Weekend update


The market started the week/year at SPX 2674. After the Monday holiday the market gapped up at the open on Tuesday, rallied Wednesday and Thursday, then gapped up again on Friday. Ending the week at the new all-time high of SPX 2743. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the downtick: monthly payrolls, ISM services, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales, ADP, and factory orders rose. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by retail sales and the CPI/PPI. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The long term count remains unchanged since mid-2016. Primary waves I and II completed in 2015 and 2016 respectively. And Primary wave III has been underway since the SPX 1810 February 2016 low.

The current bull market is being labeled as Major wave 1 of Primary III. It is expected to last 2 – 4 years, while Primary III is expected to last about 15 years. Major wave 1 is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Int. i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Int. iii then start to subdivide it into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017, Minor wave 5 has been underway since then.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current medium term uptrend, Minor 5, has been underway since April. Quite a long and complicated uptrend indeed. We have been labeling this uptrend, with some success, with five Minute waves and their subdivisions. Minute waves i and ii ended in June/July, and Minute waves iii and iv ended in November. Since that SPX 2557 low in mid-November Minor wave 5 has been underway.

When this uptrend does end. We should see about a 5% correction for Int. iv. Then new all-time highs during Int. v. Medium term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 pivot.


Minute v started off a bit choppy, but has spent most of the past four weeks just climbing higher and higher. During the choppiness we were able to quantify four waves: 2590-2578-2658-2606. Since then, despite a few decent pullbacks, only one upwave has quantified from SPX 2606.

This activity suggests SPX 2590 and 2578 might be Micro waves 1 and 2, and SPX 2658-2606-2743 might be a subdividing Micro 3. We labeled this on the chart with the orange 1-2 and the gray i-ii-iii underway. With the market sailing through another pivot this week OEW 2780 appears to be the next target. Short term support at 2731 and 2656, with resistance at 2780. Short term momentum ended with a potential negative divergence. Best to your trading in the New Year!


Asian markets were all higher and gained 2.2%.

European markets were also all higher and gained 2.7%.

The DJ World index gained 2.7%, and the NYSE gained 2.3%.


Bonds are in a downtrend and lost 0.4% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 1.7% on the week.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 1.6%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.


Monday: consumer credit at 3pm. Wednesday: export/import prices and wholesale inventories. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, thee PPI and the budget deficit. Friday: the CPI, business inventories, and retail sales.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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117 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Party bus continues north. Futures heating up this morning. Only question is will the 2755 area invoke a 30 point pullback or just motor down the road towards 2780
    Need a 35 -45 point wave 4 and then a 5 up just to finish micro 3. Micro 1was approx 90 points. Assume we drop back to 2720, micro 1 would equal 5 at 2810. With a micro 4 and 5 still to come.
    However wave 3s are usually brutal and 5s simply make minor highs. So either way, 2810 area plus looks like an easy target before int 4.
    Giddy up. Good luck all

  2. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Amyone wanting to post something here has to go through their wordpress account–something messed up here.Search for OEW,click and then post.

  3. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Looks to my bleary eyes like a bull flag forming on GDX.10d ema at 23.32 (now at 23.42)Would prefer no break of 20d.DXY looks like it’s trying to unembed and rally.If GDX holds the ema–good upside left.Under 23.32 has to be a caution–plus GDX would unembed itself.Good luck all.

  4. the party bus to new highs wants to go higher, but everyone is still hung over from last week and nobody can drive the bus. Im sure someone will take the wheel and drive us to 2750 today

    • as assumed, they got the party bus moving North. At the moment its taking out all the mail boxes along the street, so will have to see what they manage into the close. Straighten her out and reach 2750-2755 or crash on the side of the road for a small wave 4 down to 2710-2720 .

      that’s 3 see ya all tomorrow

  5. kvilia says:

    CL maybe doing ABC down with ab of A done? A ending at $60.25? Short from 61.60s last week, may unload around 60.25 if it holds and go long to 62.20. Long term CL is actually in an interesting spot. Once 62.5 is broken, I’m looking at Tony’s target of 85 or slightly higher for CL – crazy profit. In this case CL will be in gigantic range – 40-90 until it breaks from this range. But first – 62.5.

  6. SP 3oo has been red for a whole hour for 2018 not sure it can take it any longer must go green

  7. fotis2 says:

    Eur down Dollar up?Hmmm

  8. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  9. Lee X says:

    ” 3 posts or less a day
    No posting trades
    No politics or religion ”

    You guys can do it this year , it’s easy if you try

  10. get well Tony, prayers for you.

  11. zvyezda says:

    Not saying definitely, but there could be action ongoing at the moment against North Korea.

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