Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then decline, DOW -10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED index was reported lower. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2802, and continued on to 2808 by 10am. After that, a pullback began. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2791, bounded to 2797 by 11:30, then headed even lower. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2769. Then after a rally to SPX 2782 by 3:30 the market closed at 2776.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Tomorrow: industrial production at 9:15, the homebuilders index at 10am, and then the Beige book at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied some 20+ points, and made a new high at SPX 2808. At the highs, not only did the SPX cross 2800 for the first time. The DOW crossed 26000, the NAZ crossed 7300, and the SPX was now up nearly 1000 points from the SPX 1810 bear market low in February 2016. Apparently traders were waiting for some or all of these events, as the market responded to those new highs by pulling back. The pullback gathered more sellers the lower it went. Until after declining nearly 40 points the market rebounded. No change in the counts. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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186 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…thank you for your consistant, week after week. Of charting the SP500.
    Stay healthy, and warm. It is winter in Illinois…

  2. Billy says:

    When it comes to changes in the earth’s weather we must all appreciate that all events within the universe are cyclical. Our earth goes through changes. All planets go through changes. It is not feasible to expect temperature, earthquakes, floods, cyclones, monsoons etc. to remain constant year in and year out. The only constant in this universe is change. Everything is in a constant of change. The earth heats up and then it cools down and then it heats up again etc.
    The primary influence on the earth’s weather is the sun. The sun itself has its own cyclic activity. Activity on the sun that brings warmer weather to the earth has now just past its peak. The main cycle is around 300 years in duration. There are shorter and longer cycles that the sun operates under as well but generally speaking our earth will be cooler over the next 300 years than the last. Some of these cycles can become quite severe and can cause great swings in the earth’s temperature. For example, the extreme weather of the Ice Age came about well before fossil fuels were used by human beings. It just depends on which combination of sun cycles are occurring at any given time.
    On the subject of professorial research on the matter we must also understand that these people are human. Meaning that the more hype they sway in favor of global warming the more likely they are to get financial grants for “further research”. It’s not much fun being a closet professor and the furore about global warming has allowed these people to come out of the closet and into the “sunlight”. It wouldn’t be half as exciting and rewarding if they said man made global warming was just a hoax. They would then have to go back to the closet. “But what about all their research, all their facts. What about that?”
    Stories can be spun in any direction one chooses. Now that is a fact.

    • scorp100 says:

      Global warming is real or not – these kind of studies can take decades or probably hundreds of years to have sufficient data to determine something for sure. The point is – do we humans, continue to want to live in the same way and disregard any warnings. What worse could happen? For next generations, this planet will be more inhabitable than today. If you are okay to (potentially) give next generations a more messed up environment, than there is nothing to talk about. But if you are about them and you want to give them, same if not better environment, then we need to bring that change. And that starts with accepting the possibility that climate change is real. Mindless industrialization, deforestation etc need to be stopped. Clean energy need to be used.
      Why to play politics on coal industry? It’s okay to close coal mines or impose regulations, but government need to take care of EVERYONE, who is getting impacted and provide EVERYONE, new employment opportunities.

      • SPYtrader says:

        Finally we can agree to disagree.
        You can ride your bicycle everywhere, I will drive my SUV
        When its 10 degrees outside you keep your thermostat at 55 in your house and I will keep mine at a comfortable 72
        When it’s 100 degrees in the summer you can set your AC at 85 and I will letting my AC keep it at 70
        You limit your energy use and I will continue to use all the energy I can afford.

        • tummyboys says:

          Nearly all of your comments on this blog are puerile, douchey, and seething with ignorance. Why don’t you offer how you trade SPY since you where it as a signpost. Never seen a single chart from your backwards ass. Grow up, and try reading a little if your pea brain can handle it.

  3. hohoho598 says:

    I find it rather condescending that Lee seems to be the “post police” yet he says nothing of any value when he actually posts. At least Phil adds some value. Keep it up Phil.

  4. looks like 2820-2828 tomorrow with a sell off end of day to pretend anyone cares about a government shut down.

  5. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  6. pooch77 says:

    Another bear fart in the wind

  7. fotis2 says:

    GLOBAL WARMING? NASA says Antarctic has been COOLING for past SIX years
    ANTARCTIC temperatures have cooled over the past six years, according to US space agency NASA.
    An intensive scientific study of both Earth’s poles has found that from 2009 to 2016 overall temperature has dropped in the southern polar region.

    NASA’s Operation IceBridge is an airborne survey of polar ice and has finalised two overlapping research campaigns at both the poles.

    In the last few weeks NASA has revealed the overall amount of ice has increased at the Antarctic and the amount of sea ice has also extended.

    Coupled with the latest announcement of slight cooling in the area, it has fuelled claims from climate change deniers that human industrialisation is not having the huge impact on global tenperature as often is claimed.

    • H D says:

      This is factual but not presenting the entire truth.
      “Sea ice as a whole is decreasing as expected, but just like with global warming, not every location with sea ice will have a downward trend in ice extent,”

      Fotis, the bottom line for me is what I can see and feel with my own senses. Spend some time outdoors. Observe storm intensity, fire season, wildlife behavior. It’s really not political for me at all. It’s just what I have seen with my own eyes over the past 10 years that concerns me.

      • purplember says:

        HD, it is political that is the problem. why would any human being believe anything that comes our of mouth of politician. secondly, when head of global warming Al Gore goes from net worth of $1 million to over $200 million doing GW work. it doesn’t give anyone the warm fuzzy feeling this is truthful

      • SPYtrader says:

        A question I have for HD and the other climate change fanatics is what are you doing personally to help with the climate change problem? Another question is if I have an opposing view why should I have to do what you are doing?

        • hey spy……that article that I posted on the 97% being 100% wrong always shuts people down because it ruins there inconvenient untruths. The evidence stands above the theories…….aside from that follow the money and the facts

  8. kjb0 says:

    This OEW site was never intended for day traders, but through the years they always dominate posts because that is where the action is on a day to day basis. Even though 90% of them lose most of their money or just spin their wheels over time. Those of us who have been here for a long time have seen them come and go. It seems guys like Phil are good at what they do, but if he had longer swing trade parameters, instead of day trade parameters, I think more readers would be interested in reading his views. Of course the market would have to return to normal ebb and flow. And also, he wouldn’t have to post as much, which would make Lee happy. 🙂

    • great stuff, who are the most reliable posters? 123abc is very good

    • aahmichael says:

      Day traders almost always close out their trades before the end of the day and go home flat. However, they’re doing it backwards, Since 1993, if you bought SPY on open/sold on close each day, return would be -5.2%…but if you did the opposite & bought on close/sold on open next day, return would be 568% (meaning more than ALL performance came in after-hours trading)

  9. fotis2 says:

    ^%$#@!! freezing here right now can’t remember it being so cold they should line up those global warming gurus and question them about this cold weather they keeping very quite right now.

  10. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Time to start looking at GDX support levels.10d EMA at 23.68(currently 23.81).Last pullback went to the 20d,the one before that,below the 20d.Possible (and preferable)this pullback is shallower and stops at the 10.Otherwise,time to worry again about a reversal.Good luck all.

  11. lunker1 says:

    Guessing will see a diamond continuation on SPX range 40 points before potentially moving higher. Or will it fail

  12. Lee X says:

    Ahhhhhhh the internet

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