Weekend Update

Tony is going to be absent for a little while. There are some health concerns we are dealing with as some of you may know. For the moment he does not have access to a computer. I will keep you updated throughout the week with any news. Thank you for your patience and all the well wishes.

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404 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. 123 abc says:


    Bullish scenario: Micro-3→Nano-ii pullback is currently underway which ought to find support at the 2646 pivot range (-/+ 7 points). At 2648, the pullback would mark a 50% retracement. A deeper pullback to the lower end of the 2646 pivot would fill a gap at 2640. Either way once the pullback finds support, then Micro-3→Nano-iii would start to progress making new all-time highs resuming the Santa rally (first chart).

    Bearish scenario: Intermediate-iii wave topped at 2665, and an Irregular Minute-b wave of Intermediate-iv topped at 2672. If so, Intermediate-iv downtrend ought to be underway heading towards the 2575 pivot. Scenario gains credence once 2625 is taken out. (second chart).

  2. 123 abc says:


    Two speculative scenarios:

    1. (first chart) The bitcoin bubble ended at the 12 Dec 2017 high, and a bear market is underway.

    2. (second chart) Cycle-5→Primary-v is still underway and either completes at:
    a) 18,770 (on Bitfinex) where Primary-v equals Primary-i wave; or,
    b) 31,800 (on Bitfinex) where Primary-v extends, and equals 1.618 times the length of Primary-i through to Primary-iii wave.

    —Taking out the 10 Dec 2017 low would qualify scenario 1.
    —Taking out the 12 Dec 2017 high would qualify scenario 2.

    Next bitcoin update will be when either one of the above scenarios occur.

  3. jobjas says:

    Spx correction over

  4. micky says:

    enough for a 4?

  5. fionamargaret says:

    Oil to 60/62…then a try for 66…UWT
    Gold to 1600….UGLD
    RUT to outperform…TNA to 96

    • kvilia says:

      If CL breaks 62-63 area – there is nothing that stands in front of it until it hits 90!!! 60-62 is a no brainer but then either buckle up or a significant swooooosh!
      Damn UVXY – no fear, looks like everybody is waiting to BTFD.

      • phil1247 says:

        still bearish below 57.80
        it has a lot to prove yet
        still just a daytrade until it closes above the BRICK wall at 59

    • rabbittrader1 says:

      Disagree re Oil After 61 to 62 WTI crde to drop to $15 per bbl. Buy SCO when crude between 61 and 62 IMHO Rabbit

  6. fotis2 says:

    Stalling looks like pullback 2620s


    Can anyone post up the pivots every few days?

  8. market looks like it did when it dropped to 2605. A sick bull up 80 negative up 35 just bucking all stops before they drop it. I put a stop on my short at where i bought it 30.28. just in case im wrong. my last post for the day so good luck all. I must humble myself even more by golfing. I suck

  9. micky says:

    hit 2nd vst support line at 2661 ish, as always have to see what happens now

  10. me thinks that string on the yo yo is abot to break and we swooosh

    • phil1247 says:

      bearish below 2671.5 esh8
      but can it stick ?
      no shorting for me till ext long fails

      • phil1247 says:

        yes the uptrend line is stopping spx for now
        but do you really believe da boyze are not going to spike it up
        to target at 2682 ….. and upper boll band .

        to pop the top ………………….
        before we flop ?

      • vivelaamo says:

        Phil where’s your Dow extension long support?

        • phil1247 says:

          dow cash ext long support is just under 24000
          again … dow also came within 80 points of target
          da boyze probably want to suck in some shorts
          and burn them on a spike to target

  11. purplember says:

    is CL forming a head and shoulders with $59 as peak and big drop coming ???

  12. gary61b says:

    BJ, using the 2606 low as wave iv and this is wave 5. some are discounting that move as a wave? But if this move down does continue I see as low as 2636 as possible bottom for D and then with E up.

  13. Mary773 says:

    Anyone familiar with the “Edwards Funnel” and where to research it? Maybe this guy just made it up, but it’s pretty (and fits my seasonal preconception on gold) so I like it.

  14. phil1247 says:


    extension long tight parameters
    buy 1256.5
    bail out 1255
    just watching it now

  15. My only 2cents is, this move up has not been impulsive. Over a week to go 47 points. Normal wave 3 have plus 30 point days. This is still chop and short covering into the close most days. Which leads me to beleive we are in a final wave of some sort or my edt. Which soul surfer has ending between 2675-2720. I was thinking more like 2671-2676. Either way I have a hard time with this being a micro 3wave and expect this uptrend to end soon.
    We shall see. Good luck all

    • phil1247 says:

      whatever it is it can continue to grind up to 2679 until 2665 fails
      looks like frustration for bulls and bears in es
      better and easier pickins elsewhere

      • fotis2 says:

        Hook:Tsakalotos Greek minister of Finance rings closing bell NYSE…
        Bait:Financial times analyst and I quote ”Greek Market may be THE Long play of 2018”
        Fact: https://invst.ly/635jj

        • phil1247 says:

          tony called this a new bull market in 2014
          good thing i was only day trading it
          or i would have been wiped out
          DH to the rescue
          my wife said ……….. are you crazy ??? buying greek stocks ?

