Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then reversal, DOW +39

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened at SPX 2640. The SPX had closed at 2656 on Monday, after a big rally. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2637, and then started to reverse and work its way higher. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2668, dipped to 2659 by 2:30, bounced to 2668 in the last hour of trading, and ended the day at 2663.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.45%. Bonds rose 6 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, then business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today as the volatility continued. A few minutes after the open, however, the market started to work its way back up instead of declining further. Short term sentiment changing, or just on pause? In the afternoon the market had closed the gap and turned positive on the day. Recent trading appears to be more balanced with larger lots and narrower daily price ranges. Should the market clear SPX 2673, in the coming days, Int. v may be underway. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day just below overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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259 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Last post tonight. Just as a FYI… in 2008, there was a brake of the 61.8% SHORT (just like I outlined in my posts tonight) by a number a ticks and then when some were expecting a 50% retrace LONG, the decline picked up speed to the downside and we all know what happened in 2008.

    • Asa, many wave 2 or B bounces (in a larger SPX/DOW Correction or early Bear market) break the 61.8. Common even to rally up to 70-78, and a few even hitting new ATH before failing. A breach of the 61.8 level activating a bullish higher-low BTFD opportunity is not really an odds-on larger swing setup under the current setup conditions. That could shift with more info and some significant changes, but for now it might be more like swimming upstream. Like you said for 2008–just one of many. Either way, it’ll be interesting to watch this one play out. Nice work on your posts of the past year.

    • tommyboys says:

      Dude 2008 was ENTIRELY diiferent than today! Interest rates were projected higher even while deflation was the “fear” of the day, Obummer was in office spending like a mad man with zero projected return and the A/D had already been diverging for months. All polar opposite today. You can’t look to some pattern and assume it will repeat. There are a thousand criteria to consider. Keep in fear though.

  2. Hey John Bell, are you buying yet? Don’t reply telling us you went long last Thursday!!

    From my cardboard box home I see a battle zone at ES2724 or so, double bottom break out level, although it’s a bit lopsided, we will see.

  3. Best I could do with my laptop in Aruba.

    BOTTOM LINE CHART…FOR ALL THE BEARS OUT THERE!!!!!! Per this algorithm, /ES is trading up against a 50% SHORT. If /ES/SPX is truly bearish, /ES has to stay below the 61.8% SHORT 2749. Above this level would confirm to me, that Intermediate wave iv is complete.


    • purplember says:

      asa that’s what i’m seeing. there really hasn’t been much of retrace to get long unless you can trade before regular trading hours

    • Hey Asa……..the one case where that would not be true, and I am inclined toward this point of view because of length of time is a large triangle……whipsawing both longs and shorts……..if true we could go quite abit above even 2749 and still be in wave iv. …just my 2 cents

      • Purplember, Doug, et. al. Currently ES is trading right up against a 50% SHORT. From a day traders perspective you have to wait to see if the 50% SHORT is defended or /ES continues to rally.



        • drwarmington says:

          Hi ASA, if this 50% short defends, will that be wave 1 and a 50% retrace from here for wave 2? Somewhere around 2620?

          • drwarmington…. Correct. I just posted a “bottom line” analysis. If the 61.8% SHORT breaks, I expect a pullback to 2630’s (the 50% LONG)…recently, the 38.1% has been the extent of the pullback. If the 38.1% pullback is defended, that would be extremely bullish. I will post a chart when I see either a defense of the SHORT or the break.

            • drwarmington says:

              Thanks ASA. Sounds like you are expecting this 50% short not to defend and go to 2749.

              • Yes, I believe Intermediate wave iv ended last week. HOWEVER, the break of the 61.8% SHORT has to break to confirm this analysis. I will let the market tell me it’s true intentions….I will trade either analysis.

          • drwarmington…NO! Sorry, I re-read your post. If the 50% SHORT defends, the higher probability is that on the retrace the 61.8% MICRO LONG, /ES will continue to decline because the short traded first. I would expect further declines and test last weeks lows.
            The wave 1 and 2 scenario only works if there is a break of the 61.8% SHORT first.

