Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then lower, DOW +71

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher, the ECB started EQE tapering, and the markets gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2564, ticked up to 2566 in the opening minutes, then pulled back to 2560 by 10:30. The market had closed at SPX 2557 yesterday. At 10am pending home sales were reported unchanged. The market then rallied to SPX 2567 by 11am. Then spent the res of the day drifting lower to close at SPX 2560.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds dropped 4 ticks, Crude rose 50 cents, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP (est. +2.7%) at 8:30, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied up to SPX 2567, then drifted lower for the rest of the day. The last time the market gapped up at the open was Friday. When the market was on its way to Monday’s all-time high at SPX 2578. This adds some technical support to the idea that a Micro wave 5 rally is underway from yesterday’s SPX 2544 low. Should this be correct we would expect the market to reach the OEW 2594 pivot in the coming days to complete Minute wave iii of this Minor wave 5 uptrend. Just taking it one wave it a time. Short term support is at SPX 2544 and the 2525 pivot, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum nearly reached overbought today during the morning rally, then ended below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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150 Responses to Thursday update

  1. torehund says:

    https://imgur.com/a/CdgVS

    Commodities look good here if a 3 is in the cards. DAG an agricultural etf just finished an abc down as depicted.

    Like

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Tony are the blog timestamps based on your location?

    Like

  3. well, bears if micro 4 ended at 2544 then micro 5=1 at 2629 probably wont happen
    since 5th waves are typically shallow..618 of of micro 1 would be 2597, which is were im looking to short.
    Thank you all and have a great weekend

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    • allen kimble says:

      Shorting during the most bullish time of the year. Are you f-ing insane?

      Like

      • yea, its called minute 4 down to 2520 then minute 5 up to 2653 ish

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        • allen kimble says:

          You assume that this is true and fact. When the market continues going higher Tony will just change(adjust)the count to make the count valid ongoing. Meaning, the odds say you will lose on this bid to short.

          Good luck shorting during best time of the year

          Like

      • NEWBIE says:

        2,582.98, THE TOP, this # will be talked about for years to come.

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        • allen kimble says:

          Newbie….Just quick it already……Go back to your moms basement ok….Your video games are calling you……

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        • vivelaamo says:

          Added another long. Thanks buddy.I’ll be able to retire soon. I will definitely make a donation to this charity for you.

          http://www.wiesenthal.com/site/pp.asp?c=lsKWLbPJLnF&b=6212365

          Obviously I’m joking. I’m not going to make up profit amounts and my charity donations on a blog to look like a hero. That would be quite a sad thing to do.

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          • travis01 says:

            You keep taking digs at me bc you are a fool and need attention. But yes I donate a fair sum to a few charities including the one I chair nationwide. I mentor at-risk children, like you were. What you need to realize is that everyone knows you are a douchenozzle and a joke. But keep up the insults and grow up.

            Like

          • vivelaamo says:

            You don’t know me and I don’t know you. Yet you totally judge me from posts on a market internet blog! In your head I’m a lonely kid that craves entention so spends his evenings insulting people on the internet. While I’m not on here im on twitter and Facebook doing the same. If you knew my life you would totally change your tune. But hey that’s the beauty of the internet. The person you constantly defend has been insulting people for years. But that’s fine because he is in people head..

            Sometimes you need to take a step back and think is this guy really the person I think he is and does he do anything worse than the person you are always so quick to defend. Have a good weekend Travis. As you said, life’s too short. It’s just the internet. Nothing is real on here so don’t make that way. Hats off to your winnings and donations. Don’t tell strangers on a blog about it.

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          • travis01 says:

            Be a man and just don’t type this shit every day. No one here wants it. Every f’in day you insult multiple people, get called out for it, apologize, then do it again. You are the issue. I’m done with you.

            Like

          • vivelaamo says:

            just send me an email and I’ll explain to why I have issue with Newbies posts. Maybe then you’ll understand my point of view. Its amosingh@live.com.

            Like

          • CampFreddie says:

            Vive – give it a rest will you, taking cheap shots at a trader who gives some of his profits to charity is the most “UnCool” thing I have ever seen on this blog.

