Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy day, DOW -32

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower, and the PPI was reported higher. The market opened 4-points below yesterday’s SPX 2555 close, dipped to 2549 in the opening minutes, then started to rebound. By 1:30 the SPX was back 2555. After that the market headed lower again, hitting SPX 2548 in the last hour of trading. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2551.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped 65 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, then consumer sentiment and business inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today, rebounded back to the all-time high, just like yesterday, then pulled back in the afternoon. After establishing a new ATH on Tuesday at SPX 2555, the market has hit it three more times without breaking through. Time for a pullback? Negative divergences on the SPX hourly/daily RSI, DOW hourly RSI, and NAZ daily RSI. Time for a pullback? JPM and C beat time/bottom line today but their stocks were lower. Time for pullback? I’m sure you can come up with a few others. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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142 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    • mjtplayer says:

      A beautiful woman with talent; very sexy…..

    • JK1987 says:

      Warren Buffett decides not to do second wager against hedge funds, citing his age

      too bad, Buffett not to take wager anymore.
      don’t need 10 years, one year is more than enough.
      probably age is an exit excuse. maybe he sees what’s coming with his level of sophistication on financials.
      i would bet the farm with Buffett if his bet opens, one year is good enough. any term.

      to me, spx sub 1800 is a certainty, and that’s only the beginning.
      i would take wager on sub 1800 with Buffett.
      by October is very aggressive, but is very possible.
      by year end is a certainty.
      don’t know why nobody can not see it coming.

      imho, long on oil and gold are very risky bets here. if really want to do it, must have stop because the risk is enormous as i see it coming. as i don’t spend much time on these two, not as certain as equity market. but the probability is very high.
      remember one thing, deflation!

      as this stage, i only like usd and treasury bond as long, till their bubble formation completes. then will burst.
      post #3


      • fionamargaret says:

        My bullish charts on TLT/TMF did not seem foolish today Jack.
        Hope you have a nice weekend…x

      • vivelaamo says:

        I’d love to take that wager with you we won’t be sub 1800 by end of the year. I would even wager we will not see sub 1800 in 2019 either. I’d bet my house on it.

        Its great how you can say anything on the internet isn’t it? Have a Good weekend.

  2. travis01 says:

    Tis another Twitter day here I see…

  3. Jack Sparrow says:

    so all the dh folks how are you trading with everything jumbled up- 2points here, three points there etc etc everything overlapping

  4. kvilia says:

    This board does not like short sellers 😉
    Reporting on CL. It appears it broke all opposing short setups and is clear to launch upward. I am still in cash after booking profits on Tue and looking for a good entry into UWT. CL may dip into 49.93 or not – will find out on Monday – but the trend is clearly up now. Target – 54.60.
    Have a good weekend.
    Tony – have good tests and good weekend.

  5. gary61b says:

    ES one more trip down with 2548 to hold then up to the 61.8 level, maybe not all of that move today

  6. phil1247 says:

    steve miller just called
    and you know what he said …………..right ?

    Thanks Tony………..hope all is well

    see ya next week !

  7. JK1987 says:

    with those 2 events you posted for checking, i see you know what’s going on about the market.
    i don’t think anyone here, no matter Short Term or LT bullish or bearish, have a slightly clue about what you are talking about.
    i do understand those two completely, and how it was made, and their differences in technical and underlying basis, and all the details, and where we are now and going. i also saw your comparison of economy of those era and now, right spot on.
    2 nights ago, i listed where all assets are now, and going in the future. all are my original work. you said i did not sign it. i posted it, meaning it’s my work.
    you have 40 years trading experience, those are the wisdom from the experience. people should just listen. Jeff Saut’s experience said, when smart people speak, we listen.
    i only have less than one tenth of your trading experience. but i have vision, inherited. and i am young and energetic. 🙂

    the same group of people did the same to me. i paid a price for this blog. won’t be anymore.
    and my conclusion and way of coping it, as posted on 0928.
    Luke 6:26

    Jim Rogers said: “The more people ridicule and question you, the more likely you are
    probably onto a good thing no matter what it is”.

    i posted on Oct 6, saying 10y t. yield is done. it’s my analysis and vision by saying that.
    i see FED will not hike rate in December, and 2018 going forward. instead, FED will reduce rate in 2018 and down the road, toward or equal to zero for the next 3 decades, just like Tokyo did for the past 3 decades. Tokyo were forced to do so, so would NY for the decades to come.