            This is of course a snap shot in time looking at the chart as on this afternoon’s close.

        • 123 abc says:

          is the following what you have in mind? doesn’t ‘feel’ right…

          • abc123…chart didn’t show up on my reply last night. Thinking something like this.. I am trying to take into consideration the algorithm trading at a 50% and 61.8% SHORT and a pullback of some magnitude could occur around either level. Thinking that if SPX started Intermediate wave v then the 61.8% SHORT should break first.

            • phil1247 says:

              hi asa
              dont like your third wave internals
              3 is shortest wave … a… no no…..
              its would be nice to meld DH and EW as you are trying to do
              but i like to try to use KISS principle
              DH works so well alone and EW is often ambiguous

              hey…. not so bad in Malloyville….
              50 degrees last night when i got home
              not aruba but not too bad for ct in feb

              our wives were probably saying the same thing…………..
              ” get off that computer and go outside !!! …..”.. LOL

  4. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  5. Good afternoon.
    Got out of my positions for a small profit this morning…sold, based upon the break of a 61.8% LONG on the CPI report. As I mentioned in 1 of my posts this morning, algorithms often ignore a spike up/down that is 100% news related. Today was no exception. Took the money and joined my wife on the beach.
    Chart below has all my notes on it. We are in extension longs if /ES 2683 is breached, it opens the door to lower targets. I have a second “BOTTOM LINE CHART” that I will try and post after this one.

  6. 123 abc says:

    happy valentine’s day to the women of oew ❤

  7. Obviously the markets overreacted to one month of hot inflation but yoy inflation was 1.8%, the same as November. While yields ticked higher, the market moved higher, with SPX missing its 50% retracement by 2 points. Historically, markets have followed yields higher until 10 yr yields reach 5%. But I think we are in a new paradigm and believe the tipping point will be lower……but I have no idea as to what that level might be. My studies suggest 10 yr yields will likely tag 3% and then move to 3.5%. So we have moving averages to deal with, retracement levels and many unknowns in rates, particularly the new tipping point. My guess is its in the 3.5% to 4.0% range.

  8. 162 point up in 3.5 days. We have entered elevator down and up.

  9. fionamargaret says:

    I hope you all know I want you to be my Valentine..xxx

    Now Bloomberg is on about bearish candles (and a flag)…does anybody see this?
    (maybe just good for our Valentine’s cake).

    John Murphy says we are on the verge of a major breakout in Gold…really…
    I hope Newbie bought NUGT…

  10. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  11. see if the 2700 level or .50 retrace of the 340 point decline at 2704 if not then then 2620 and odds increase every day towards the bulls

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Check out where the upper BB is on indices. The volatility is superb for bulls.

  13. blubrd67 says:

    UWT is behaving “properly” as I expected 😉
    Almost scared me this morning. They like to do the false breakdowns

  14. did algo fall a sleep for that 9 point pull back or are we going to have an afternoon sell off after the 50 point up from todays bottom
    Stay on your toes

  15. hohoho598 says:

    Volatility baby woo hoo

  16. wildmarkets says:

    SpaceX taking this market to Mars?

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Looks like money flooding back in to small caps. Risk on.

  18. filipozze says:

    in my opinion this is wave 2 of (3). you never know degree of trend before but i think it’s quite possible

  19. Haven’t posted in a long time. Avid reader though and appreciate the comments.
    Today is a head scratching day… Higher yields is what brought the correction in stocks…. yields (10year) shoot up to the 2.88 area trying to knock down the resistance for the 3rd time in the last 9 days… however today the stock market is up as well… Something has to give…

    • tommyboys says:

