Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rally, DOW +17

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 2574 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2582 on Friday. Right after the open the market started to rally. At 2pm the federal budget deficit was reported higher. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2588, pulled back to 2583, then closed at 2585.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30.

The market gapped down for the second time in the past three trading days. This time the opening marked the low of the day at SPX 2574. After that the market rallied all the way back to close the gap and to SPX 2588. Thus far from SPX 2588 we have a choppy pattern: 2566-2597-2566-2586-2574-2588. This market is reluctant to move lower, but options expiration looms at the end of the week. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2566, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought during to day’s rally. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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145 Responses to Monday update

  1. torehund says:

    RUT: From Aug 18 two waves up, an x wave and then a double abc down. There is a possibility this downturn is tapering off 🙂

  2. micky says:

    One possible small wave scenario is we had an abc down to 2566 for an A, since then we made a B, and todays low was the second a, now busy with b, then c down for the c of the bigger C. These corrections are difficult to decipher so I am continuing to scalp them to the upside only .If we do get lower prices yet it should be a great buying opp for many points up again.

  3. JK1987 says:

    my reading of the gaps.
    3 downside gaps in 4 days.
    the first big one will not get filled.
    the second one filled on the day.
    here, the third one, imho, will not fill on the day. but will gap up tomorrow to 2584~2585 to fill the gap.
    let’s verify tomorrow.
    post #3 of the 3 posting limit quota imposed on me.
    cheers!

  4. I think PMs have initated or are trying to initiate a sustained move up here. I could be wrong, but the chart has the right look. That and a small prayer should work.

    • allen kimble says:

      Not a chance! It’s a one day event. The angst over the tax plan. When the S&P 500 starts it’s seasonal move higher, Gold will get clipped. You should know this by now.

      • Allen your contributions here are priceless, Im sure everyone here appreciate them .

        We all realize how wonderful of a trader you are and how terrible the rest of us are..

        Ahh the internet

        • mcgcapital says:

          Lol.. I don’t know why anybody bothers to do analysis when all we need is a calendar according to this troll. Maybe if he posts the word seasonality more often (more than the 5 times a day he’s currently managing) we might rally despite lower highs and lows, and weak breadth

      • Perhaps. By now we know that the only sure things are death, and taxes.

        Or is that debt and Texas?

  5. Holly Silver says:

    Anyone thinking this administration is like all others must have lived in a Banana Republic or perhaps Russia. The fact that trump is head butting against his own GOP means nothing will change with any real legislation. Market has factored in either Democrat or Republican free-gifts giveaways. Not going to happen. Tax plan is DOA.

    Absolutely positive we get multiple charges from Mueller to all the top staff including trump himself. Absolutely sure the GOP want an excuse to get rid of trump like they are doing towards Moore.

    In many circumstances a stalled congress resulted in a stock market that never minded gridlock. In this instance the 8 year tired rally suggests otherwise. Momentum has slipped and fuel is needed to keep it going. Another year of no change means the market will suffer for it.
    Sessions took the stand once again and continued to lie even as the whole Senate seemed to expect and accept this. My biggest concern and question is if Mueller has to make a deal with congress to exclude Sessions from the charges in order to get them to go along. We now know of over 30 different meetings with Russian interests. The number is so staggering I wonder how they had the time to prepare for anything else. Russia is in the White House at all top level positions. History books will have a field day making non-fiction seem like a steamy clock and dagger thriller.

    I presented my assessment from day one and the reality is even more alarming than I ever imagined possible. So we start yet another mock charge against a dead political opponent to divert attention from reality. The GOP deserves what they get. Too stupid not to know when to quit and stop obstruction of justice and complicit behavior for treasonous acts.

    Repetitive diatribe but one worth repeating. Next big shoe from Mueller to hit shortly. Funny how I was banned because of my hard line stand on calling out trump but today it seems so tame. One year later and trump has managed to numb us to accept all possibilities.

    ** long and repetitive musings is my trademark. Don’t know any other way. **

    • tony caldaro says:

      absolutely sure you will be absolutely wrong =)
      just my opinion of course
      Sessions has threatened a special council against the DNC/Clinton.
      Why? To get Mueller to back off of this worthless ordeal.
      It’s a waste of time and money, and all he has to show thus far is Manafort was doing some bad deeds for years.
      If Mueller does not back off then Sessions will go ahead with a new special council.
      Then the public will see how really corrupt the US political system has become.

