Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -172

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the CPI was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2796, hit 2802 in the opening moments, then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2783  yesterday. By noon the SPX had dropped 32-points to 2770. Then after a rally to around unchanged at SPX 2783, the market headed lower again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2759, then bounced to end the day at 2765.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude lost 65 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Tomorrow: retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, then business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, reached SPX 2800 for the first time since early February, then sold off for the rest of the day. It looks like the market could have completed Minute iii this morning at SPX 2802, from 2702, and is now pulling back in a Minute iv. Already a steep 40+ point decline in just one day. See SPX hourly chart using the link below. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at today’s highs and ended oversold. Best to your trading this volatile market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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430 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Since there are a few things that can happen,I put 1/2 in the SQQQ this morning at 15.2257 near the high of the run up and the other 1/2 in TQQQ this afternoon near the low at 177.81 to see which way it breaks.

    • fionamargaret says:

      just back…the bias is down..looking at the format this morning (when it was green) I thought a curve ball because finishing down…
      I would be nervous being long…there might be a waterfall ahead…that is why I doubled up on VXX..
      It certainly loved 2750 (Tony’s pivot)….but lower (much)…x

      • travis01 says:

        Fiona – you and I tend to be in the same ballpark most times. That 2750 area (esp 2745) has been a bungee cord for 2 days. I doubled some uvxy longs earlier today for a quick trade and like to see a bit more out of it before a direction is confirmed. Appreciate your info GL

      • phil1247 says:

        incorrect fiona

        the bias is up ……( over 18 day sma)
        and the daily trend is up…..(higher highs and higher lows)
        check ira video

      • Just seeing if the top of last Friday’s gap can over power the downward pressure

  2. Thailand Hawaii says:

    If you read my morning thoughts, it has played out EXACTLY. Narrow range 20 to 30 points.

  3. Vishal says:

    $SPX RSI support .. squeeze into FOMC ?

    • stcoleridge says:

      Squeeze into March Quad witching tomorrow?
      Also if I were a betting man I’d bet that Tony mentions another quantified wave occurring today in his summary later.

    • Vishal says:

      Maybe something like this ?

      • stcoleridge says:

        If today’s low holds into the close I’d bet he sticks with the current count with a potential minute iv at 2741.

  4. phil1247 says:

    es 2742 target is next

  5. Holly Silver says:

    Looks like the market isn’t buying the peddled notion that a trade war is no biggie according to Navarro the WH official. The market should have already been back on track with new leg up. Instead we swim against the stream like salmon spawning. This feels like the market will lose this battle. The pathetic DOW is attempting to rally. A failure today should bring on a cascading drop. IF however we rally from here the end game is not here yet.

    • zvyezda says:

      It seems as if they are doing their best to have a quiet expiration tomorrow. Let’s see what happens after that.

      • Holly Silver says:

        With the WH in shambles, trade war looming, and now Mueller for first time subpoenas Trump organization documents. This is coming to ahead. It looks like we should drop before this weekend and continue Monday to Tuesday.

        • tommyboys says:

          GO TRUMP! Way to get the right people in the right office for every move. White house hardly in shambles LOL – ‘cept on lib FNN – careful heeding itthe way you do – onward and upward no worries! 🙂

  6. Jack kendo says:

    from the cycle and formation,
    3 of 3 triggered, starting 03/16
    03/15 highs:
    DJI 25053
    SPX 2763


  7. scottycj1 says:

    Net NYAD reading -426 —NOT impressive for this rally

  8. fxaprendiz says:

    This is a question for the few bears remaining… What do you guys think of SPX testing/breaching 2530 until April? I had this C wave down finishing by the end of March but the market it’s taking its sweet time to rollover.
    And even if 3 of C is swift and deep SPX could spend days bumping around in 4 of C… Just some thoughts

  9. stan911 says:

    Phil according to Chris Carolan chart should be heading back to 2730-20 if chart is correct?

  10. stan911 says:

    Nice call Phil…we’ll done 👍

  11. aahmichael says:

    How many times have you seen the DOW up 300 points with advancers and decliners dead even? I think this rally is wave C of a flat correction that began at 12:20 pm yesterday at 2747.08.

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