SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW -55
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%.
US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above Friday’s SPX 2575 close. Then it began to pullback. The pullback continued throughout the day until the SPX hit 2564 around 3:30. Then a tick up ended the day at SPX 2565.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.65%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots.
The market opened at an all-time high today, and then started to pullback. What was new with today’s trading pattern, was that the market opened at the high and then pulled back for the whole day. This is definitely something new, compared to the last few weeks. It may suggest Micro 3 topped this morning at SPX 2578, and a 30 +/- pullback for Micro 4 is currently underway. Next FED chair uncertainty, buy the rumor sell the news earnings, or simply profit taking. The media will come up with something. Short term support is at SPX 2548 and the 2525 pivot, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum was only oversold during today’s pullback. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Tony,
Strange talk around here. Do markets correct during bull markets? Is it possible to have 20% correction after uptrend is over? Even with low probabilities? Yes, some missed getting in @1800 (handful did), 1900, 2000, 2100. Will SPX correct to 1800? Not likely. Will it correct to 2100? Why not? It would still be a bull market, perhaps with a different count. And we all know that counts are not written in stone. Maybe you are right, maybe no so much but after such an advance, buying is off limits for a lot of smart folks. Selling short? Not so sure either, would rather wait for the confirmation. One thing is for sure – at this point nobody is missing anything. Patience will be rewarded.
Thanks for the update. Hope you feel better.
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A 20% correction after Major 1 completes, by most standards, is a typical bear market.
Nothing unusual even during a Secular bull market.
thanks Kvilia
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ES, I have an attraction level back up at 2570 a break above 2570.5 and it could go to 2573.5.
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Hey Thanks Tony
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NEWS FLASH!
Trump is asking Congress to pick the FOMC chair…OMG! This has to be a rumor or fake news. but it’s moving the markets…Remember my bull trap call?
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NEWS FLASH Taylor is the nominee for the next chair of the FOMC. He didn’t like the QE programs and thought the fed funds rate should be higher much higher.
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It’s not actual YET…Stop with the rumors…..it’s just Rumors…Officially it will be announced on Nov 3rd https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/trump-asked-for-senate-show-of-hands-on-who-he-should-make-fed-chair.html
People like you make things so dramatic…stop it!
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2 Updates.. Trump asked the Republican Senators at the luncheon, who should be the next chair. Taylor won…he was also on the short list ……1 survey last night gave him a 60% probability of getting the nomination.
Simultaneously, just released, Corker, McCann and Paul are leaning new on the budget deal. I think tonight’s overnight session has the potential of being very interesting. If these updates are accurate.
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are leaning “NO”…
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Allen You missed the point of my posts. 2 market moving events came out this afternoon, both potentially bearish for equities.
1. I don’t think a Taylor nomination was priced in the market. Read his positions, I have, the equity market will not like him.
2. The mere fact of Trump holding an “open vote” for the next chair is totally inappropriate.
3. The probability of Yellen, the markets favorite choice as FOMC chair, getting re-appointed has been reduced dramatically.
4. If Corker, McCann and Paul are “NO” votes on the budget bill, there goes the budget bill. No budget deal, no tax cuts just how our Gov. works. I don’t believe the market has priced in “NO” on the budget bill and no tax cuts bill signed into law in 2017.
5. The scenic in me says the big boys are propping up the market into the close and there could be some selling in the overnight session….not a call…just an observation. No change in my analysis/charting.
.
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asa-Understandable …Good luck
Cheers
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Zero leadership. If it works, helps market rally, it was him. If it screws things up, it was the Senate who chose him….. CYA business mentality
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OBSERVATION…
While we are waiting for the paint to dry…I wonder if /ES just printed a bull trap in slow motion.? /ES just rallied up to it’s 61.8% SHORT. Simultaneously, /ES basically retested this mornings high and exceed it by 4 ticks and is to selling off. This time the $USD is weakening against the YEN, (GOLD surging) and YM and NQ are joining the /ES is this (bull trap?) pullback, You can use my morning chart for this analysis
I’ll post a chart after the market closes if this analysis prevails. BTW, the zig-zag micro wave 4 may have morphed in a irregular flat?
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Tony has been spot on so far, and thank you. asa, micro 2 took 10 days to finish, this one is only had two days to wiggle around. B waves are fun.
