Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening and rally, DOW +161

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2592. The SPX had closed at 2582 yesterday. After the open the market continued to rally until it hit SPX 2600 at 11am. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher. Then the market went into a 2 point trading range until the SPX hit 2601 at 2pm. Then a 3 point trading range followed into the close ending the day at SPX 2599.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.10%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold moved up $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and durable goods at 8:30, consumer sentiment at 10am, then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, jumping over the recent SPX 2590 high, then rallying past the SPX 2597 all-time high too. We can now count three waves up from the recent Minute iv low at SPX 2557: 2590-2578-2601. Again, too early to tell what degree these three waves are. But the market is already at all-time highs and appears heading to the OEW 2632 pivot range next. Short term support is now at the 2594 and 2575 pivots with resistance at the 2632 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at today’s high. Best to your holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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86 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Tony and all of the guys and gals that post here.

    Like

  2. Holly Silver says:

    The correlation between a subdued dollar and equities rally is clear. The dollar pattern looks ready for a big move. The support is right here around 93.40. Obviously it can go either way. The move from here determines a stock market breakout to new highs or a sizeable correction. Stocks can easily go higher if dollar stays weak. A fast move higher would suggest the stock market move is temporarily over. Seasonality strongly favors continued strength in equities. I will ONLY bet against this trend if either the dollar has a fast breakout or we hit SPX 2634 by late November or early December without going thru the target.

    A start of a 3 to 5 month drop starting in early December is a long shot. I will however assume just that if Mueller makes big charges against top officials in that time frame. That will be a huge external catalyst for dumping stocks. My assumptions of a final push higher in stocks in a tight range of December thru January are as strong as when I declared the consumer in great shape at end of 2015. By no means the end of the bull market just a text book correction.

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    • phil1247 says:

      no consistent correlation between dollar and equities
      sometimes positive sometimes negative
      just say no to correlations !
      http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_relationship_between_dollar_and_stock_market/

      Like

      • tommyboys says:

        Dunno how many times you gotta repeat that Phil – let alone provide evidence. Better talking to a brick wall…

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      • Holly Silver says:

        I stand corrected! A break above 95 will cause big trouble depending on the speed of move. a range bound dollar is a plus for stocks. 2011 thru 2015 a slow recovery with low inflation kept cost down and margins high. The dollar was at extreme lows thanks to world wide recovery being slower than ours. The accelerated economic expansion since is starting to put pressure on costs as other nations join the party. we break 95 and 100 is most probably going to also be seen.

        I don’t look at superimposed images to determine if there is a breakout or breakdown point. True the use of my words “correlation” is wrong. Perhaps I should have stated there are major levels that can cause a breakdown in equities. The spike move off 80 is dramatic for the dollar. The gap in price momentum between the two never bigger.

        Maybe I read too much into this but I would not be surprised if the final equities push causes the dollar to spike above 100 and it marks the end of the long bull run.

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        • Most people (80%? 99.9%?) do not appreciate the difficulty of correlation. You have company. Data says little, model says a lot. Data talks of the past, model talks of the future. Correlation is a single point with summary data. A small child with a loud voice who gets a lot of attention, but has no idea what happens tomorrow. Spare the rod and spoil the child. Well, something like that. 🙂

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    • allen kimble says:

      You’re obsessed with trump and the correlation to it in stocks. Guess what…It DON’T MATTER! You are delusional if you think it makes any difference to the stock market.

      Get a F’en clue!

      Like

      • Holly Silver says:

        I was delusional when I was forced off daring to conclude trump was a menace and irrational unstable ego maniac. Can you really claim my position then has the same negative response today? Was wrong to conclude the political turmoil would have already affected the market.

        I also made a startling extremely bullish proclamation in late 2015 declaring the possibility of a crash has near zero chance. I not only stated that we would not crash I stated we will have one of the biggest rallies to come. this from a person with bearish tendencies.

        From 2015 on we seem to be forming a wedge pattern (dollar) of higher highs and lower lows. Three higher highs, and three lower lows. If pattern stays true we can rally off this low or even go as low as 90 plus before the pattern breaks down. Wedge pattern breakdown below 90. Breakout above 102.

        The odds of Mueller not charging trump and his immediate top team is as close to zero as I can imagine. The odds of impeachment are an “unknown” right now based on emotional reaction and self preservation from the GOP. So far they have done everything possible to implode. I thought they were smarter than that.

        Yes charges against TRUMP will affect the market.

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        • phil1247 says:

          no correlation

          assassination of Kennedy was a one day blip

          Like

        • travis01 says:

          Trump not going anywhere. You can’t impeach cause he said mean things

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          • tommyboys says:

            LOL – “he’s a meany” – was allso elected by a disordinate amount of states 😄

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          • jjjzzzwww says:

            including an “inordinate” amount of states with opioid abuse

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          • travis01 says:

            Wtf? I’m lost.

