Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2810. After a flat opening on Monday the market rallied, rallied again on Tuesday, then hit a temporary all-time high on Wednesday morning at SPX 2853. The market then pulled back into Wednesday afternoon to SPX 2825. Then after gap up openings on Thursday and Friday the market closed at SPX 2873. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.55%. On the economic front declining reports outpaced increases. On the downtick: existing/new home sales, Q4 GDP, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: leading indicators and durable goods. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting and non-farm Payrolls.

LONG TERM: uptrend

The relentless rally continues. The last time the market had a downtrend was in March/April. Since then the market has experienced one solid 9-month uptrend, with pullbacks of 3% of less along the way. In fact, when reviewing the weekly chart, this uptrend looks entirely different than any other uptrend since 2009. Something new began after the February 2016 low, which fits with our Secular Primary III bull market scenario.

The wave count remains unchanged. Major wave 1 of Primary III began at the February 2016 low. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Intermediate iii then divided into Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 has been under since the April 2017 low at SPX 2329. When Minor 5 ends, so too does Int. iii. Then after a short, and probably small, Int. iv correction, Int. v will take the market to new highs again.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current uptrend, Minor 5, is only few days away from entering its 10th month. No uptrend has been this long since the mid 1980’s. Naturally this Minor wave is dividing into five Minute waves. Minute waves i and ii ended in June/July, Minute waves iii and iv ended in November, and Minute wave v has been underway since then.

While we did not have too much trouble tracking Minute waves i thru iv. Minute wave v has been a bit difficult due to its relentless rise and small pullbacks. Very few short term waves have been quantified using our technique. This allows for a number of potential short term counts. Nevertheless we present one below which we have been tracking for a couple of weeks. Medium term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, with resistance at the 2884 pivot.

SHORT TERM

We can now count 17 waves up from the Minute iv SPX 2557 low in November. The first 11 waves can be quantified, the next six waves cannot. The most obvious count under this scenario is a five Micro wave advance underway, with Micro waves 1 and 2 ending at SPX 2665 and 2625 in early December. Since then Micro wave 3 has been underway: 2672-2652-2695-2674-2759-2736-2808-2769-2853-2825-2873 so far. Eleven waves, suggesting a pullback then new highs to make thirteen waves, and possibly end Micro 3. In other words, still no signs of an uptrend top yet.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, with resistance at the 2884 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week with a potential negative divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher and gained 1.2%.

European markets were mostly higher but gained only 0.1%.

The DJ World index gained 2.0%, and the NYSE gained 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.5%.

Gold also remains in an uptrend and gained 1.4%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 1.6% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: personal income/spending and the CPI at 8:30. Tuesday: Case-Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday: the ADP, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and FOMC statement. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, ISM, construction spending and auto sales. Friday: monthly payrolls, consumer sentiment, and factory orders.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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243 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Theodore Lerts says:

    Elliott Wave is my preferred trading method. But it still surprises me when even the most trusted EW practioners get caught up in market pessimism and/or euphoria.

  2. amittsite says:

    Namastey Tony..hope you are recovered well in health and spirit..
    Namastey Everyone..
    It appears last 5 waves to complete int 3 on S&P500 will be ending diagonal …and we are in wave 4 of that ED at today’s decline..5th can be 61 percent of 3rd wave..optically it will look nice..
    Thanks for being there..

  3. fionamargaret says:

    …remember everything above 2609 is superfluous…if you believe in the mathematics of the market.

    • Gregory Ewanizky says:

      Could you elaborate Fiona thank you

      • fionamargaret says:

        I used progressions from the low, and 2185 was suggested as a possible termination point.
        Well, we know that the market continued higher so 2185 was expanded upon, with the updated data as it came in and the termination point for this updated series is 2609.
        Since the market still continued higher one would think the number would have changed, but it has remained the same.
        Now I would think (a) eventually the number will suggest higher as previously, or (b) we correct back to 2609 and let the market decide the direction, whereupon the sequences will give a different suggestion….hope this helps….Tony usually gives the translation of the wave counts in sequences which you can use….

        Noting your surname Gregory, I was just hoping you did not want me to expand on laser initiation and beam quality’s evolution in a confocal unstable resonator….

        • hooloo1957 says:

          Wow Fiona. You’re referring to my father who was a research physicist for the dod and did a lot of work with lasers. Wow what do you do?

  4. phil1247 says:

    gary 35 should not be traded above before 2810 is hit now or i am out

  5. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  6. fotis2 says:

    ”Spoofing” new word for me.
    Separately UBS, HSBC and Deutsche Bank will pay a total of $46.6m (£33m) to settle spoofing charges against them.Spoofing refers to submitting, then cancelling, orders on futures contracts to manipulate the quoted price.

