Tuesday update

SHORT TERM new highs then late pullback, DOW +103

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4% as well. US index futures were higher overnight. The market opened at SPX 2754, 6 points above yesterday’s 2748 close. Then after a small pullback to SPX 2548 the market began to rally. The rally continued until 2pm when the SPX hit 2759. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2751.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude rose $1.20, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 pivot. Tomorrow: export/import prices at 8:30, then wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened at a new high today, pulled back to yesterday’s close, then hit another new high at SPX 2759. Quite a 9-month uptrend! No change in the short term count: 2590-2578-2658-2606-2759 … waves 1-2, i-ii-iii. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 pivot. Short momentum dropped from extremely overbought to neutral during the afternoon pullback. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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215 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    ..have to somehow agree with newbee, the rally has an unsound flare to itself…But a squeezy flee market it is, no doubt about that 🙂 Fast and furious like Trump…

  2. tommyboys says:

    A/D really significantly strong at 3/1 pos…man!

  3. minute 1 was 118 points. the 2x minute 1 is at 2793, which is where I expect int 3 to end.

    See ya all tomorrow. good luck

  4. Menachem Uzan says:

    Amazing to see you back!

  5. purplember says:

    CL keeps going up in extensions.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    I can’t believe RUSSELL could hit the inverse H&S target of 1600+ in the first month of the year!

    Incredible!!! Long live Donald Trump 🇺🇸

    • purplember says:

      Media is really upset with tax bill. how can they bash trump when companies are announcing they are giving raises to employees due to the tax bill. walmart just announced increasing wages, my sister in law company sent letter than all employees will get $1-2 per hour, many others as well.

      • aahmichael says:

        The media understands the truth about the Trump tax bill and knows that the tiny increases in wages are going to be overwhelmed by the increases in health care premiums caused by the elimination of the individual mandate. Just like Trump played the Carrier employees for fools, he played the rest of his base for fools too.

        …Just wait until they figure out that there isn’t ever going to be a wall, and that they (not Mexico) are going to pay for whatever additional border security measures are put in place.

        • tommyboys says:

          aamichael is UNBELIEVEABLE – LOL – Lib media understands NOTHING – except they’re 100% complicit with the failures of previous admins. All they understand is that a NON-politician got elected and is making the changes that the anti-American administrations have not done for decades! Congress has become a self serving fat cat providing ONLY for their elitist kind. “Tiny” increases are all that can be expected against a tiny wage moron. What’s the Obama alternative – NOTHING – ZERO! You’d prefer ZERO wouldn’t ya? It’s the same argument for the tax cuts. How do you give a guy making $30k a $100k tax cut? The guy making $500k might get $25-50k cut – SO F*&$ WHAT! Carrier got a HUGE tax cut from 35 – 21% – FOOLS? I think not. UNREAL! FINALLY we have a man of the people and they HATE IT – on MYRIAD levels. They will disagree with EVERY single idea he initiates with the assistance of their national media machine for ONE reason – THEY DIDN’T DO IT. They need him to fail JUST to exonerate themselves – forget partisan-ism altogether – just exoneration…

          • aahmichael says:

            Trump and Pence made a big deal during the campaign that they were saving 2000 jobs at Carrier by giving it a $7 million tax incentive to stay in Indiana. That $7 million was paid by the residents of Indiana. Then they gave Carrier a huge tax cut. So what did Carrier do with all of its good fortunes? It’s moving more operations to Mexico and laying off 600 of its American employees. Such a deal.

            By the way, I’m still waiting to see just one post from you that isn’t filled with ad hominem attacks and straw man arguments. I won’t be holding my breath, though.

            • SPYtrader says:

              LOL. All aahmichael can post is the Carrier example over and over and over again.

            • tommyboys says:

              Any Carrier laid off employees are FAR better off in this economy than the one a year or 5 years ago – WAKE UP. Put your Trump hang ups on HOLD and embrace the POLICIES man! Idiots!

