Weekend update

REVIEW.

The week started at SPX 2691. After a gap down opening on Monday, a SPX 2676 low, the market rose for the rest of the week. Tuesday had a gap up opening, but the opening was sold at SPX 2732 and the market declined to 2702 by Wednesday. After that the market resumed its rally and hit SPX 2787 on Friday and closed there. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 4.25%. Economic reports were nearly all negative. On the downtick: ISM services, factory orders, ADP, consumer credit, plus trade deficit and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: monthly payrolls. Next week’s highlights: industrial production, the CPI, retail sales, and the NAHB.

LONG TERM: uptrend

While there are many views on the short term count, there are probably just as many on the long term count as well. Our OEW count suggests the following. A Super cycle bull market ended in October 2007 at SPX 1576. A Super cycle bear market followed to SPX 667 by 2009. After that low another Super cycle bull market began. The first bull market of the new SC was from SPX 667 in 2009 to SPX 2135 in 2015. We labeled that Primary I. A Primary II bear market followed to SPX 1810 in 2016. After that low a Major 1 bull market, of Primary III, began.

From that 2016 SPX 1810 low we have counted Intermediate waves i and ii completing in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1 and 2 , of Int. iii, completing in the fall of 2016. Minor waves 3 and 4 completing in the spring of 2017. Then Minor wave 5 and Int. iii completing in January 2018. After that high at SPX 2873 the market dropped nearly 12%, its biggest correction in 2 years, bottoming at SPX 2533 in February for Int. wave iv. Since then we believe Intermediate wave v, which will carry the market to new highs, has been underway. In support of this scenario we have had WROC signals in recent weeks, and uptrend confirmations in the NDX/NAZ and SOX this week.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

After the selloff in February to SPX 2533, the market displayed several positive RSI divergences at the low. These divergences usually suggest a downtrend low is in progress. The market then rallied to SPX 2754 in just several trading days, and we labeled that rally Minor wave 1. A small pullback followed to SPX 2698, a rally to SPX 2789 generating a WROC signal, then a sharp drop to SPX 2647. Tricky market activity, which we eventually labeled an irregular Minor 2.

The market then had a sharp rally to SPX 2732 by Tuesday. Another pullback followed to SPX 2702 by Wednesday. Then the market rallied into week’s end. We are labeling this activity part of Minor 3: Minute i: 2732, Minute ii 2702, Minute iii currently underway. With the NDX/NAZ already making new all time highs, we expect the SPX and DOW to all make new highs shortly. Medium term support is at the 2780 and 2731 pivots, with resistance at the 2798 and 2835 pivots.

SHORT TERM

With Minute iii of Minor 3 potentially underway, we can now project a general target for Minor 3. At SPX 2868 Minor 3 would equal Minor 1. This is only 5-points below the all time high. A 1.62 relationship to Minor 1 would suggest SPX 3005. Oddly just 5-points above SPX 3000.

In either case Minor 3 should advance in five Minute waves. Only Minute waves i and ii have completed and wave iii is underway now. Short term support is at the 2780 and 2731 pivots, with resistance at the 2798 and 2835 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher and gained 0.5%.

European markets were all higher and gained 2.9%.

The DJ World index gained 2.7%, and the NYSE gained 2.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.1%.

Crude is also in a downtrend but gained 1.3%.

Gold is in a downtrend but gained 0.1%.

The USD is also in a downtrend but gained 0.3%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: budget deficit at 2pm. Tuesday: the CPI. Wednesday: retail sales, the PPI, and business inventories. Thursday: jobless claims, export/import prices, the Philly FED, the NY FED, and the NAHB. Friday: housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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411 Responses to Weekend update

  1. phil1247 says:

    Dow canary choking again

    “SPX traders ” ignore at your own peril

  2. well a micro wave or minute 3 ended at 2801.
    .318 retrace 2770 hit 2769 already could be done but guessing 1 more wave down then up
    .38 2763
    .50 2755
    .618 2740
    Good luck all

  3. gary61b says:

    ES 2781 is HWB from low to high.