    Yellen Says Inflation Shortfall This Year Is a ‘Mystery’,
    if she does not have the vision of what’s going on and saying mystery, she does not qualify for the job. hence their policy will become disaster.
    i can vision it, it’s the Great Deflation / Debt Deflation coming, just like Tokyo.
    someone says NY is not like Athens, because Athens only import and the scale of economy is smaller. what does NY have? NY have financials and exporting financials to the world. the scale of the NY financials is much dangerous than Athens in all aspects. NY is creating financials armageddon, not only for itself, but also for the whole world. the bigger you are, the more damage you will create. 2008 was a smaller scale one, peak only lasted a year, price earning was at norm, not min. just a blip in the cycle and not in the cycle, no impact for the long term cycle. the real K-cycle is much colder than that, it will be freezing for a long long time.

    talk about my favorite treasury bond. it’s on the way making extraordinary bubble formation, then implode, not most people can understand that. the form is there.
    where is treasury bond now?
    put a simple analogy, it’s in the stage of NDX early 2017.
    treasury bond truly is equity correlated, people need to have the vision to see it, which majority of people do not have, and i don’t see anybody here yet. it’s all about inflation / deflation.
    wonder why Tokyo is so depressed for the last 3 decades? because it’s zero rate and deflation that they could not walk out of it for 3 decades. at Tokyo 38900 peak, who would think Tokyo would start to entering into the great deflation? Tokyo people were celebrating the 38900 at that time, never knew what was coming. because none of Tokyo people have the vision to know.
    here, right now, NY people are celebrating the equity new ATH everyday like Tokyo people did in 1989. none of NY people have the vision to know what’s coming. NY is on the same path as Tokyo did at the 38900 peak, and there will be no tool can fight for it, only time can heal. bernanke studied so much about the Tokyo case, i don’t see him have the wisdom or capability to cope with the coming Great Deflation, and it’s Debt Deflation that no one can fight with.

    Ecclesiastes 3:1
    To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven

    post #1 of 3

    • vivelaamo says:

      Hi Jk. I agree 100% with this :

      ‘Jeff Saut’s experience said, when smart people speak, we listen’

      I listen to both Jeff Saut and Tony Caldero. Two people you decide to ignore even though they both have years of experience.

      All the best.

    • Mary773 says:

      ~Jim Rogers said: “The more people ridicule and question you, the more likely you are
      probably onto a good thing no matter what it is”.~

      If I had added just one long S&P futures contract every time Jim Rogers has trash talked this bull market, I would now be the world’s first trillionaire.

    • mcgcapital says:

      People attack you because you’re inconsistent in what you write and have a blatant disregard for risk management. As you’ve said here, you’re relatively inexperienced so probably will take some losses for it to sink in so you get it. Also, whilst having and stating any particular view isn’t a problem for most people, what you’ve written just seems completely unrealistic. What economic scenario are you modelling to come up with a 90% decline in US equities? The US market is overvalued on many measures but it’s still the world’s largest economy and market, and the dollar is the reverse currency, so it tends to outperform during bear markets as it’s a safe haven. I can’t see any scenario that could play out that will get you to your targets unfortunately. Bear markets are more than possible and that could mean a 20, 30, 40 or 50% hit depending on what caused it. But well before it got to a 90% drop there would undoubtedly be some sort of government intervention and we’d go up again.

      • phil1247 says:


        the dollar is going to be the ” reverse” currency 😉
        but is due for a rally soon

        also his spx 1800 call by end of OCT is just bonkers

      • vivelaamo says:

        Continous posting of views which are polar opposite to the host of the blog he keeps posting them on.

