 92.6 S&P is in a DB targets back to highs

  19. learnedmylesson25 says:

    The gold market is about as exciting as watching tonight’s special election results in Pennsylvania.CBs trying to keep the dollar afloat,so gold can’t rally.But traders have DXY in a downtrend that has gotten hung up around 89-90–so PMs and GDX sit in a medicated state..Ira says gold MUST stay above 1309 or a very bearish scenario takes hold.I see 1290 as key.To the upside,he’s got 1360 as an important breakout level.GDX above 23 is bullish,then the moldie oldie 25.60 level of two years ago–which seems like 100 points away–is the ultimate bullish test.
    HYG broke below 85.80 and stocks paid.That level needs to be retaken imho for another stock rally to new highs.Good luck all.

  20. jobjas says:

    news/events may alter short term count but the long term trend continues(classic example election night ).Believe we are in the terminal end – with a potential contracting ending diagonal developing, ending around 2900 (with the possibility of some overthrow).Ending diagonals are typical for ending long term trends showing exhaustion.[ believe 5 waves from 2009]
    SPX projection

  21. 123 abc says:

    Have to say, the more one looks at the structure of the weakening and lagging DOW cash and DOW futures, feelings become compelled towards the alternate count of an ongoing Intermediate-iv wave; in particular:

    i. Today’s pullback in the DOW has now overlapped the wave from 06-MAR, which is the equivalent of wave-4 overlapping wave-1 in the SPX.

    ii. The size and volatility of the waves, i.e. the Average True Range (ATR) of the current uptrend is elevated and more akin to corrective ‘crash’ waves.

    Just alternative thoughts for caution.

    • wildmarkets says:

      123 abc- I really like what you do here. I am a bull from the heart and people like you, Tony and others put things in perspective.
      Discipline is the key to success in trading. Getting rid of losers quickly (Hope is useless in the Financial world) and holding winners lot more than your tolerance levels!

    • sunriselmi says:

      the down wave so far has been too short for a wave 4, so on your side. i like the chart extension, creative and useful.

    • ABC: D’accord peut-etre avez-vous raison.
      It would be better if that were true than if the poor showing of minute 3 of Minor 3 were true.

    • fionamargaret says:

      2465…. and that is the lower number in the sequence ….2340 if it overshoots…..depends on the momentum…but that would also get the VXX up more towards its 72 top……Nice 123..x

    • Are all the Fibonacci numbers in relation to the length of intermediate III?

  22. SPYtrader says:

    Here is my long term view of the markets based on Holly Silver’s demented hatred for Trump. Some down wave (I’m not a wave person) ends the night of the mid-term elections in November because the hatred for Trump has the democrats winning total control of the House and Senate. A powerful wave up starts with impeachment proceedings beginning immediately. After Trump is impeached in early 2019 the hatred for Trump around the world causes all 7.5 billion people on the planet to start buying stocks. This euphoria continues into 2020 where a woman democrat wins the WH (probably Oprah). Now the world population of 7.7 billion people goes into hyper mode and continues buying stocks for the next 4 years now that Trump and his family are in prison and Oprah has her tv show on again everyday from the WH. The entire world is celebrating that Trump is no longer a menace to society. My target price for the DOW on this unbelievable wave up is
    317,811 to be hit on April 8th, 2024. During this enormous 6 year wave up I see only 7 down days occurring. Sorry Phil there will be no reason to day trade. Just ride the gigantic wave from no more Trump to hate. My support for Trump never wavers and I am consoled by the fact that I followed the super ultra bullish OEW and became a billionaire. The end.

  23. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks and much love to Tony……and everyone xx

    Same symphony…..but different…

    • fionamargaret says:

      I always wanted to hear Furtwangler’s interpretation, and they did wonderful sound reconstruction on this recording…1947
      I really like how Furtwangler slows the tempo, and almost, like turning over a stone on a rainy day, you notice the moss, indentations and hues…and it just makes you smile and glad to be alive….x

  24. Using ES, today’s sharp decline is very possibly a terminal ‘c’ wave of abc expanded flat to complete a 4th wave, with new rally highs on deck in the next couple days if so. The 2nd wave of this rally since 3-2 low was a simple zigzag that completed shortly after the Cohn resignation Globex Gap Down.
    ES 2820-32 should be a brick wall resistance zone for the current rally if new rally highs occur this week. If not, then probably not much res. until at least a Double Top attempt at ATH.