          • scorp100 says:

            Tommy, you got “massive” tax cuts. Well, good for you. But do one favor to yourself – stop watching Fox. It’s okay, if you don’t watch other liberal media channels, but you need to take long break from fox.

            • SPYtrader says:

              scorp100, if I do not want to watch the Liberal channels; ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC and you recommend not watching FOX, please advise several other alternate news channels that would give me opposing views from the Liberal channels mentioned.

              • scorp100 says:

                Not watching Fox will clear your mind. Like always, it’s up to you, what you want to watch. I think, due to very strong views against other party (democrats and liberal media, in this case), we are not able to think clearly. I don’t support any particular party, so don’t label me as democrat or republican.
                On the tax cut front, did you get tax cut what you were promised or had expected? If so, great. Then think, did all get fair amount of tax cuts/benefits. If yes, that’s great.
                Someone mentioned Walmart announced wage hike. Today, they also announced closing of around 63 (I believe) Sams Club stores and laying of hundreds, if not thousands. Companies gained millions in tax benefits, shared some of it with some employees and did a good PR. No benefits to consumers though.

            • tommyboys says:

              A tax cut doesn’t have to be MASSIVE. ANY cut is a WONDERFUL cut! Stop focusing on Fox News – I don’t – and never in my life – have had Cable TV. I use rabbit ears (laugh if you must). In what world do you morons live that you’d rather have the government keep your hard earned dollars. Move to Nortg Korea if you prefer your keaders to manage your money! Take an ECON 101 course! EMBRACE the POLICIES, get over the messenger…

    • quickrick38 says:

      Down right amazing…I’m thinking that Monday or at the latest, Tuesday could be the end of this wave 5. I’m also thinking that the end of this week would be a good time to get cautious.

  7. phil1247 says:

    es 69…. then 75

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Remember ‘B’ waves that just keep going up were the best long signal for the whole of 2017. Expect the same this year.

    I don’t use EW so whenever I see posters on here mentioning B waves. I add more longs.

    Thanks all.

  9. quickrick38 says:

    Finally! Broke above the previous high – took half a day to move 12 pts.

  10. NEWBIE says:

    (b) at 2759-2761 now (c) down to 2721

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Higher oil / gas prices not good fro economic growth. Sorry bulls, just another reason to be worried.

  12. NEWBIE says:

    Party’s over Bulls. It was a hell of a run but now that wall street has everyone long and convinced everything is great, now comes the reality.

  13. Bud Fox says:

    11:10 am edt…believe we are nearing a price top, but 2759.
    May not be quite the exact high, but very close…..

  14. phil1247 says:

    DOW……..next target up 100 points higher from here

  15. phil1247 says:


    see how DH screwed the pooch again on bonds ?
    glad i dont listen to him or i would be in a world of hurt now

    also …. his ” correlation ” of dollar /yen and bonds
    has blown up in his face
    just when you need a correlation to work …………. poof………. its gone !

  16. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Dax down 125.No problem for US equities?Is money coming out of Dax going to Nasdaq and S&P?How long can that go on?Interesting stuff.Dollar,no sign of fake reversal and move up today.Good luck all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Just received a note from John Murphy.
      He thinks the Euro is about to break out….dollar weaker and good for commodities…
      Now if only the masses would think of investing in COW…my worst holding…and a little fear would be nice…

      • torehund says:

        Think food is gong to rally regardless of which way the currencies move. Any agricultural exposure should do fine. Have been following DAG, double agriculture etf, it has been ripe for a bullish phase for a long time.

  17. 2780 area is just going to finish micro 3. then micro 4 approx. 40 points and micro 5.over 2800.

    Just my 2 cents

  18. merovix says:

    2756 is indicated as a SP500 yearly Gann angle by an Italian expert that I consider very serious.
    I could not retrieve the exact post, but the web site of reference is http://cicliegann.finanza.com.
    I will try a short if this level will not hold.
    Best wishes to all

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