  4. Still very difficult to read to this market.
    Holding SPX 278 calls and 277 Puts till end of april.
    Which ones should I loose?

  5. Holly Silver says:

    This drop short lived. Why the market even cares about political nonsense it’s beyond me. Tillerson the man that got the highest non-citizen medal from Putin leaves. No biggie. yet another WH aide was fired? Yup this one is a winner. no wife beating. No this had to do with Homeland investigation on financial charges. Who cares, this swamp is so full no one even bothers anymore. BUT, just like Porter’s endorsement by Kelly AFTER he knew all his baggage we have the WH Immediately announce Mcentree, the latest fired aide, will be joining Trump’s campaign. Now i know the loyalists for trump will just keep those blinders on waiting for the FOX announcement, making it look like the guy is being railroaded by trumps own hand picked intelligence people. But hey, the same brain dead accepted the last 60 scandals, so what’s one or two more? Uranium One, Benghazi, Unmasking, Wiretapping, Hillary, Obama and of course the DEMS. Seems every single time trump shows the most unpatriotic treasonous side his supporters get fog brained and seem to remember a time before trump when they can echo the conspiracy theories without anything to disrupt their reverie.

    • lunker1 says:

      NO POLITICS ALLOWED!

    • aahmichael says:

      Now they’re just firing anyone who won’t lie for them. Total chaos. (Oh, and Tony’s pivot nailed it again today.)

      • no big deal for Tony’s pivots to be involved on turns at this point…….we have one at 2780 (2773 -2787) 2798 (2791-2805) so pivots are practically running 32 consecutive points minus 88-90 that is one big span for pivots……its one of the problems I have with Tony’s pivots …….they are so large

        • aahmichael says:

          I look for the confluence of Tony’s pivots and my counts and other technical tools that I use. They all lined up today at Tony’s 2798 pivot.

      • gary61b says:

        Is treason punishable by hanging?

        • zvyezda says:

          I think it is – for the lucky ones, perhaps the ones who turn state’s evidence. For their other crimes, such as ‘harvesting’ adrenochrome and ‘walnut sauce’ the only way to destroy the satanic infestation is to burn them alive.

          Dual purpose steel platform erected in Guantanamo bay with a Navy frigate to pull along side it every day to hose off the ashes in disperse them in the free flowing waters of the sea..

        • tony caldaro says:

          Only if your name is Adam Schiff

          • zvyezda says:

            Tony, the Standard Hotel in L.A. that Schiff is tied to was cited for using extreme quantities of muriatic acid and then dumping them in the sewer system causing an environmental gas release hazard in the nearby metro station. On the other Podesta is alleged to dispose of ‘evidence’ on his hog farm.

            So perhaps let the punishment suit the crime.

      • aahmichael says:

        I only weep for those to believe this nonsense. Even the guy who wrote it said it was just based on his own conjecture and that he had zero actual evidence to support it. Is your real name Edgar Welch?

    • Holly Silver says:

      The Bullish technical indicators are smacking against the very bearish implosive WH. That’s your volatility folks. Check out the timing when this started. Who says politics can’t play into a stock market directional change. The market dropped today as soon as the announcement of the aide being fired. Wit till the EU and their newly formed alliance puts trump into hysterics when they announce their own tariffs, refuse to sit down with trump for negotiations, and meet his auto tariff with their own. man is this going to be fun!

      I look exclusively first at news since the economic stimulus is taking strong momentum and technical shows no damage what so ever yet. I do question all those on THIS site? Many ignore Tony’s interpretation so why bother? Seems his BIG announcement on the super bullish indicator and a trend line consistent with a normal resumption upward should have everyone looking to buy the dips. Could personal bias be the cause?

      • mcgcapital says:

        I don’t get why people comment about others taking the other side of the trade to the primary OEW count. I’ve seen the people doing the criticising trading the other side of the market before in the past, yourself included Holly with the new highs call at 1810. If TC wanted only comments that are in line with his count then surely some people would have been censored by now. Diversity of opinion is what makes this site great and better than many others

      • zvyezda says:

        Now that is a reason for taking a position.