      • jjjzzzwww says:

        “all he has to show thus far is Manafort was doing some bad deeds for years”
        so far

      • purplember says:

        would the CLINTONS please go away. seriously, i’m so sick of that corrupt couple….

      • lunker1 says:

        +1 good one Tony

      • H D says:

        Short term memory an issue? Trey Gowdy spent $8M and 2.5 years investigating Clinton already. They got nada. She testified for 11 hours under oath. Still nada. Maybe the most investigated politician ever and still nada. I say bring it on. Expose it all. You guys have nothing but diversion as a defense. Stay on topic. Trump is POTUS. Clinton lost. Get over it already. Find a new target.

        Felony charges against trumps campaign manager is not a waste of time or money for most Patriots.

        • H D says:

          “some bad deeds” ???? Indicted by a grand jury for CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE USA! +12 other felony counts. Time to wake up! Very few Patriots left.

        • tony caldaro says:

          Now the Socialist Left are calling themselves Patriots?
          Our Forefathers are rolling over in their graves, or laughing themselves silly.
          Diversion was created by the Left my friend.
          Haven’t you noticed they never answer a charge,
          But divert to some phobic/racist claim.
          We can go on and on.
          Thankfully it doesn’t effect the markets.

          • H D says:

            IDK about the socialist left but yes Patriots want the truth and are not just dismissing the Russia allegations as a waste of time or trying to divert attention from that issue. The only people using diversion now are alt right. Not even the GOP is siding with that radical agenda. Move to the middle and you will see the truth my friend.

      • Holly Silver says:

        Delusional. List a mile long. 30 uncovered Russian operative secret meetings and not one person admitting it until caught. Sessions was in on meeting and lied under oath multiple times it never happened. trump Jr. got caught with Tower meeting and WikiLeaks. Do you really know how to search the reports up? hint: Trump Russia Timeline. NPR did a great job. This as trump just defended Putin again and called our intelligence people hacks. I guess Moore is an upstanding citizen being railroaded. I DID CALL OUT ALL THE CORRUPTION FROM DAY ONE. Am I psychic? Lucky? It’s called analytical thinking. I never allow my emotional bias to cloud facts. I might not like it but I refuse to stay static in life. I can switch from bull to bear and back again on a dime if I decide that’s the best analysis. I never defend my positions or losses. You banned me way before any of this came to light. Look back at my posts and tell me I was wrong. You actually think I still am?

    • ragnar5 says:

      I completely agree, Holly! Mueller’s team will be shut down by Rosenstein as soon as they look at Trump’s personal finance records according to Trumpkin’s previous threats. Trumpkin has been compromised by the Kremlin, synonymous with the Russian mob/oligarchs. What else can explain his perpetual dismissal of our intelligence services appraisals while kissing Putin’s ass?

      • It will all be interesting on how it all plays out. As far as the stock market either way need a 4 down to 2350ish and a 5 up to 3000 ish.
        Not sure it matters if the people whom we call Congressman play nice together in the sand box or not. After 300 sp either earnings better be awesome or some sort of tax deal or allow companies to bring cash back to buy more stock. if so we continue up. If not no super cycle and down we go. way to early for that call. Or maybe Phill is right jack the debt up to 50 trillion to get the dow up to 50K. then crash. My guess nothing gets done , but sp still reaches 3000.

        To many for me , see ya all tomorrow

      • tommyboys says:

        There is NO Trump and Russia LOL – ri-DIC-culous – man the limousine lib media has SURE done its job! Yeah Trump & Putin were plotting to WIN the election for years HA – think about the insanity of that idea. Trump wasn’t even sure he would run in 2015 – and had never spoken to Putin. Further what could Putin – or any OTHER global leader possibly “collude” on?? Silly nonsense. Would be much easier for some prodogy tech hacker to influence things than sny global leader…

        Follow the money – Clintons! Came into office broke and left with hundreds of million$$$$$$! U1 results in $165M payola plus ridiculous “speaking” fees from Putin to Clintons

        The brainwashing is unreal.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Phil looks like you could be right about RUT. Maybe be more downside yet. When it bounces though boy will it bounce. I’m taking 100 points in a few weeks. I’d rather wait for that move than short.

  7. fotis2 says:

    2587 next

  8. allen kimble says:

    The SPX and possibly the DOW will be GREEN by the end of the day. All of you crash callers are absolutely delusional and fail to realize that we are in an excellent seasonal time period. Why can’t you understand this?

