Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market opens higher then pulls back again, DOW +70

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 6-points above yesterday’s SPX 2545 close. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 2555, a new high, then began to pullback. By 12:30 the market had retraced the entire opening rally when it hit SPX 2545. Then a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2551.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose $1.35, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Tomorrow: FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, after it looked like it was about to continue yesterdays’ pullback. In the opening minutes the SPX rallied to a new high at 2555. Then pulled back for the rest of the day. Choppy action the past three trading days after establishing the SPX 2553 high on Thursday. Still no change in the short term count. Been over two weeks since the market had its last notable pullback. Short term negative divergences just about everywhere. Short term support at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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74 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Richard Glackin says:

    Could be a double top in ALL the major indices.

  2. looking for 2568 tomorrow for a good short down to 2530. Banks will bet and raise estimates in the morning when they report

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Time for RUT last hour bounce…

    • stcoleridge says:

      Didn’t work today. The first part of the pattern did.

      • vivelaamo says:

        yep could be starting to top out for another 3-5% pb. Would be good buying opportunity. First things first need to see that bull flag break.

      • pooch77 says:

        Has been weak on the close since last week,far different then the last 4-5 weeks when it would spike up 3-6 points a last half hour,or open up with a 10 point gap

  4. Obvious that gold and GDX are not trading bullishly today,with GDX below its 10(23.44l and 20 d(23.57) again–especially dIsappointing since the dollar is lower.A first sign that this little rally attempt is not the real deal.Must be defensive until those moving averages are surpassed for more than a day.Stocks not selling off means gold may not rally.See how it finishes.Later.

  5. Any thoughts on Soxx and semis
    Looks to be overbought and overextended rally
    Earnings will tell

  6. phil1247 says:

    Tony
    hoping you pass all your tests with flying colors
    God bless and get well quickly

    ps… i had a spicy meatball yesterday … but i saved one for you 🙂

  7. fotis2 says:

    CL short here target 46.60 weekly 3BR stop 52.00

  8. Lee X says:

    Hey Tony
    Thinking about you today with all those tests and long days.
    My best to you and your family

    • fionamargaret says:

      UWT and UGLD would do better….(I have FEZ and UGAZ in regression)

        • fionamargaret says:

          …somewhat…just the sequence of the numbers…UGAZ I usually like but it has to come back more, then I shall jump into it with you. If you want to know how low, speak to me later.
          I really didn’t know if you meant FAZ or FEZ..prefer FEZ to FAZ…
          Just my thoughts…..hope you do well.

      • JK1987 says:

        fiona,
        my comments of UGAZ are still the same as:
        JK1987 says:
        September 25, 2017 at 12:01 pm
        UGAZ made new low, bounced off mid red pitch fork, now facing blue pitch fork & black TL resistances. should back down to new low at the mid red pitch fork. still be careful if break down the fork. pitch forks not only channels to me, but also have very meaningful technical.
        https://gyazo.com/bd011b22552e58a911e93dab530f78a7

        UWT chart update from 0925, i still don’t like it.
        https://gyazo.com/a8bc59c0b75e9ff2f6c47c1ca1d42fb3

        gold, it’s on the chart i posted when you and learned, and me discussed gold & usd on 0928.
        it’s on the red ‘b’ as expected, possibly already done yesterday. coming will be the free fall of “c” as marked on the chart.
        and i did warned at GOLD 1360 area.

        risk management, i have stop on largest holding TMF.
        but for US equity market, my confident view indicates we are at Greece 6355 area, now 755. at then 6355 area, what kind of risk management needed? day trading? short term trading? scare off 1 or 2% or 3% moves? not me. i am so confident, so no stop needed and i can comfortably afford. my view is not those people can understand at all, because they do not know where the market is at and where it is going. if they don’t understand the market, should not be in the market at all.
        https://gyazo.com/65fe7de50f05c4db0ef6b7aebf6176d4
        post #3

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thanks Jack.
          I still have TMF, think UGAZ is going quite a bit lower, but like UWT…think oil is going to 55 on its way to 66…

        • mcgcapital says:

          Lol. You’re just an idiot, end of story. Will probably take a wipe out to make you lose the ego. The US is nothing like Greece for a start, so the view is wrong all be it a bear market is more than possible, just not a 90% crash like you’re saying. And secondly.. go look at the great traders Livermore, Tudor-Jones, Soros et all.. nobody can be right 100% of the time so it’s about cutting your losses when you’re wrong. You’re too arrogant to realise that so think you don’t need an exit strategy. Even if it tanks sometime soon you’re still a rubbish trader as somewhere down the line if will throw you a curve ball and you’ll just sit there like a lemon thinking you’re right 😀

        • vivelaamo says:

          JK I am long RUT and will add on pull backs. So you think Tony’s analysis is completely wrong?