        Just leave out the “kvetch” when you feel the need to proclaim it.

      • stcoleridge says:

        My question is are we in micro 4 or minute iv?

    • mcgcapital says:

      I detect a hint of sarcasm here given the constant rants about how Trump’s antics will bring down the market

    • randomacts4 says:

      Holly, with all due respect, I agree with Lunker. Not trying to be a spoil-sport here, but I enjoy reading market comments without political commentary. Thank you…

      • aahmichael says:

        Politics can absolutely drive market moves. When Cohn’s departure was announced last week, ES dropped 40 points in a matter of minutes. This morning, when Tillerson’s firing was announced, ES dropped 12 points in 1 minute. For people who use stops and/or limits, these things matter.

        • randomacts4 says:

          aahmichael – True, and understand completely, thank you. Speaking only for myself, I can sometimes get sidetracked by posts that tend to venture more into that arena than appears necessary. But I appreciate your comments and pov nonetheless..

    • The news was already known before the market opened. You can’t attribute the drop to this news. The market gapped up big despite this news. Look elsewhere.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Yes Roland, but take into account the VXX was in this sequence to 72 for a few days, folks are sitting on profits, the long bond is elevated (strange with rate hikes), and the algo they are using has a bias down….
        2731, and lower…

  6. phil1247 says:

    spx 15 min sell signal given ……….. not DH
    expect sharp rally immediately

  7. lunker1 says:

    es more no man’s land. Shorts and long is not reaching targets and breaking. SPX -D Tonys pivot. SPX opening trade range drove down.

  8. chrisk44342 says:

    Really enjoying observing the DH method playing out. The last 24 hrs has shown how a trader can be whipsawed with the method, but that’s ok because if you use it properly, the stops are fairly tight. It’s not all unicorns and rainbows, but what trading method is? The good thing about it is it ‘imposes’ a fairly strict discipline on the trader where the stops are small relative to the reward, which is how this game is won if you have the discipline and the fortitude to follow the method despite the occasional whipsaw period.

    • Chrisk…There was a micro LONG entry shortly after the NYSE. That was the only entry into the long this morning. If you took it and place a stop and raised your stop to a profitable stop you would have been stopped out at a gain. If you then took a short when /ES printed a double top and /VX was bouncing off a 50% LONG you would still be in the short trade.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Fair enough. Where you place an arbitrary stop like a BE is really a matter of trading preference. I am referring to the method in a general sense. You are talking about watching the VIX and using that as a barometer of how you trade, along with EW. That is not really the DH method, but it is yours and I understand. I am having a theoretical discussion with myself as much as anything about the merits of trading micro (and swing) extensions.

      • BTW, if I were short ear the top, I would cover my position at 2782.75 and bank the profits. /ES breaking 2797.89 would be a definite cover all shorts. It was 11:30 at that time, the European close, trading slows down and it’s often a reversal period where traders book their profits. Wait till the next set up.

    • Kyle Munsey says:

      FT71 shows a 2-tick Renko & BookMap view of the short trade that may be of interest.
      https://twitter.com/FuturesTrader71/with_replies

      Scroll down a bit & click on the chart.

    • lunker1 says:

      this is why I like phil’s enhance use of the method. yesterday es in extension long from the fast move up and the .618 is at 2780. stop at 2779. could have added at the dip to .50 at 2785. so yesterday you’re green on all trades. then phils canary warning about Dow extension long breaking = chop = guard profits. then es trades the .618 at 97 short (but no reason to act on the short still waiting for longs to reach target) and reacts down. but still green on all longs. But maybe you took some profit. then today’s spike to 2807 combines with Tony’s -D at the pivot screamed caution protect profit. then the SPX opening range broke down and the 15min candle printed lower low so maybe you sold the 85’s at 98 and maybe some/all of the longs from a few days ago. maybe you saved some longs for the stop at 79. Also realize the DH uses Tick to help confirm trades. but what I see that’s very important is that Phil is very positionally aware of where his trade is and is very quick to add on extensions and very quick protect profit and always avoid loss

      • lunker1 all great observations. I think what you will come to realize is that the placement of your anchors is the key. DH is far more conservative in his anchors and very, very disciplined. Phil is a bit more aggressive. Nothing wrong with that as long as you know both set-ups. That’s why I always say knowing where to place anchors is an art and a science.

