Monday update

SHORT TERM: flat open, new highs, then pullback, DOW +23

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were mixed overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2602. In the opening minutes the SPX rallied to a new high at 2606, then began to pullback. At 10am new home sales were reported higher. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 2599 and then tried to rally. By 2pm the SPX hit 2603, then closed at 2601.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.05, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then consumer confidence and FED governor Powell’s confirmation hearing at 10am.

Unchanged open, marginal new high (SPX 2606), small pullback (SPX 2599), bounce, then narrow trading range. Short term count from Minute iv SPX 2557 notched higher a bit: 2590-2578-2606. Starting to see some simple downgrades in isolated Tech stocks taking about 10% out of the stock. When traders decide to take profits, after enough of these downgrades, we’ll be in a correction. Short term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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638 Responses to Monday update

  1. Anonymous says:

    After seeing the huge gains in VXX Thursday and Friday, I figured someone much smarter than I knew something was up. So I bought TZA calls for .10 and sold them for .49 during the downdraft. Now waiting for an indication that Intermediate IV is starting. Meanwhile I continue to accumulate GDX and UNG. I am really glad you are back, Tony! Thanks for all your analyses!

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    • allen kimble says:

      Good job on that notice, however Intermediate IV isn’t until Jan 2018. No way the big boys let that happen in December. Thus, you’ll likely to have a wave 4 of minor 5 into mid December followed by the last rally.

      GDX? I’d wait on that. A big dump is coming. It will be a fake breakdown, but nonetheless it will scare alot of people of out the metals just in time for the seasonal low around X-mas/new year. Fundamentally, tax bill passed this weekend, flynn was fake news, economy doing good, the stock market is bubbling etc…I could go on but I think the fed is not going to be nice to the Metals Come December 13th. You’ve got the right idea about the metals though, just a bit early.

      Cheers,

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      • tommyboys says:

        This market will not put in a serious correction until the A/D negatively diverges with the indices for at LEAST a month or two – if not 6+. So no correction at this point till at least late Jan/Feb and pushing out weekly.

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  2. tony caldaro says:

    Back at the Ranch.
    Will be posting a weekend update today after chart review.
    Clearly a wild market week.

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  3. amittsite says:

    Hello Everyone.. Namaste Tony
    Namaste to all here..
    As I had suggested before 2544 won’t be breached(bottomed out at 2557) and multiple waves will finish at 2632..the whole structure from Orange coloured(micro)3 is a triangle which broke out..tested the upper range of triangle on Friday lows and successfully went back up..Now it’s essential for spx to start trading above 2650..so 2600 odd is new floor now…we should see 2750 pretty soon..
    Rest I leave for the Great Man Mr.Anthony Caldaro to elaborate..
    Have a Nice weekend and week ahead..

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