Thursday update

SHORT TERM: DAX/OPEX influenced gap down opening, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower and the Philly FED was reported higher. The market gapped down at the open for the first time since September 5th: the day the SPX hit 2447. The market opened at SPX 2551, bounced to 2556, then hit 2548 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 2561 yesterday. At 10am leading indicators were reported lower. After hitting SPX 2548 the market started to rise. The rally continued throughout the day. In the last hour of trading the SPX turned positive at 2562, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds added 6 ticks, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: options expiration, plus existing home sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today, dropped to SPX 2548, 16-points from yesterday’s high. Then rallied all the way back to turn positive. Looks like the Nano 3 had finally ended at SPX 2564, and Nano 4 may have ended at SPX 2548. From the Micro 2 SPX 2417 low we now have: 2455-2428-2564-2548-xxxx? Short term momentum was extremely oversold at today’s lows. New highs would now confirm Nano 5 underway aiming to complete Micro 3. Short term support is now at SPX 2548 and the 2525 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2564 and the 2575 pivot. Short term momentum rebounded from extremely oversold to above neutral. Best to your opex trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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115 Responses to Thursday update

  1. David Geary says:

    Far enough for now.

  2. Fun fact. We’ve had 13 days this year where the ES (9:30 EST) opened up more than 6 points from the prior days close, and traded down less than 4 points from the open. In every instance the ES was up at least 10 points from the open sometime intraday. Doesn’t look like it is going to make it today though…still time left. open > close[1] + 6 and low + 4 > open

  3. fotis2 says:

    $ shooting to the upside correlations correlations for next week/month/year end.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Trump wants it to go to 4000 so he can say ”I doubled the Market”

  5. JK1987 says:

    largest ever herd Crash coming, sooner than later.
    off the cliff, no warning.
    chart of crash wave, catalyst.

    • phil1247 says:

      sorry J K ………..
      the only crash i see is in

      TMF …….

      and the inverse stock ETFs
      stocks could double before they crash
      like NDX in 2000

      • phil1247 says:

        you are ignoring the most basic of principles

        for something to start going down…………………………
        it has to stop going up !

      • JK1987 says:

        say sorry to the herd
        because of the 100% certainty of the coming biggest herd Crash,
        unwillingly, but i still took minor loss of majority of my TMF holding, and into the best crash performer of the coming biggest herd Crash.

        • NEWBIE says:

          Jk, tell me more about your vix / uvxy targets.

          • JK1987 says:

            NEWBIE, in the previous largest crash, volatility index went up 836% in just 6 days.
            with this standard, vix 9.56 low can get to 80.
            but since this will be the biggest ever herd Crash, vix 100 is probable.
            no bull or herd can ever understand or imagine these kind of stuff.
            this largest herd Crash will be the first time ever, biggest ever. there will be no example you can find.
            ever heard of herd Crash. if not, you hear it here first!
            look at the chart, and the catalyst above the chart.
            post #3, done posting

        • mcgcapital says:

          Find us an example where we made an all time high and then just collapsed? I’d say many people are bearish on fundamentals but they aren’t selling because it’s not rewarded. As Phil says, it’s needs to stop going up first. If it can range trade with increasing volatility for a few months then selling it would get me interested. Until then it’s scalps until this thing stops, which it will

          • NEWBIE says:

            Mcgcapital, there doesn’t need to be an example in history, it can just happen.

            • mcgcapital says:

              Anything can happen.. but if it’s not happened before then the odds are low as speculation has been around a long time. Certainly not worth trying to trade something that’s an outside bet anyway. I’d love it if it came as I’m bored of this market tbh, but just don’t think it will until next year at the earliest

    • ok for you and Newbie. I just shorted SPXS 33.98

  6. SP 2584= Fib secuence nunber

  7. phil1247 says:

    target about 30 points higher
    if we dont blast thru……….
    . dumping all DIA and calling it a week
    good luck all !