    Bottom line…crash/correction callers are fools and will be dealt with swiftly.

    Now the market it ready to embark on a multi-week rally into the first part of December. Enjoy!

  9. travis01 says:

    I’m in the board room this week so little chance to sit and scalp these awesome setups. Funny how so many people criticizing the bears and the bulls, when there are sooo many opportunities to win both ways this week and last. Hell im a bull and bear in the same day all the time (but of course I don’t short term trade retirem not money…that’s all long). Awesome volatility to be had. You can “btfd” all you want if you have tons of dry cash sitting, or you can stay long but pull nice $$$s from down moves 1-2 times a day. GL to all, this isn’t a zero sum game on our minutiae level.

  10. …and just like that,Brady announces a vote on tax reform and the market jumps above 2574.Now what?

  11. NEWBIE says:

    You guys are buying the dip at the wrong time, we are going to drop from 2580 area down to 2550 -2530.

  12. Mary773 says:

    Someone was asking Fiona about the catalyst for gold. If this cycle holds, the Euro will have had a false breakdown from a H/S and gold will have the catalyst of a falling dollar.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p18127687945&a=555821556&listNum=36

    • phil1247 says:

      RUT…..
      …extension long kaput
      potential support 1431 then 1413
      still dont like it

      • vivelaamo says:

        Stay above yesterday low and bottom is in. You talking about daily extension because I have the 61.8 retrace at 1456.4?

        • phil1247 says:

          daily ext is gone………1452 is .38 of traditional……….thats very aggressive
          bear below 1497 …..sound familiar? its the previous ext long target.. now turned to resistance and coincidentally the .618 retrace level…………
          you cant make this stuff up!
          RUT………. stay short or stay out

  13. lunker1 says:

    Seems SPX was moving sideways biding it’s time while the MAs still were rising to now be able to move back under the middle BB at 2576. With the pivot at 2575 and now the VIX is above it’s upper BB it looks like more down to come. Sitting to the side until things clear up.

  14. JK1987 says:

    profit taking, spx 2566.56 should be the low for today, let’s fill the gap 2584.84
    cheers!

    • Rick Jend says:

      JK, What about the gap down from 2,594.38 last Thursday/Friday. Do you think that needs to be filled too? We would have to go positive by 9.54 today to do that.

      • vivelaamo says:

        The expert that knows all missed a gap 😂😂😂

        • Rick Jend says:

          The reason I’m asking is that I don’t believe all gaps need to be filled. I’ve heard that in 1932 there was a gap up from the low that was never filled. P.S. And I don’t think it ever will be filled, if you’re asking me. I’m just wondering if all small gaps need to be filled. Any other opinions?

          • vivelaamo says:

            Rick my opinion on gaps with indices are you have to consider them with the overall trend. There are gaps below since 2011 in indices that haven’t been filled. Then there are gaps above during a secular bull market. They will most likely get filled and more.

            I’m not sure how long you have been reading this blog but be careful of JK’s views. According to him we should have gone below 1800 back in October. He was very adament about this.

            So basically ignore anything his posts. 10p short of a pound.

            • micky says:

              And gaps take your eyes off the ball.

              • Rick Jend says:

                Thanks guys. I guess that’s my point. Gaps do not always have to be filled, even though there is a natural tendency to be filled, to relieve an unexpected short term trend change. It’s more important to know where you are in a wave count, and whether you’re in a general uptrend or downtrend. Good luck to everyone.

  15. phil1247 says:

    kvilia

    CL
    swooshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
    to 55.40 then 54.80

    • phil1247 says:

      kvilia…….
      … can you hear the CL swooshhhhhhhhhhh?
      that sound should be music to your ears 🙂

      • kvilia says:

        I am green now 🙂 I think CL is just starting. Long term $52.46 is still line in the sand. Dont think $54.8 will hold. Swooooooshhhh!

        • phil1247 says:

          told ya !…………. dont give up ………. BRICK wall !

          • vivelaamo says:

            Phil CL is choppy. I’m suprised you bother with it?

            • fotis2 says:

              Chop is kaput broke out of year and a half sideways consolidation look for a decent long setup next weeks/month for long term play

              • kvilia says:

                Fotis, maybe yes maybe know – will let the price action tell. So fat looks good for longs but if 52.46 is broken, 42.32 could be reality. And if 38.69 is broken – hello single digits! Considering that shale oil is forecasted to explode in the near future as well as long term political mandates to eliminate use of oil products, I would not be surprised in such outcome.
                Not to mention that chop is good to make money.