        You have to wonder what his motive is because nobody in their right mide would really believe we are crashing below 1800 in the next 2 weeks. Let alone somebody who apparently does a lot of analysis.

        I think he is long really. It’s all a little game.

      • JK1987 says:

        under Luke 6:28
        i reply you once and for the last time with my post #2

        “People attack you”
        mostly only you !
        it’s because of your thinking of my arrogance.

        i initiate TMF, UVXY and one non publish position originally. then later initiate large shorts on ndx rut spx, all documented here.
        even though UVXY currently down 25%, i am comfortable with it. because i know how fast UVXY can rise and how soon it can rise.
        currently i am under on uvxy, spx, ndx shorts.
        positive on tmf long, rut short.

        spx sub 1800 still is the target by end of October. how high UVXY would be when my VIX target of 100 hit! yes, VIX 100 is my target.

        do you really know why i have stop on my 40% main holding TMF, and NO STOP on the rest positions? i don’t think you can ever understand. you don’t have the vision, you just going with the herd mentality.
        besides death and tax are sure thing, there is one more sure thing, 100% certainty, going on with my vision, my investments, IMPOSSIBLE to be wrong. yes, i use the word, IMPOSSIBLE! it’s not something you or ordinary people can understand.

        i do love Tony’s work.
        i did covered all my short positions when i studied & adopt oew 15-year cycle. i did give it a chance and executed it.
        but only took me about one week, i found out the details of the mis-matches of past oew P2 & P3 (reasons all posted here). ask Tony about it, not persuade by the answers.
        and later on i posted the cycle should be, and i do not think oew 15-year bull cycle from here is possible at all, it’s because one major thing oew very possibly missed on the 15-year bull cycle (i won’t specify here, let time to prove it, and should be in a not too distant future).
        only took one week to go back my original plan, and will not change based on what i visioned, it’s all clear from all aspects.

        • vivelaamo says:

          ‘it’s not something you or ordinary people can understand’.

          Patronise the rest of us as much as you want. But seriously stop patronising the host of the blog.
          It’s not cool or clever.

          I hope you have the decency to return on November 1st and admit you got it very wrong.

        • mcgcapital says:

          ‘NO STOP’ equals amateur. It’s you who doesn’t understand. No projection is certain, we’re dealing with probabilities here and using no stop implies we’re dealing with certainties. If you’re so right that it’s going down big then it shouldn’t go up should it? So no harm in putting a stop on and protect yourself.

          Go do some stochastic modelling and report back.. what you’re suggesting would probably be a 10 sigma event (I.e. Close to impossible). If you want to make that your median outcome then it just shows you’re an idiot.

    • micky says:

      Thanks for the entertainment JK

    • stcoleridge says:

      How’s that 25% of portfolio position in UVXY purchased at 21.80 working? Down 24% at current prices which equates to a 6% drawdown on your “portfolio”. I’ll use that word advisedly. Oh yes I forgot. That 25% weighting got magically downgraded to 5%. Revisionist history is a wonderful thing.

  8. CampFreddie says:

    Just wanted to restate my view posted on 26-Sept that those recent lows (2488/92), will imo be the last “Lows” of 2017, and I still stand by this view. Glta.

    • vivelaamo says:

      I agree. But I do think there is an outside chance they get tested.

    • allen kimble says:

      I think you’re going to be proven correct. There is some type of gap near 252 on the SPY that I think gets tagged by the end of the month but after that “FILL” it should be a stampede into the end of the year to the upside.

      Kudos to you for holding on to your position.

  9. asaraniti says:

    I know there are a few traders who don’t think there is a correlation between Bond YIELDS and SPX. I don’t mean this in a negative way, rather as a general learing experience…can you explain this chart and the chart I posted in reply to phil below….

  10. captbara says:

    NAS – ED completed on 1 minute chart

  11. asaraniti says:

    Did the bears just set up a trap for the bulls few minutes ago?