            Like

          • jjjzzzwww says:

            no comprende amigo

            Like

          • fionamargaret says:

            ..we started with the definition of correlation, accepting that random variables produce outcomes based on the amount of dependance. Scatterplots were introduced as a determinate factor.
            Then the conversation turned to Trump and the suggestion that if he was impeached, no noticeable market movement would incur (no correlation)…I think some.
            Then the idea that Trump just said mean things was not an impeachable offence was introduced and further to that the suggestion that the majority of states with opioid abuse were responsible for his election….
            Now you are up to date….you feel you are sorry you asked….I am not as good as Joseph at explanations. I am inclined towards more florid language…..x

            Like

  3. NEWBIE says:

    Sheeple buying spx at 2600 after its up 400%, in the meantime vix, gold, and silver about to explode as the Bankers prepare to drop the market.

    Like

  4. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    Happy Thanksgiving
    and good health
    to you and your family

    Like

  5. Well, Learned and all …..

    Gold never did learn to look at a calendar. The PMS are moving again. Just a bit more for that knock-out punch you were looking for. 🙂 Be a bit patient. It’s close.

    Thank you Tony for all you do, and also to the rest of you. I wish you all a perfect Thanksgiving as I fashionably pick my teeth and figure out how to pack for a trip.

    Like

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Levels that will impress me–if exceeded:
      GdX 23.05
      Gold 1305.
      The area that gold is trading in now has been trodden on so much that “Road under Construction” signs have been placed there,while repavement takes place.
      This bounceback is a pleasant bit of action–but the above levels are the important numbers.Akso a plus would be staying above the 20d on GDX today and Friday (22.80ish?) Good luck.

      Like

      • fionamargaret says:

        Oh ye of little faith…

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      • I could be wrong but it seems to me that one of the only two things that can stop it now is a picture of Trump standing in his underpants, shaving his chin and giving a discourse on the ramifications of the non-existence of dark matter in the space-time continuum (see how that stopped you there for a bit? 🙂 )

        Somewhere in North Korea there is a debate going on now whether Trump pardoned the turkey or the turkey pardoned Trump before thanksgiving. 🙂

        Like

        • fionamargaret says:

          I hope you have a lovely Thanksgiving…and trip xx

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          • fionamargaret says:

            … and I wouldn’t worry too much about Trump’s sojourn into theoretical physics…he probably thinks a torch is the best way to deal with dark matter…

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          • David Cassidy (America’s favourite boy from the 60s-1970s) passed away yesterday. This is in his memory, for you. Well, for anyone who will listen. He wrote this song and Barry M made it famous. There was so much hysteria (he was wildly popular with vimmen) over him in Australia that there was a move to have him deported. These days, sadly, we see no hysteria. Just crime. I vote for mass hysteria.

            Like

          • learnedmylesson25 says:

            Too bad he couldn’t enjoy the talent that was given to him.

            Like

  6. phil1247 says:

    CL

    kvilia … you did reverse to long …. yes ?

    targets of 58.31 and 59.11 still look good
    selling half UWT now
    and waiting to get back in after number volatility
    just had nice bounce at .38 of extension long

    good luck to us !

    CL = moneymaker !!

    Like

    • Hi phil….looks like /ES will finally give me my entry at 2592.25 today. But I am not going to take it. Slow, low volume, reactionary trading taking place this morning…so far. Going to work out and buy some Thanksgiving accessories to go with the turkey.

      Happy Thanksgiving to all.

      Like

      • phil1247 says:

        asa
        prob a 4th wave now or worse
        post triangle thrust could be done now and a bigger correction ahead
        or its wave 1 of thrust
        but unless i see power to suggest that
        i am done till next week
        happy thanksgiving asa ,,,,, and all !
        see ya!

        Like

    • fionamargaret says:

      …so all the swooshes down were for naught….

      Like

  7. Mary773 says:

    Since the 1982 low, SPX has made an ATH in November eleven times. In nine cases, SPX was higher than the November close after one month. In ten cases, it was higher after three months. In all cases, SPX closed higher six months later than it did at the end of November. The average six month gain was 7.21 percent, which from current levels projects to SPX being at 2786,42 on May 31. 2018. The smallest gain was 1.93% (2649,19). The largest gain was 22.35% (3179.91). The median gain was 9.69% (2850.88). The bears are fighting a powerful bull market, extremely positive seasonality, and Tony’s count. Happy Thanksgiving!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPLsZzzV4AAJcwe.jpg:large

    Like

    • allen1929 says:

      + 10

      Like

    • H D says:

      3 of last 4 years Jan was lower than Nov close. Price and Time. “Seasonality” requires technical entry, like any other trade.

      Like

      • mcgcapital says:

        Exactly this. It feels like a lot of people are just blind buying, holding through any drawdowns under the pretence it has to go up. Maybe (more than likely statistically) it will over time but it’s still not good practice and they will get caught when the trend changes

        Like

  8. Happy days are over and we have top out.
    Trouble Bubble around the corner, There is only one door. It will be extremely deep.
    Regards
    NybisSibyn

    Like

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