          • kvilia says:

            Phil – you are right about the brick wall. It will be almost impossible to break 60 area without a miracle.

  16. travis01 says:

    Bounce off 2566ish?

  17. Mary773 says:

    Tony,
    Minute ii was an eight trading day (or possibly twelve), 48 SPX point correction.
    Are you expecting something comparable for Minute iv?
    Thank you.

  18. Unfortunately for gold bulls,my 80% probability of cracking 1266 appears to be taking hold.Last night Ira mentioned a break of 1273 is important.These guys in the ECB(PPT as well)are persistent in their efforts.It all starts with central banks in Europe–as has occurred many times–borrowing gold to SELL.Somehow they make money on this crooked transaction.Drives gold down.But similar to ECB buying European stock futures,which by the domino effect causes US equities to rise–it’s their game.Our PPT plays along when needed.Nothing can be done about it–just when gold takes a nose dive out of the blue–there’s a Draghiesque reason why.
    S&P threatening a break?Are these (mostly ignored)HOs going to work this time for a couple percent?See what our government decides at support level 2574.Good luck all.

    • allen kimble says:

      Ohh it will break eventually and $1200 will be it’s destination. However If you look at it since October it appears to be forming some type of triangle consolidation(descending triangle perhaps?). It also appears to be in the middle stage of it’s consolidation. A December break seems valid here with the non farm payrolls and the FOMC showing more hikes than expected in 2018 to scare the gold bugs.

    • fotis2 says:

      3BR daily formed Friday close Gold chart must of sniffed out Mr.Draghi if it plays out we have 2 options at that level either a DB or a Break in which case next level 1210
      https://invst.ly/5u7mh

  19. vivelaamo says:

    You can almost smell all the bears that will be trapped this week. Look out for Jk and Newbie.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTsHnAc2lvLx1delZuG9jsBU5SLuOcg4-4VpJU_JzjE_C2e5iHqTQ

  20. Good morning traders. Morning trading analysis. /ES trading in a narrow range last few days….and is CURRENTLY trading into a LONG entry with a stop 2 ticks below the micro 61.8% LONG. This is the higher probability of occurring as /ES could fill its GAP just above. The next 2 bullish targets would be the recent high and profit target #1. The bearish call would be if /ES trades below 2576.08…that would open the door to 2568 and potentially lower targets.
    Bottom line… /ES 2576.08, bullish above and bearish below.

    Notes on chart…
    https://gyazo.com/917df4aba87c223ab9f517acfff89049

    • Futures trading below, looks bearish

      • Yep, saw that. A few central bankers gave speeches in the overnight session. All eyes/ears were on Draghi, for his current position on interest rates and an increase in the tapering program. I just hope this is a technical break and not sloppy reactionary trade on traders trying ti interpret what Draghi said/meant….if it is technical, it adds to the probability of trading to lower targets I outlined in my post.

  21. ******* JUST UPDATED HEAVEN/HELL CRASH MODEL. WE ARE NOW IN A RARE -10 SIGNAL
    WHICH CALLS FOR AT MINIMUM A SHARP PULLBACK TO A MINI CRASH. ALL POSITIONS AND TRADES HAVE BEEN UPDATED, SELLING A MAJORITY OF LONG EQUITIES AND ADDING SHORT EXPOSURE VIA $VXX. i hope i am wrong but
    I WOULD RATHER GIVE UP PROFITS RATHER THAN TAKE LOSSES IN EXISTING POSITIONS. see EASYTRADE2.WORDPRESS.COM

  22. Amit Tiwary says:

    Hi Tony,
    Namastey…
    Namastey everyone..
    Looks like choppy triangle minute 4 is over..and new bull started..
    Thanks for being there..

  23. vivelaamo says:

    All major US indices made a higher low yesterday. We all saw it. Rally today and the pb is done.

  24. JK1987 says:

    just saying, tomorrow Nov 14, $spx should take out 2566 to the downside. (there is no news created yet, don’t bother to look for one).