          • fotis2 says:

            Cinton son in law founded a hedge fund ”specializing” Bullish Greek stocks bout that time too we all know what happened to that shenanigan interestingly his dad did time for running a Ponzi back in 2000.

    • lunker1 says:

      disagree. I think your desire for a pattern is clouding what you want to see. Look at Tony’s 60 minute chart. The move from 2625 looks no different (angle/speed) than sections of the orange 3. Price will determine the waves. It hasn’t yet.

      • maybe, i see 3 possible patterns or outcomes.
        1 minute 5 equals 1 as Phil said at 2683.
        2. and EDT as soul surfer mentioned ending at 2675-2720
        3. minute 5 is extending in 5 micro waves up for minute 5
        the 3rd i have the least confidence in, but over 2683 leaves only 2 counts higher.
        5th waves tend to be the shortest, So i remain short spxs from Monday at 30.28.looking for int 4 to begin very very shortly.
        good luck lunker and all

  16. amittsite says:

    Namaste Tony
    Namaste Everyone..
    Tony…wishing you best of recovery..
    Thanks for being there..

  17. floyd drummer says:

    best of health and happiness!
    ….and many thanks for all you have done for us!

  18. jobjas says:

    SPX correction to 2656 as an abc
    a completed , b&c to go before uptrend resumption

  19. fionamargaret says:

    No Raymond James charts today.

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony for everything……and thanks everyone xx

  20. stockop says:

    Tony, my prayers are with you. this blog has been a fantastic forum for learning and I hope that does not change anytime soon.

    been a long while since I’ve felt like posting. dislike that I have to agree with Gundlach, but the commodities (namely precious metals) have some immense potential right now. the price targets of the metals would make me sound borderline insane if I said them aloud. big time reversal today? or am I about to get whacked? stay tuned.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well stockop, make yourself feel better by agreeing with Ray Dalio…increased his gold holdings sevenfold.
      I thought I was the only one long gold on the forum, but love your company….x

      • stockop says:

        i had to check my comments it had been so long. last time i commented we agreed on oil. glad to have ur company too. need some people with big money backing our opinion lol (dalio)

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Christine, wishing Tony a quick recovery and return to good health.

    SPY musings… ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/1ykMMgWF/

  22. Thanks 123, Phil, Asa, and others for providing your opinions of the current market environment. Kinda surprised Newbie has been out for so long. I hope Tony is recovering well.

  23. pooch77 says:

    So what ever happened to Tonys 100 point snp pullback

    • vivelaamo says:

      Go back and read what Tony wrote.

      At the same time show some respect.

      • pooch77 says:

        Vive its a valid question

      • pooch77 says:

        Alsp you asked Tony if downtrend would last until 12/18,well no downtrend yet,,,blown call

        • lunker1 says:

          Strange posts Pooch. You’ve been here long enough to know that Tony doesn’t make calls. He quantifies the trends as they occur. Last Wednesday he said that he would mark a tentative INT 3 if price went below 2605. Otherwise there were no calls.

          • pooch77 says:

            Nope your wrong ,he stated 100 point pullback

            • lunker1 says:

              We all saw he wrote IF this was INT4 the pullback would be 100 to 120 points. That’s not a call. He didn’t call for a downtrend. Those are your words.

            • lunker1 says:

              “The market opened at SPX 2625, bounced, then retested 2625 before edging higher. Have seen subtle double bottoms like this hold. Especially since the decline from SPX 2665 is within one point of a 38.2% pullback of the advance from SPX 2557. The advance off the SPX 2625 low, however, was not impressive: 2634-2626-2634. But have seen this type of churning at a low set up a higher opening the next day. Key level going forward is obviously SPX 2625. Overall, it still looks like traders are in profit taking mode which could lead to the Int. iv correction. All they might need is some sort of catalyst to push things lower. If so would expect a 100 – 120 point decline from the all-time high for Int. iv. The two fours: Minute iv and Micro 4 should provide support.”

