Weekend Update

Tony is going to be absent for a little while. There are some health concerns we are dealing with as some of you may know. For the moment he does not have access to a computer. I will keep you updated throughout the week with any news. Thank you for your patience and all the well wishes.

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404 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. mcgcapital says:

    Feels like a lot of people are looking for tops.. I had thought we’d almost definitely see 2600 before a santa rally but as some have mentioned the b waves just keep going. There’s still 10 trading days left this year but have to say the vol has been crushed already so probably very slow grind up until Xmas now. Keeping powder dry for a January correction

  2. blackjak100 says:

    If a proper contracting ED is forming from 2605, wave c completed at 2672 and wave d should find support at 2640ish. Wave e to new ATH to complete structure. Let’s see

  3. kingfrogcash says:

    call me a fool, (just call me), I went long UVXY into the FOMC. Just to much given. 11.20

  4. phil1247 says:

    Fotis
    CL
    BRICK wall back in business
    listen for swoooooooooooooooooshhhhhhhhhhhh soon

  5. thoth8 says:

    Reversal Day for the Bitcoin?!

  6. Mary773 says:

    Gold has bottomed in mid-December the last two years and positive divergences are forming. The Gold/Silver ratio has reached levels that have identified significant lows in the complex over the last twenty years. Conversely, commercials are heavily short the Euro, and if they are right a rising US Dollar will be negative for the metals. Also, Platinum has broken support. We will see if gold changes character and reacts positively to the rate increase. Coming off his accurate call on natural gas, the world eagerly awaits Jack Sparrow to provide his conclusive insights.

    • 1.Past performance is no indicator…etc.
      2.GDX still embedded bearishly.If by chance it gets out of that quagmire,the Fed could send it right back in.
      3.The 10d is 21.88,20d 22.17–currently below both at 21.86.
      Summary–a bounce that means nothing so far.

    • aahmichael says:

      I think it’s all abut the Yen. The Yen never confirmed the false breakout in gold in late August, and it has also not confirmed the most recent breakdown in gold. If the Yen is up this week and also next week, then I think clear sailing is ahead.

  7. phil1247 says:

    mini ed ………..quick down swoosh now es

  8. Today, the SP500 looks ot be just holding it’s own.
    Expect, price decline toward the end of the day, today.

  9. torehund says:

    Hello from me to all forum friends ! Biotech could maybe be a good bet here going out of a small 2.

    • fionamargaret says:

      TNA is very bullish….up to 90..

      • fionamargaret says:

        I still have UGAZ…remember I said it could go to 5.50, but was buying at its 52 week low..well, it went to 5.50, but think it is up from here…check your own charts….
        and I have UGLD…

      • fionamargaret says:

        …this is the index (IWM) that has much more upside than the rest…..US domestic growth??… the upside number on TNA is actually 96…

  10. Lee X says:

    Thanks so much Christine
    Your Dad has been incredibly generous and kind to us here day in day out , all my best to your family.

    Get well Tony !

    Steve

  11. GDX has a classic +div–all it needs is to unembed from under 20,to be off to the races.DXY doing a bungee jump from its H&S would be great of course.It’s all in the Fed’s hands for future rate hikes.The setup is there.Later.

  12. lunker1 says:

    Tony’s Thursday update comments are now locked and the same will happen with this comment section until there’s a new update. If all comment sections are locked you guys can feel free to use my blog to shoot the bull until you can post here again. I have no designs on stealing members, charging a fee or even posting my own daily updates with my content. It’s just a place to go temporarily if need be so you can continue to share ideas with your Internet friends.

    https://lunker1.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/tonys-oew-group-feel-free-to-post-here/

  13. lunker1 says:

    SPX and Dow -D at ATH

  14. scottycj1 says:

    FWIW…….The old rule regarding the Fed was to sell when they raised for the 3rd time….an indication rates would continue to rise. If they raise today it will be the 3rd time. I realize rates are low…..just pointing out what was standard in the past.

  15. jobjas says:

    SPX target 2655

  16. phil1247 says:

    esh8

    extension long traded overnite…………..oval
    targets 2680 …………..
    then 2686

  17. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Hope you get better mate.


  18. What a beautiful H&S formation.Let’s see what the Fed does to it this week.

  19. micky says:

    I have the high as a 3 from the low at 2625, so for the b wave guys thats it, I see it as 3 however with 4 and 5 to come. It is a bull until its not.

  20. Fox calls Alabama Sen seat to Jones.Much analysis that after Jan 1st,the Trump agenda is in big trouble with one less seat backing him.Futes down in reflex action.

    • Just means tax reform is in the bag. Question is how much of that is factored in.

    • fotis2 says:

      Gold bounced off HWB from last year lows yesterday

      • fionamargaret says:

        I appreciate your posts and charts Fotis. Gold is not dead yet…
        I forgot I do have an interest in Bitcoin…I bought ARKK a couple of weeks ago..an ETF…check its top 10 holdings…x

    • purplember says:

      Moore was as flawed as Hilliary. gop/dem parties are so arrogant. they act like they can put shi+ on the ballot and americans should just vote for them.

      it’s strange how Dems bashed all the women who accused Bill clinton of rape but now want to give women a voice

  21. Hi Tony,
    May G-d bless you with a complete recovery speedily.

  22. B Seagle says:

    IBB Daily…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Sibelius, the Finnish composer, started out as a violinist, but even with constant practising, realized he had started out too late to be able to be anything other than ordinary.
      Yes, self-doubt plagued him, but then he turned to writing music, which was met with success.
      He was enthralled with the work of Bruckner and Mahler, and while Sibelius’s music was based on thematic permutations and derivations, a meeting with Mahler suggested a symphony should embrace every aspect of the world (which might explain the rather disconnected patterns in Mahler’s work ).
      After finishing his seventh symphony, he found it impossible to write his eighth and became reclusive…again self-doubt had taken the upper hand…
      He was totally beloved in his homeland, and this is what was the motivational factor behind his original compositions…….x

  23. vipulm555 says:

    SmartZ,

    Jan 1 , 2018

    Dow 27k , SPX 2700 , both same day .