    1. Raymond James Jeff Saut says ” ALL the rallies like we have seen since the November presidential election (the runaway rally that we called), most of the gains have been given back in a “selling stampede.”
    *** that’s about right for the initial selling stampede, should take spx to around 2250 as “most of the gains have been given back”
    2. Jeff Saut says ” we believe this secular bull market has at least another 10+ years left in it!
    *** imho, that statement will be dead wrong. i have so many ways to demonstrate as what’s really going on, and why. i was confidently offer the host for a debate, but his mind already made up, so no need.
    3. Jeff Saut says “the final stage of a melt-up move that typically gets “given back.” In the current case that would be the August to last week “melt up.” If that happens it would mean the S&P 500 could fall back to 2425, which is where the final “melt up” stage began.”
    *** 2565 support did already, instead of 2525, should be 2530-2535 in my chart.
    4. Jeff Saut does not see the big Crash. i thought he knew the technical and saw it, but apparently he did not see it.

    i seems to me Jeff Saut’s four decades technical practices only so-so, not impressive at all. he is far behind. some are very smart, some work hard, some have lots of experience, and some have plenty of resources. but most or all of them can not see through the market for their whole life no matter how hard they try.

    it’s easy to call the market rally for the last 9 years, every neighborhood barber man, salon lady, taxi driver, Ma and Pa knows to buy all the dips for the last 9 years.
    so it’s not unusual for JS to call the buy at the low.
    what’s challenging and can distinguish between the “really knows” will be able to see the coming Big crash and Great Deflation. so far, have not seen any person can see both of the events.
    some might say crash, but they don’t know why and don’t know the technical, they just guessing,

    the market must have big Crash structure has nothing to do with politics, Trump has nothing to do with the Crash, not his fault when the Big Crash comes.
    Worldwide stock market bottomed Feb 2016, and started the big run from Nov 2016.
    Does German, Japan, China’s market rally starting from the same time has anything to do with Trump got elected? has anything to do with the proposed US tax cut? None
    the coming big Crash will be all technical, zero factor to do with any politics.
    but after the Crash, people will find excuses of politics or something else.

    the whole world is connected, all on the same earth, under
    God

    the big Crash will be worldwide. why?
    it will be the kick off the Great Deflation, count on it.
    cheers!

    • vivelaamo says:

      Sounds like this big crash only you know about will cause a lot of pain around the world. Are you doing anything about that apart from planing to profit from it?

      • JK1987 says:

        not the matter of just i know or not.
        it’s the big Crash technical i know inside out matters, i have not see anybody know about the details of the big Crash yet.

        big Crash is just the kick off of the Great Deflation, count on it.
        SPX will down 80% in a few years, will have big bounces along the path.
        down 80% is not the end of the world.
        Nasdaq crashed 80% 2000~2002, technology, invention still proceed, no stopping.
        Japan down 80%, life still went on, no big pain there. Japan still makes lots money from US during the past 3 decades.

        PS. you are a short seller on $FTSE, and you like the market to go down, right? don’t pretend you are a bull.

        anybody else on this blog call Big Crash? and any of them know why big Crash on the technical?
        cheers!

    • pooch77 says:

      Why is Nov 14 significant to a pullback?

  25. trading plan for tuesday is now in blog’s comments section:
    easytrade2.wordpress.com

  26. lcd00 says:

    Lots of nonsense posted in the last few hours, with tummyboy and his kindred spirits leading the way. tommyboys says:
    November 13, 2017 at 9:54 pm
    “There is no “corruption” in Trump outside of what the lib media constructs.” A Non-factual, delusional belief, tommy. Plenty of info supporting the contrary already, with more to come.

    Your earlier post (below) used the phrase “What about” or “how about” 4 times. Just last night, this very obfuscation technique, called “Whataboutism”, which originated back with the Soviets, was explained here, beginning at minute 7:15… http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/john-oliver-breaks-down-trumps-dangerous-speaking-tactics-w511598

    Techniques like what you used below makes you part of the problem, not the solution…
    Just because other people have historically committed crimes/misdemeanors doesn’t make another criminal free of guilt. That’s the logic of a five year old, which pervades nearly everyone on the Trump train as you illustrated:

    tommyboys says:
    November 13, 2017 at 2:53 pm
    WOW. You talking CORRUPTION?? Did you miss the Hilary getting questions in primary to pimp ‘ole Bernie? How about Hilary controlling the DNC finances against all others? How about selling out the USs Uranium to our biggest enemy – at least according the the DNC? What about the Podesta’s or the Pedo Weiner and Huma bleaching out emails AFTER requested by DOJ? You mean Obummer pushing through the largest tax on the middle class in history under the guise of Obummercare over a weekend when many were AWOL? How about Slick Willie bumping his pay schedule to $500k/speech in Russia after securing the Uranium sale to Putin? ….