  25. Last new post tonight. Bears , don’t overstay your welcome (re. my 6:47PM EST post, with DH chart).

    Chart… https://gyazo.com/5e4bac723d89b32f2d8fde14cb721889

  26. To fiona….enjoy. If this fractal plays out you are truly a talented trader!


  27. Maybe this is why the markets sold off today (below).

    Although I agree 100% with Trump on the issue of tariffs against China for a number of reasons… I shouldn’t mention here..I will not get political, other than to say China is stealing our intellectual capital and China deliberately make it difficult for U.S. imports into China have a fair playing field to compete against Chinese products.

    Something, IMHO, has to be done but I realize that Wall Street doesn’t like the concept of tariffs and neither do I…. as long as both side and playing on a fair level surface to compete from. That being said, all Wall Street cares about is profits. I think we should stand up for what is right and fair to protect our intellectual capital and protect our manufacturing base.

    Now before any of you disagree with me, the attached file are pictures of illegal Apple stores in China…I could have posted 100’s The Gov. is aware of this and does nothing about it.


    Trump demands aides pump up anti-China tariffs

    After the administration’s top trade official presented a package targeting $30 billion a year in imports, the president asked for an even bigger number.


    03/13/2018 02:26 PM EDT

    Updated 03/13/2018 04:14 PM EDT

    • Holly Silver says:

      He specifically went after the EU. Do not attempt to make sense of his nonsense. Allies he attacks while dictators he loves. Facts that can’t be disputed and all will stay silent on that one.

    • purplember says:

      wall st cheers when companies lay people off that’s how F up wall street is

      • Holly Silver says:

        No, they cheer when the economy holds up and they reduce costs at the expense of consumers. that’s the goldilocks scenario. They don’t use emotional moral obligations to dictate profits. That’s why trump was so good to wall street till he imploded on them. Only about the bottom line.

  28. phil1247 says:

    aahmichael says:
    March 6, 2018 at 4:41 pm
    Last Thursday I said that the market had given us the last opportunity to sell at 2731 for many weeks to come. I was incorrect, as just 3 days later, it gave it to us again today. I think today’s opportunity was a gift. We have a perfect setup for a gap and go to the downside tomorrow, and a resumption of the downtrend. Tony’s 2731 pivot truly was a brick wall.

    vivelaamo says:
    March 6, 2018 at 4:49 pm
    You telling me we won’t see 2731 again for many weeks to come?

    Give me some of what you’re smoking pal!

    Try above 2731 by the end of the week.

    BULL vs BEAR

    bear fumbles again
    what IS that bear smoking ?

  29. If 2740 fails run, otherwise a wave 4 in progress

  30. Thanks Tony,
    Nasdaq monthly chart
    APF and fib using closing prices
    Using min-max

  31. rd3777 says:

    Just one big bearish wedge taking the form of a ending triangle in the SPX and matching the EDT in the NDX,

    • That’s why I sold the TQQQ at 184 this afternoon that I bought at 152.20. Connecting the 6630 and 7084 low and the 7438 and this morning’s highs definitely look like a serious wedge. I was thinking about buying them back at the lower trend line probably upper 160’s for the final move up.

    • Billy says:

      rd, aah has already pointed out deficiencies in your potential diagonals. I will point out another. Specifically, the middle wave within any diagonal, whether you label it “3” or “C”, cannot be the longest and this the case in both your charts. At this stage no one can say for certain the market can’t go down from here, but if it does it will not be because of an ending diagonal.

      • R D. says:

        Well than we have a irregular B top in the NDX….btw the FANG stock have been in LT triangles fwiw

  32. Good afternoon traders. No doubt, today was an ugly day for the bulls. However, the bulls have 1 last chance for a “psychological trend change” without too much technical damage done to the charts. I’ll explain….just before the close and again as I type this post, /ES is testing the 61.8% LONG at 2762.50. If this level holds/defended and so far it is, then according to this algorithm, a rally should be underway. The rally could mean that minute 3 and 4 are complete and minute wave 5, started tonight or a variation of abc123 chart (above), micro 3 of minute 3?.

