Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2579. After a slightly higher open on Monday the market gapped up on Tuesday. The rally continued through Wednesday and Friday, with only a 6 point pullback all week, to reach a new all-time high at SPX 2604. A dip into the close ended the week at SPX 2602. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.9%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.55%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: durable goods and consumer sentiment. On the uptick: leading indicators, existing home sales and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports include Q3 GDP and the FED’s Beige book. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The long-term bull market count remains unchanged since its early beginnings. A Major wave 1 bull market, consisting of five Intermediate waves, is underway. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Intermediate wave iii, as is often the case, then divided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 ended in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 ended in the spring of 2017. An extended Minor wave 5 has been underway since then.

When Minor 5 does end, it will also end Intermediate wave iii. Then an Intermediate wave iv correction will follow. After that Intermediate wave v will take the market to all-time new highs. The bull market appears to have quite a way to go in time and price.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The market has been experiencing its longest uptrend since 2006/2007: seven months. It has been quite long as far as uptrends go, and quite complex. While the market continues to make new highs, extending the uptrend, we are seeing a three-fold Fibonacci area that could offer significant resistance in the days/weeks ahead to end the uptrend.

Normally a cluster of OEW pivots is all that is required to end an uptrend. The cluster just ahead is OEW 2632, 2646 and 2656. Another resistance area that fits into this analysis, is the length of previous uptrends within the bull market. From the February 2016 low the two largest uptrends have been 301 points and 317 points. This gives us a resistance range of SPX 2630-2646. The third resistance area has to do with the internals of the uptrend. The three rising Minute waves all divided into five Micro waves. Minute i’s three rising Micro waves: 77-93-43, and Minute iii’s three rising Micro waves: 83-161-53. Notice the last wave in each sequence ended between 0.56% and 0.64% of the first wave. When we look at the uptrend as a whole, since Minute v is not likely to offer all these Micro wave subdivisions, we have: 125-189-xxxx. Using the same percentage relationships, the last wave between 0.56% and 0.64% of the first, we arrive with this range SPX 2627-2637. Notice all three ranges overlap in the SPX 2630’s. Should this area end the uptrend and Intermediate wave iii. The likely decline for an Intermediate wave iv correction is 70-100 SPX points.

SHORT TERM

After completing Minute waves i and ii in June/July, Minute waves iii and iv in November, Minute wave v has been underway since the SPX 2557 low. Thus far we can count three waves up from that low: 2590-2578-2604. These waves may be of Pico or Nano degree. But the analysis above suggests they could be of Micro degree as well. Let’s see what the market looks like technically, when it reaches the OEW 2632 pivot range.

Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2646 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence, but no pullback in price as of yet. Best to your trading in the coming week!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net 0.9% gain.

European markets were all higher on the week and gained 0.9% as well.

The DJ World index gained 1.3%, and the NYSE gained 1.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are trying to establish an uptrend and ended flat on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 4.0%.

Gold remains in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD is now in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: new home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, and FED chair nomination hearing for FED governor Powell. Wednesday: Q3 GDP (est. 3.0%), pending home sales, the Beige book, and economic outlook testimony from FED chair Yellen . Thursday: weekly jobless claims, personal income/spending, and the Chicago PMI. Friday: ISM , construction spending, and auto sales.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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89 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Holly Silver says:

    Your (TONY’s) 2630’s scenario seems to conform with mine but with a slightly different possibility on the downslope. 100 point drop from there is your model for a corrective move. Mine starts there but most likely morphs into a 500 point variety. I don’t know if your EW Chart can accept such a move but I give it better than 50 percent chance of happening.

    To be deleted immediately because Tony prefers his dream world political outcome. See ya!!!

    Like

    • Holly Silver says:

      My flippant remark was assumed to be short lived. Expected and still expect my post will be gone soon. In any event I still believe only a Mueller (bombshell) announcement hitting all top staffers with explicit or implicit implication on trumps shortened tenure will cause such a corrective move. Without such charges we stretch this wave higher still.

      I still see timeline as hitting 2634 or so by end of this week. A 100 point drop or a much deeper one depends on Mueller’s timing. Don’t believe pure chartists interpretation that all is preordained.

      Like

      • aahmichael says:

        The market couldn’t care less about Trump. All it cares about is a corporate tax cut. If it had cared anything about Trump, then it would still be locked limit down since election night. At this point, if Trump got indicted or impeached the market would probably rally.

        Like

      • H D says:

        At least you acknowledge it’s flippant. The Trump crash already happened! Lock limit down – 5% hit. Sorry you missed it…..move on!
        Serious question though for you crash callers. Do you ever get tired of saying the same thing every day? You are on a technical trading site of a master elliotician who has perfectly called the rally for 8 years. Do you actually think that if and when the market characteristics change that he and all of his readers will miss that?
        Please stop dumbing down the room.

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        • vivelaamo says:

          +1

          I’ve said before the constant crash callers are pretty disrespectful to the host if they think he would completely miss it. The other regular callers seem to have gone quiet though.

          Like

          • Holly Silver says:

            Being a non-techie I can say with no modesty I got some pretty impressive turns correctly.
            The GOP passes the tax cuts and it means they are as disgustingly unethical as trump himself. Just look at the CBO scoring. Attacking the 10K to 20K earners is as disgusting as it gets.

            I guess I have to keep proving my worth. Perhaps my late 2015 call was a fluke. TONY and a majority of you were calling me a Pollyanna while you anticipated wave 5 ending. Now it seems you are calling me a Cassandra?

            Like

    • vivelaamo says:

      JK posts about 80% crashes so I doubt your 500 point drop post is going to be deleted. Tony says himself opinions make markets. You called the Bull market perfectly until Trump got elected and then you fell apart due to your political views. It’s a shame as I enjoyed your posts before Trump.

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  2. fotis2 says:

    Looks like the $ caught a bid and the EUR a sell interesting week ahead Tore.

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  3. scottycj1 says:

    Switch the word Levee to Market

    Like

  4. vivelaamo says:

    Out of all longs now in indices. Rally’s are getting sold. Wait for more weakness before buying.

    Cable on the other hand is pure BTFD!!

    Like

  5. fionamargaret says:

    Oil (UWT) is up to 60/62….then to 65/66
    Gold is up (UGLD)…

    Like

  6. CampFreddie says:

    Nov 20th 2010 -1 Bitcoin = 28 cents & 1 oz Gold = $1350
    …………..2017 Bitcoin = $8200 & Gold = $1285
    = Prepare shorting strategy for Bitcoin for when Futs are available. aimho.

    Like

  7. tommyboys says:

    Insiders remain bullish for sure…

    Like

  8. phil1247 says:

    CL

    kvilia …
    you beat me by 3 cents on the sale of UWT last week… nice job !
    CL= moneymaker
    are you waiting for the
    SWWWWOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHH down to 55.96 to rebuy
    or are you swearing off CL for good ?

    Like

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