Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening then drift higher, DOW +42

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, and the market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2551 close. By 10am the SPX had drifted down to 2548. After that it started to drift higher. At 2pm the FED released the FOMC minutes: Heading into the close the SPX hit 2555, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold gained $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: jobless claims and the PPI at 8:30.

Not a whole lot new going on in this market these days. Market opened flat today, dipped, then rallied to yesterday’s all-time high, where it closed. The short term count from SPX 2417 remains basically unchanged: Nano 1: 2455, Nano 2: 2428, Nano 3: 2480-2447-2509-2488-2555. Still waiting for the elusive Nano 4 and Nano 5 to end Micro 3. Then Micro 4 and 5 to end Minute iii. Lots of subdivisions within the Minor 5 uptrend. Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short tem momentum ended overbought. Best to you trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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87 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. scottycj1 says:

    Better fasten your seat belts

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Rut teased all the bears today. Bull flag continues to form. It’s going to explode one way or the other.

  3. phil1247 says:


    ok………. we didnt get my dream gap up 100 points
    but new highs on dow today
    and only about 100 more points to target

    steve miller ………..warming up!

  4. tommyboys says:

    Mahendra Sharma calling for the crash to start today…

    • vivelaamo says:

      Do you follow this guy? Any credibility?

      • stcoleridge says:


      • fotis2 says:

        A poster commented on him couple weeks ago has made a few good calls and missed a few also one never knows

        • JK1987 says:

          smart move at the precise time.
          even though Mahendra Sharma has been wrong for 6 months, but this smart call can easily wipe out the differential of the past 6 months in a very short period of time.

          it’s all about the cycle!

          K-cycle says we down from Oct 2017 to 2020, in line with my estimates.
          that’s how $spx down 80 ~ 85% from current 2555 melting zone.
          current US market is at the same situation as the melting forever TOP (absolutely!) as Athens 6355 melting forever Top. then lost 92%. will be more coming.
          or Tokyo 38900 forever melting Top. Tokyo lost 82% one time, and currently still 47% from the Top. life/business still went on in Tokyo. will be 90~95% in the coming years.

          Current Great Debt Deflation / Great Deflation is the worldwide events.

          today Bernanke proposes Fed adopt ‘temporary’ price-level targeting to combat next recession.
          why? because he probably sees one (the biggest one) coming, and the old tool ($4 trillions is too much and not responsible already) can not save this coming one.
          it will happen. nothing can save, no tool will work. only time will heal, no other way.

          Ecclesiastes 3:
          To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven.

          God bless

      • fotis2 says:

        Yikes! $550/Monthly and I thought Brandt was expensive.

      • scottycj1 says:

        He said in March we would never see 2400 again……

      • tommyboys says:

        Follow for fun. Just another crash caller – fear monger. He’s about 50/50 so you or I can guess just as well.

  5. tommyboys says:

    Trannies BO – new ATH!
    A/D new highs! Gonna be a while before bears dreams come true…😉

  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    1291 and 1296 are the bear and bull breakout points today on gold.Retested 1291 and moved back up.Trying to decide whether to follow through on the upside.Good luck all.

  7. phil1247 says:


    if EURO doesnt giddyup right now ………….you are going to get a swoosh down
    and ol bucky will be getting his mojo back
    gold could be in serious trouble

  8. scottycj1 says:

    1st SELL signal on the SPX short term 3 hr chart….this is how it starts…..likely another day or 2 before the Daily goes sell. Dailys have gone BUY on GC and SI.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Sincere good luck Scotty, but I am seeing the opposite. I am holding long spx (for now) and am watching a short setting up on Gold.

      • mjtplayer says:

        Freddie – me thinks the gold short set-up comes from higher levels, perhaps the $1,315 – $1,325 area?

        I’m looking to short GDX in the mid $24’s

      • allen kimble says:

        Not a shocker there…..Freddie the uber bull wants to buy at the highs…ALL time highs….lol You cant make this stuff up.

        • CampFreddie says:

          Allen- Not “buying” here, “Holding”. (Holding long leveraged positions since 28 / August.) so you can Stop! “Making this stuff up” .

        • aahmichael says:

          Allen, you previously mentioned that Martin Armstrong has been calling for an October top. Is that still his call? Thanks.

          • CampFreddie says:

            Armstrong has called all ten of the last zero tops.