        • chrisk44342 says:

          very good points asa. It’s an approach and the proof is in the pudding for the individual trader in terms of how they implement it, experience with it, etc. Good on Phil for developing an edge that works for him.

        • lunker1 says:

          Phil might be more aggressive with anchors but it’s actually because he’s a more conservative trader. He piles in on extensions but protects profit and rarely takes a loss. He does a great job of sniffing out the chop and staying away

  9. micky says:

    almost made 61% of the what could also be called a wave A at 2780’s

  10. scottycj1 says:

    Trading below 2778 SPX could open the floodgates

  11. mcgcapital says:

    Having another go on shorts here at 2800.. FTSE and Dax already moving down again. As good a place as any for an entry

  12. scottycj1 says:

    Reaching the .786 retrace

  13. Mary773 says:

    Naz and NDX at all time highs, along with the SOX, Computer tech, disk drives, regional banks, and broker dealers. Technology and financials leading, with the NYSE A/D on the verge of new highs. Sentiment remains restrained. If this is a false breakout, it is quite a convincing one. SPX stopped at resistance yesterday (Bollinger Band, Fibonacci retracement and extensions), but if/when that gives way SPX and DJI should play catch up. Still thinking the public is about to throw caution to the wind and pile in.

  14. jobjas says:

    SPX next target 2840

  15. Bud Fox says:

    NYA200, all NYSE stock above their respective 200 day ma.
    We have a clear negative pattern that’s formed over the last 2
    years, http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui NYA200 therefore.
    Is now a major Negative market signal. Long term investors
    may wish to consider, reducing their exposure to the SP500 index, etc.

  16. elmer510 says:

    I think the market nowdoes not look very impulsive, moe like it’s exhausted after long time of upturns and hew ATHs. So perhaps this gonne be a failed 5th IM wave – truncated is the word Mr Caldaro is using.
    Perhpas not more than 2868 or around that before Major 2 Armageddon.

  17. Theodore Lerts says:

    Case closed. Wave 4 is officially over. Bull train Express.

  18. stockop says:

    after reviewing my charts i gotta say the market is sending mixed signals. /nq is what I am watching. tomorrow is mightily important. /ym looks like a straight up reversal and /es giving a gravestone.

    bulls (me included) might be about to get the rug pulled. maybe sideways all week? triple witching is this friday.

    if we get a new high tomorrow i’m beginning to think it should be sold. I personally am eyeing iwm for a short if I flip. CPI released premarket tomorrow. i expect the markets to react. i feel like i’ve been here before and my gut says one more marginal high at a minimum. we shall see.

  19. R D. says:

    Looks like the NDX after kissing the LT upper TL, has 5 down from the top. Shall see.

  20. phil1247 says:

    Lunker

    did you post under crustys name on your blog ?
    i seriously doubt he would say that about himself

  21. Holly Silver says:

    Market in the zone. No change in trend. My 2 main external bombs. One, Mueller, will hold off on obstruction charges till he gets all the other charges done. I count 6 major investigations. TWO, EU Tariffs. just heard from EU and they used the words “we will not be bullied”. No negotiation only waiting to see if Trump enacts tariff.

    Trumps 6 business bankruptcies certainly makes him qualified to bankrupt the world. We are in the calm before the storm. it will get ugly. I expect circuit breaker ugly. Clock still ticking till D-day 3/23 or earlier. my guess is this goes to the wire.

    • R D. says:

      All the criminals will be brought before a special military tribunal and I guarantee it will not be Trump. The US Military has had this planned since 2013 and there are at last count 15,000 federal indictments. A secret prosecutor has been appointed by the AG and is working with OIG Horowitz. The market will go down because of a lot of things,but especially malfeasance of every kind and none of it can be hung on Trump. He’s just the grim reaper and it’s about time and everybody knows it.

