Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -55

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%.
US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2575 close. Then it began to pullback. The pullback continued throughout the day until the SPX hit 2564 around 3:30. Then a tick up ended the day at SPX 2565.

For the day the SPX/DOW  lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.65%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots.

The market opened at an all-time high today, and then started to pullback. What was new with today’s trading pattern, was that the market opened at the high and then pulled back for the whole day. This is definitely something new, compared to the last few weeks. It may suggest Micro 3 topped this morning at SPX 2578, and a 30 +/- pullback for Micro 4 is currently underway. Next FED chair uncertainty, buy the rumor sell the news earnings, or simply profit taking. The media will come up with something. Short term support is at SPX 2548 and the 2525 pivot, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum was only oversold during today’s pullback. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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99 Responses to Monday update

  1. kvilia says:

    Strange talk around here. Do markets correct during bull markets? Is it possible to have 20% correction after uptrend is over? Even with low probabilities? Yes, some missed getting in @1800 (handful did), 1900, 2000, 2100. Will SPX correct to 1800? Not likely. Will it correct to 2100? Why not? It would still be a bull market, perhaps with a different count. And we all know that counts are not written in stone. Maybe you are right, maybe no so much but after such an advance, buying is off limits for a lot of smart folks. Selling short? Not so sure either, would rather wait for the confirmation. One thing is for sure – at this point nobody is missing anything. Patience will be rewarded.
    Thanks for the update. Hope you feel better.

    • tony caldaro says:

      A 20% correction after Major 1 completes, by most standards, is a typical bear market.
      Nothing unusual even during a Secular bull market.
      thanks Kvilia

  2. gary61b says:

    ES, I have an attraction level back up at 2570 a break above 2570.5 and it could go to 2573.5.

  3. Lee X says:

    Hey Thanks Tony

  4. asaraniti says:


    Trump is asking Congress to pick the FOMC chair…OMG! This has to be a rumor or fake news. but it’s moving the markets…Remember my bull trap call?

    • asaraniti says:

      NEWS FLASH Taylor is the nominee for the next chair of the FOMC. He didn’t like the QE programs and thought the fed funds rate should be higher much higher.

      • allen kimble says:

        It’s not actual YET…Stop with the rumors…’s just Rumors…Officially it will be announced on Nov 3rd

        People like you make things so dramatic…stop it!

        • asaraniti says:

          2 Updates.. Trump asked the Republican Senators at the luncheon, who should be the next chair. Taylor won…he was also on the short list ……1 survey last night gave him a 60% probability of getting the nomination.

          Simultaneously, just released, Corker, McCann and Paul are leaning new on the budget deal. I think tonight’s overnight session has the potential of being very interesting. If these updates are accurate.

        • asaraniti says:

          Allen You missed the point of my posts. 2 market moving events came out this afternoon, both potentially bearish for equities.

          1. I don’t think a Taylor nomination was priced in the market. Read his positions, I have, the equity market will not like him.
          2. The mere fact of Trump holding an “open vote” for the next chair is totally inappropriate.
          3. The probability of Yellen, the markets favorite choice as FOMC chair, getting re-appointed has been reduced dramatically.
          4. If Corker, McCann and Paul are “NO” votes on the budget bill, there goes the budget bill. No budget deal, no tax cuts just how our Gov. works. I don’t believe the market has priced in “NO” on the budget bill and no tax cuts bill signed into law in 2017.
          5. The scenic in me says the big boys are propping up the market into the close and there could be some selling in the overnight session….not a call…just an observation. No change in my analysis/charting.


    • H D says:

      Zero leadership. If it works, helps market rally, it was him. If it screws things up, it was the Senate who chose him….. CYA business mentality

  5. asaraniti says:


    While we are waiting for the paint to dry…I wonder if /ES just printed a bull trap in slow motion.? /ES just rallied up to it’s 61.8% SHORT. Simultaneously, /ES basically retested this mornings high and exceed it by 4 ticks and is to selling off. This time the $USD is weakening against the YEN, (GOLD surging) and YM and NQ are joining the /ES is this (bull trap?) pullback, You can use my morning chart for this analysis

    I’ll post a chart after the market closes if this analysis prevails. BTW, the zig-zag micro wave 4 may have morphed in a irregular flat?

    • gary61b says:

      Tony has been spot on so far, and thank you. asa, micro 2 took 10 days to finish, this one is only had two days to wiggle around. B waves are fun.