            • aahmichael says:

              Freddie, at least he’s consistent. 🙂

              • allen kimble says:

                Hi Michael, Armstrong has been calling for a false move to the downside. But the dates he as not given. You may have gotten confused with my calls for a seasonal top in early October purely based on previous post election years with the number 7 at the end of the year. The window of opportunity is quickly closing. It appears we might be entering a blow-off top situation. Today there is actually some heavy selling taking place. Here is the $trin numbers As you know a high number over 1.25 indicates heavy selling. Yet the markets are down just slightly. It hurts me to say but the internals show a huge move to upside coming very soon within the next few days based on this $trin number. The following days of such a high reading is always up nicely. Massive gap and crap? likely in the works here?


  9. gary61b says:

    ES if this is an expanded flat and c has started down, does 60 points down seem correct though Tony is looking for 20+. Not sure if computation is right anyone?

  10. Richard Glackin says:

    Anyone care to explain for me why Toni’s weekly S&P chart count is so dramatically different than the daily and hourly??? The weekly count makes sense to me…the other two do not. With those possible double tops in all four major indices over the last week, starting to look like we have indeed topped. We’ll see. Got into shorts a day early with the S&P but not RUT. Also shorted AMZN. I keep watching Gold & Silver…their time to rise a little looks to be getting close, but not at all certain about that – yet.

  11. JK1987 says:

    with SPX to decline 2.7% to 2484 to start with.

    • fotis2 says:

      Can’t agree with Greece correlation at all we don’t manufacture anything ,have no industry to talk about,Everything is imported, been living on loans and handouts for decades now for a country that only makes olive oil and lemons, tourism rock bottom what with all the hotspots and ”refugee” crisis it was just a matter of time before the SHTF now Banks are are calling in their loans Venezuela no.2 here we come!America on the other hand you can close your borders cut off all ties with outside world and be well able to survive and thrive for centuries.Point is the rest of the world needs America not the other way round.

    • vivelaamo says:

      SPX down to sub 1800 in the next 2-3 weeks? Did I read that right?

    • hohoho598 says:

      Imbecile, just like Bo Bolony, do you have a scripture reading to back that up by any chance? Hold on I apologize, as I am tarnishing the good book’s name.

    • scottycj1 says:

      The author of this outstanding work was so ashamed of the content they forgot to sign their name. Is this your work JK ????

    • CampFreddie says:

      JK – I thought you turned Uber-Bull recently ?

  12. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Ira sez:Gdx has higher lows,higher highs.Nasdaq trying to embed bullishly.Two days over 80.Gold broke above his resistance tonight and should go to 1315 (upper bb).Good luck all.

    • fotis2 says:

      Strange how different indicators work for different instruments Gold using BBs works nicely using the same on Crude lots of whiplash.

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        Gold has been in slow motion this year.Last year was anything BUT slow.This year BitCon is the crazy market.

  13. Hi,Thanks Tony

    W5000 ascending broadening wedge

  14. lunker1 says:

    “The market opened lower today, pulled back 13 points from yesterday’s high, and then rebounded some into the close. At the low the market was short term oversold for only the second time this month. It is possible that the 4th wave of Micro 3 is currently underway.”

    Read the last three paragraphs and look at the 60 minute and daily chart compared to now. Both have a sideway diamond continuation of 10 to 12 points? 60 minute RSI reached oversold? Daily RSI cooled off to the 70 area? Prices midway between two pivots 50 points apart? Perhaps one more touch needed of the 60 minute red line 34 EMA? The big gap up to 2575 pivot plus?

  15. /ES 2548.00 is key in the overnight session.

    Good evening all. /ES just broke a micro LONG at/ES 2550.75. IMHO, last micro LONG is 2548.00. Break that level and /ES 2542.13 will be tested. This test is a dangerous test, as there is a slightly higher probability that both the 50% and 61.8% larger measured move LONG could break (NANO 4?). Let me not get ahead of myself. Let’s see if /ES 2548 is tested and defended.


  16. torehund says:

    Importante: Back from Tbt top in 2016 I see a finished floating ACB wave down to where we are at now 🤖🤖🤖 Bots may react.