  8. phil1247 says:


    i am no livermore ..
    .had to take profits on half TBT
    profits too juicy and ZB retesting fingernail support

  9. nano 5 equals nano 1 at 2585
    looking to short at 2582-2585 today or monday

  10. fotis2 says:

    Whatsup with Gold?Bounce 1266 DB or close bellow weekly 20ma for 1215?

    • phil1247 says:

      dead money like the yen……………going nowhere

      • fotis2 says:

        If yesterdays low is taken out there’s some pips to be made next week short term King Chicken 😉

        • phil1247 says:

          ha!… sounds like you are watching ira buddy
          …outside day up….if that low taken out..within 2 days … its is bull trap
          any way cycle low not due till mid november
          i am not fooling with it till then

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Market topped,, time for bears to eat..

  12. Lee X says:

    Ahhhhhhh the internet 😉

    Thx Tony

  13. gary61b says:

    ES, nano ii was a simple correction nano iv should alternate and be complex… a extended flat is complex… its a ways off from that coming to light, lots of bullish euphoria. the 2562 level is a possibility of returning to, touch of upper trend of ED and spx gap fill. and a level that price has not pivoted from.

  14. phil1247 says:

    SPX target for today…………………… 2581 ………

    maxed out on margin

  15. NEWBIE says:

    So SPX is up 0.22%… 30 minutes before the market opens and this is getting the Bulls all fired up?

  16. phil1247 says:

    10 year treasury notes …
    . canary in the mine
    dying a horrible death
    but TLT …and ZB ……………. still hanging on by a fingernail

    Tore ..
    if BONDS dont crash thru support this am …..
    got to take some profits in TBT today …………..yes ???

  17. Good morning traders… Expect a bit of volatility this morning. This could be one of those days that computer algo trading, at some point today, could be Monday, might ignore that spike up, as though it never traded. There is no way of knowing in advance. Need to watch how /ES trades around these 50%, 61.8%, and profit targets. Assuming “it traded, it counts,” highest probability is that
    /ES will fill the GAP and the rally to the 2 profit targets above.


    • BTW, regarding my statement above, on computer algo trading…this is for all assets classes, equities, bonds, currencies, precious metals be careful. Don’t recommend any limit orders today.

    • gary61b says:

      Thx asa, hypothetical: ES drops to 2560 by the open and spx never exceeds new high and both PB for wave c of nano iv to complete, that would throw a few off. :0

      • Gary, I am taking a wait and see attitude. Your observation could happen and yes, that would be bearish. As far as EW, only trading hours counts towards an analysis. I think SPX is Nano wave 5 for other reasons as well.

  18. mcgcapital says:

    Well got that wrong last night with the massive ramp! But my FTSE analysis is unchanged as despite everything going the bulls’ way the last few weeks 7550 is holding like a brick wall. Sterling has been weakening but in an orderly way, with the moving averages all still bullish I think we’re more likely to see a move back to $1.35 than below $1.30 which should be bearish for FTSE. As soon as the US stops with the ramping every day this should be about to head down to 7400. Options expiry couldn’t break resistance either so got my eye on whether one day we can form a shooting star on the Dow. Today would be a good time to do it but not holding my breath

    • mcgcapital says:

      Would also say on the Dow, daily RSI is now 88 which is the same as on 1st March when there was a huge blowoff on Trump’s state of the union address. There was also a similar news driven move on the Dax in May with the French elections. Both of these marked a short term top and led to multi week pullbacks. Point is, it feels so bullish when these type of things happen but the euphoria often marks the end of the move. I’m thinking top somewhere around here, retest of 2500 area on SPX in the coming weeks and then new highs again into year end

      • weekly and monthly rsi is even more stretched now then march.Keep in mind when the bull began the dow broke out of a long base and had been actually weaker prior. The dow goes up 2x or 3x the other indexes daily the past few weeks.

  19. Mary773 says:

    SPX again supported at its daily 15 sma, which has contained the pullbacks since 9/5. The breaking of that moving average would be a warning signal that the rally from 8/21 has ended.

  20. vivelaamo says:

    Wave Skills V Amatuer Luck. Have a good day all.

