Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open and new highs, DOW -4

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher but gained only 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 2 points above yesterday’s SPX 2833 record close. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2839, then dipped to 2831 by 10am. Another rally pushed the SPX to 2842 by 11am. Then the market went into a trading range and ended the day at SPX 2839.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude rose $1.20, Gold added $, and the USD broke 90. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am.

After yesterday’s big rally SPX: 2810-2833, the market opened at 2835 and then made an all time high at 2839. After a small pullback the market rallied to another new high at SPX 2842. Relentless uptrend. The SPX has gained 22% just during this uptrend alone. The short term count remains unchanged Micro waves: 2665-2625-2842 so far. Still waiting for Micro 3 to complete. Then a Micro 4 down and Micro 5 up to end this lengthy uptrend. Short term support is at the 2835 and 2790 pivots, with resistance at the 2858 and 2884 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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195 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    kvilia … RE .. GOLD

    gc pushed thru 1356 target so im still long UGOLD
    new extension long .618 support is at 1353…
    .. the 1355 support bounced at 3:30 am
    1370 next target ………….

  2. torehund says:

    Remember Tonys China special report, think a cup and handle is about to form, looks good🏆

  3. phil1247 says:

    lunker

    the bullish above 2833 we talked about last nite just hit target at 2850

  4. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Taken 1/2 off my HSCEI long. Index is up 15% plus already this year which is a bit silly. Still short some S&P. Will buy some ftse soon for a trade.

  5. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proprietary Technicals Model has been up for the 46th day in a row, the longest streak since I started calculations in 2006. Major market momentum at play here!

    As of Friday Jan 5th both of my swing trade signals are BULLISH, yes much much too late this time.

    HYG:IEF has broken last major peak, on March 1st 2017. But it doing so has made significant negative divergences. If it can gain momentum, then it can break these divergences, but its a red flag as of right now. This is a very significant chart to follow!

    SPX daily hit All Time Highs today. Negative divergences are in place for 4 of 5 indicators since the middle of the month, indicating it will require a retracement lower soon. Countless Hindenburg Omens have occurred since this past summer. Still feel its likely that the next top will be a SIGNIFICANT TOP. At the All Time Highs, SPX hourly shows negative divergences back to late November for many indicators, therefore I am expecting SPX to turn lower soon.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 46th day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1’s peak vs. SPX, foretelling of this bullish run. On 11/30 it fell just short of making a Technicals Thrust. The Cumulative version of the Technicals Model made a new All Time High 1/24. My statistically driven Volatility Model is expanding.

    VIX finished higher, on a hourly MACD BUY signal. but there were no negative divergences at this time-frame to give indication that the reversal will last long. Zooming in to the 15-min chart, there was only 1 negative divergence, so its more likey than not that VIX will find a footing and venture higher in due time.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators, were mixed today. Many of these are in positive territory, yet are well off peaks from last year. SPX A-D line made a new All Time High on 1/24, obviously above its 20 dma which is rising. SPX McClellan has been positive for the 16th day in a row.

  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    One gold “expert” I check in on,mentioned there was huge volume today on the move today.I hardly ever check volume myself.
    Now Ira was very cautious.GLD is embedded.GDX and gold are not.
    I look at this PM rally as a series of various attempts,by this group to recoup past losses and test 25.60 and then 2016’s high.
    Dollar is close to its PO for the H&S
    breakdown.

    • Fiona, thanks for your valued input. esp re gold. I am about to use NUGT, JNUG & AGQ. You remind me of Connie Brown, great author on all aspects of TA, now ahorsewoman in KY.

