Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then decline, DOW -10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED index was reported lower. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2802, and continued on to 2808 by 10am. After that, a pullback began. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2791, bounded to 2797 by 11:30, then headed even lower. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2769. Then after a rally to SPX 2782 by 3:30 the market closed at 2776.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Tomorrow: industrial production at 9:15, the homebuilders index at 10am, and then the Beige book at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied some 20+ points, and made a new high at SPX 2808. At the highs, not only did the SPX cross 2800 for the first time. The DOW crossed 26000, the NAZ crossed 7300, and the SPX was now up nearly 1000 points from the SPX 1810 bear market low in February 2016. Apparently traders were waiting for some or all of these events, as the market responded to those new highs by pulling back. The pullback gathered more sellers the lower it went. Until after declining nearly 40 points the market rebounded. No change in the counts. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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186 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…thank you for your consistant, week after week. Of charting the SP500.
    Stay healthy, and warm. It is winter in Illinois…


  2. Billy says:

    When it comes to changes in the earth’s weather we must all appreciate that all events within the universe are cyclical. Our earth goes through changes. All planets go through changes. It is not feasible to expect temperature, earthquakes, floods, cyclones, monsoons etc. to remain constant year in and year out. The only constant in this universe is change. Everything is in a constant of change. The earth heats up and then it cools down and then it heats up again etc.
    The primary influence on the earth’s weather is the sun. The sun itself has its own cyclic activity. Activity on the sun that brings warmer weather to the earth has now just past its peak. The main cycle is around 300 years in duration. There are shorter and longer cycles that the sun operates under as well but generally speaking our earth will be cooler over the next 300 years than the last. Some of these cycles can become quite severe and can cause great swings in the earth’s temperature. For example, the extreme weather of the Ice Age came about well before fossil fuels were used by human beings. It just depends on which combination of sun cycles are occurring at any given time.
    On the subject of professorial research on the matter we must also understand that these people are human. Meaning that the more hype they sway in favor of global warming the more likely they are to get financial grants for “further research”. It’s not much fun being a closet professor and the furore about global warming has allowed these people to come out of the closet and into the “sunlight”. It wouldn’t be half as exciting and rewarding if they said man made global warming was just a hoax. They would then have to go back to the closet. “But what about all their research, all their facts. What about that?”
    Stories can be spun in any direction one chooses. Now that is a fact.


    • scorp100 says:

      Global warming is real or not – these kind of studies can take decades or probably hundreds of years to have sufficient data to determine something for sure. The point is – do we humans, continue to want to live in the same way and disregard any warnings. What worse could happen? For next generations, this planet will be more inhabitable than today. If you are okay to (potentially) give next generations a more messed up environment, than there is nothing to talk about. But if you are about them and you want to give them, same if not better environment, then we need to bring that change. And that starts with accepting the possibility that climate change is real. Mindless industrialization, deforestation etc need to be stopped. Clean energy need to be used.
      Why to play politics on coal industry? It’s okay to close coal mines or impose regulations, but government need to take care of EVERYONE, who is getting impacted and provide EVERYONE, new employment opportunities.


      • SPYtrader says:

        Finally we can agree to disagree.
        You can ride your bicycle everywhere, I will drive my SUV
        When its 10 degrees outside you keep your thermostat at 55 in your house and I will keep mine at a comfortable 72
        When it’s 100 degrees in the summer you can set your AC at 85 and I will letting my AC keep it at 70
        You limit your energy use and I will continue to use all the energy I can afford.


        • tummyboys says:

          Nearly all of your comments on this blog are puerile, douchey, and seething with ignorance. Why don’t you offer how you trade SPY since you where it as a signpost. Never seen a single chart from your backwards ass. Grow up, and try reading a little if your pea brain can handle it.


  3. hohoho598 says:

    I find it rather condescending that Lee seems to be the “post police” yet he says nothing of any value when he actually posts. At least Phil adds some value. Keep it up Phil.


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