  17. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble
    Thanks Raymond James….Charts of the Week

    Thanks Tony……and everyone xx

    Here is an absolutely stunning performance of Rachmaninoff 3, by a younger Martha Argerich.
    Listening to it will make you feel so utterly glad to be alive.
    Rachmaninoff has a way of drawing on all your senses and finding your vulnerabilities, dances, cajoles and strokes until one is in a state of total exhaustion.
    I think this is the only time she played this…at least for a recording….x

  18. stormchaser80llc says:

    While I sold my Oct 20 SPY calls for 96% and 110% profit last week, I kept my 401K entirely in stocks. Today made ANOTHER new All Time High for SPX. My swing trading signals are mixed, with the signal based on the Techncials Model becoming BEARISH once again. My favorite signal has remained BULLISH since 8/29 at SPX 2446.30.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was higher for the 31st day in a row, with a positive divergence at 9/1’s peak vs. SPX, foretelling of this bullish run. The Model made a nominal new high last week which could be counted as a double top. The Cumulative version of the Technicals Model made a new All Time High 10/11. My statistically driven Volatility Model is very low, meaning a big move may be developing shortly.

    SPX daily is above all major moving averages, though negative divergences are set from the March 1st high. At the hourly scale, at today’s highs, negative divergences were strengthened across the board, so in the short term I am looking for a softening market.

    VIX finished lower today, giving an hourly MACD SELL signal. In the very short term, the 15-min VIX chart shows new positive divergences, so in the very short term VIX may rise.

    Market Internals, participation and breadth indicators were mixed today. Many of these are in positive territory, yet are well off peaks from earlier in the year. SPX A-D line in an exception, making a new All Time High on 10/11, obviously above its 20 dma which is ascending. SPX McClellan made its 30th positive reading in a row.

    Oil may have ended its extended consolidation with a large gain yesterday, though negative divergences at the recent top mean a new high is not for certain.

    HYG:IEF is off last week’s highs, though with negative divergences, may have been a top (BEARISH for market?)

    Supporting charts and much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    I want you to know I am quite serious about developing my site the right way, I am in this for the long haul, and I will improve my services at every opportunity I have. Traders this next part is for you! I recently uploaded a significant upgrade to the Trading Platform (see top menu of my site for the link). I offer 3 diverse models for the SPX AND the consensus of all 3 models, at time-periods of 1 min/5 min/10 min/15 min/30 min/1 hr/2 hr/4 hr and soon longer periods. No matter how frequently you like to trade, I will have you covered. I even have the ETF GLD (gold) available at the 1 min timeframe. These timeframes, available trading vehicles (why not oil, why not china etf?), and models will continue to expand over time! If you are an active trader, you will view my site as something more than just a daily analysis of the markets. I want traders to live here during market hours! I want us all to make money!

  19. phil1247 says:


    while everyone is mesmerized by gold …. going nowhere
    crude ………. going nowhere
    gdx …………….going nowhere

    nobody seems interested in the DOW except maybe david cupples and me
    all i know is DDM goes up almost every day
    my dow target is at 22981
    you just know da boyze are going to hit 22999 dont you?
    i plan to dump DDM near target
    heck its only 100 points away
    dream scenario is 100 point up gap tomorrow ..
    …… dump it and rebuy later

    • locanbbs says:

      The EURO, whose demise has been predicted everywhere for years, is rising faster. Just goes to show you that ghosts can easily float away!

      • locanbbs says:

        Who is “supporting” (manipulating) the EURO actually? Anyone have an opinion on that? Or is it just the weakness of the US$ against all currencies? Haven’t been following them recently.

        • No manipulation in EURO… or at least CB offset each other
          Manipulation in bonds…. that is obvious with QE & Buybacks, etc.
          Manipulation in stocks… CB buy them. SNB had to report for example stock holdings as legal reporting thresholds were taken

    • fotis2 says:

      Phil USD is a sell on slow stochastic and Gold a buy on same indicator Crude is the tricky one daily stoch is a buy but price pattern is a sell so long as high of last month is not pierced

      • fionamargaret says:

        Fotis, you know I am long oil, but you are a fierce competitor and have some exquisite charts, so we shall see…..oil up to 55, then we shall see if it has the stuffing to go higher to 66… up…..x

      • phil1247 says:


        EURO was repelled by tremendous resistance at 1.1880
        until a break above there sticks ………

        ol BUCKY is going to get its mojo back
        IF… a big if … GOLD can rally with the dollar
        that is going to tell you a whole lot …
        no gold position atm

        • fotis2 says:

          Phil LOL No position on Gold?

          Hmmm doesn’t say much when you in by the time you post the trade you already out… 😉

          • phil1247 says:

            love chicken scratch……….
            if its not rocketing up or down
            i dont want it
            just say no to sideways chop and slop

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at

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