      • fionamargaret says:

        So nice to hear from you David and wish you well in the market.
        I have been waiting for gold to make its move up to 1600…moves are not just for B.C.
        Yes, I am interested in bloodlines, though as you probably know, striving for perfection like most things worthwhile in life, has a way of making us humble. A good eye for horses and the market is based on symmetry and magic….x

  7. stockop says:

    took my money and ran in Gold. still in some of the miners, but less than 75% of what I was. can’t explain it other than i needed to take the money and run. had some ok gains and did not want to see them disappear. hope it wasn’t a mistake…

    closed uvxy calls for a small gain, ditched that too. may be willing to take another try depending on the action in the near future. as of now tho I really don’t feel like i have any sense of the market right now. long or short.

    that 10 year… think it may actually breakdown (up?) even with the crazy bearishness going on. the Fed has been unloading for months now…

    still very long and leveraged some nat gas stock(s), but I got lucky and pretty much bottom ticked the position and pyramided correctly…no feeling like i had in gold…geez i hope i don’t get that, even breaking even would suck at this point in natty.

    • allen kimble says:

      A profit is a profit Congrats! But I’m afraid you will now miss out on the true breakout over $1400 in February. $1430-$1440 by End of February is the target based on some Fib levels. It’s coming and should be an eye opener to the world to what is coming down the pike for the US Stock market once this Bubble Pops. The DOW will get to 38,000 to 40,000 by 2019 if not sooner. The great central bank Bubble is here. Enjoy!!!

      Again congrats! You will have a chance to get back into Gold next Monday or Tuesday.
      ohh and I’m Glad you kept some miners. Their best time of the year is the first two weeks of February.

      Very busy these days….gotta go…I wish I could be on here more.

      • hohoho598 says:

        Wondered where you got to AK, enjoyed your posts. I can see what you mean by everything is looking up, and so is inflation. PPL will feel fat and comfortable with their 401k’s looking good, but it will soon cost more and more to buy milk and a loaf of bread, then watch the liquidity dry up. Gold will shine again. Best.

        • allen kimble says:

          One last thing about Gold, miners and the stock market. It is my belief that Gold, Miners, Silver to a lesser extent(at first) are being accumulated by savvy investors that see what is coming and they are preparing for it by allocation bit by bit. The Sector where the money will flow into right before after the stock market Bubble has popped will be Gold and much more so the miners as they offer much more liquidity. As of now everything it’s going up together.

          Having said the above, it would be absolutely insane and foolish to sell the SPX,DOW and the NAZ right now or short. In fact it would be wise to go on leverage on the next tiny pullback. We are in the beginning stages of a blow-off top. I’ve been doing this for over 30 plus years and it’s so obvious the stock market is in a bubble it’s just so clear. You won’t hear anybody talk about it but behind closed doors they are preparing and even profiting from this last stage.

          Cheers,

      • stockop says:

        fantastic response, much appreciated. interesting fact about the first two weeks of february. gonna keep that in the memory banks. recent losses definitely could have made me make a bad play, wouldn’t be the first time… especially considering how bullish I’ve been. looking like the pump is on after hours to boot…guess i will just add to the miners i still hold. once upon a time this feeling did work out…

        sounds like we are on the same page on the markets minus 2019 or sooner… i think you underestimate just what kind of things people are currently doing leverage wise…and i think the central bubble popped when the fed started selling bonds. doesn’t mean the markets have adjusted, or that the fed wont start the engines up one more time in another bear market…

      • fotis2 says:

        Glad you back buddy looking forward to more comments.

  8. lunker1 says:

    anyone take the .618 short at es 44?

  9. phil1247 says:

    Lee……….
    got ya one ding on CL already
    you might have to wait till tomorrow for the second one
    are you trading CL now ?

  10. H D says:

    From the 2016 low the $DJI has rallied almost exactly 10,946 and the market appears to respected that Fibonacci sequence as well.

    • fionamargaret says:

      The number that I think will prove to be important is 2609…that was the progression from 2185…and 2609 has not changed in its suggestion for $SPX. Everything higher than that is superfluous to the suggested outcome.

  11. H D says:

    I heard swooshing again. not under 26.50, as advertised, but from mr. Fibonacci. 28(55) ES.