    If /2762.50 breaks, then /ES will trade to lower targets and that’s a potential problem IMHO, from a OEW perspective, as it may force Tony to re-work his count. I’ll stop here and see what happens in the overnight session. Full disclosure, DH chart, didn’t see his video yet, my analysis but being a DH disciple, I’m sure his analysis is similar to mine. I should note that DH is still hot on the 1987 fractal, that I published as a gift to fiona…LOL..that fractal is playing out both in magnitude the Fibonacci 78% traded and the time element, to the day. If this fractal plays out, I’ll post an-updated chart…kudos to DH for seeing this weeks ago!!!

    Chart.. http://eminiaddict.com/emini77/2018-03-13_16-32-16.png

    • Sorry the 61.8% LONG is 2761.53, the low was 2762.50

      • Kisshu2 says:

        Asarantiti what are you using for anchors to get the 2761.53?

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..and I really appreciated your gift Asa…maybe I was ahead of DH with 2609, but a beautiful illustration from you and Mat..

        Now an interesting note from Steve Deppe….
        3/14/2000 the $SOX recorded a bearish outside reversal day from an ATH.
        3/13/2018 the $SOX recorded a bearish outside reversal day from an ATH.
        Knew you would like that..x

    • purplember says:

      from 2647 we only have 3 waves up. if top of wv 1 ~2728 breaks then OEW count is invalid

    • according to DH Vix already broke so indices will more than likely follow even though we could still have another 50% retrace………VIX is leading until its not

      • Doug…100% correct but in many cases, there is always another 50% LONG/SHORT to trade off of. If DH chose a different anchor, the 50% short is still defending. Not to muddy the waters, yes you are correct. Now it time to take a look at other anchors, if any, to see if they are technically being traded off of that some algorithms may trade off of.

        ESPECIALLY. if today’s downdraft was a 100% new event…Trump suggesting additional tariffs against China. I’ve seen this many times, where the algorithms will ignore today’s downdraft as though it never occurred. As always, we’ll see.

  33. the 34 dma has now crossed below the 50 dma on all major indices accept the compq (nasdaq)

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

    • stockop says:

      amen. best barrons article i’ve read in a while. wish i had this mentality a year ago. watch for delta hedging above 280 going into OPEX. could be something fierce if there is no market and that’s why the volume has been sparse, and it hasn’t been for the lack of demand. went back and read kahn’s last piece. sad to see him gone. i like the new guy so far.

    • R D. says:

      The kiss of death..the Barron’s curse is famous.

  35. torehund says:

    Watch Biotech right here, passing 5000 (Btk) and a grand primary 3 could bring it to unheard of highs. Sure Nasdaq and Rut will be dragged along.
    Thanks for your commitment Tony !

  36. stockop says:

    today was really ugly imo. with that said i saw quite a few negative divergences at the low. possible ABC breakout retest for NDX. if that is the case and we rally from here it is going to be explosive. doesn’t look like many people on this blog can see something that bullish. picked up some vol to hedge the tqqq i bought near the close. was incredibly cheap to hedge with vol. something did not feel right at the lows and while i was on the fence about fading myself (the panic i had is a feeling that has lost me much money in the past) I saw the potential abc and pulled the trigger immediately. glta

  37. mcgcapital says:

    Unlikely today marks a bottom, been straight down all day long. Europe looks terrible, another down day tomorrow and FTSE will break support.. still think we see 2500s agin and then a major rally. It just simply hasn’t been enough time to consolidate 18 months of straight line gains and people are taking profits on the rallies

  38. Kisshu2 says:

    phil did you go long at 73 and when did you decide to short after the 38 traded did you wait for .62 to fail or did you wait for bounce off double bottom etc?

    • phil1247 says:

      you couldnt get long until 77
      the sell signal was given at 12:15
      then you usually get a sharp rally which occurred
      started shorting at 87 then piled it on when long broke

      • Kisshu2 says:

        ok but why not just say that then?