    • phil1247 says:

      targets i posted premarket are still good

      • asaraniti says:

        I have the profit target at 2554.82 been dancing around that level the entire morning. The first of the two very brief pullbacks… I thought /ES would fill the gap, it did not. The second pullback looked like it could have been a trap, nope, still dancing around the profit target. Coming close to the European close…if volume wasn’t pathetic already…think I’m finished for the day.

      • phil1247 says:

        of course profit stop is at 2552 so close to target now

    • asaraniti says:

      …on second thought if this a trap set by the bears it’s traveling on impulse power as opposed to warp speed. Two targets below are the gap fill and perhaps a test of the 50% LONG at 2544.50 (not necessarily this afternoon). Yes, I like Star Trek.
      Have a good weekend all.

  12. fionamargaret says:

    I have had some luck buying at 52-week lows, so bought SPXS, SDOW, TZA, VXX….so am short.
    2555 +/- 5 was also a factor. Let’s see….

  13. Not clear on wave counts, but looking at 2570 level to enter a short. with a pull back to 2535 level with 1 more push up to 2620 ish
    Minute 3 2570

    Minute 4 2535
    Minute 5 2620 were minute 1 equals minute 5

    if 2570 is broken higher then would be looking at 2587 to end minute 3
    minute 4 2523
    Minute 5 2608ish
    hopefully next week has a lot of volatility to trade both finish minor 5

    then maybe a 300 point pull back to 2320

  14. CampFreddie says:

    Some here recently were suggesting if a trading idea or “call” was presented, it should have a follow up. S&P500 1hr.

  15. iamwhoiis says:

    Does anybody know where to find real-time BDIY – Baltic Dry Index prices?

  16. scottycj1 says:

    Last post. I have been here for the last 5 years and in the last 6 months the tone has changed dramatically. No longer can individuals views be shared without some attack from the increasing POS that reside here. My guess is you are all making Tony sick with your crap….
    Keep it up……he will be gone. Best of luck

  17. CampFreddie says:

    Some here recently were suggesting if a trading idea or “call” was presented, it should have a follow up. Nas100 – 4 hr.

  18. blubrd67 says:

    For a year now, I expected VIX hit 7’s… it’s amazing that it seems attainable now.
    UVXY might reach even 15’s on a short term scale, but this is not a bad entry point either…. for a very short time dip, a few days.

  19. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony
    Thx GC
    Have a good weekend all

  20. 8:30 AM, EST, 4 reports will be released…inflation, core inflation, retail sales and core retail sales. Could be interesting as the FOMC will be looking at these numbers closely. Will it have an impact as to whether or not they raise rates in the December meeting?

  21. phil1247 says:

    initial downside target hit
    now bounce or down in extensions ?
    dollar mojo should increase
    will gold notice or care? …..that is the key question

    2557 is next
    then 2561
    then……………… to infinity and beyond

    • phil1247 says:

      now in 15 min extension shorts
      bearish below 1.1817
      target……….SWOOOOOOOSH down

      • phil1247 says:

        dumped SLV
        euro … spiked back up …at the brick wall again …. short it again ?
        DOW…….. get your dow 22999 party hats ready
        and dont forget your steve miller cd

  22. fotis2 says:

    Found this little gem on the net today:

    ”When you become rich and powerful,you become more of what you already are”Tom Hanks..

  23. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Ira update:He’s thinking small caps will be the first to weaken,lower lows,lower highs–still embedded though.Gold looking better.Below 1263 is bearish.GdX gets above 23.75 in the next two days(Friday,Monday)it’s a bear trap.Bonds broke out of their bearish embedded stochastic.Dollar is set to pull back.That’s all folks.

  24. bfquant says:

    So the Swiss made a statement recently about hitting their currency depreciation targets. Does this mean they stop buying u.s. equities for a little while?

  25. Richard Glackin says:

    Toni, one of your best updates ever! Hope you are doing well.