  12. mcgcapital says:

    Out of FTSE shorts at 7630.. oversold on most timeframes so looking for a ramp back to 7670-90 area then back down to 7600. Probably bounce around here for a week or two then back up

  13. 2860-2863 next target before micro 4 starts.
    Gotto go to Pittsburgh and freeeze my ass off. Being an AZ boy not used to those cold temps. See you all next week

  14. I just covered my short from 2851 i will take 23 sp point and call it a day. Still expect to rally to 2860 to end micro 3.

    Good luck all

  15. gary61b says:

    maybe by the close we will be oversold and have completed micro iv…. 1 day corrections are the best 2 is serious..lol

  16. lunker1 says:

    2829 and still not oversold yet

  17. phil1247 says:

    es
    potential support at 32 .. then 26
    then swwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwoooooooooooooooooosh

  18. H D says:

    Tony, just an observation but in PI the dollar rallied w SPX (72-100) and now this rally from the 2016 low it appear dollar is not rallying w SPX (100-89). Any significance?

    • makiori says:

      HD, If I may, given that you have asked Tony.
      During P1 the USA embarked on QE exercises before other CBs hence the $ rallied as expectations mounted on QE exercises from other CBs to follow (lower rates on other currencies). During P3 and, most noticeably with the latest acceleration, the reverse is holding true, whereby other CBs are expected to exit somewhat their QE exercises soon (higher rates on other currencies). This is a very crude explanation and timing of appreciation and depreciation does not necessarily matches the start/end of P waves.
      A much more technical explanation that confirms the above crude description was recently published in a study by Bofa and showed the correlation of the Euro/$ exchange rate with the differential on the spread of the 2y 2y fw interest rate swap, if you are familiar with those type of metrics.
      I hope it helps

  19. learnedmylesson25 says:

    This stuff is insane.Massive move in the dollar–and gold/GdX do what they’re supposed to.Now Gdx fades 20 cents and gold stalls too.Looks like the Nasdaq correction Katie Stockton was looking for might be starting.Maybe GdX IS linking up with equities.Later,to survey the damage.

  20. lunker1 says:

    guessing micro 4 down to 2769-2808 area and then micro 5 (Int 3) 2858-2900.

    • you may be right, but i only see 3 waves up from Micro 2 2807-2793-2853.
      So im expecting 2820-2830 for a 4 then 38 points higher from where ever we stop for micro 3.
      Just reiterating my 2 cents

      • lunker1 says:

        Tonys green tentative 3 for micro 3 means the qualifications have already been met for it and will be confirmed when micro 4 qualifications are met

  21. my latest attempt to count this monster.
    2853 area ended or will end nano 3
    2830 nano 4
    2868 ends micro 3 Micro 3 will have been 247 points a .23 retrace is 56 points

    so micro 4 is down to 2812 and micro 5 equals 1 at 2920. which will make int 3 920 points. a .23 retrace is 211 points a .318 retrace is 292. So target for Int 4 is 2628-2709.
    All i got. good luck

  22. phil1247 says:

    Lee..
    CL 65.80 then 66.30

  23. vivelaamo says:

    It’s funny how you can leave this blog and come back at any time and the same posters are calling tops. Regardless of what has happened in the past.

    What did Einstein say about insanity?

  24. vivelaamo says:

    I’m back home and adding to Dow longs. Will keep adding until 30000 in 2018. Then call it a day.

    • Lee X says:

      There’s no place like home , those hospitals will kill ya !

      • vivelaamo says:

        Amen to that. Although I miss the sponge baths. (Joke).

      • kjb0 says:

        That’s no joke Lee, the hospitals will literally kill you. You must watch them like a hawk and question everything. I know many people who went in with no life threatening illness and came out dead. That is why they call it “practicing” medicine. My wife was an RN for 35 years and nobody talks about the fatal mistakes made in the hospital system. Even one mistake is one to many.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Well at least it’s free here in the UK. But I have to admit after last weeks experience I’m taking private health insurance and advising others to do so.

