Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then quiet day, DOW -65

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 both weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders were reported lower. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2599 record close, and then started to drift lower. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2595. Then at 2pm the FED ‘s FMOC minutes were released: The market then bounced higher, but ended the day at SPX 2597.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude rose $1.15, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the States. Markets will reopen on Friday for half a day.

The market opened at the all-time high today, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. Fairly quiet day, and no change in the short term count from SPX 2557: 2590-2578-2601 so far. Would be surprised if Friday’s half a day is any different than today. Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum remained around neutral for most of the day. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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100 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. mcgcapital says:

    Sticking with shorts here. Added some on FTSE at 7420, expecting a big ramp in Sterling soon once Brexit trade talks get the green light. Think we see 7300 next week then rally back to 7500 for year end. Hope everyone had a good break yesterday


  2. phil1247 says:


    sold all longs at 2601.25 es
    see ya next week !


  3. scottycj1 says:

    I have today as a CIT
    Adding to a potential high here is SPX 2601 [51]
    NDX 6400 [80]

    I have today as Sat conjunct the GC
    You can count 5 waves up from the 11-15 low
    This may be the top or just the high of Major 3 IDK,
    most of the other E_Wavers are looking for 30 to 75 points higher

    Regardless we should see some form of selloff from here
    Armstrong –Thru different methodology—- has today tomorrow as a high point as well


  4. Well, Learned …….

    You got the 23.05 you asked for on GDX, and a bit more. With some luck all this is just the start. There is a lot of room above, so don’t fill it all up at one time. Slow is never bad except at the race track. 🙂


    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      But I blinked—and missed it.Gold has to break above 1305 to confirm.DXY seems to have broken a H&S at 92.90–and if allowed to fall to 91(or lower)would push gold up .Dollar could bearishly embed next week also.If that happens,GDX has a chance to pick up 10%.Time for that old saying:Ifs and buts were candy and nuts,we’d all have a Merry Christmas.Good luck.


      • allen kimble says:

        Learned, the Move in the Metals is very weak and not impulsive at all. One last dump into Christmas for the complex looks very likely. Buying late in November on the metals and the complex has always been a way too early choice since 2011. This year will be no different.

        BUY Metals around Christmas and Miners with ABX being the best Play.



  5. allen kimble says:

    Remember Folks…..Sell in the First week of December.



  6. phil1247 says:


    cl coming into the final buy for 59.11 target
    bull above 58.44 with target same as ext long 59. 11
    too perfect? could da boyze be stetting a trap
    not waiting for last few pennies………ready to sell near 59.11
    if it goes thru will get back in next week

    good luck to us ………

    CL = moneymaker………….yeah baby !


    • Good morning everyone. Phil do you have /cl in traditionals from the 11/23 low of $58.18? You’ve probably already posted a chart somewhere. Thanks in advance!


      • phil1247 says:

        i am looking at wed high to high extension long
        we came within 4 cents of .618 support just now
        very dangerous here so close to 59.11 daily target and outside daily boll band
        i would rather be cautious and wait till next week

        ira sez …
        if you like to buy outside a bollinger band…..
        God bless ya !


  7. micky says:

    next st resistance areas i have;2604,2610 and then a cluster between 2615 and 19


  8. Good morning traders. In my attempt to try and marry analyzing /ES trading (IN ADVANCE OF SPX TRADING/LABEL) to increase the probability of Tony C. wave count, I offer the following. The holiday trading in /ES futures was low volume sloppy, non-technical trading, as /ES broke an extension LONG. but the algorithm ignored that break, as /ES is trading at a new all-time high. The 3 rhetorical questions I ask are:
    1. Is /ES/SPX trading in NANO wave 5 of minute wave 5?
    2. Is NANO wave 3 subdiviiding?
    3. Will NANO wave 3 subdivide?

    Let’s take this 1 day at a time. So far, the common Fibonacci relationship are holding well, for nano 2, 3 and 4 complete. The 2 profit targets noted on the chart, could be the top of NANO wave 5 if NANO wave 3 and 5 don’t extend I know too many options at this time….we’ll see


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