    • lunker1 says:

      MEDIUM TERM: uptrend topped ?
      LONG TERM: uptrend

      Tony didn’t call a downtrend. Tony said IF this is INT 4 than he expected it to be 100 to 120 points

  24. 123 abc says:

    The DOW and SPX continue with new all-time highs, suggesting Minute-v→Micro-3 is underway. Since the uptrend began from the 2625 low, pullbacks have been limited to under 0.30%. However, today’s pullback at the close has been over 0.30%. This could suggest Micro-1→Nano-i completed at today’s high and now Micro-1→Nano-ii is underway (first chart, bullish scenario).

    The NDX and COMPQ are yet to make new all-time highs. Therefore, it may be cautious to suggest the DOW and SPX are undergoing Irregular b-wave rallies. For the SPX, the allowable extent of an Irregular b-wave rally (believed to be under OEW) would be at 2690 which is 1.618 times the length of a-wave (second chart, bearish scenario).

    In summary, the bullish scenario gains credence if either the NDX and COMPQ indices make new all-time highs, or if the SPX exceeds 2690.

  25. 123 abc says:

    BITCOIN : Cycle-5→Primary-v is underway.

    It appears both Primary-i and Primary-iii of Cycle-5 did not extend.

    EW guidelines suggest:

    —If neither wave-1 or wave-3 extend, expect wave-5 to be 1.618 times the net of waves-1 through to wave-3.
    —The time to complete wave-1 through to wave-3, is equal to, the time to complete the end of wave-3 to the end of wave-5.

    This suggests Cycle-5→Primary-v ends the bitcoin bubble at 31,800 on 3rd Jan 2018 —highly speculative guesswork of course!

  26. thoth8 says:

    Tomorrow is “Easy Peasy” down Day for ES : )

  27. chrisk44342 says:

    One of the things I am grateful for this year on Tony’s blog is the added interest in actual trading. It seems like one of the challenges with this kind of blog is that you get a lot of top callers/bottom pickers. Some of it is entertaining, some of it is analysis, and some of it just a waste of time. I really appreciate those of you who have attempted to use Tony’s analysis as a backdrop to your trading method. This is precisely how I think EW was intended to be used, but has become muddled as some pay sites have attempted to use EW in isolation with fib levels as a reason for entry and risk management. I have never seen that work successfully, although Phil’s extension long/short approach has certainly been working well in this uni-directional SPX index.

    Anyway, thanks again to those of you who have added that value. It’s kept me coming back and thinking about what you’re looking at.

  28. Hi All..been very business with my house renovation renovation project…not trading much, as I am in/out of the house all day. DH has an analysis that could dovetail nicely into Tony C. analysis and I wanted to share this analysis with you.

    The new line in the sand is /ES 2665.15. A break of this support level, opens the door to 2658 which is only mild support. However, the next “algorithm support” is /ES 2635, the full 50% measured move LONG. Certainly, if 2635 trades, I believe intermediate wave iii will be confirmed by Tony C.

    However, the tape is bullish on the 15 minute and daily trend. As long as /ES stays above 2665.15 the 2 profit targets are noted on the chart.

    BTW, as I mentioned to you last week, the big boys and this algorithm ignored last Friday’s trading activity on the “ABC Fake news report of Candidate Trump…./notice spike down/”

    Notes on chart to save space…. https://gyazo.com/5543a36c4126d024bc989b673488ae70

  29. vivelaamo says:

    Before Holly aka Gary responds about his calls in 2016 that everyone ignored and what he apparently got banned from the blog for. Then apparently Tony let him back a year later.

    I’ve probably insulted 50% of this blog in some way or another and not once have I ever been banned. Which means he never got banned. He/she just says that for attention.

    The host is most gracious and dearly missed. We all hope and pray he returns soon. Please do not tarnish the blog with your flip flop BS! Had enough of that from JK.

  30. Well, today couldn’t have worked out better for my plan. Yesterday we closed on the lower half of the range, today opened positive closed red, sets up a big down day foe me Thursday, Friday. Also, my opinion today ended the E of the edt. If I’m wrong I’m wrong, but I couldn’t draw it up any better over the last two days.
    Best of lucks and enjoy your evening, see what tomorrow brings us

  31. Holly Silver says:

    A freebie. DJIA new target 25,113 ESZ17 still looking for 2690.25 updated today. Dec 7th post still valid.

  32. lunker1 says:

    SPX -D with yesterday’s high and an intraday double top with -D and an H&S yesterday and today. Target 2656-60.

    • lunker1 says:

      a drop to 2659/60 and over sold RSI should be close to the minimum needed to quantify the next wave

      pivot 2656
      38% 2654
      50% 2549
      pivot 2646
      62% 2543

  33. phil1247 says:

    SPX close today 2666.66

  34. phil1247 says:


    get well soon …………..
    i have faith that you will return to good health
    why???? its 3 :16 pm

  35. fotis2 says:

    Don’t really follow interest rate thought dollar was suppose to spike up not?

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