Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +206

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower and weekly jobless claims were higher. After pulling back to SPX 2736 by Wednesday morning, the market rallied to nearly unchanged. Today the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2755, hit the high at 2759 by 10am, then dipped to 2753 by 10:30. Then the market rallied to new highs. Heading into the close the SPX hit a new high 2768 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.75%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude was flat, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 pivot. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, then business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today reversing yesterday’s gap down opening. Then it rallied to new all-time highs in the afternoon. The count we posted Tuesday continues to extend from SPX 2557. Now we can see an ongoing 9-waves up from SPX 2606 on a shorter timeframe. Closing in on the end of Nano iii? Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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148 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    SP count, does not look correct. From the II low Jan 2018.
    Blue 3, and 4 may need to look at again.

    Glad your bakc Tony, stay healthy. Maybe living in Florida.
    Warm today, and lots of sunshine, 40 N Tampa.


    Reading through the comments most, if not everybody, are now making money. That’s what happens at the end of a trend. For a few weeks everyone is in, and up. It then reverses and everybody is in and down. The surest sign something bad is about to happen is when there is nobody left who is losing.
    I have been long and remain so in the HSCEI and uk miners. Miners have ripped and will probably double again long term.
    I am shorting S&P next week above 2780. I see lots of resistance in this area but I don’t think it really matters if we go up some more. I can afford to hold. Parabolic moves always get a full retrace.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      that does not strike me as a well thought out strategy. So if the parabola goes up another 20%, then retraces only 30 before moving higher, you’re screwed.

  3. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ Enterning the YPTFZ! 😉

  4. M1 says:

    Hi Tony !!!
    Nice to see you are ok ….and markets making new all time highs.
    sent you an email but had no answer
    Wish you the best for this 2018

  5. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Is this phenomena of stocks going up,what I’ve always heard described as “helicopter money”?Vivelamo is right.Money for everyone–every asset class.You just have to be in to win.Lol. (or lose).

  6. phil1247 says:


    .. the traditional did its job…. 2789.5 target hit!
    but it took all freaking day …. lol

  7. vivelaamo says:

    Fiona nailed both oil and gold while people were talking of collapses. Fortune favours the patient.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …but you have to have believers too Vive…remember I said there was more upside to the RUT….but it took a lot of sideways first, and you hung in there….
      ERX I suggested to you and Newbie (the other) at the low, and it hasn’t been easy, but it has gone up about 15, and has farther to go..
      In the golds, I have GDXJ doubling…
      I favour commodities as I think the indices are overbought…(but there is momentum).
      There is still 85 in oil’s future, but until I see a pattern taking us there, holding DBE is ideal as it includes Brent, NG, as well as CL. I shall tell you when there is a clear path to 70/75/85…
      Also TBT is still not safe, regardless of the bond attention in the media…there is crosshatching with TLT still…I shall tell you when the coast is clear…x

  8. NEWBIE says:

    You are witnessing a blow off top. Vix, gold, and silver are Screaming SELL on spx.

  9. Bud Fox says:

    SPX….the SP500 is now moving into a strong price resitance level,
    2780 to 2800. That said, I am looking for a break down in this
    uptrend off the Jan low of 2685. That is my tenetive downside price
    objective, for now. Updating, mybe required, next week….Bud

  10. captbara says:

    Gold > SPX. Nuff said.

  11. phil1247 says:

    . stop pushed up to 83 es
    on auto pilot now
    see ya next week

  12. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Gold has obviously broken out…silver at 17.25 will confirm.Goldfingers crossed P&F gets it right.This was the tough part–getting through 1325-1330.Enjoy.

  13. may never see 2700 again. Still on Nano 3 with a small nano 4 then another nano 5 to higher highs. Then micro 4 then micro 5 to new highs. 150 point pull back from 2850 might get you to 2700. Moster.

  14. phil1247 says:

    gary ……… this is the situation atm

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie – Do I want you to stop bantering with me? No way! I love it!!! Especially when it’s making me stinking rich!! 😉

  16. tommyboys says:

    A/D busting new highs again today and this week. No bear in sight (sorry newb). That said a correction can sure come at any moment and is due – but doesn’t mean it will.