    • purplember says:

      focus on facts: Democrats admitted to rigging election vs Bernie. But they ignore that sin and focus on Russia rigging election. FBI has said there is no evidence of 1 single vote being changed.

      • tommyboys says:

        There is always “meddling” in elections. I’d bet China, Saudi Arabia, Israel – prolly even Britain – has “meddled” in our elections for decades while the US has likely meddled in ALL of the important elections globally. But if you wanna find “collusion” or corruption follow the money. The Clinton “Foundation” saw a Russian deposit of $165M just after the U1 deal – prolly just a coincidence. The FBI head at that time – Mueller – is NOW heading up the farse “Russian investigation”? REALLY? Fox/Henhouse? Can anyone imagine what could be accomplished if all the energy and resourses into ALL of this narrative and myriad others was refocused into growing the economy and healthcare and veteran issues and so on… we’d all be on top of the world. Unfortunately elites have no interest in sharing the wealth and power.

        Trading wise – lightened up on micro caps (my forte’ – been long since ’10 different stocks in space) although remain long – just a bit less. Basically just shed margin which got way heavy past few years… Great day all!

    • fotis2 says:

      There was a time not so long ago when all the world news,sports and weather was covered in a single 30 minute news clip/day, people were informed on the facts and opinions formed based on that.Since then we’ve gone a long way with 100s of news channels reporting 24/7 and people, being lazy, let the MEDIA tell them what their opinion should be and then parrot that opinion to other individuals. GL

  27. Most of the posters on here have no idea about trading. Seems to be the site to regurgitate other useless market commentators, as part of confirmation bias depending on what trade ppl have on. Gold must be going to 1600 cause I’m long. Or Rut must be going up cause I’m long. Or I’m giving advice but have no positions, laughable, let alone the crash callers who are in a space all their own.

    • mcgcapital says:

      What do you expect people to write then? As long as they give a reason for being long/short and an invalidation point that’s what matters. The posters who just stick with the same call and never admit it was a wrong trade by telling us where to get out are the ones to avoid. As for the slant on my comment last night, I said last week the market is topping out and going lower but it will likely be slow progress so I’d rather sit it out as got other stuff to do than watching price all day long. Seen nothing to suggest that was wrong yet given we’ve pulled back from the high and sat in a half a percent range on SPX. If you knew how to trade you would know that not having a position is sometimes the best position…

      • vivelaamo says:

        People insult everyone on the blog yet offer nothing themselves! The irony.

        Well done on your Ftse short. Also think it’s best to sit out of US markets rather than short. Looks like it wants to go down but Dips keep getting bought and volume will start decreasing in to December.

        As for my uber bullish posts. Well they are just to keep balance to the blog and a select few.

        Enjoy the golf mate.

  28. I get the feeling quick short on equities is the right trade and then we are long for the march high, lot of time weighting for this wave to complete must have sucked in a lot of weak hands.

  29. locanbbs says:

    (REPEAT) UPDATE:
    T.C.: “This market is reluctant to move lower, but options expiration looms at the end of the week.” – Besides that there are FOUR market cycle bottoms scheduled this week, ending on Sunday, so that should limit upside activity till then!

    • locanbbs says:

      BTW, thanks, Tony, for your GREAT updates! Unfortunately most of us don’t seem to pay enough attention to them, prefering instead to spin our our own wool!

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $EURUSD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  31. mcgcapital says:

    The most obvious play here is still short. Most indices globally making lower highs and lows. This downwards chop could last another month. Apart from last year, pretty much every year there has been some weakness around this time of year, so not sure why seasonality is being construed as bullish. Most of the gains generally come in the last 2 weeks of December. Still expect spx 2540-50 to be the buy area for new highs into year end, then probably a big correction in January

    • allen kimble says:

      Amazing! Do you even trade? From here until the first or second week of December it will be higher highs and higher lows all the way to the upper right. You are delusional if you think shorting here is the right move. Complete delusion. Markets won’t truely top out until the First week of January. You best get your S___ together.

      Cheers

      • mcgcapital says:

        Profitably and professionally. As posted last week I’ve sat out this move, so no positions and no bias. Just how price is set up. Look outside US large cap and you’ll see weak breadth and markets trending lower at least short term. Probably quite hard to understand with a double digit IQ…

        • allen kimble says:

          I’ve seen your thoughts posted over and over, you’re obsessed with overseas markets and you are consistently bearish. I don’t see how you are profitable? Maybe you are another Phantom Phil.