  6. fotis2 says:

    Gonna try one more short here CL stop 53.00 target 45.50

  7. stcoleridge says:

    Dow up 4.76% MTD. Clearly quite remarkable.

    • allen kimble says:

      Just think…..there is still two more months of seasonal fun!

        • phil1247 says:


          pretty soon you are going to have to extend the DOW monthly MACD scale

          it is heading …………….. ” off the chart “

            • pooch77 says:

              Tony do you think stocks rotate out of Dow back into naz and rut if and and when Dow ever tops or just stay in dow

              • pooch77 says:

                For the eest of 2017

              • tony caldaro says:

                yes, when the GDP slows down Tech will be back in favor

              • JK1987 says:

                Tony, yes, it’s my money & i responsible for it myself.
                my positions of seeing the market go down are at maximum in my whole trading history.
                i don’t kidding with my money with such an extreme amount, unless i am with 100% certainty of what i see.

                you were nice to me, i really hate to see oew all time excellent reputation goes to the other direction at this once in a life time unavoidable historical moment.
                i were trying to help and protect, but sounds like you are firm on your mind, no matter what have said or presented.
                on the day you back from hospital, i already envisioned such a historical day would be coming down the road, and suggested an elegant alternative.

                JK1987 says:
                September 15, 2017 at 10:25 pm
                Tony, great to see you come back.
                think in the shoes of yours – what’s the best for your health, not what we can keep on taking from you. you have contribute, guide, teach enough by all standard.
                it was Aug 5 when you had an overnight urgent matter.
                now you spent a couple of days in the hospital.
                the frequency is high, and the time is longer.
                you are full of wisdom
                have you considered at least reduced market update (once a week?) or semi-retirement?
                it’s good you can continue to guide us to beat the 4pm market update, but most important is your health.

                post #3 and done

            • JK1987 says:

              Tony, i can assure you, this is not P3 of any kind. on the contrary, it’s the end of the entire bull market of the entire Saeculum of 90 years, and we are into the Crisis cycle. eventually DOW should down 90% and more, and never recover from the final top zone here.

              spx 1810 definitely is not P2, and not P3 going forward.
              just like “The Saeculum” 4th turning i explained yesterday.
              if you wish, we can have a debate on this P2, P3 stuff. i am with 100% certainty of not P3 here, and not P2 at 1810.
              if not, then just let market speak, and we will see by year end. (1800 by end of Oct was too aggressive, not realized). spx 1800 by 2017 year end should be fairly easy achieved with the formation.
              i am bounded by 3 posts and other rules by oew, so some other day.

              • tony caldaro says:

                Hate to see you miss out on a Secular bull market.
                But … it’s your money

              • H D says:

                Dude! the only way we could even consider a new crisis cycle, end of Saeculum, would be if America elected a habitual lying game show host or reality TV star that debased our global standing, put our B52’s on 24 hour nuclear war notice and started picking fights with other countries on twitter. Never gonna happen.

              • vivelaamo says:

                So now 1800 by end of October was too aggressive? Have a feeling we’ll see a similar post on the last week of December.

                As Tony said. It’s your money.


        • JK1987 says:

          DOW is too strong, have to agree a strong October will lead to a Santa Claus rally.
          seems like tooth fairy was not too long ago, i love Santa!
          it’s the same thing happening in the previous “growth cycle”, something like this:

          seems to vaguely remember Lee posted large CAT puts sometime in September.
          here is the help for CAT & MMM (most of the points gain of today are by these two)
          CAT should be done.

  8. asaraniti says:

    Re-posting up here as I think this mornings analysis and chart are increasing in PROBABILITY…we’ll see.

    asaraniti says:
    October 24, 2017 at 9:37 am

    As of 10:38 EST, /ES is at an inflection point. If my analysis is correct, chart above, /ES is in wave “b of C” It is trading a 50% micro short…if it holds there are 3 targets below to watch…
    1. /ES will test a PT at 2561.83,
    2. fill Friday’s unfilled GAP @2560.25
    3. PT at 2557.78

  9. allen kimble says:

    Miners looking sickly here. A good short position back down to $21 on the GDX by Christmas seems highly likely Or Short NUGT for a bigger Christmas present

  10. tommyboys says:

    Strong insider buying again last week…

  11. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    October 18, 2017 at 7:51 am

    extensions of extensions …..looking for extension .50 to get back in
    this could be the beginning of the true melt up ….
    es is a side show ……… big money will be made in the dow


    got lots of flak last month about ” melt up “” before this “true melt up ” post

    how you like me now ?