  17. Lee X says:

    If I can interrupt the intriguing political discussion and the Like I Saids
    It’s freaking pivot time again folks

  18. Bud Fox says:

    LOOKING BACK !!!! it makes me sick, when I look at a 20-25 year chart of
    SSO or the SP500 index. Set the trading idea aside, and plan with a long term
    SP500 chart — it is the only way to enjoy life and profit from the stock market, period.

    For example, the last major Buy, for the SP was in 2009. 2009, which was 9
    years ago. I mean, trading can be fun/interesting, etc. But, why be concerned
    with market timing so often. When you can be at a nice Florida beach, hmmm.

    So…Yes, I have missed, huge investment opportunites. But – NO MORE…
    Now, I look at, a new website and link to the SP – great — Using TC2000
    ver 18.0.6584.20033

    In closing. The purpose of this comment. Is to share, what I have learned.
    So that, you. With Toby’s help can create a wealth program. Best to you all.

    SP500 cash is in it’s 5th wave up – coming off the 2009, main low.
    Bud Fox

  19. fionamargaret says:

    Just the same as before…huge upside, so not 3x…buy and hold

  20. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Another technical indicator destroyed?Bollinger bands now worthless in this market?Looks like a perfect situation for continued craziness with the upper BB rising at an angle of 5-10 points daily?They could ride ’em until they get tired of riding it.Amazing.I remember when bbs(or channel tops)used to cause a reversal.Have to stop thinking about technicals and charts I guess.Later all.

  21. vivelaamo says:

    God bless America. 🇺🇸

  22. phil1247 says:

    purple…… the dip in CL this am
    not crazy about it cuz ext was nicked ….
    tight stop and looking to get out near 64
    before any more swooooooooooooooooooooooooshes

    • purplember says:

      correct me if i’m wrong. it was nicked at 63.19 but went thru and hit 63.06. possible short entry at 63.90 / 64.11 50%/61%

      i’m thinking of selling my 3x longs

    • purplember says:

      phil my long ride of CL since $56 is over. i sold all UWT. i didn’t sell at peak of 64.50 but 63.70 is ok. look for next opportunity to go long or short

      • phil1247 says:

        excellent job purp
        i only caught about 80% of the rise from 56 jumping in and out
        maybe i should just buy and hold …………..

        ….. nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

  23. think nano 3 is done nano 4 30-40 point pull back then back up for nano 5

  24. phil1247 says:

    gary………looks like 2781 es is a gimme

  25. tommyboys says:

    Pelosi says $1-2k is “NOTHING” to the middle class. Man is she outta touch with her entitled elitist mindset! That pays my annual heating bill. This amount will be doubled, tripled or quadrupled when bonuses & pay increases are tagged on. FCA gonna invest $1B into plants in Warren, MI – a hugely depressed area – hiring an additional 2500 people – thanks to the reduction in corp tax. How does this NOT help the middle class? Sanity NOW! TRUMP!

    • fotis2 says:

      What I don’t get is how many people slamming the tax cut???? Typical looking at a gift horse in the mouth story.They should come live here in socialist paradise Greece for a while….

    • H D says:

      TB, Have you noticed how most people have toned down the rhetoric?

      “The 2015 UAW FCA National Negotiating Committee. 2. Upon ratification: Up-front bonus: $4,000, 3% general wage increase. 2016: 4% lump sum bonus — $2,400 for a typical production worker.”

      and now just a $1000 bonus?

      Interesting spin for FOX to credit a POTUS with what their union has negotiated.

      • fenster6 says:

        + 100 HD and Icdoo
        The reason people are slamming it fotis, is that it favors the v. wealthy who dont need a tax cut and will invest it in assets $1000 for a middle class family $9 Million for a trust fund baby. Better to have taken 2000000 low earners right out of the taxation bracket. the working poor. And still had money left over.