  26. bfquant says:

    HYG (the high yield bond etf) looking tired to me again. I am short HYG via SJB.

  27. scottycj1 says:

    Nikkei……….have some weakness tonight……………

    • scottycj1 says:

      Dont forget there are a lot of nervous money managers out there….and for good reason….we all know what those reasons are.

      Everyone knows……….everyones waiting for the signal

      Whats in the back of a lot of minds is ………….when do I get out………

      When that fear sharpens and starts building…..values diminish quickly.

      I sat at my Brokers office at Dean Witter Reynolds on October 19th 1987 watching the prices drop on his Quotron.

      All most could echo was this must have been as close as witnessing 1929 …. it was brutal…….so was the fall of 08.

      sometimes being a bit early is a blessing

      Buenos noches Mi Amigos

      • kvilia says:

        Money managers may or may not be nervous but certainly don’t care about your short position. You can certainly relax, stop posting every five minutes and get less nervous – it’s just money.

      • torehund says:

        Prepare for the big up, but could be bumpy🔝

      • vivelaamo says:

        Any chance you have been scarred by these past events and it’s clouding your judgement?

        • scottycj1 says:

          Your an ass hole…… Bye all

          • vivelaamo says:

            I didn’t mean to have a dig with my question. You were quite bullish for some time so i was just asking if past experiences may make you more wary after such a rally.

            Sorry if it came out wrong and seemed like I was mocking you. Wasn’t my intention at all.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Lol 😂. He’s so emotional, probably short from 2500 still on the back of a cycle top or something. At the end of the day, if we do crash from here then it’s going to have to break 2500, 2400, 2320 etc before it does so plenty of time for longs to get out. So what’s the point in calling 20+% down when you can wait for it to drop 2-3% first and show some weakness. It does look like a dip is coming here but might as well save the bear market calls until something more substantial develops

      • CampFreddie says:

        Scotti- Respectfully disagree, Fund managers were / still are Underweight the US and have been scrambling around to get exposure, if they are nervous about anything, it is the fear of missing out. imho.

        • tommyboys says:

          Great chart Freddie. Was gonna post the same regarding potential “chasing” but hadn’t seen a chart like this. Keep posting these tidbits as you come across.

  28. CampFreddie says:

    Whats happened to all the Dudes spouting on about spooky “Hindenburg Omens”, WW3 and huge clusters of Bradley Turn dates that will “Devastate the mkts ??? … kinda funny how they all go quiet once these doomsday dates pass softly by without event. …and I gotta say, I am still here, and my portfolio has never looked so blue.

    • scottycj1 says:

      That last statement alone ………………should give you cause to consider.

    • 123 abc says:

      Agree 😉

    • Before you embarrass yourself any further, it would help if you understood what the HO is and is not. May I suggest you do your own rerearch work on this subject. Permit me to spoon feed you with a link….

      • CampFreddie says:

        asaraniti – Not “embarrassed” by my own comments whatsoever, and I can assure you my trading and portfolio account are nothing to be “embarrassed” about.
        I wiill not be clicking the links, as why would I wish to learn “oddball” trading signals that seem to consistently get folks on the wrong side of the mkt.

        • If the shoe fits wear it, if not, throw it away. I thought before you go on a rant about a HO
          it would be helpful for you to know what it is and what it is not. I would ask you to read the short article and reply. Take my post in the spirit it was offered…a learning experience.

        • tommyboys says:

          Yes my decades experience has taught me the simplest/most obvious explanation is usually the right one. KISS typically rules. 😉

    • mcgcapital says:

      Some people like to waste time drawing correlations between random stuff and the stock market, I’ve seen enough of these cycle posts to know that they have no edge whatsoever. And if anything, they encourage them to hold bad trades because ‘today is the last day it can top/bottom’. It really is as simple as following what the price is doing and cutting losses if wrong and holding if right – indentify inflection point, place trade against it, cut loss if wrong and run if right. Anything else gets you in trouble somewhere down the road. That being said, price is saying 2555 could be where there’s a pullback. How deep I don’t know, but worth taking profits on longs here until it’s overcome.