  25. lunker1 says:

    entered 2858 pivot range 2751+ w -D
    moved stops up tight
    not interested in riding back down to 2835 pivot

  26. phil1247 says:

    gary ……

    … added more
    bull above 48

  27. kvilia says:

    Phil, markets are up and VIX is up. What does it tell you? Highly doubt any micros are going to be in play – this is the top before 200-300 pts drop.
    I wish I bought NUGT two days ago, hope for it to retrace. This thing is finally gonna fly.
    Highly doubt any micros

  28. mcgcapital says:

    Come on America, get selling.. FTSE shorts looking good but it’s still holding on above 7690 really need SPX to have a breather for that to break or no doubt they will ramp it back up again. Getting ready to cover again if this doesn’t break this afternoon

  29. phil1247 says:

    Tore

    get ready to take profits on TBT as bonds crash down to target today
    i have TTT ………. triple short bonds …..
    ….. ready to take profits at target

  30. phil1247 says:

    gary .. got back late .. AH back in at 39
    targets at 49 and 50 about to hit
    finger on sell
    with two triangles in view we could be at the end of the line for now
    but DH will lead the way ..
    if we go thru .. i will hold and possibly add more
    now that everyone is foaming .. i am getting worried

  31. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony
    It was a great run

    • H D says:

      Nice. What’s up amigo?

      Very interesting comment before the bell today! was*

      • Lee X says:

        Hey H D
        Staying out of trouble and wishing for longer days .

        Haha you caught that eh ?
        What a run , glad I wasn’t making anyone a market !

  32. Gary, here comes your 2850 ish. Should reverse from there down to 2820 before resuming higher.
    Micro 1 was 108 points. If this ends micro 3 possible to reach 2929 if 2820 ends micro 4. Good luck all

  33. Theodore Lerts says:

    First time poster, longtime lurker.

    Higher probability is that midterm uptrend is over. 2840.25 can contain strength through
    February, below which 2775.00 is now attainable over the next 1-2 weeks. Cheers.

  34. learnedmylesson25 says:

    I’ve been watching the dollar continue to lose ground tonight.Dollar/yen breaking 110,yet gold only up $3.Why?I mentioned Ira’s 1343 level as important for the next leg up.With currencies VERY favorable tonight (so far),gold should be up $20.Because it’s not–be careful if Usd/Jpy reverses.Gold should rally,but we’ll see if it does what it should.Good night all.

  35. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • fionamargaret says:

      The message from John Murphy tonight reads…..
      “Gold continues to strengthen as part of a bottoming formation lasting the last 4 years.
      ($BCOM) commodities are trading at the highest level in 11 months and are already moving above a resistance line drawn over its mid 2016 / early 2017 high. A close above constitutes a breakout.”
      So all my ranting about gold still to make its 3 wave, and the miners having the potential to more than double may not be complete madness…..

      How are we doing my old girl asked as I was taking her out during the night. “Pro bono” I replied as she settled back down, letting her breath out slowly then settling her head into the pillow. She grunted contentedly. Surely working for bones was the most excellent idea in the world….x

  36. B Seagle says:

  37. purplember says:

    thanks Tony. i pray your feeling well

  38. Gregg Thompson says:

    Thanks Tony!

  39. last comment for 1/23…couldn’t help but notice – SP has come a long way from the 2009 lows…

  40. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DAX at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  41. xpto31 says:

    Does anyone know how much / usually could a wave int Iv correct ( price and time)Thanks in advance

  42. lunker1 says:

    Thanks for everything Tony

  43. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    any chance that dow is still in micro 3? …
    extensions of extensions suggest a 3 and not a 5

    also .. you have i and ii on either side of 34 ema on daily chart
    you have micro 1 and micro 2 on either side of 34 ema
    but you have micro 3 and micro 4 on the same side of 34 ema
    that is why i think this is still all micro 3
    any possibility i could be correct?

  44. Look at CGG, is that great price, or do I need to go back to school

  45. xpto31 says:

    Tony, when micro 5end, end int iii ? Thanks

  46. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony.

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