            Like

          • vivelaamo says:

            The guy has destroyed me with insults. Have you ready some of the things he has said to me! If he does donate profits then respect to that. But telling a person to get one up on him on a blog? come on!!

            Like

        • scottycj1 says:

          NEWBIE

          What was the sq rt of the low Mar 6th 2009

          Low price was 666.79

          Like

        • Wow, I have framed this post on my desk. you have to be right once and I want to capture it !!!!!

          Like

        • scorp100 says:

          Newbie: “You are emotional and market is acting against you”…lol

          I understand that you want cheap longs, but I am not selling.

          Like

  4. Following second quarter real GDP increasing 3.1 percent and 3.0% in the third quarter (advance estimate), the Fed should feel confident of pursuing its rate policy of one more increase this year and, possibly, three more next year ignoring the theatrics of who is likely to replace Janet. Based upon my own studies of real yields, I think we could see nominal ten year yields of 2.8% accompanied by volatility. With rates trending up, its likely the dollar and copper will continue to strengthen while gold will face headwinds although copper has not been sticking to script. While Tony feels bonds are in bear market, its still fair to ask how much of recent rate increases is front running of future Fed decisions, particularly measures to normalize its swollen balance sheet. If there is front running, it will only add to rate volatility.

    Like

  5. NEWBIE says:

    Negative Divergence everywhere but nobody cares because market will go up forever. LOL

    Like

    • vivelaamo says:

      Dude when’s the last time negative divergences worked? technical signals are self fulfilling because so many use them. Clearly nobody trades negative divergences so there success rate will be low.

      Am I wrong?

      Like

  6. vivelaamo says:

    For a few weeks now whenever Newbie posts the market will drop I have been adding longs. The profits have been staggering. Thanks Newbie. I Owe you pal.

    Have a great Friday and weekend all!

    Like

  7. EL MATADOR says:

    3 muy importante numbers coming up;
    Fibbo # 2584
    Fibbos 25(89)…..think 2, 5, 89 all fib #’s
    TC pivot 2594

    Next few days are going to be very very interesting, IMHO….cheers everyone

    Like

  8. Don Jenver says:

    Why are consumer staples so oversold?

    Like

  9. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Consider the reason Alphabet is up.
    “Google-parent Alphabet reported adjusted earnings per share of $9.57, well above a Thomson Reuters estimate of $8.33 a share, as the company saw a higher-than-expected surge in the volume of clicks on Google ads across the world, especially in Asia.”
    Seriously?Isn’t that an outrageous reason for a company to have a stock price over $1000?And a one day gain of 45 points?
    “Asia clicked some ads.”
    I’ve never clicked a Google ad in my entire internet experience.
    Granted,I’m a cynic on some of this tech and crypto.Tech seems,as much a case of taking the firm’s analytics as gospel–similar to Enron’s shenanigans,imho.Very little doubt is cast on the info they give.
    These results have GOT to be the truth,the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
    Throw in “Cloud technology” and everything that goes with that and who really knows?It’s mostly unmeasurable–just the opposite of buying a car or a house–but even those numbers can be fudged as needed.
    Crazy stuff.

    Like

  10. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Nasdaq looks like a wedge starting in April and this is wave c of 5 and the throwover
    I am still long HSCEI. Set new highs.

    Like

    • tommyboys says:

      Don’t see any well defined wedge and in fact today’s rally broke the one I saw. My only concern is does today’s gap have to fill. If melt up kick off then no. If exhaustion then likely.

      Like

      • STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

        Broke the b-d trend line today. Yes. But that’s normal in wave 5. Agree about the gap. Not possible to short today but I will short NDX if we get to 6280. 50 point stop to see a top.

        Like

      • Mary773 says:

        Before today, there has been no evidence of a melt-up. But if this is a breakaway gap in the Naz, Peter Brandt notes that the crowded short volatility trade could be obliterated not by a crash but by a vertical explosion. Too soon to tell, but the orderly advance looks a little less orderly now. NDX has not been this far above the daily BB in awhile. Could still be gap and crap, but the crap part is currently speculative. Until proven otherwise, I will stick with the hot analytical hand, and the hand is looking for a short term SPX high circa 2594.

        Like

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