      2.88 is still historically (ridiculously) low. For almost a decade – and really close to two – we were suppose to be fearing DE-flation as oversupply and cheap labor was putting constant pressure on prices. Now we’re FINALLY getting a small bit of price and wage traction and we’re suppose to fear IN-flation! The media loves to stir the pot – it’s how THEY get paid thus will NEVER end. Truth is 2.5-3.5% CPI is awesome and pretty much the Fed target and mandate. Inflation is just the excuse de jour for a quick sharp & scary 11.8% correction when it was more than overdue. For more than a year all we heard was how the market hadn’t had a 5% PB and we should fear this. Now we get a fat 10%+ and we’re suppose to fear IT… SANITY NOW! We had an overdue technical correction – mostly on short volatility – which was more than overdue and completely normal. Greed/Fear REMAINS at 13 today -turn off the media and buy the fear!

  20. merovix says:

    Quite a tough point here, as we are also close to the ascending trend line from the minimum of August 21, 2017 (ES Mar 16′ 2018)…

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Some of my long positions got stopped out today. Dirty tricks.

  22. learnedmylesson25 says:

    GDX broke above 22.72 (10d)and 22.77 (20d)in one surge today.Once again just hittIng the lower bb on the weekly gold brought a rally (after a quick violation).Is this where GDX gets momentum to break through 25.60?I’ll add today.Pattern continues:Gold,equities and Bitcon all up.Now VIX below 20-another bullish confirmation.Good luck all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      VIX not going to be working properly for 4-6 weeks …according to Bloomberg.

      • torehund says:

        They may have problem rigging it 🙂

      • tommyboys says:

        Agree with Bloomberg on the VIX and posted it yesterday in response to another poster questioning March & April implied levels. Volatility blew up last week and was the reason for market drop. Will need to repair over the coming weeks. Wouldn’t put too much stock (no pun intended) in VIX levels for the nect few weeks.

  23. Page says:

    Today is good day to get out of long position, tomorrow markets will be hot red.

  24. tommyboys says:

    Another fake panic? VIX getting crushed. BTFD

    • mjtplayer says:

      Friday, after a pullback to DOW 24k

      • tommyboys says:

        Dunno – the way the Vix is getting crushed (beginning to normalize), staying long.

        • travis01 says:

          I know this isn’t the right terminology concerning vix but I don’t like the “price” action today. Seems broken and makes me think upside in SP. Sometimes you see market moves with little or no vix and it tells you what you need to know. Same when it goes nuts with small SP moves.

          • vivelaamo says:

            Corrections over buddy.

            • travis01 says:

              Viv you need to understand that moves are not straight up or straight down. This move was unusual, as was the last year which is the reason why this big correction was so swift and short. I got it that you were long last year – so was I. I’m not a doom and gloom guy either but 20 points SP is worth me making the right call and picking up $5k or more. I guarantee the market will not be the straight up buy and sell of the past 18 months in anytime soon. Buy and hold, you make what 5-10% before one swift pullback wipes out all gains. I’ll put a beer bet on multiple pullbacks of greater strength in the coming months even if the overall trend is up…and TC even calls for a medium term downturn. This isn’t 2017.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Multiple pullbacks are a good thing as the long as the main trend stays intact. I admit 2017 was bizarre in how small the pbs were.

                Hats off to those that can make big money on the moves down. I can’t spend enough time trading to be able time those moves correctly. They are too infrequent and end too quickly. That’s why I’m happy with the slow grinds up where I make the most money.

                All the best.

  25. fotis2 says:

    Stan911 nice work EUR pullback loaded more 122.3 level.Fiona still long Gold?That spike shakeout?no follow thru

  26. I’m starting to wonder if the move down to 2532 is part of a larger formation like a large triangle. It looks like a flat since Monday’s highs and aren’t flats unusual for a wave 2?

  27. phil1247 says:



    didnt trust that extension !
    thats why i dont hold overnite
    potential support at 2586

    • travis01 says:

      I went re-short AH but not expecting the rate issue so maybe my ext thoughts were wrong and just got lucky. Shall see…looking for same down moves 2636, 2600, 2584

    • quickrick38 says:

      Ditto that Phil…yesterday’s action (or lack thereof) made me really jittery…I got out of everything…thank you Jesus !