          Anyways, if you can’t see the foolishness in being bearish now, I can’t help you.

          Good luck

          • mcgcapital says:

            I trade FTSE primarily as I live in the UK. Main reason for the interest in non US markets. Plus there tends to be a high degree of correlation between the different indices, so I’d be more confident about a bullish or bearish move if all boats were rising or falling together. My point here is, as of last Tuesday we got clear reversal signals on most indices and the only ones holding up are spx and Dow. So either everything else turns here and Dow/SPX rally to new highs or they give way and follow everything else down. I’d say that was the higher probability play. I’m not calling a crash.. just a 2-3% dip which is completely normal. As for my trades, I’m 50/50 long/short and don’t often hold for longer than a day or two. I’m fundamentally bearish but that’s not a trade set up so i don’t have money on that until price sets up in a supportive way, which it will at some point just got to be patient. Win rate is 60/40, with winners bigger than losers. So naturally I’m going to be wrong quite a lot but that’s not a problem. Too many people on here love highlighting their correct calls and pretend they are never wrong when in reality it’s how you manage the positions that matter. Phil is a proper trader, not sure why he takes so much stick. Anyways.. looking for 7300 FTSE then year end rally. Good luck

      • stcoleridge says:

        You really have become an insufferable bore.

      • lunker1 says:

        ENOUGH OF THE PERSONAL INSULTS…TROLL

    • Keep posting and ignore the noise MCG

  32. tony caldaro says:

    They have probably all been swayed by the far left, MSM, never Trumpers, rhinos. or even EWI.
    Easy to b bearish when the POTUS is the most disliked since Truman.
    Who, btw, was in charge early in the 1949-1966 Primary III

    • tommyboys says:

      +1000‼️

      • Bud Fox says:

        Well, the NYA200R percentage. Did crest, last Sept…that puts caution in the drivers
        seat. Most, would say, the SP market is not cheap, so yes. I am a bit cautious, too.

    • H D says:

      I think people were plenty bearish during Obama too. Just keeping it real. You guys are calling people swayed by far left, MSM, etc but literally quoting the far extreme alt-right word for word. It’s amazing you can see corruption of the past so clearly and not see what’s going on right now.
      If you guys could get over HRC losing and ignore the media we could actually just judge Trump on what he has said and done on its own merit…
      Cheers.

      • tommyboys says:

        There is no “corruption” in Trump outside of what the lib media constructs. Trump is a NON-politician stepping into the sewer of career – do nothing, paycheck collecting – swampers – on BOTH sides – attempting to enact some positive things for the middle class for ONCE. Its why he WON. Just because its one man against an embedded corrupt monster with limitless recourses doesn’t make HIM corrupt. The guy’s never had a drink on his brother’s advice and the swamp tried to make him a crack head during the campaign due to a sinus condition. They’ll stop at nothing as their power & control is at stake. The elitist left is pulling the wool over half the population who are blind to their agenda. Keep buying this monster’s agenda and soon we’ll all be slaves to the entrenched 1% secular elite. That’s their goal. All the best!

        • fenster6 says:

          Tommy Boys – you do realize that trumps campaign manager has just been arraigned for taking over $10 Million in payments from Russian sources as a lobbyist and not registering as a foreign agent, not revealing any of it, and evading taxes on it?

          If that is not the definition of the swamp, I don’t know what is. I suspect a lot of this admin will end up in jail.

        • allen1929 says:

          + 10

        • H D says:

          Tommy dude, you need an intervention. Word for word alt-right propaganda. Unplug, travel for a few weeks, get some world view. Nobody is enslaving anyone.

          Ok that’s my 3. Turn around Tuesday on deck. GL

    • scorp100 says:

      There are plenty of ‘Never Hillary’ and ‘Never a Democrat’ supporters too. I never liked HRC but that’s not a reason to get blindsided and support every act of GOP or DT. Each act should be judged on its own merit.

    • fenster6 says:

      Tony I think it is dangerous to mix politics and EW or any technical analysis.

      I had lots of friends who shorted the tripling of the market under Obama because he was a marxist or anti-business and used technicals to back up their bias. Needless to says they didn’t do well at all.

  33. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Where on earth did you find all these crash callers? This blog is almost like a magnet to them!

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