      • waterstim says:

        Me thinks this Holly Silver person is actually Hillary

        • Bud Fox says:

          🙂 not sure Holly would appreciate that comment. but if the shoe fits?

          • Holly Silver says:

            There is nothing that anyone can say about this great president. He is smart, determined, motivated, hard working, coherent, and always look out for his people even at the expense of himself. the trillions of criminal investigations, criminal and unethical staff, daily tweets of lies, unhinged rants, is just a show he puts on. How anyone today can remotely claim he is presidential is beyond words. It’s as if you don’t live in the same universe. Mulligan anyone?

            Going after the EU and siding ALL THE TIME with Turkey and Russia is just developing a new alliance. I suppose only a Russian soldier with his automatic gun drawn, stationed in your town might, just might get you a little concerned. But we will have the demi-god and his parade. What no tanks or nukes like North Korea? Outrage!

      • Lee X says:

        Uranium one meets Major one ?

        • tony caldaro says:

          Second special counsel Major 2?

          • zvyezda says:

            Tony, Major 2 at least. By the time they get around to actually doing anything, the timing will be perfect.

            M.I. recruited him to run, then my hunch is a former state dept. psychiatrist came up with a plan to prepare the people and mobilize support and now Trump is getting off playing James Bond in all of this while the program is being implemented by a bunch of junior people who don’t know up from down. Their constant refrain is “trust the plan, don’t worry” , translation: WORRY!

            And I do not like one bit the recent direction their iniative has taken. I suspect the ultimate puppeteers behind both the ‘good M.I.’ elements (who really know squat) and behind Trump.

    • purplember says:

      Obama’s $9,000,000,000,000.00 in 8 years didn’t bankrupt country though. again what color is the sky in your world.

    • Polite suggestion. Why not focus your attention and energy on the Clinton Foundation and Killary? Your digging would actually uncover some corruption. Prez Trump is rattling the time-honored corrupt political cages and getting real work accomplished. Let him be.

  22. lunker1 says:

    es has a .50 long at 84 and a .618 short at 97. The short seemed to have the more dramatic reaction so we’ll see

    • lunker1 How long have you been following DH?. You caught on real quick!..congrats. You are correct about the shorts….it has a slight edge for 2 reasons..
      1. The profit target @ /ES 2778.68 from the original setup hasn’t traded yet
      2. The 61.8% SHORT was tested and was defended.

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Quick scan through and see no posts from CN. Shame. 😔

  24. torehund says:

    Lower order 2 intraday to finish off the day, lets hope 🙂

    • Bud Fox says:

      I enjoyed that song….
      would you have a link, so I can save it?

      • torehund says:

        You are welcome Bud, if you push it twice you get to you tube site itself, then you find the link automatically on the browser. If I paste it here the video itself paste, but not the link. Hope this helps.

    • abc, could the sub-waves of wave 3 be 1 degree smaller? If not, minor wave 3 could be quite small compared to minor wave 1. Yes, I know that is OK but that would also mean that minor wave 5 will be less than wave 3 and this rally is much closer to completion than
      I thought both in terms of time and magnitude..5 wave failure can’t be r/o as wave could complete close to making a nominal new ATH. I know it’s a bit early but may want to place stops or sell longs into future rallies.

      • 123 abc says:

        Yes, the sub waves of Minute-iii could be a degree smaller. But keeping it simple for now.

        For now, expecting Minute-iii→Micro-5 to subdivide into Nano waves like Minute-iii→Micro-3 did.

        And if that happens, then Minor-3 would already equal Minor-1 with Minor-3→Minute-iv and Minor-3→Minute-v yet to take place; hence there wouldn’t be a concern of Minor-3 being short.