    • yep, see my post earlier this morning. Here’s how I am trying to play this without getting divorced….the 61.8% long broke. Expect a 20 point rally to the NEW 50% SHORT. Will get out there if it is defended. Now the problem is how do I get off the beach to sell?…LOL

      Best case scenario the FOMC and the big boys spin this as the positive news that the economy is growing and the FOMC plans to raise rates in March and 3X this year and that should contain inflation expectations. stocks close green on the day and DH will say it was a new driven sloppy trading and the algos are going to ignore. That is what Yellen probably would have hinted at in Fedspeak. With unknown and untested Powell, he just may stay silent…..and that is troubling…think uncertainty.

  28. So, next few days should be interesting I would think. The drop fro 2872-2532 (340) points was quick and somewhat unexpected. Is it over? Everyone has there opinion, that’s what makes a market. I see a few statistics that show after such a quick drop a week later it’s typicaly down another 2.2 percent. Typing this I see futures just tanked. Anyway, I shorted yesterday at 2665 said I’m either going to win big or loose big. So far so good. Needs to break 2637, then 2593 then swoosh. I’m expecting 2470 area if that fails 2300 area.
    On the upside My levels to watch to the upside are the .dh 2686: the .50 retrace of the 340 point decline 2702 and over 2742 I’d say wave 4 is over. I see us in major 4. When done major 5 up to end it all.
    Safe trading going to be a crazy day

    • Bullish count in my opinion, is the move to 2668 is minor 1. Minor 2 underway.
      Minor 1 was 136 points.
      .50 retrace is 2600
      .618 retrace is 2584

      I had said below 2593 swoosh actually below 2584 swoosh.if 2584 holds thru the close of Monday, I will turn bullish.

  29. pooch77 says:

    Dropping like a rock down 500+ from last night highs

    • Jack kendo says:

      market should found support at this morning CPI reaction low, and should comfortably clear SPX 2673 in the days ahead. took profits and position accordingly.

  30. quickrick38 says:

    Well, it seems all that choppiness yesterday did serve a purpose…it’s showing us that we are now running in a relatively narrow channel. Clearer in the ES but it’s there in the SPX also.

  31. phil1247 says:

    Happy Valentines Day Tony !

    have a great day everyone ………..
    see ya!

  32. tommyboys says:

    Way to stay long Vive. ES busted 2677 an hour ago. That Morning Star bottom was close enough for government work.

  33. quickrick38 says:

    Happy Valentine’s Day!

    I was not liking what Silver did yesterday, so I got out. Probably a good thing because Silver is NOT looking good this morning. Taking a wait and see approach.

  34. fotis2 says:

    Happy Valentines to the Ladies on site.
    USD/JPY just broke some serious support overnight can’t see much support till all the way to the 101 level coinciding with the lower BB on the monthly.Only stick save seems to be the line in the sand for the HWB 61.8 sitting at the 106.30 level.


    • fionamargaret says:

      Thank you Fotis x

      Rhodesian Ridgebacks are awesome dogs, but crossed with a bull terrier I am sure pretty tough.
      I had a fawn Great Dane (rescued from a packing crate), but totally beautiful. I used to take him to work with me. Their background suggests they hunted wild boar, but he was fond of watching old movies with me….x

      • dad1 says:

        We have a Rhodesian R rescue. Very friendly and trainable but she is from TN and we are in Boston. Hates the cold and has no use for snow.

  35. fionamargaret says:

  36. fionamargaret says:

  37. learnedmylesson25 says:

    SHOCKING!!! (not)
    Gold bouncing with equities,continues the trend.BTC not playing along,but not selling off too bad.HYG stays short term bullish.Later all.

    • Learned,

      Is today’s move in PMs the real deal?

