Tony is going to be absent for a little while. There are some health concerns we are dealing with as some of you may know. For the moment he does not have access to a computer. I will keep you updated throughout the week with any news. Thank you for your patience and all the well wishes.
Recent Comments
SPX
Bullish scenario: Micro-3→Nano-ii pullback is currently underway which ought to find support at the 2646 pivot range (-/+ 7 points). At 2648, the pullback would mark a 50% retracement. A deeper pullback to the lower end of the 2646 pivot would fill a gap at 2640. Either way once the pullback finds support, then Micro-3→Nano-iii would start to progress making new all-time highs resuming the Santa rally (first chart).
Bearish scenario: Intermediate-iii wave topped at 2665, and an Irregular Minute-b wave of Intermediate-iv topped at 2672. If so, Intermediate-iv downtrend ought to be underway heading towards the 2575 pivot. Scenario gains credence once 2625 is taken out. (second chart).
Good summary abc, thanks.
BITCOIN
Two speculative scenarios:
1. (first chart) The bitcoin bubble ended at the 12 Dec 2017 high, and a bear market is underway.
2. (second chart) Cycle-5→Primary-v is still underway and either completes at:
a) 18,770 (on Bitfinex) where Primary-v equals Primary-i wave; or,
b) 31,800 (on Bitfinex) where Primary-v extends, and equals 1.618 times the length of Primary-i through to Primary-iii wave.
—Taking out the 10 Dec 2017 low would qualify scenario 1.
—Taking out the 12 Dec 2017 high would qualify scenario 2.
Next bitcoin update will be when either one of the above scenarios occur.
Spx correction over
enough for a 4?
Nano 2 maybe?
Maybe Pico 2 of Nano 3 of Micro 5 of minute v.
lol
yes so far
dont know
but ext nicked on es and spx
that tells me that final rally is coming up
new high or failing rally ?
Why final rally?
final rally before ext fails with a vengence
if buyers were strong the extension would not be violated
they would front run it to not miss the next rally
I have 2 lines a bit lower down but im starting to add again
Oil to 60/62…then a try for 66…UWT
Gold to 1600….UGLD
UGAZ
RUT to outperform…TNA to 96
If CL breaks 62-63 area – there is nothing that stands in front of it until it hits 90!!! 60-62 is a no brainer but then either buckle up or a significant swooooosh!
Damn UVXY – no fear, looks like everybody is waiting to BTFD.
still bearish below 57.80
it has a lot to prove yet
still just a daytrade until it closes above the BRICK wall at 59
Disagree re Oil After 61 to 62 WTI crde to drop to $15 per bbl. Buy SCO when crude between 61 and 62 IMHO Rabbit
Stalling looks like pullback 2620s
Yep, holding short to around this number.
Phil, are you back into UWT?
looking for spike up now or i am taking profits
SPIKE !……….. raised stops on uco now
bull above 56.83 now
Nearly 2% with low volume? No chance! We grind on up.
Are you buying any RUT down here?
amazing rut has given back all the gains since Flynn news broke
Can anyone post up the pivots every few days?
market looks like it did when it dropped to 2605. A sick bull up 80 negative up 35 just bucking all stops before they drop it. I put a stop on my short at where i bought it 30.28. just in case im wrong. my last post for the day so good luck all. I must humble myself even more by golfing. I suck
hit 2nd vst support line at 2661 ish, as always have to see what happens now
me thinks that string on the yo yo is abot to break and we swooosh
bearish below 2671.5 esh8
but can it stick ?
no shorting for me till ext long fails
yes the uptrend line is stopping spx for now
but do you really believe da boyze are not going to spike it up
to target at 2682 ….. and upper boll band .
to pop the top ………………….
before we flop ?
Phil where’s your Dow extension long support?
dow cash ext long support is just under 24000
again … dow also came within 80 points of target
da boyze probably want to suck in some shorts
and burn them on a spike to target
is CL forming a head and shoulders with $59 as peak and big drop coming ???
frustration and dead money till the extension long fails in CL
bought UWT this morning but only for day trade
yes…. can get to 57.32 to 57 .62……..
just looked again… could be running triangle just completed
could get it to ext target of 60.52
going to watch it closer now
CL is still in daily longs. Ignoring the noise (scalping 😉 ) in UWT since yesterday with a small loss. Target as Phil specified. I’m also in UVXY for a couple of days.
out of UWT at $20.96 small profit of $480 but not bad for 2 hours work
just bought more UWT
ha … long from 56.50
i see the triangle as A $55.85 B $58.52 C $56.10 just completed. D and E to follow D to maybe $58 range and E down to $57 then up to new highs ??
i’m not saying this is right but i did stay at a Holiday inn last night
BJ, using the 2606 low as wave iv and this is wave 5. some are discounting that move as a wave? But if this move down does continue I see as low as 2636 as possible bottom for D and then with E up.