    DOW 31000…. then infinity and beyond …………………………

    • phil1247 says:

      BOOM !
      23406 YM target HIT !

      now blast upwards or retrace to next extension long support ?

      • phil1247 says:

        note YM touched daily boll band so pullback to ext support is favored
        blasting thru would imply upward acceleration and
        the mother of all melt ups
        less risky rebuy at extension support for anyone who missed the train

  12. phil1247 says:


    bonds hit target and are at daily boll band

    got to take money off the table in TBT now
    .. if they blast down
    can always add mor TBT later

    gl… mr livermore 😉

  13. mjtplayer says:

    Dark cloud cover daily candle in the SPY yesterday, let’s see if we continue lower on yesterday’s reversal for a much needed and long overdue pullback.

  14. Quiet board this morning. Just playing around with what the pullback could look like. IMHO, the tape is still BULLISH on the daily chart and bearish on the 15-minute chart. There are 2 levels to watch to confirm whether or not SPX is trading in micro wave 4.

    1. c of B cannot exceed the 61.8 short @ /ES 2571
    2. the 61.8% micro long @ /ES 2561.50 must brake


    • Sorry, chart label should be “c of C”.

      • asaraniti says:

        From this mornings chart….
        c of B completed at the 50% short. Looking at the GAP as the next target.

        • asaraniti says:

          NQ and ES are trading in unison
          YM is trading in it’s own little world….Huge Divergence…rotation into high cap/volume stocks?

          • phil1247 says:

            probably armstrong is right
            with scared foreign money rushing into DOW
            forget SPX and NDX

            • phil1247 says:

              only concern asa
              is that es is in shorts now
              and could drag down the DOW

              • gary61b says:

                ASA nice chart, since micro 2 was a simple correction maybe and alternate for micro 4, like a stubborn bull, b waves are the teller.

              • asaraniti says:

                Phil..Only on the 15 minute chart and there are other 15 minute levels of support. My observation at this time is that volume is drying up in the broader market and traders are looking at other instruments to trade. Oil?, metals? bonds? currencies?

                Gary not looking so much as the shape as I am the level. If my analysis is correct so far it will be a small ZIG -ZAG .

                IMPORTANT Watching /ES 2560 as final 50% support. /ES has to break the 61.8% level 2555.77 to confirm to me a trend change.

    • asaraniti says:

      As of 10:38 EST, /ES is at an inflection point. If my analysis is correct, chart above, /ES is in wave “b of C” It is trading a 50% micro short…if it holds there are 3 targets below to watch…
      1. /ES will test a PT at 2561.83,
      2. fill Friday’s unfilled GAP @2560.25
      3. PT at 2557.78

  15. CampFreddie says:

    *Follow up and review of my trade idea on the Spanish Ibex 30 made recently @ 10114
    The train has still not left the station for anyone who wants to try for this Big Up swing trade.
    Of note is the drop out and return to the triangle setting up a small divergent bear -trap, this is a very bullish event imho. GLTA.
    Ibex 30 4 hour continuous :-

    Ibex daily Cont – Note long Divergence with 14 day RSI (green lines-black arrows)

  16. vivelaamo says:

    Rut bear flag STILL forming and BB squeeze. Big move coming….

  17. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Calling in sick today–flu.See you all tomorrow.

  18. torehund says:

    No worries all. 60 min RSI, latest 2 bottoms, huge delta price gain🐼 No real bear at sight✌

    • fionamargaret says:

      Now if you are a player, you must admire Martha’s ability in memorizing scores….Ravel, Bartok and Prokofiev are not the easiest of pieces.
      Richter whose piano playing is second to none, found himself in a blank place, and after that, he used sheet music….I think more for reassurance than anything else.x

  19. bouraq says:

    My first video is out. Technical analysis of 4 stock indices:

  20. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    I’ve been AWOL past 2 weeks as I was visiting my and my wife’s family in Europe; and returned y’day. But, not much happened the past 10 days other than that the S&P hit my preferred targets to the T both in time and price. Looks indeed like micro-3 topped.

    Nice to know that once in a while the market complies 😉

  21. bfquant says:

    Tc. Could you come up with a probability that int iv (having not even begun) actually completes this year?

  22. chrisk44342 says:

    Was today an outside day? It looks like it

  23. Don Jenver says:

    Are corporate bonds also in a bear market?

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