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Just saw your question.After today(2/14)it looks like another attempt is coming to clear 25-26 on GDX.Now above 10 and 20d ema,so I automatically add more when that happens.The REAL deal is if it clears 26.

  38. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  39. 123 abc says:

    Don’t see any signs of wave extensions yet.

    Simply see one wave up from the 2532.69 low to 2672.61 high. Currently labelled that wave as a Minute degree wave, but suspect it may actually be upgraded to a Minor degree wave given the large price size swings. If the current pullback takes out the 2632 pivot range entirely, then would be inclined to label it as a Minor-2 pullback.

    If 2673 is taken out to the upside, then the analysis would suggest a third wave is underway. And if so, would expect the third wave to target the 2731 pivot where it may rest for breather and begins to subdivide higher. Its open country between 2656 and 2731 pivots, no resistance and so perfect for third wave territory. Guesswork of course!

  40. Hi phil, vive, and all
    Random Thoughts….

    Got into this rally “late”, all my trades are green and don’t want to overstay my welcome. Thinking that today’s close or tomorrow morning could be the completion of wave 1 of unknown degree. If wave 2 corrects 50% of wave 1, I’d rather be in cash. Should have sold at the close of today but decided to give it one more morning. Per DH chart below…./ES should trade to 2675.35, the first of 2 profit targets (dotted green line). Tomorrow is FOMC day and the first for Chairman Powell.
    Not interested in stops on FOMC days…risk is high that you can lose all your unrealized gains (depending upon your average fill price…..for me late in the rally). Also, have abc123 analysis in the back of my mind as well.

    Finally, can’t r/o wave “C” of intermediate wave iv tomorrow afternoon if the big boys don’t like what Powell’s FOMC statement suggests. Breaking /ES 2634 tommorrrow following the FOMC would increase the probabiity that wave “C” of intermediate wave iv is still alive.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks for this. I’m long but a lot more vigilant after last week. If we see signs of a C wave I’m just looking to get out rather than short.

      All the best.

    • purplember says:

      Asa / Phil DH had post that is very negative for ES. potentially big bear market. usually bearish or sees something in technicals ?

      • fionamargaret says:

        …not asa or Phil, and they will be able to tell you what is on DH’s mind….I just know the market veterans suggest you don’t buy after a big wave down as that is usually tested again.
        There was a problem in a structured product (VIX), which had reverberations.
        This time there is a possible problem with bonds extending into the financial sector (oversize short positions I believe)
        Wait and see what Phil and Asa say….or anybody else…be careful Purple.x

      • DH discusses fractals in his analysis as to what could happen in the future. It’s the old adage, “history may not rhyme but it often repeats itself”. HOWEVER, DH relies 100% of the time on Fibonacci retracements for his investment decisions not fractals. Before DH would attempt to sell futures (short the market), he would want to wait until a 61.8% long was broken….. “let the market tell me it true intentions”.

        • phil1247 says:

          hey asa ……….. the last line is the key

          people like to tell the market what to do
          they have a preconceived notion that it must do their bidding
          they will have to be punished severely

          probably something big today …
          but i wont be able to play………….
          see ya tomorrow and good luck…….

          • chrisk44342 says:

            Phil, usually true, but not always. I have zero preference either way, and that kind of objectivity is hard earned 🙂

          • CPI RED HOT
            Like I said yesterday afternoon, I was concerned about over staying my welcome. If I were home instead of on the beach in Aruba I would have sold. Lets see what the FOMC and the big boys decide to do today. If this decline continues in morning trading perhaps this is a wave 4 of some degree.

  41. Thanks Tony. Have you had time to establish any smaller time frame counts?

    Understanding every correction has its own personality, Wells notes the average correction is a drop of 13.4% (median of 12.1%) and takes 108 days (median of 83) to move from the peak to the trough. The decline from the current peak has already extended beyond the median. If you take the peak of the current correction as being the May 21, 2015, high of $2,130.82 on the S&P 500 Index, then we are 95 days from the peak and into the correction zone.

