Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new highs then pullback, DOW +9

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2591 close. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2597, and then began to pullback. The market declined to SPX 2584 just past noon, and then tried to rally. At 3pm consumer credit was reported higher. In the final hour the SPX ended the day at 2591.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold slid $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots.

The market opened slightly higher today, rallied to a new high at SPX 2597, then pulled back 13 points. While the decline was sufficient for a pullback, it did not quantify as a wave. Could be just noise like October 30th, or there is more to go on the downside. A drop into the mid-2570’s would do the trick. Will wait to see what unfolds before speculating on a potential short term outcome. Still looking higher even if a further drop occurs. Short term support is at the 2575 pivot and SPX 2566, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum nearly hit oversold today, then bounced. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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86 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. learnedmylesson25 says:

    …and once again GDX had a chance to be bullish with a close over 23.Too much competition from from a 3 point SPX rally.Later.

  2. phil1247 says:


    from the BRICK wall longer term too
    you remember this one …yes ?
    still not too late to get on the short EURO bandwagon…
    YEN?……….fuggggedddaboudit buddy 🙂

  3. H D says:

    Do I have to turn my speakers up to hear the “swooshing” and “brick wall” sounds in CL? #widowmaker

    • kvilia says:

      Hey HD, on a serious note. Do you see a pullback in CL? Indicators are quite high but they can remain high – never mastered a skill to pick top or bottom.
      What do you read there?

    • fotis2 says:

      They only apply to the minute charts

      • phil1247 says:

        yes fotis ………….at least you get it buddy …………..swooshhhhhhhhhhhhhh

        • H D says:

          nothing personal, just think it’s careless to post oil to $6 and swoosh below 56.xx and then watch it spike rally and then say brick wall and it goes straight thru. People like your method so I’d get on point with your levels and language in as few posts as possible.

          No need to cut and paste the “” if’s “”, We see them.
          Have a good weekend all. Out.

  4. vivelaamo says:

    Well RUT has pulled back 3% now so it could be done.

    Kvilla is right. It’s too easy for bulls.

  5. kvilia says:

    You, bulls, are slackers. Shorting requires balls, precision and technical finesse. Being a bull – just BTFD.

  6. has to get over 2593 otherwise down to 2570 ish. in my opinion.
    2597-2584 13 points .618 retrace is 8 or 2592 would expect that to be hit. What it does after that who knows

  7. vivelaamo says:

    RUT nearly done. Get ready……

  8. fotis2 says:

    What you guys reckon is this The Top?

  9. pooch77 says:

    Waiting for 59-60 tna for long entry

  10. torehund says:

    Signs inflation creeping into Europe, books have been coocked for very long and statistics became politicised. Now its about to hit thr fan in Norway. Also polish migrant workers are moving back. Lack of all but beaurucrats, they are plentifull still 🙂

  11. fionamargaret says:

    Long oil …UWT…
    Long gold …UGLD
    plus TMF, UVXY…

  12. phil1247 says:

    russell futes in ext shorts…………………..swoosh down
    cl breaking ext long ……………………………swoosh down

    • phil1247 says:

      cl hanging around broken ext long…
      ….if no downside giddyup pronto
      taking profits
      and waiting post number to get back in
      boyze…………….handcuff……….of course

      • phil1247 says:

        bot TWM

      • phil1247 says:

        DWT……………oh mamma!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
        cl reached next ext support .
        …….if no blast down ……
        . taking partial profits

        • phil1247 says:

          56.45 is .50 ext long support……………look at that perfect bounce !

          • phil1247 says:

            ext held…..
            ….a little higher and 58.28 target is next

          • purplember says:

            fudge went long CL with tight stops. 56.45 area. it dropped and i was taken out by 1 penny WTF

            • kvilia says:

              Purple, you place stop under 61% line. Your stop was too tight.
              About me. Phil – what do I have to do to get a discipline for DH system including correct buys and stop under LIS? He’s told me that there is no such a think as overbought stoch and RSI. I sort of knew but refuse to believe.
              Need a fix for my brain.

              • phil1247 says:

                what is LIS?
                any way……….. CL is embedded on daily stochastic overbought yes….but locked in an uptrend so surprises will be on the
                upside especially when we are in extension longs
                so i was quick to take profits on DWT
                BRICK wall at 58.56 and target at 58.29 tells you that its getting late in the game here

  13. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Gold teasing again.Watch the Transports…further weakness should not be ignored.Good luck all.

  14. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…thank you for the Tuesday update….

  15. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony
    2544-2588-2566-2597 and you’ve said that a drop to mid 2570s is possible and then looking for higher highs. Is 2566 the limit for this scenario? Thx

  16. jobjas says:

    USO – EW analysis

  17. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    No update from RJ today….

    Thanks Tony…and everyone xx

  18. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Short-term downtrend established now, which will probably, as it has recently become “normal”, turn into sideways action.
    But FOUR (!) market cycle lows scheduled next week, culminating on the weekend. Therefore good bounce to be expected at latest on Monday 20th. The market is like a caged tiger, just waiting to break free, so it might happen earlier, say Thursday-Friday.
    spx hourly futures –

    • Mary773 says:

      The SPX high is 2597.02, and if that holds this will be the third consecutive turning point that Tony has nailed. People who do not trade the markets fail to realize that the odds of achieving such accomplishment are astronomical. In decades of trading I have not seen anyone else do it. Really well done.

      • stcoleridge says:

        I thought Tony was calling for a move to the 2632 pivot?

        • Mary773 says:

          Tony will speak for himself, but the original objective was the 2594 pivot which has so far contained the rally. This follows him catching the prior high and low almost to the point. If the 2594 pivot produces a decline, it would be the first time I have seen anyone identify three turning points in a row. Peter Eliades had a phenomenal hot streak in the late Eighties, but not that precise. Then there is Avi Gilburt, who has caught every turning point since the beginning of time, or so he claims.

  19. CampFreddie says:

    * Some bad news for equity bulls and some good news for bond bulls *
    Dennis Gartman has just closed his losing shorts on S&P and has gone short Bonds.
    This Guy is better than Newbie for contrarian indication, so you know what to do 😀

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  21. bfquant says:

    The ^RUT is probably not a bull flag anymore.

  22. Over 2493 bullish. Otherwise a down b up and c down to 2575 pivot. Then up to 2599-2614

    Have a good evening all

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