SHORT TERM: higher open then quiet day, DOW -65
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 both weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders were reported lower. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2599 record close, and then started to drift lower. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2595. Then at 2pm the FED ‘s FMOC minutes were released: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171122a.htm. The market then bounced higher, but ended the day at SPX 2597.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude rose $1.15, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the States. Markets will reopen on Friday for half a day.
The market opened at the all-time high today, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. Fairly quiet day, and no change in the short term count from SPX 2557: 2590-2578-2601 so far. Would be surprised if Friday’s half a day is any different than today. Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum remained around neutral for most of the day. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
Sticking with shorts here. Added some on FTSE at 7420, expecting a big ramp in Sterling soon once Brexit trade talks get the green light. Think we see 7300 next week then rally back to 7500 for year end. Hope everyone had a good break yesterday
LikeLike
You’ve calling sterling rally nicely for a while. There should be resistance at trendline from 2014 before it explodes through.
LikeLike
asa
sold all longs at 2601.25 es
see ya next week !
LikeLike
Have a good one!
LikeLike
Phil – sold CL 58.88, UWT@23.30. Hasta.
LikeLike
I have today as a CIT
Adding to a potential high here is SPX 2601 [51]
NDX 6400 [80]
I have today as Sat conjunct the GC
You can count 5 waves up from the 11-15 low
This may be the top or just the high of Major 3 IDK,
most of the other E_Wavers are looking for 30 to 75 points higher
Regardless we should see some form of selloff from here
Armstrong –Thru different methodology—- has today tomorrow as a high point as well
LikeLike
Be careful with Armstrong. He hedges himself all the time.
Tony’s count is right on…..Why go against that or fade like some do here?
LikeLike
scotty
waves are always a crapshoot but my aggressive extension failed
ready to sell all SPX longs remaining from wed into this next pop
happy to start next week with a clean slate
good luck!
re armstrong …. think months …………. not days
LikeLike
As I said last week…..2601 could be trouble
LikeLike
Man the egos on here are unbelievable. You been calling a top since 2530!! 😂😂
LikeLike
Well, Learned …….
You got the 23.05 you asked for on GDX, and a bit more. With some luck all this is just the start. There is a lot of room above, so don’t fill it all up at one time. Slow is never bad except at the race track. 🙂
LikeLike
But I blinked—and missed it.Gold has to break above 1305 to confirm.DXY seems to have broken a H&S at 92.90–and if allowed to fall to 91(or lower)would push gold up .Dollar could bearishly embed next week also.If that happens,GDX has a chance to pick up 10%.Time for that old saying:Ifs and buts were candy and nuts,we’d all have a Merry Christmas.Good luck.
LikeLike
Learned, the Move in the Metals is very weak and not impulsive at all. One last dump into Christmas for the complex looks very likely. Buying late in November on the metals and the complex has always been a way too early choice since 2011. This year will be no different.
BUY Metals around Christmas and Miners with ABX being the best Play.
Cheers,
LikeLike
Remember Folks…..Sell in the First week of December.
Cheers,
LikeLike
???
LikeLike
Well Considering nobody is Long here expect for the very few, it may be futile.
Sell the SPX, DOW, NAZ across the board….First week Dec
LikeLike
CL
kvilia
cl coming into the final buy for 59.11 target
bull above 58.44 with target same as ext long 59. 11
too perfect? could da boyze be stetting a trap
not waiting for last few pennies………ready to sell near 59.11
if it goes thru will get back in next week
good luck to us ………
CL = moneymaker………….yeah baby !
LikeLike
Good morning everyone. Phil do you have /cl in traditionals from the 11/23 low of $58.18? You’ve probably already posted a chart somewhere. Thanks in advance!
LikeLike
market
i am looking at wed high to high extension long
we came within 4 cents of .618 support just now
very dangerous here so close to 59.11 daily target and outside daily boll band
i would rather be cautious and wait till next week
ira sez …
if you like to buy outside a bollinger band…..
God bless ya !
LikeLike
market …
if you took the long on CL
short broken………. 59..11 a gimme unless da boys muck it up
stops pushed way up on UWT
good luck!
LikeLike
I seen the entry but didn’t take it. I generally trade options and the risk reward probably isn’t good enough for that move. I should have been in it a few days ago. Do you ever trade options or just futures?
LikeLike
just etfs….
LikeLike
ES Morning Update November 24th 2017 – http://reddragonleo.com/2017/11/24/es-morning-update-november-24th-2017/
LikeLike
next st resistance areas i have;2604,2610 and then a cluster between 2615 and 19
LikeLike
Good morning traders. In my attempt to try and marry analyzing /ES trading (IN ADVANCE OF SPX TRADING/LABEL) to increase the probability of Tony C. wave count, I offer the following. The holiday trading in /ES futures was low volume sloppy, non-technical trading, as /ES broke an extension LONG. but the algorithm ignored that break, as /ES is trading at a new all-time high. The 3 rhetorical questions I ask are:
1. Is /ES/SPX trading in NANO wave 5 of minute wave 5?
2. Is NANO wave 3 subdiviiding?
3. Will NANO wave 3 subdivide?
Let’s take this 1 day at a time. So far, the common Fibonacci relationship are holding well, for nano 2, 3 and 4 complete. The 2 profit targets noted on the chart, could be the top of NANO wave 5 if NANO wave 3 and 5 don’t extend I know too many options at this time….we’ll see
Chart… https://gyazo.com/5aeefa59e90ff44b3a93ea2c3941023f
LikeLike
BTW… white arrows were the activity in /ES trading in the overnight/holiday trading and the yellow arrows is my trading analysis for the morning’s session.
LikeLike