2636 meets the guideline and rules of a contracting ED and also is within range of my 2640ish target
if the waves maintain a constant relationship then 2682 area should the that E terminates.
trade plan for thursday: https://easytrade2.wordpress.com/2017/12/05/december-2017/comment-page-1/#comment-138
Anyone familiar with the “Edwards Funnel” and where to research it? Maybe this guy just made it up, but it’s pretty (and fits my seasonal preconception on gold) so I like it.
Looks like the Converging section of a Converging-Diverging nozzle …
http://www.engapplets.vt.edu/fluids/CDnozzle/cdinfo.html
..some propulsion would be welcome….
TNA, UGAZ, UWT, UGLD, ARKK, ARKQ….and UVXY maybe…
But of course! The converging diverging nozzle configuration.
Mary773 … WTH knows; I’m probably wrong, BUT there is this scramjet intake …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scramjet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-51_Waverider
https://www.space.com/8497-air-force-51-scramjet-sets-record-longest-hypersonic-flight.html
… Use to work in a related area … 🙂
There is a resemblance. That Boeing x-51 also is shaped a little like the mystery object currently floating in space.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/891121/Stephen-Hawking-UFO-space-NASA-solar-system-seti-alien-cigar-shaped-Oumuamua
ES Morning Update December 14th 2017 – http://reddragonleo.com/2017/12/14/es-morning-update-december-14th-2017/
GC
extension long tight parameters
buy 1256.5
bail out 1255
just watching it now
1254.70 is the 50% LONG …15 minute chart
and its the retest of the broken ext short at 1254
all very technical
ext failed
bearish below 1256.4
no buying
if 1247.2 fails……………. new lows for gold
My only 2cents is, this move up has not been impulsive. Over a week to go 47 points. Normal wave 3 have plus 30 point days. This is still chop and short covering into the close most days. Which leads me to beleive we are in a final wave of some sort or my edt. Which soul surfer has ending between 2675-2720. I was thinking more like 2671-2676. Either way I have a hard time with this being a micro 3wave and expect this uptrend to end soon.
We shall see. Good luck all
whatever it is it can continue to grind up to 2679 until 2665 fails
looks like frustration for bulls and bears in es
better and easier pickins elsewhere
NEWS READ ALL ABOUT IT!!
Hook:Tsakalotos Greek minister of Finance rings closing bell NYSE…
Bait:Financial times analyst and I quote ”Greek Market may be THE Long play of 2018”
Fact: https://invst.ly/635jj
tony called this a new bull market in 2014
good thing i was only day trading it
or i would have been wiped out
DH to the rescue
my wife said ……….. are you crazy ??? buying greek stocks ?
Cinton son in law founded a hedge fund ”specializing” Bullish Greek stocks bout that time too we all know what happened to that shenanigan interestingly his dad did time for running a Ponzi back in 2000.
disagree. I think your desire for a pattern is clouding what you want to see. Look at Tony’s 60 minute chart. The move from 2625 looks no different (angle/speed) than sections of the orange 3. Price will determine the waves. It hasn’t yet.
maybe, i see 3 possible patterns or outcomes.
1 minute 5 equals 1 as Phil said at 2683.
2. and EDT as soul surfer mentioned ending at 2675-2720
3. minute 5 is extending in 5 micro waves up for minute 5
the 3rd i have the least confidence in, but over 2683 leaves only 2 counts higher.
5th waves tend to be the shortest, So i remain short spxs from Monday at 30.28.looking for int 4 to begin very very shortly.
good luck lunker and all
Namaste Tony
Namaste Everyone..
Tony…wishing you best of recovery..
Thanks for being there..
tony,
best of health and happiness!
….and many thanks for all you have done for us!
SPX correction to 2656 as an abc
a completed , b&c to go before uptrend resumption
No Raymond James charts today.
Thanks Chris Kimble
Thanks Tony for everything……and thanks everyone xx
Looks like a good, long term pair trade to play the inevitable regression to the mean: long SPY, short SMH
Tony, my prayers are with you. this blog has been a fantastic forum for learning and I hope that does not change anytime soon.
been a long while since I’ve felt like posting. dislike that I have to agree with Gundlach, but the commodities (namely precious metals) have some immense potential right now. the price targets of the metals would make me sound borderline insane if I said them aloud. big time reversal today? or am I about to get whacked? stay tuned.