      • CampFreddie says:

        mcg – thnx for reply.

      • mcgcapital/camp…willing to bet you an “Internet beer” that if you actually read the article I posted, both of you would say it was “interesting”. Full disclosure, I don’t follow McHugh and I do think a confirmed HO is interesting. I don’t use it in my trading strategy, I agree with you there but I do keep it in the back of my head.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Asa, I don’t mind reading this sort of stuff, but in the same way as the macro stuff that I read that’s bearish it’s counterproductive to allow it to interfere with reading the price action. If an indicator triggers that supposedly says a crash is coming, at best I’d bet on it only having at most a 50% hit rate. If the move comes it will show on the chart, and that’s when I’d pay attention to it. To be honest, as I’ve said many times I don’t believe in the fundamentals behind this market over the last 18 months so if I’m right at some point it is going to crash. Let’s just wait and see if the market does something interesting before calling it. To me that would be a move under 2500 from current levels

  29. Tony: How are your medical tests going?

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #SILVER at

  31. phil1247 says:


    for me it is time to take profits in TBT
    closed below 18 day sma and hammer candle low
    im sure livermore didnt like to see all his profits disappear
    can always buy back if things look better later
    good luck jesse

    • Hi Phil, fionamargaret, and other friends,

      Time to buy /VX futures? It’s very close to the trendline support and BB [daily BB 10.11; weekly BB 9.56; monthly 10.01; TL: 10.3-10.35], and shows positive daily divergence. It’s at a similar stage as week of 11/18/2013 (VIX chart is clearer for a comparison). It should reach 15s-16s in a couple of months. If not, /VX futures can always be rolled over.

      Your inputs would be greatly appreciated. Good luck to all!

      • phil1247 says:

        i dont follow vix

      • locanbbs says:

        A “bear” at heart, I’d like to see a poor bear get a bone, too, once in a while! I checked out VIX on a few of my algos and from a contrarian standpoint it certainly looks tempting. So beaten down that it didn’t even wake up from hibernation at yesterday’s final fall on the major markets. Another thing, too, is that this fall was
        1) not coincident with a market cycle bottom, thus seems a genuine trend change;
        2) or if it is supported, then not till next week, which means it has longer to fall in any case

        VIX is therefore certainly worth a try! (VX I don’t have.) I would wait, though, for a consolidation (i.e. not buy at the open)–we won’t be the only ones who have noticed this!

        • Many thanks for the very helpful comments and suggestions. How do you invest in VIX? Success!

          • locanbbs says:

            I use CFD’s, which unfortunately don’t exist in the States (that would be reason enough for me to move overseas!). But you have ETF’s. Main thing is they don’t cost too much. The downturn SHOULD last till at least the end of the month, but with all those “helpers” around, the market may get back on its feet as soon as Wednesday(full moon)-Thursday.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Newbie, I buy VXX… very unsuccessfully so far.
            41 was my calculated buy price, but it decided to toy with me… as if a mathematical calculation could actually work with a theoretical index.
            So, we are below any actual formula price…
            Let me add I have all kinds of astrological work sent to me, and they were all suggesting a fall in the market around the 10th..Square of 9 basically the same.
            The number I have for a turn is 2609, and if we don’t correct soon, it just might go there.
            Now you are more confused than if I had said nothing……x

            • Thanks all for all the kind help. I think ES still hasn’t finished wave a down yet. Better to short wave b high. VXX still has some downside. Better to invest in /VX with no decay. Good luck to all!

          • locanbbs says:

            No buy signals on VIX, yet (see my UPDATE on T’s Weekend Update).

    • torehund says:

      At junctions its always good to let the market speak first, but be quick when it does. Thats the only lesson, but so hard😁 Good decision power to all.

  32. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony C

  33. scottycj1 says:

    “Time for pullback, Time for pullback, Time for pullback”

    Folks, …….. I think Tony’s try to tell you something.

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