  25. My best count is this 17 point pull back was nothing.
    looking for 2840 which is the 1.618 of the 85 point up move to end minute 3
    So a count something like this
    Minor 3
    2647-2732
    2732-2702
    2702-2840
    2840-2796
    2796-2881 new high and end minor 3

    Minor 4 .318 correction 74 points 2807
    2881-2807

    minor 5 equals 1 with 222 point or 3,029 to end this
    2807-3029

    then drop 20 percent to 2400 level

    Good luck all

  26. aahmichael says:

    FWIW:
    2647 + 144 = 2791
    2702 + 89 = 2791
    2740 + 55 = 2795

  27. H D says:

    Tony’s 2780 pivot—-

    don’t let the heavy posters talk you out of good set ups. SPX is the traders market. We don’t “correlate” NQ’s or YM’s with SPX

    • chrisk44342 says:

      I think you are misstating things but that’s ok. Good luck HD

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Also, you may have noticed that Tony also weighs other markets when assessing his own EW count.

        • H D says:

          Hi Chris, re-read all 250+ comments and let me know what was more relevant than the 2798 and 2780 SPX pivots today!?! GL to you too.

          • Folks would rather talk about how the market “looks to them” than trade the market as it actually shows itself to be. Don’t get upset, HD. Be thankful that you are the trader you are rather than the analyst so many wish to be. Tony reports “Short term support is at the 2780 and 2731 pivots, with resistance at the 2798 and 2835 pivots,” and yet the most often mentioned figures regarding the $SPX seem to be 2400 to 2500.

            • H D says:

              Thx amigo. I get a little sarcastic sometimes and can’t even tell if I’m joking anymore or not. Just doing my best to give my POV on the SPX. I’ll keep trying. Maybe this will help convey the pivot message, a more familiar lexicon for some :mrgreen:

    • lunker1 says:

      HD enough of the taunting already. Personal attacks not allowed. Focus on your view.

  28. NEWBIE says:

    I wonder what the bad news is that is going to come out tonight and be used as the excuse to slam the market down huge tomorrow..

  29. tommyboys says:

    A/D counterintuitively decently positive today…

  30. torehund says:

    Intraday wave 2 bottom right here ?

  31. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Bullish indicators:Nasdaq and IWM bullishly embedded.
    Bearish possibility:HYG pulled back to the 18d (85.80l,so far held.The 100d was tested earlier at 86.06.Needs to break through for an all clear up.Break of 85.80,troublesome.GDX needs to get above 21.90 (10 and 20d)to buy.Otherwise,hold until 21 is broken to the downside.Later all.

  32. wildmarkets says:

    Gone flat on my SPX longer-term calls in the am.

    Thanks, Tony and few other good chartists.

    Looking to wait and buy on any pullin or consolidation. I am ok to miss this non stop move now. AMZN, MU, NTNX, NFLX and many along with SOX and NDX going somewhat parabolic.

  33. NEWBIE says:

    I’m looking for a quick 100 point swoosh down on spx in next few days to get this bear party started.

    • Thailand Hawaii says:

      Hi Newbie, I think that you are right on …… BUT you got one word wrong DAYS should be WEEKS

    • spacepikle says:

      LOL. So, minor 3 cannot be smaller than minor 1, and you’re looking for 100 points down? Good luck with that. It sounds like your trying to sell puts so you can buy calls, because OEW contains zero evidence for 100 points down being on deck. Expect micro 4 to end between 2768-2759 prior to the resumption of the uptrend. That’s what OEW is calling for.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Lol why do people think posters can try and talk the market their way so they can unload positions and go the other way? Obviously none of us have any significance vs the market.

    • pooch77 says:

      Very high chance dont hapoen this week

    • Jack kendo says:

      NEWBIE, 100 point down is too conservative.
      from what i see, greater than 90% probability, at least 200 point down, or even 2550 by end of this week.
      cheers!

  34. There are two gaps to be filled on top.
    one is really close at 2808 and the next one is further away at 2840..
    Wouldn’t it be nice the SPX closes both gaps before dropping? that way it would also complete wave 3 of 3..

  35. mcgcapital says:

    Wouldn’t actually be surprised to see 2500s before 2800s here.. but let’s see

  36. phil1247 says:

    Chris Carolan’s call
    of monday top and swoosh down
    starting to look pretty good
    see chart at beginning of weekend posts

    • phil1247 says:

      Dow canary choking on a bone
      about to break extension long

      • Simon s says:

        seems like they popped your 61.8 and ran it right back up…

        seems like another telling story of an eventual move down to come eventually?