    Cheers!

  24. 123 abc says:

    The DOW and SPX both made new all-time highs today, and so guesswork would suggest Minute-v→Micro-3 is underway commencing the Santa rally. At 2732, Micro-3 would equal the length of Micro-1 (first chart, bullish scenario).

    However, the NDX and COMPQ are yet to make new all-time highs. Until the Nasdaq indices break to new all-time highs too, it may be cautious to suggest the DOW and SPX are undergoing Irregular b-wave rallies. For the SPX, the allowable extent of an Irregular b-wave rally (believed to be under OEW) would be at 2690 which is 1.618 times the length of a-wave (second chart, bearish scenario).

    In summary, the bullish scenario gains credence if either the NDX and COMPQ indices make new all-time highs, or if the SPX exceeds 2690.

    Final meeting of the year for the Fed tomorrow and the FOMC is expected to hike rates for the third time this year. Also, likely to be Yellen’s last appearance at the helm before Powell takes over.


  25. vivelaamo says:

    Everyone is expecting a large correction in 2018 just because we haven’t had one for so long. Maybe even in January.

    However records have being broken and are now being set. I would not be suprised to see the whole year pass by without another 5% pb in the Dow and SPX. Remember this post for next December. 2018 will see bigger gains than 2017. Mark my words.

    Good evening all.

  26. phil1247 says:

    SPX……
    . still nothing bearish per se
    but i am happy to be out of all longs
    especially with spx closing below the yellow line
    not interested in shorting until the extension long fails at 2652

  27. they have had this market on a string all day. 2o minutes to drop it a point or 2 then yank it up in less then a minut. Sting is going to break very soon

  28. lunker1 says:

    Tony called it. 2625 held. So far one wave up. Yesterday afternoon tested 2656 pivot support before moving higher. Today 2670 extremely overbought on 60min has now cooled off some. Daily still has room to run. Would not be surprised to see a retest of 2656. The 38% is at 2653. Anyone calculate the next pivots?

  29. stcoleridge says:

    Anyone else see us in nano i of micro 3 of minute v?

  30. phil1247 says:

    es 2674 target hit
    taking profits on half of longs to get off margin

  31. Im all in short spxs 30.28 I like the EDT ending at 2673. So I still think we may push a few point higher, but im not waiting.. see what happens

  32. fotis2 says:

    CL DT 56.7 next 54.8

    https://invst.ly/62f9x

  33. micky says:

    I propose Vive gets the quote of the year award.

  34. phil1247 says:

    tore

    TBT………. a little more and we can get really zooming
    watch out around 1pm at 30 yr auction

  35. ragnar5 says:

    Tony, I’m sending healing energy. You have created a wonderful community!
    Current Bubble status of SPX is the highest in 3 years. Click on SPX red box here:
    http://tasmania.ethz.ch/pubfco/fco.html

  36. Good morning all another bull open. I’m going to agree with soulmsurfer on his edt. Looked at the charts and makes most sense to me. A topped out at 2658 C at 2665 looking for E to top out at 2673 today or tomorrow with a possible over throw of a few points. Then an A wave down. Santa rally isn’t technically last 5 days of December and first 2days of January. A lot can still happen. I’m shorting the open 1 last time.

    Good luck all

  37. 56rambler says:

    Dear Mrs. Caldaro,

    Thank you for letting us know. It shows Mr. Caldaro’s dedication to our community and I really appreciate everything that he does. Please wish him a speedy recovery and know that both of you remain in our thoughts and prayers.

    Best wishes!

  38. fionamargaret says:

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=bbffc5f9-1b8a-4086-aa57-ae54ae46ac85&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony……and everyone xx

    Tonight Mahler 9 Symphony, conducted by Bernstein, which is a lesson unto itself.

  39. Mary773 says:

    AAPL is consolidating just below ATH. Thirty-seven years ago today, Massachusetts barred
    Apple’s Initial Public Offering citing excessive valuation. The stock has since risen 43,500 percent.

  40. lunker1 says:

    Friday the Dow made a new high close and today SPX did the same. The uptrend may be extending. I new ATH would confirm this.

  41. thoth8 says:

    Tony, get well soon : )

  42. Tony thank you for all you do, get well soon.

  43. phil1247 says:

    ES………… new highs

    2667 ext long target just hit
    we can continue up to traditional target at 2683
    where minute 5= minute 1
    as long as the extension long holds the .618 support which is
    …… currently at 2651…..

    if /when 2683 is hit …….. we retrace or blast higher in a new extension

    • Gap and go tomorrow. If abc is right and this is only micro 3 , looks like this thing is going a lot higher. :micro 1 was 60. A 1,5 micro 3 would get you to 2715. then micro 4 and micro 5. then maybe 100-120 point pull back to 2600. Crazy bull market. I have no idea anymore.

      • phil1247 says:

        close up of the extension long………….
        2674…………… then 2683…………….. then …………….we will see

    • scottycj1 says:

      Phil
      The cash target is 2667.16 which is 4X the 09 low of 666.79 —- could be the wave 5 that completes Int 3. If so today becomes the closing high at my CIT and tomorrow is the pop and drop and a hard day down. (there were turns at the 2, and 3X 2009 low as well)

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