    NEWBIE says:
    September 6, 2017 at 6:09 pm
    Futures!! We are starting a c wave down to 2300, that kicks off tommorow. If your long you in trouble squirrelly.

  21. Lee X says:

    Pivot time

  22. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Up one thousand Dow points tomorrow…lol

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      The only question is,what time and how much,does gold get hammered.Will 1266 hold,is another question.That makes two questions.Rhetorical questions–both of them–btw.

    • torehund says:

      Trump creating peace and gives away helicopter money FOR YOUR POCKETS 🙂

      • vivelaamo says:

        Newbies long call yesterday came at the perfect time. Woke up to a sea of blue. Thanks Newbie. Your skills with waves are very lucky for me.

      • tommyboys says:

        Tore either we let congress have our money to spend as they choose or the people keep their hard earned income to use as they best see fit. Which would you choose? Which is best? Which is right? Now only if Trump can force Congress to dial back the free spending of OPM!! Sooner/BETTER!

  23. Good evening traders. My overnight session analysis…../ES just filled today’s gap and tested its profit target at the close. While I can’t rule out a quick rally to the higher profit target, eventually, I expect a pullback to fill tomorrows GAP (75% probability) and it’s associated 50% LONG. Break the 61.8% LONG and we retest today’s lows.

    Interesting factoid and a conspiracy theory…Janet Yellen met with Trump today about her appointment for another term as head of the FOMC. Trump scheduled to announce his decision in 2 weeks. It would not surprise me if we found out that Yellen propped up the equity markets so Trump would re-appoint her…OK, OK, OK and to provide a buffer so when the market tanks when the FOMC raises rates and announces a further draining of liquidity from the system at the December FOMC meeting. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to the equity markets when Yellen gets the word that she is getting the boot within 2 weeks.


  24. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: “Up, up and away….” – After the “stress” of two last market cycle bottoms (for a while) on the 17th and 19th (today), the markets are silently “melting” upwards in the still of the night!
    spx hourly futures–simplified count (“SEW”) on right–

  25. Thanks Tony. Futures up 11 pts……………SPX 2573.50

  26. Thanks Tony
    Interesting to follow what will happen on W5000
    this pattern(ascending broadening wedge)has a good record of breaking down(75%)

  27. torehund says:

    Minus 15 on the rsi passed on Tonys 60 min chart. Looking back such readings have signified a bottom. That said the macd lines will have to keep going up in order to avoid a significant sell-off. Never say never but a lower reading sub zero on the macd would not be an unexpected happening. Good luck bulls and bears alike🔚

  28. Mary773 says:

    Thank you, Tony (although you anticipated nano 4 would be 15 points and apparently it was 16 points. I forgive you.). Your analysis has been extraordinary.

  29. aahmichael says:

    I look at many different indexes to try to get clarity on the count. W5000 and SPXEW clearly show that today’s low completed a flat that began at the 10/5 high. It was an expanded flat in SPX. The drawn out B wave explains the low volume, choppy, overlapping, and extremely small range days of the past 2 weeks. It also mimics the late July/early August time frame just prior to the thrust and reversal on 8/8. Oddly enough, the DOW was also going parabolic at that time, while everything else was stuck in mud. I have no clue how to count the DOW, other than t-minus 3,2,1, ignition, blastoff.

  30. mcgcapital says:

    I’ve had a look back through 20 years of data on the daily chart for the major indices and I can’t find anything quite like today’s candle. Bulls are going to say it’s a sign of strength that we recovered to breakeven but I’m not so sure. My main market is the FTSE and I’ve been quite confident it’s turning over at 7550 for a retrace down to 7400. The main complication is that the US won’t stop rallying so it’s hard to sustain a decline. I just have a feeling that we’re going to see today’s rally retraced and not new highs. Feels like the pattern when we hit an area on the SPX and trade sideways. I seem to remember we got stuck at 2470-80 for ages and there was a day we sold off 20 handles before retesting the top. Risk reward is to the downside unless they can push through to new highs and continue the rally tomorrow

  31. phil1247 says:


    new highs ahead …………
    perfect bounce off extension long support ………….
    target 6165

  32. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony

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