Well stockop, make yourself feel better by agreeing with Ray Dalio…increased his gold holdings sevenfold.
I thought I was the only one long gold on the forum, but love your company….x
i had to check my comments it had been so long. last time i commented we agreed on oil. glad to have ur company too. need some people with big money backing our opinion lol (dalio)
Thanks Christine, wishing Tony a quick recovery and return to good health.
SPY musings… ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/1ykMMgWF/
Thanks 123, Phil, Asa, and others for providing your opinions of the current market environment. Kinda surprised Newbie has been out for so long. I hope Tony is recovering well.
So what ever happened to Tonys 100 point snp pullback
Go back and read what Tony wrote.
At the same time show some respect.
Vive its a valid question
Alsp you asked Tony if downtrend would last until 12/18,well no downtrend yet,,,blown call
Strange posts Pooch. You’ve been here long enough to know that Tony doesn’t make calls. He quantifies the trends as they occur. Last Wednesday he said that he would mark a tentative INT 3 if price went below 2605. Otherwise there were no calls.
Nope your wrong ,he stated 100 point pullback
We all saw he wrote IF this was INT4 the pullback would be 100 to 120 points. That’s not a call. He didn’t call for a downtrend. Those are your words.
“The market opened at SPX 2625, bounced, then retested 2625 before edging higher. Have seen subtle double bottoms like this hold. Especially since the decline from SPX 2665 is within one point of a 38.2% pullback of the advance from SPX 2557. The advance off the SPX 2625 low, however, was not impressive: 2634-2626-2634. But have seen this type of churning at a low set up a higher opening the next day. Key level going forward is obviously SPX 2625. Overall, it still looks like traders are in profit taking mode which could lead to the Int. iv correction. All they might need is some sort of catalyst to push things lower. If so would expect a 100 – 120 point decline from the all-time high for Int. iv. The two fours: Minute iv and Micro 4 should provide support.”
Tony said this: “… which could lead to the Int. iv correction….” A clear-as-a-bell if-then statement…did you pass basic logic?
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped ?
LONG TERM: uptrend
Tony didn’t call a downtrend. Tony said IF this is INT 4 than he expected it to be 100 to 120 points
The DOW and SPX continue with new all-time highs, suggesting Minute-v→Micro-3 is underway. Since the uptrend began from the 2625 low, pullbacks have been limited to under 0.30%. However, today’s pullback at the close has been over 0.30%. This could suggest Micro-1→Nano-i completed at today’s high and now Micro-1→Nano-ii is underway (first chart, bullish scenario).
The NDX and COMPQ are yet to make new all-time highs. Therefore, it may be cautious to suggest the DOW and SPX are undergoing Irregular b-wave rallies. For the SPX, the allowable extent of an Irregular b-wave rally (believed to be under OEW) would be at 2690 which is 1.618 times the length of a-wave (second chart, bearish scenario).
In summary, the bullish scenario gains credence if either the NDX and COMPQ indices make new all-time highs, or if the SPX exceeds 2690.
CORRECTION (first paragraph): This could suggest Micro-3→Nano-i completed at today’s high and now Micro-3→Nano-ii is underway (first chart, bullish scenario).
123abc …
Enjoy reading your posts…question, have you considered the attached wave count as your alternate count or does this count violate any OEW rules/laws?
Chart… https://gyazo.com/cc4c1264029e47dc6a04ee91b57720cb
asa
this is the count i am working with as my primary count
looking for just a little more upside to 2682
where minute 5 = minute 1
basically exactly what you proposed………..
see… great minds think alike ………LOL
momentum peak outside boll band is wave 3
now price peak inside bollband is wave 5 running out of gas
of course if we blast thru target at 2682
123s more bullish scenario will take the lead
I agree!
Tony counts five completed waves up from Minute-iv low at 2557 as follows:
2590-2578-2658-2606-2665
So, whether those five waves have completed all of Minute-v, or just Micro-1 of Minute-v remains to be seen.
Regrettably, I’m not a student of OEW (yet!), so cannot comment on rules. However, I would say that if Intermediate-iii did complete at 2665 and an Irregular b-wave is currently underway, then the overall outcome would be no different to your count.
ciao abc … penso il conteggio SPX sia così : https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_t8jm7pTJeNcDl3VG1VRFQxVGc/view?usp=sharing
BITCOIN : Cycle-5→Primary-v is underway.
