SHORT TERM: NFP 33k job loss surprise, DOW -2
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, especially after monthly payrolls posted its first decline since 2010. The market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2552 record close, then bounced to 2549 by 10am. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported higher. The market then declined to SPX 2544 by 11am. After that the market worked it ways higher to end the week at SPX 2549.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.50, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 pivot. Today the Q3 GDP estimate was lowered.
The market opened lower by more than 5-points for the first time in three weeks today. Quite a record. Traders took the opportunity to take some profits after NFP surprisingly came in negative for the first time in 7 years. While many were blaming the negative report on the hurricanes, we took a look at the historical data. Typically negative NFP reports occur entering/during/just after recessions. There are occasions, however, when an isolated one month decline occurs during expansions: 1995, 1996 and 1997. For now, we’ll go along with the hurricane consensus while awaiting next months report. The pullback from yesterday’s extremely overbought SPX 2553 all-time high is only 9-points so far. Not enough to have an impact on the short term count. Yesterday’s comments still apply. Enjoy the weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend