Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2582. After a gap down opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2588. Then additional gap down openings on Tuesday/Wednesday took the SPX to 2557. Thursday reversed with a gap up opening, rallying the market to SPX 2590. Then on Friday the market pulled back to end the week at SPX 2579. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.3%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, plus weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit rose. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, the NAHB, housing starts and building permits. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, leading indicators and durable goods. Happy Thanksgiving!

LONG TERM: uptrend

While the new administration is having a difficult time getting major legislation passed. The fact that they have pledged, and are trying to do so, has clearly changed investor confidence. A quick look at the weekly charts bares this out. After the 2016 low, prior to and right around the election the market had 5% corrections. Since the election, one year ago this month, the market has had just one 3.3% correction. A recent analysis displayed there were only 9 times in the history of the US stock market, the market has gone about this many trading days without so much as a 5% correction. All of those previous events occurred during the 1949-1966 P3 or the 1982-2000 P3. More evidence a P3 Secular bull market is underway.

Our wave count from the P2 2016 SPX 1810 low remains unchanged. This Major 1 bull market is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016. Int. wave iii then subdivided into five Minor waves. Minor waves 1 and 2 completed in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 completed in the spring of 2017. Minor wave 5 has been underway since then. When it does complete, Int. iii will also end, and then the largest correction since 2016 could unfold. After that Int. iv correction, Int. v will carry the market to all-time new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The entire range for the week occurred within about 24 hours SPX: 2557-2590. Leading up to that point the market had experienced four gap down openings within five trading days. Normally we would have expected the SPX to be down 4%-5% after such selling pressure. But the market was only down 1.5%, from the all-time high at its worse level. There definitely appears to be buyers under current levels.

The current Minor wave 5 uptrend continues to extend. It started back in April at SPX 2329 and recently reached SPX 2597. We have been tracking this extended uptrend throughout as it divided into five Minute waves. With each rising Minute wave subdividing into five Micro waves, with sometimes with further subdivisions. Minute waves i and ii ended in June/July, and Minute waves iii and iv recently ended in November. It appears Minute v is now underway from Wednesday’s SPX 2557 low. Medium term support is at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots.


With Minute iii longer than Minute i, Minute v can now be at any length. We are initially estimating that it will be short, in time and price, like so many fifth waves in the past. Our target for Minute iii was the OEW 2594 pivot range. Where it eventually hit twice before heading into Minute iv. Minute iv appears to have bottomed above our SPX 2540’s target at SPX 2557. We are expecting Minute v to top between the 2632 and 2656 pivot ranges.

Thus far from the Minute iv low, Minute v has rallied in two waves SPX: 2590-2578. These waves may be of Pico, Nano, or even Micro degree. It is too early to tell at this time. Whatever the outcome we do expect SPX 2557 to hold for Minute iv, and the market to make new all-time highs shortly. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2557, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading during the upcoming holiday shortened week.


Asian markets for the week were mostly lower losing 0.8%.

European markets were also mostly lower losing 0.9%.

The DJ World index lost 0.1%, and the NYSE lost 0.2%.


Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.3%.

Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 0.1%.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

The USD appears to be in a downtrend and lost 0.5%.


Monday: leading indicators at 10am. Tuesday: existing homes sales. Wednesday: weekly jobless claims, durable goods, consumer sentiment and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: Thanksgiving holiday. Friday: markets close at 1pm.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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113 Responses to Weekend update

  1. I took a short at 2584 See if 2565 can be hit tomorrow. As an ABCDE triangle to end 4.Then up. Wednesday and Friday of this week very bullish.


  2. tommyboys says:

    A/D relatively strong again today and curling up on the weekly. Insider transactions remained bullish again last week. If A/D busts new highs next week or two we’ll likely see that “melt up” to the chagrin of the most. Looks like shorts are complacent NEWBBB….


  3. phil1247 says:


    looks like CL is getting ready to move to 59.11 ext long target
    did you get long ?


  4. learnedmylesson25 says:

    All I can say is when the ECB doesn’t want gold to go above a certain level (1305 in this case),which would open the door to a REAL move higher–you get a $19 down day.I see it a mile away now.Have become very cynical on gold resIstance levels.Those levels are guarded more securely than Trump is by the Secret Service.GDX never got above the 20d on a closing basis— the rally Friday,a lot of noise ahead of more manipulation.Later.


  5. Mary773 says:

    Lots of bears around here who are fading Tony. Good luck. If you are ever tempted to go short without a stop, I refer you to this 2012 column by Herb Greenberg that I review periodically to reinforce the importance of risk management especially when you are sure you are right:

    ~SAN DIEGO (CBS.MW) — In a report Tuesday 11/16, W.R. Hambrecht analyst Bill Lennan reiterated a ‘sell’ rating on Netflix and called the company ‘fatally flawed.’ The report reads like redemption for Lennan, who last summer put a ‘buy’ on the stock before its implosion. Now, he says, Netflix is a victim of a high variable-cost structure ‘driven by DVD usage instead of revenue.’ Lennan says the flaws ‘were once survivable, but competition has made them dire. Blockbuster’s aggressive foray into the business has resulted in unsustainable economics for Netflix,’ he writes. He adds: ‘If you understand Netflix’s cost structure, you should reach a similar conclusion.’ He says the ‘dire situation facing Netflix is readily apparent to anyone who understands Netflix’s cost structure and the role DVD usage plays in it. We believe Blockbuster recognizes it and may use its cost advantage to end Netflix’s days as an independent company.’ But even a takeover may not bail out Netflix investors. According to Lennan, the takeover value for Netflix is $4 to $6 per share. ‘Reality bites,’ he writes, ‘but has yet to bite Netflix shares,’ which closed Monday at $11.23.
    The challenges facing Netflix, of course, have been a longtime focus of this column.~

    Fatally flawed NFLX is currently trading at $193.


  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Last one:Gold pounded down $12–GDX up .10%????If GDX holds anywhere close to break even with gold losing ground like that,GDX sometimes is whispering,”buy me”.Long way to go today.Good luck all.


  7. fenster6 says:

    jobjas – if you are into tin hat conspiracy theories then take a look at this fellow.

    Paul Horner. He was the mastery of fake news. Boasted he had won the election for trump. Many of his false stories were picked up and tweeted out by the trump team. Many were picked up by the russian fakes Facebook profiles and broadcast. As he said …”My sites were picked up by Trump supporters all the time… His followers don’t fact-check anything – they’ll post everything, believe anything.”

    I remember reading at the time about how Hilary Clinton and her team were involved in child porn , called pizzagate, even mentioned here even though it was such crazy BS.

    He started to express regret in for what he had done in helping trump get into power and was starting to spill the beans on who else he worked with. He was found dead this Sept. and the local investigating Sheriff said there was no wrong doing, nothing to investigate… move long.


    • fotis2 says:

      Please buddy stop posting political stuff it was nice and clean for a while now and the focus was on the charts there are many other sites that cater for that kind of thing.


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