    What about the advance after the correction? The average gain is 47.0% (median of 32.4%). The average duration (from trough to next peak) is 495 days (median of 289 days). Advances are longer and more powerful than corrections. Maybe that can help inform how you should react during a correction: Sometimes doing nothing makes more sense than throwing in the towel.

    This was written in August, 2015 so any use of the word current must be taken in that context

  42. 123 abc says:

    Tony Tuesdays and Tony Thursdays are my favorite days of the week; great guidance, much appreciated. 🙂

    • Hi abc123…Great work…I follow but never replied to your analyses. Question, any chance that wave 3 of wave 1, is extending? If so, would your analysis suggest that 2675 and 2685 are reasonable targets?

  43. TY Tony. Question for anyone >> slow volume that occurs in a triangle.<< Do triangles [up or down] usually occur with slow volume?

  44. aahmichael says:

    Tony, you have Primary wave II labeled from 2135-1810. That’s a total of 325 points. Now we’ve just had a decline of 340 points that you’re saying might be intermediate iv. How is it possible that an intermediate wave is larger than a primary wave? Doesn’t that violate the fundamental EW premise of degrees? Thanks.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Something similar was discussed on Trader Joes blog. Shouldn’t degrees be measured in percentage terms rather than points?

      Also what about timing? How does an Int wave end in weeks when even corrective waves of less degree took longer? Is timing not used in OEW?

      Thanks Tony.

      • aahmichael says:

        Neely’s book describes how to determine if and when two adjacent waves are of the same degree, but he doesn’t mention anything about the question I asked.

    • lunker1 says:

      Points are only relative to current price. Percentage change the accurate measure

      • aahmichael says:

        Is that something you’re just making up, or it that something that was written by either Elliott, or Prechter, or Neely? Thanks.

        • blackjak100 says:

          He’s making it up, but I agree with lunker. I don’t think anything was clarified with degrees by Elliott or prechter.

        • lunker1 says:

          I’m relating to OEW not to those EW guys. For years Tony’s OEW charts have shown the percentages of the corrections

        • lunker1 says:

          And it’s just common sense. A percentage measurement of a correction allows you to relate current action to what happened decades ago

        • micky says:

          The question is, who’s method of counting has been superior between them and Tony?

          • phil1247 says:

            Prechter … was spot on about the 1987 crash
            but after that he was not objective and had a negative bias
            trying to fit the market into his deflation / depression scenario
            ie …..as i posted earlier
            he wanted to make the market do his bidding
            and he was punished severely for it

            i abandoned him when he called every 3 wave decline off a top
            saying it was 5 waves down and the start of the plunge into the abyss
            but the market defied him

            DH method is far superior to guessing where you are with EW
            especially if the person counting waves has a bias or agenda

        • EL MATADOR says:

          Aah –

          Both Elliott and Prechter briefly discuss the need to shift from an arithmetic scale to a log scale. I do not recall the extent of the context but i do recall that the log scale is used when looking at a few years or more and typically when you are using weekly and monthly charts. IMO, from a log scale assessment, the probability that we are still in the same bull market that commence in 2009 and that the bull run still has more room to run after this correction should remain on the table…….just my 2c

          • aahmichael says:

            Thanks Mat. Using percentages when measuring retracements does make sense.

            • fionamargaret says:

              Michael, I asked Jeffrey your question, and he replied by having his daily update mentioning it…..now if I could just find that RJ…
              If you would like to send me the question for Jeffrey again….thanks x

    • Philippe V says:

      I do agree with you, it is quite puzzling as even measured in % terms some waves of much lesser degree travel farther than others of higher degree. Then again, waves of lower degree do also last much longer than others of higher degree. Makes you wonder if the degree of a wave has actually any relevance! But that’s the mystery of OEW, you have to have unquestionable faith in both the method and in its wizard.
      Always appreciate your comments btw.

  45. Lee X says:

    Thanks T C

Comments are closed.