        • phil1247 says:

          probably simon

          but all it says to me now is dont buy
          because support is now near fridays low
          too much risk

          • Thailand Hawaii says:

            Phil, thought your 61.8 was at 2780? Just hit 2783.75 and then rallied.

          • chrisk44342 says:

            Not sure I see the merit of looking towards the Dow Phil. We’re talking about a much smaller market concentration. If one was trading the YM, I can see using ES as a barometer. Look at NQ- it’s the complete opposite and suggests the ES .50 is a gift.

            • phil1247 says:

              i dont like nq either
              they all look like a swoosh to me

            • phil1247 says:

              chris .. YM daily ext long failed
              now in 15 min ext short
              no way i can buy anything until ext short is broken

              • chrisk44342 says:

                Yes, I understand- that’s part of your routine and I get that. The guy who mentored me always weighed what was leading prior to the correction. E.G.- what was leading on Friday- was it NQ or was it YM. If NQ was leading, he gave that the heavier weighting on the correction.

              • phil1247 says:

                i understand
                i choose not to get involved when dow is swooshing
                es and nq could go up but i dont want to be blinsided by dow implosion
                fractured market is not a healthy market

              • phil1247 says:

                dow ext short target is close
                .. maybe it can turn around there

              • chrisk44342 says:

                Yep of course we would rather see everything moving in unison. That’s why i was asking if you were following anything else today, e.g. gold, fx, etc.

              • Thailand Hawaii says:

                Where id short target?

              • chrisk44342 says:

                thai, i am not following the dji but i am guessing Phil has the target around 25163

  37. gary61b says:

    ES, possible micro 4 of minute 3 in progress.

  38. lunker1 says:

    the es short 625am from the .618 at 2800.75 bounced at its 2nd target -.382 at 2792.5 and just broke the .618 short for the entire drop at 2800.38. Now resume the trend up? Maybe a new retrace long from 92.5 low?

    • travis01 says:

      I’m sitting in cash but usually for me when vix is climbing with a climbing market I look for a short term retest downward. Wouldn’t be surprised for 2780 next, but not sure so I am watching.

      • lunker1 says:

        yep VIX hit lower bb Friday SPX hit upper bb today

      • travis01 says:

        Lunker I like that perspective. Know there may not be a book on it, but info helps. This thing is as much art as science. Went short at 2794 area looking for 2780 then decide. Problem is, now have to see if action is to lower pivot/ext or reverse back to Tony’s high 2800s. If you see something on charts now, I’d appreciate the info to learn. Typically this is where I would mess up a trade in the old days. Pretty good at direction and longer pivots, not so much at shorter turns but doing well with them lately.

      • DING! DING DING! I think you are correct. I was thinking about going long SSO for 3 of 3 then I saw /VX an said no thank you. Something is wrong 3 of 3 should not have today’s price action. Ugly close, something might happen in the overnight session either in Asia or at the European open….we’ll see.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yes that’s what I would assume but no rush

    • chrisk44342 says:

      The problem with that kind of trade is where is your stop?

  39. jobjas says:

    SPX target today 2810

  40. phil1247 says:

    ESM8

    2780 should be strong support……… or else

  41. mcgcapital says:

    Europe weakening again this morning, well off the opening highs.. FTSE looks like it completed some sort of b wave at the high. It’s been tending to trend 3-4 days in each direction of late so could be turning down which still looks bearish on the weekly as another lower high. Will be a test for this potential uptrend as to whether it can just have a single down day today and resume rallying tomorrow

    • travis01 says:

      I’ve been spouting this for past couple years to friends/co-workers. My company is $8B and cut bonuses, sales people, sites but uses free cash flow to do buybacks. Execs get stock options as pay, workers flat and don’t keep up with cost of living, key positions removed to cut costs, and CEO spouts to Wall Street how our stock is climbing. Pretty good deal for him even though our top line decrease YOY. I sit in a lot of board rooms and see this quite often. Similar to QE by govt.