  9. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Time to buy.
    ndx hourly futures –
    https://imgur.com/a/qdlcn

  10. vivelaamo says:

    Take care Tony. Hope you get well soon.

  11. Mr C,two or three less of the spicy meatballs with pasta might be all you need to do (goldfingers crossed).Hoping that you start feeling better very soon.
    Speaking of gold,Ira says both the PM and GDX hit the 18d,but the upper bb still seems like a possible target,short term.I’m hoping for an eventual retest of 25.60.Neither is overbought by any means.Dollar removed itself from the bullish stochastic.Would be nice if gold did what it was supposed to with a falling dollar.Good luck all.

  12. fotis2 says:

    Tony hope you Get Well soon.

  13. kvilia says:

    Hope you feel better, Tony.

  14. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=65b9ddac-e3ee-49d4-9c0b-5f3aed2a190d&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony….. and everyone xx
    I hope you can relax, close your eyes and drift into this Tony.

    • JK1987 says:

      it would be as the 4200% performer Jim Rogers said, “something I never experienced in my life time”.
      so all the analysts and strategists will not see it coming.
      look at GBTC, down from the top, 3 day declined 38% (fibo), 10 day declined 55%(fibo).
      it won’t that much dramatic, but the patterns are the same.
      i am specialized in this kind of stuff even though i never experienced neither. it’s because i studied all these kind things inside out. not any bull (most analysts and strategists) would spend time to do this kind of research.
      2008 bear market is nothing, not in the cycle.
      cheers!
      post #1

      • fionamargaret says:

        Thanks Jack.

        • Jack Sparrow says:

          “i am specialized in this kind of stuff even though i never experienced neither” : internet research

          • vivelaamo says:

            Thinks he’s Micheal Burry out the short.

            Jks analysis seems to be at complete odds with our host Tony. So one of them will be very wrong. I know who my money is on.

            • mcgcapital says:

              It’s just funny how last week he was bullish because of OEW and now bearish again despite no change in OEW. There may well be a crash in the next 12-24 months but he won’t profit from it as he’s shown already that he has no trading skills. It will either melt up before it crashes, liquidating his account as he doesn’t know how to use stops. Or if it does go down he’ll end up holding too long as his targets are extreme and not likely to be hit. He needs to spend less time researching historical cases and twisting them to his narrative, and more time on developing a trading system that allows steady appreciation of capital

              • fotis2 says:

                Go slow typical BP off the meds 15 year personal experience.

              • JK1987 says:

                fotis, churchill had BP, and lead to great achievements. trump has BP, based on what have seen, will lead to disaster in the economy & market. corker mentioned wwIII? i don’t know.
                hope your BP will lead to great achievements.
                family member experience BP, so i know how it goes.

                my largest investment TMF has stop. but for the rest of investments, no need, cause i know where the market is at and how it will come down, and i know what i am doing.
                after my goal hit (spx below 1800), i will turn turn bullish on equity, and bearish on bonds.
                TMF will implode one day, but not until the bubble formation completed.
                dollar will be very bearish, but not until shining one more time toward 120.
                gold will be very bullish, but not until cut in half from here. and i will buy then.
                all these are big picture, not for the short term, or day trading.

                fotis, you know how Athens market experienced the bubble and burst, and debt deflation.
                here is the same path NY will go. yes, make no mistake, NY goes the same path as Athens, certainly the form will vary.
                ever heard about K-wave Oct 2017 ~ 2020? which agrees with my researches.

                for those so much bullish people, i dare you to buy here. don’t just talk, put into actions.

              • mcgcapital says:

                ‘But for the rest of my investments, no need, as I know where the market is at and how it will come down, and I know what I am doing.’ And that’s the issue… you think trading is about calls and not risk management. Everyone is laughing at your expense because of this, not because you’re bearish which is a perfectly legitimate view to have

            • CampFreddie says:

              Fotis – Agree on the BP thing. (also have some personal experience here)

  15. ombakaki says:

    TC,
    Thanks for the update.
    Your 2575 pivot.. would that be fibo 2.0 of your mirco 1 ?

    Thanks

  16. Bud Fox says:

    Thank you, Tony and take care of your health. God Bless….

  17. Thanks Tony. It looks like we are close to negative RSI divergence on the daily and like many others, I wish only the best for you and hope you see 100% recovery.

  18. tradeanimal says:

    Thank you Tony. Hope you are doing well!

Comments are closed.