Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, pullback, then higher highs: DOW +307

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 jobless claims were reported higher, the PPI higher, the Philly FED higher, plus the NY FED lower and industrial production lower. the market gapped up to SPX 2718 at the open, then pulled back to 2690 by 11am. The market had closed at SPX 2698 yesterday. At 10am the NAHB was reported unchanged. After the low the market rallied throughout the day. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2731 and ended the day there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rose 90 cents, Gold ticked up $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support  remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: options expiration, housing starts, building permits and export/import prices; then consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday the market had a gap down opening (2649) on rising inflation numbers. But quickly recovered to close the gap within the first hour of trading. Then the SPX hit 2702 in the afternoon. Today the market gapped up at the open, hit SPX 2718, then pulled back to 2690 by 11am. After that the market made higher highs in the afternoon and closed at SPX 2731. The market has now rallied nearly 200 SPX points from the recent 2533 downtrend low. Positive divergences setup on many timeframes at the low, and the market continues to act like it should when uptrending again. With the market closing at the 2731 pivot, the next objective would be the 2780 pivot. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with a negative divergence. Best to your Opex trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend?

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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205 Responses to Thursday update

  1. quickrick38 says:

    Anyone else notice that while the SPX was running neck & neck with the ES towards the end of the day…the SPX dropped 4pts below the ES in the last minute of trading? Thought that was rather interesting.

  2. Bud Fox says:

    FYI… SP500 price low is 2593.
    Equaling, near the low of 2/6/18
    Interesting to see how that est. works out.

  3. fionamargaret says:

  4. Bud Fox says:

    SP500 highs, of 2872. Are safe for the time being. IMO.

  5. phil1247 says:

    hey asa

    welcome back from aruba
    we have 4 to 5 inches of snow coming
    for your welcome back present
    enjoy !

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Hey phil. So i take it you were stopped out when the extension long violated 2729 or do you use price action of some kind once it breaks back through the .50?

    • hi phil;..just got back into our apartment…did I miss anything this week?…LOL!

      Busy this weekend but I will try and post a chart on the similarities of today’s trading activity and 2008. I mentioned it, during the week but I will post a chart. I will also post a chart to show Fiona that IMHO, /ES tested the low successfully and actually printed a textbook case of a double bottom.

    • Hi phil…Had a great time in Aruba. Right now it’s sunny with a deep blue sky. Yes, I know what’s on the horizon! Going to post a chart or two over the weekend would appreciate your chiming in as I know there might be some who will disagree.

      • Hi Asa. I read the blog daily and really enjoy all of the comments. I am curious as to what you see for Tuesday. I have some IWM 152 PUTS that expire 2/23 and would like to have another opinion (or more) as to where the market will be by then. THANKS!

        • Hi David…The big boys closed the market at a “peculiar level”…IMHO no man’s land. If you look at the 61.8% LONG …the red line, it was breached early morning and at the close. That would suggest that if the market were to trade technically, the market could open down on Tuesday.

          However and I have said this many times before and took heat for saying this…when the market trade off a significant news driven story, algorithms will ignore that activity and trade off a previous technical low/high anchor to determine 50% and 61.8% LONG and SHORTS. Friday was no exception. Heading into a holiday weekend/week and Mueller announces 13 Russians indicted…traders didn’t know if Trump or Trump Adm. officlas will be dragged into this and investors with 5% gains this week sold first and asked questions second.

          To answer your question directly, if /ES trades above the upper yellow line (old 50% LONG), if I had puts I would sell them.

          • Thanks ASA! I see what appears to be a H&S formation which might not be worth a hill of beans. I also observed it on the IWM chart. Guess we’ll see what happens at the open Sunday night. Thanks again!

  6. hohoho598 says:

    Man this has been the most fun and profitable 2 weeks for the last 6 months. Keep the volatility coming big boys. Buy-sell-repeat, not just buy-sleep!!

  7. Flat close posible…… would be nicer to see a negative close in order to increase the confidence of the bears

  8. phil1247 says:

    thanks for your comment
    i just saw your post scrolling thru before i leave

    will go over silver on weekend for you
    bottom line ………….i am still a broken record
    dont like silver
    ……… dont like GDX
    only gold … and that is trying my patience
    have a great long weekend

  9. learnedmylesson25 says:

    GdX speeding downward.If I didn’t know better,I’d say its leading S&P.

  10. Kisshu2 says:

    phill, does bull above change to 2733 or still 2729? you see evidence of short developing?

    • phil1247 says:

      the extensions on es are too whacky to rely on
      i am using the traditional that traded at oval
      tricky area here …..probably no trade is the best trade
      probably done till next week
      good luck

  11. alexh110 says:

    10 days down into the low, now 5 days up.
    50% Fib time ratio, retracing to the 62% Fib price ratio.
    Look likes it’s worth a punt shorting here.
    Suspect we may get a 5 day downtrend next for time symmetry, possibly making an Int iv flat at 2532?

    • alexh110 says:

      On the hourly chart I can see four cycles from the 2532 low, each one weaker than the last and shorter on the time axis. Looks like an uptrend running out of energy, no obvious third waves, just lots of 3-3-5 a-b-c patterns.

  12. where do we close. 2730 2740 2750 ? Hmm

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