  7. phil1247 says:

    forget stocks………….

    what i want to see is the matchup between

    LEE.. (aka BIG DEAL) vs THE BIG SHOW

    • torehund says:

      The last shall be the first, go Newbee🏅1,24 mat be too touch for the euro, downside likely for the euro. Watch out rates big bang is near If weekly bull cross happens in tbt.

      • phil1247 says:

        Tore
        TBT .. bullish above 36.66666666666666666666666666
        but i would like to sell into next spike
        next bond target is only ticks away

  8. Edwardo says:

    FYI and FWIW 1/26/18 was a Fibonacci 2584 days from 10/11/2007

  9. Edwardo says:

    FWIW and FYI 1/26/18 was a Fibonacci 2584 days from the 10/11/2007 high.

  10. my 2 cents, looking for 2812 then 2920.

    Good luck all

  11. learnedmylesson25 says:


    “Is everybody in?The ceremony is about to begin.”
    I couldn’t resist.Can anyone “name that tune”from that lyric?
    S&P breaks 2805,then down to 2775,but it’s all up to PPT.
    Gold feeble–GDX worse.When Avi gives these downside support levels,they almost always get tested and broken.Forewarned.22.50 to 23 for those that missed it.Later.

  12. H D says:

    “Eleven waves, suggesting a pullback”
    2872 – (55)
    Only took a $2 hit in CL for the widowmaker to destroy sentiment?

  13. gary61b says:

    Phil, HWB on the 2760 anchor looking for 2906.

  14. lunker1 says:

    Tony confirmed Nano 3 on chart

  15. phil1247 says:

    DOW wedge with throwover and kiss good bye retest
    targets 1000 point drop from high

  16. mcgcapital says:

    Switched long on the FTSE but want to see 7600 pivot area hold. Under there there’s still plenty of support but the buy set up has gone for me

  17. lunker1 says:

    The past two largest pullbacks were 39 and 40 points. From 2873 that’s 2833 and Tony’s 2835 pivot (down to 2828). The North Korean Russian tanker refueling flash crash was down 52. That’s 2821. Wednesday’s low was 2825 and close 2837. So if 2833 gives way could see a dip to the low to mid 20s (highly oversold) and if then a close above 2835 then price supports are potentially holding

    • lunker1 says:

      And FYI to talk about it ahead of time instead of your “heavy duty” buddy I told you so-ing after the fact es 2878.5 – (55) = 2823.5 which is also hwb 2823.88 to the 2769.25 low from the 16th

      • lunker1 says:

        last guess. es they ran the overnight stops 31.5 down to 29 in now maybe run the stops at 45.75 up to 48 before taking it down to 23/24

      • lunker1 says:

        interesting VIX is still contained instead of a big spike. would seem to indicate the price move is more normal and healthy versus unexpected and panic

  18. phil1247 says:

    gary

    that last sloppy extension was a warning that the bulls had lost their mojo
    thats why i didnt want to buy yesterday
    “”Potential”” support at 2835 es has failed and is retesting
    i am happy with my 2875 exit and see no reason to rebuy yet

    lets try this again………………..
    Potential support ( if 2835 fails retest ) is at 2767

    • gary61b says:

      Ok Phil I see that, when would you remove the 2698 anchor from your charts?

      • phil1247 says:

        we have a series of shorts from highs now
        when the series breaks a full retracement can happen
        there is no support anywhere
        until the short from highs breaks and a long from lows supports

        ie top is in until proven otherwise
        so all longs from any anchor are suspect now

        • phil1247 says:

          2825 es target is next ……… with extension short in force

          • phil1247 says:

            bada BING!………… target hit !

            • travis01 says:

              My next down target is around 2770 if 2825 is taken. Any clue if correct or another support around 2800? Might lighten up here…bought a crapload of uvxy around 10.60 & 8.90 and got more out of it than I expected but not to get slaughtered.

  19. NEWBIE says:

    Anybody trade natural gas in here? If so, any thoughts on directions?

  20. vipulm555 says:

    State of union speech tonite market likes Trumph and should be making new high as he speaks

    Buy the dip

    SmartZ!

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie get out the way!!

  22. vivelaamo says:

    Bears will crash and burn soon. Hope they have taken the money and ran otherwise It’s going to be a bear bloodbath. Won’t be pretty.

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Weak longs will be taken out and shorts trapped. Probably best to wait for the hammer candle now. Moves are pretty volatile.

  24. B Seagle says:

  25. fotis2 says:

    Oil try again DT on 4hour entry here stop 66 target 62.7

  26. hohoho598 says:

    Nice just picked up some at 35, tiiiiight stop.

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