        Secondly, we cannot afford it. But I guess that doesn’t matter. tru,mp is the king of over-leverage and goes BK when he cannot repay it.

        • tommyboys says:

          OMG you guys are RIGHT! How foolish. What a scam – tax cuts REALLY? Wow they are really bamboozling us. Lets collectively tell them to take them back pronto! I want a 50% income tax across the BOARD – ala Canada/Greece/Belgium!
          Its SO much better to have those “in the know” (our leaders) to spend our money! Lets keep searching for anything we can to end this pathetic administration and get Clinton or Oprah in RAPIDLY – or maybe Bernie then we can live like Russians(?) We can’t survive another year with this clown in office. Sorry got lost for a minute.

        • tommyboys says:

          Obama spends $9T on non-returning “expenses”. Trumpy invests $1.5T on revenue generating resources and HE’S the big “spender” – OK – laughable. Again ECON 101.

    • SPYtrader says:

      Pelosi has a net worth of over $100 million. She, like all the other rich Elitist Democrats could care less about the middle class.

      • fenster6 says:

        That is fake noews, a lie. She has reported her net worth unlike the lying Prez you obviously support. It is less than one quarter of the number you quoted

        Still alot. Kudos for her for not supporting a bill which will give her many hundreds of thousands in gains. Some people look beyond their self interest.

        • SPYtrader says:

          You believe your fake news and I will believe my fake news.
          But to be fair, her $100 million plus net worth probably includes all the money her EVIL Investment Banker husband made while Obama was president.

  26. NEWBIE says:

    Bulls, your best case scenario is this down move is a c wave to 2700 area, if not we are going down several hundred points lower on s&p in quick fashion.

  27. quickrick38 says:

    Gold; higher highs, higher lows.
    Silver; lower highs, lower lows.

  28. torehund says: the bit-coiners, or ?

  29. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Gold breaking through 1325 by a couple bucks.Big resistance say most.Most say next stop 1380.Most said it would never rally from 1245.Dollar behaving as it should be.SPX doesn’t pull back unless it loses embedded reading.I screwed up figuring moving from the Bollinger Bands would bring a pullback.Not in this market.Of course the Katie Stockton correction may happen out of the blue–she says thanks to a FANG plunge.That’s it for me today.Good night all.

  30. NEWBIE says:

    Let this sink in for a minute.

    • tommyboys says:

      Listen to the “has been” Schiff at your own peril – along with Prechter, Gartman, CNN etc… Schiff’s career got randomly lucky in it’s timing. He began managing money in the Bond market at the peak of a multi-decade rate cycle – and rode it south for thirty+ years. All done now and has been for several years. Past 5 years he’s just trying to stay relavent – unfortunately he’s irrelevant as the rest.

  31. 123 abc says:

    2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) — FINAL

  32. tommyboys says:

    The company (FCA) also plans to pay $2,000 bonuses this spring to about 60,000 hourly and salaried U.S. employees. Senior executives won’t get the bonus.

  33. tommyboys says:

    FCA investing a Billion$ in Warren, MI – TRUMP!

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES at

  35. fenster6 says:

    The count is Up 1, Up 2, Up more 3 and then a lot more up 4.


    I am going short at 2790. May as well add my name to the rest of the mugs.
    I will keep my longs in the HSCEI. Uk miners.

  37. Thank you Tony. I hope you continue to get well. On the money calls Phil. Good job!!

  38. phil1247 says:

    .. 2769 es … ding,
    did u see the chart i made for you?
    boyze are sure to run it up to 75 overnite…
    if i know their tricks

    • gary61b says:

      Yes thanks Phil. I got out at 69 and waiting for nano 4 to pullback for another entry.

      • phil1247 says:

        ha!… i just sold SPXL now at 48.92
        i figure even if it goes thru 75………. we need to trade the next extension
        …but i am keeping some longs
        just in case they take it to the – .618 target at es 2799

  39. pooch77 says:

    Anyone afraid of heights

  40. Lee X says:

    Thanks dude

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