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Gonna try one more short here CL stop 53.00 target 45.50
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buddy on dec contract the last high is 53.12…. why not give it 12 cents more ?
i am not fooling with it till big triangle resolves … gl
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Why picking the top? Sep high – 52.86. Should CL break it, it goes to 54 at least.
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If it was trending I wouldn’t but for a year and some just been going sideways trade the range
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Dow up 4.76% MTD. Clearly quite remarkable.
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😀
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Or should I say “annualise that”!
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Just think…..there is still two more months of seasonal fun!
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Tony………..
pretty soon you are going to have to extend the DOW monthly MACD scale
it is heading …………….. ” off the chart “
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P3 action
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Tony do you think stocks rotate out of Dow back into naz and rut if and and when Dow ever tops or just stay in dow
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For the eest of 2017
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yes, when the GDP slows down Tech will be back in favor
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Tony, yes, it’s my money & i responsible for it myself.
my positions of seeing the market go down are at maximum in my whole trading history.
i don’t kidding with my money with such an extreme amount, unless i am with 100% certainty of what i see.
you were nice to me, i really hate to see oew all time excellent reputation goes to the other direction at this once in a life time unavoidable historical moment.
i were trying to help and protect, but sounds like you are firm on your mind, no matter what have said or presented.
on the day you back from hospital, i already envisioned such a historical day would be coming down the road, and suggested an elegant alternative.
JK1987 says:
September 15, 2017 at 10:25 pm
Tony, great to see you come back.
think in the shoes of yours – what’s the best for your health, not what we can keep on taking from you. you have contribute, guide, teach enough by all standard.
it was Aug 5 when you had an overnight urgent matter.
now you spent a couple of days in the hospital.
the frequency is high, and the time is longer.
you are full of wisdom
have you considered at least reduced market update (once a week?) or semi-retirement?
it’s good you can continue to guide us to beat the 4pm market update, but most important is your health.
cheers!
post #3 and done
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Tony, i can assure you, this is not P3 of any kind. on the contrary, it’s the end of the entire bull market of the entire Saeculum of 90 years, and we are into the Crisis cycle. eventually DOW should down 90% and more, and never recover from the final top zone here.
spx 1810 definitely is not P2, and not P3 going forward.
just like “The Saeculum” 4th turning i explained yesterday.
if you wish, we can have a debate on this P2, P3 stuff. i am with 100% certainty of not P3 here, and not P2 at 1810.
if not, then just let market speak, and we will see by year end. (1800 by end of Oct was too aggressive, not realized). spx 1800 by 2017 year end should be fairly easy achieved with the formation.
i am bounded by 3 posts and other rules by oew, so some other day.
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Hate to see you miss out on a Secular bull market.
But … it’s your money
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Dude! the only way we could even consider a new crisis cycle, end of Saeculum, would be if America elected a habitual lying game show host or reality TV star that debased our global standing, put our B52’s on 24 hour nuclear war notice and started picking fights with other countries on twitter. Never gonna happen.
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So now 1800 by end of October was too aggressive? Have a feeling we’ll see a similar post on the last week of December.
As Tony said. It’s your money.
Cheers
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DOW is too strong, have to agree a strong October will lead to a Santa Claus rally.
seems like tooth fairy was not too long ago, i love Santa!
it’s the same thing happening in the previous “growth cycle”, something like this:
https://gyazo.com/3c10d1716d01ae80332330e9d5061e70
seems to vaguely remember Lee posted large CAT puts sometime in September.
here is the help for CAT & MMM (most of the points gain of today are by these two)
CAT should be done.
https://gyazo.com/b47203d106d970a4d5299631343b4ad9
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Wait a minute JK did you just flip flop again? What happened to SP 1800?? WOW…
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Is he being sarcastic,looks in 69 toppep Nov 10 and skidded down into eoy
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Ah those charts are NOTHING alike – ZERO. Look at the months leading up to November. WHOLE different ballgametoday. Watch who you listen to on the web – for SURE! 🙄
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Do you just scour through historic charts until you find something that fits your bearish argument?
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Wasnt me JK
Thats straight up fake news
Keep my name out of your posts
Thank you
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LoL… LEEEEEEEEEEEEEE…
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😀
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