        • Kisshu2 says:

          phil the only thing that confused me was the its tricky here … part and if it blast through 85 just hang on … wasn’t sure weather you were referring to a short or long. but keep up the good work.

      • aahmichael says:

        If you couldn’t get long until 77, then what does “buy entry at 73 was good” mean? And what does “…i would be looking for the exits soon…” if you weren’t long from 73? And what does “already up 12 points off the low” mean if you were flat?

        phil1247 says:
        March 13, 2018 at 11:57 am
        buy entry at 73 was good
        but i would be looking for the exits soon on this sell signal
        already up 12 points off the low
        could be sharper rally ahead but caution rules

  39. mjtplayer says:

    SPY bearish engulfing candle today, same as on Feb 27th, should lead to more downside in the days ahead. Perhaps OPEX on Friday is pulling us down

  40. phil1247 says:


    did you think i had gone crazy this morning with…..

    15 min sell given… expect immediate rally ?

  41. 123 abc says:

    Tony, appreciate the update, thank you. A couple of questions if I may…

    Q1. Given that today’s pullback in the DOW has now overlapped the wave on 06-MAR, do you suppose that today’s pullback was rather Minute-iii→Micro-2 wave instead? (first chart below).

    Q2. In regards to the DOW, are you counting the DOW with a truncated failed-fifth occurring at today’s high? (second chart below).

  42. Thanks, Tony. The daily on a buy signal since march 5. The hourly on a sell.


  43. Thanks, Tony. maybe the 50 day ma will help for support, but I see a reliabel 5 wave pattern from the spike/reversal low…a high, a pullback, a swing high, a new lower low, and today’s 5th new high completing the pattern.. I am using your pivots for references..

  44. rd3777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Looks too much like a wave E triangle top. Look for a scary decline here. This market has topped.

  45. chrisk44342 says:

    Thank you TC! You count seems very plausible.

  46. bolderbob says:

    Hi Tony,
    It’s hard to believe we may be ending minute iii in a few days and then have only 2 more moves (down and up) to finish Major 1. At this rate it would seem like the entire move will end in a few weeks before a significant correction for Major 2. It does seem like the most likely ending would be just a slight new high. Would you agree or do you expect something more?

    • llerias7 says:

      Having the same thoughts/doubts…

    • fbqueen3 says:

      So I’m reading this as SPX 3000 will occur later this year??
      Tony how low would you expect
      Major 2 to be.
      Thanks in advance.

      • 123 abc says:

        OEW is currently expecting Major-1 to complete around +3000 possibly in April. Followed by an approx 20% bear market for Major-2 possibly elapsing 12 months.

        • bolderbob says:

          Thanks abc, love your daily chart counts too. It doesn’t seem like 3000 could occur if we are almost done with minute 3 so that is why I am thinking a double top. Tony has taught me that 5ths of importance often do not extend and sometime truncate and I also note that it seems like fewer stocks are really participating in Int 5 of Major 1.

        • Holly Silver says:

          Consistent with my analysis from weeks ago. I wonder if the EU tariffs plays a role. March 23rd was the date of implementation. Maybe resolved by then? Still expect a high around 2988. Still expect a 20 percent drop. Do Not however expect it to last more than 6 months.

          • SPYtrader says:

            Then what? interested in your longer term analysis.

            • Holly Silver says:

              It all depends on how the street sees Trump from here on out. if he stays on his golf course with no tweets we get there, final high followed by 20 percent drop. The correction will come regardless. I do not see the next drop, though big. the final solution. In fact I see a surge after the 6 month drop. I would guess a 30 percent rise in a 12 to 14 month period. But who knows. The way political changes are happening anything is possible.

              I am very nervous here. I keep changing my mind if we do get that new high here or this is truncated and start of big drop. I see external forces develop daily. Looks like special election for a district is now a Democratic one, but still too early to tell. trump is firing people like crazy. Hiring an impeachment lawyer. He will become more unhinged as we get closer to charges. This is not speculation. Not a dem vs republican theme. It’s a fact. if people can’t see how unstable the man is I will never be able to explain it. facts don’t matter, it’s how people interpret facts and make excuses.

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