It appears both Primary-i and Primary-iii of Cycle-5 did not extend.
EW guidelines suggest:
—If neither wave-1 or wave-3 extend, expect wave-5 to be 1.618 times the net of waves-1 through to wave-3.
—The time to complete wave-1 through to wave-3, is equal to, the time to complete the end of wave-3 to the end of wave-5.
This suggests Cycle-5→Primary-v ends the bitcoin bubble at 31,800 on 3rd Jan 2018 —highly speculative guesswork of course!
thanks need to be careful being short
Tomorrow is “Easy Peasy” down Day for ES : )
One of the things I am grateful for this year on Tony’s blog is the added interest in actual trading. It seems like one of the challenges with this kind of blog is that you get a lot of top callers/bottom pickers. Some of it is entertaining, some of it is analysis, and some of it just a waste of time. I really appreciate those of you who have attempted to use Tony’s analysis as a backdrop to your trading method. This is precisely how I think EW was intended to be used, but has become muddled as some pay sites have attempted to use EW in isolation with fib levels as a reason for entry and risk management. I have never seen that work successfully, although Phil’s extension long/short approach has certainly been working well in this uni-directional SPX index.
Anyway, thanks again to those of you who have added that value. It’s kept me coming back and thinking about what you’re looking at.
chrisk — Good post. Thinking the same thing myself.
Hi All..been very business with my house renovation renovation project…not trading much, as I am in/out of the house all day. DH has an analysis that could dovetail nicely into Tony C. analysis and I wanted to share this analysis with you.
The new line in the sand is /ES 2665.15. A break of this support level, opens the door to 2658 which is only mild support. However, the next “algorithm support” is /ES 2635, the full 50% measured move LONG. Certainly, if 2635 trades, I believe intermediate wave iii will be confirmed by Tony C.
However, the tape is bullish on the 15 minute and daily trend. As long as /ES stays above 2665.15 the 2 profit targets are noted on the chart.
BTW, as I mentioned to you last week, the big boys and this algorithm ignored last Friday’s trading activity on the “ABC Fake news report of Candidate Trump…./notice spike down/”
Notes on chart to save space…. https://gyazo.com/5543a36c4126d024bc989b673488ae70
Before Holly aka Gary responds about his calls in 2016 that everyone ignored and what he apparently got banned from the blog for. Then apparently Tony let him back a year later.
I’ve probably insulted 50% of this blog in some way or another and not once have I ever been banned. Which means he never got banned. He/she just says that for attention.
The host is most gracious and dearly missed. We all hope and pray he returns soon. Please do not tarnish the blog with your flip flop BS! Had enough of that from JK.
I know some have been banned
I’d just let it go
‘Tis the Season…
I’m good with you vive, you bastard! 🙂
It’s wanka! Get it right ! 😉
Well, today couldn’t have worked out better for my plan. Yesterday we closed on the lower half of the range, today opened positive closed red, sets up a big down day foe me Thursday, Friday. Also, my opinion today ended the E of the edt. If I’m wrong I’m wrong, but I couldn’t draw it up any better over the last two days.
Best of lucks and enjoy your evening, see what tomorrow brings us
A freebie. DJIA new target 25,113 ESZ17 still looking for 2690.25 updated today. Dec 7th post still valid.
holly
has it been 3 months already ?
What a clown.
SPX -D with yesterday’s high and an intraday double top with -D and an H&S yesterday and today. Target 2656-60.
2625-2672
a drop to 2659/60 and over sold RSI should be close to the minimum needed to quantify the next wave
C=1.62A=2659
pivot 2656
38% 2654
50% 2549
pivot 2646
62% 2543
SPX close today 2666.66
you saw the Dow high 😉
no i didnt….
..but if it closes at 2666.66 i will show you why
2667.16 (4x) or 2666.79 😀
Tony……………
get well soon …………..
i have faith that you will return to good health
why???? its 3 :16 pm
Allego grafico del Dow Jones orario : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E1G83QvtAwx0G8stScUz-j9nU_CQgdLG/view?usp=sharing
Grazie.
Don’t really follow interest rate thought dollar was suppose to spike up not?
did fed raise rates ?
anyway dollar going up with rate hikes is an old wives tale
Phil come over to Lunker page. This page will expire soon for posts.https://lunker1.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/tonys-oew-group-feel-free-to-post-here/
ok
Sell the news thing! Dxy: 93 – 95 then in 2018 sinks to 87!