  42. Good morning all. Below is DH’s chart for this mornings trading session. Not much help this morning, as Friday’s powerful rally, had no technical entries into the LONG and a long way down to the next 50% measured move LONG at /ES 2769.88 (yellow line), can’t r/o a bullish entry into the 38.1% LONG. Should /ES trade above 2801.72 ( a break of the micro 61.8% SHORT… red line) then I expect a rally to the profit target at 2821.95

    I am going to watch the GAPFILL at /ES 2791.25 as a possible entry into the LONG with a profit target at /ES 2821.95. Rationale..wave 3 of 3.

  43. Thanks for an excellent and insightful weekend update. May good health be your fortune.

  44. Bud Fox says:

    SP500 on the OEW chart —- would prefer the W1 at 2799.
    I am looking at the pattern, more in the macro view, that said.
    That is my view….

    • quickrick38 says:

      Bud, I’m seeing a triangle that ends right around 2840. I will not be long at that point. Better to miss a rally that lose my shirt.

  45. Holly Silver says:

    As of Sunday night Trump is going to hit the EU on tariffs. Yet the futures market is up? I guess until the EU strikes back the market is content. I do not however feel the market holds up once a trade war on both sides is announced. trump doubles down in his tweet that he will strike the autos if the EU dare to retaliate. I give odds of them doing so at 90%. When? EU can’t wait for the WTO simply because it takes so long and can be contested for months. My ear is glued exclusively towards EU announcements.

    Besides that minor issue the market has a new target and the old one just got taken out. I think this move to a final conclusion is going to be speeded up. Double top or a close at around 3,000 on SPX?

    • Holly Silver says:

      Momentum targets for AMZN is an important one. Since it has such market moving powers we are approaching one target of 1596.43 If that gets taken out next one is 1639.19. On ESH18 (SP 500 e-mini March contract). target dead ahead at 2809.75

      They might both be show stoppers. I suspect they both break or get repelled at those targets. If they both hit targets but can’t move beyond that’s a big red warning for me.

      • Holly Silver says:

        I just realized Trump puts tariffs in affect on 3/23. EU has to respond on or before that date. Trump will double down on threat against autos on same day. I must readjust my assumptions on market direction. Given the stakes are so high a full blown trade war with EU will drop the world markets as deep if not deeper than the last 300 point plunge in SPX. My best guess is that we drop to a low of 2530 – 2440 range.

        I must go by my gut feeling. I don’t think the market can ignore this second time a trade war. Therefore i will watch for entry for a long shot out of money bet. Too many things are coinciding to a realization that a drop of equal or higher proportions from the last one will be appropriate. Will trump change his mind? Will the EU just accept the tariffs? my answer to both is no. We have a definitive timeline for this to occur. Can’t get much better odds and tip off of external events that will cause such a drop. Those technicians that dismiss my fundamental bet should at least look to see how market responds to EU announcement and be prepared.

    • zvyezda says:

      Holly, those are good and valid arguments in analyzing how the market may react to various political contingencies. In the longer term larger trends come into play but the shorter time frames can definitely be affected by news events.

      There are events going on behind the scenes and while I am very suspicious of the ultimate puppeteers and their true objectives in the hidden parts of the narrative that will be presented in the coming year, it is going to be a game changer. The trick in working through it profitably will be to first throw away all the conventional frames of reference as presented by the media.

      So DO think of conspiracies, just think of them in a completely different way with more twists and turns than you can imagine: then figure out what that does to price.

      I’m willing to work with you on here because you have a head on your shoulders and can think creatively – but for the dolts, no prisoners.

  46. lunker1 says:

    add 5 to these numbers for the new es contract

    es fib targets

    from 2647 low
    1.236 2851
    1.382 2889
    1.618 2951

    from 2681 low
    1.236 2755
    1.382 2768
    1.618 2789
    2.618 2876

    from 2701 low
    1.618 2750
    2.618 2792
    4.236 2860

    resistance at 2789-92 target cluster?
    prior B high is 2789.5

    ••• Now the cluster is 2794-97•••

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