Friday update

SHORT TERM: NFP 33k job loss surprise, DOW -2

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, especially after monthly payrolls posted its first decline since 2010. The market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2552 record close, then bounced to 2549 by 10am. At 10am wholesale inventories were reported higher. The market then declined to SPX 2544 by 11am. After that the market worked it ways higher to end the week at SPX 2549.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped $1.50, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 pivot. Today the Q3 GDP  estimate was lowered.

The market opened lower by more than 5-points for the first time in three weeks today. Quite a record. Traders took the opportunity to take some profits after NFP surprisingly came in negative for the first time in 7 years. While many were blaming the negative report on the hurricanes, we took a look at the historical data. Typically negative NFP reports occur entering/during/just after recessions. There are occasions, however, when an isolated one month decline occurs during expansions: 1995, 1996 and 1997. For now, we’ll go along with the hurricane consensus while awaiting next months report. The pullback from yesterday’s extremely overbought SPX 2553 all-time high is only 9-points so far. Not enough to have an impact on the short term count. Yesterday’s comments still apply. Enjoy the weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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8 Responses to Friday update

  1. torehund says:

    Special k resistance for the Euro.

  2. JK1987 says:

    all market should be higher next week, from cycle point of view.
    potential high target next week DJI 22940+, RUT 1523+ SPX …. NDX ….
    that should be about it for next week.
    that won’t change my plan and positions for the big view.

  3. torehund says:

    Tony, interesting Angle on the non-farm payrolls. If a recession is over it surely was visible on macd, not so much price-wise. Cost push inflation biting in, latest example Netflix, god old stagflation. Think it will be much more profound than at earlier times. Also higer rates may impede new production capacity to emerge, further escalating price pressure. Prima Vera here in Peru, enjoyable times.

  4. lunker1 says:

    I live in Florida and there is anecdotal evidence that a substantial amount of business struggled with cash and payroll. Ditto for East Texas. The MSAs effected are Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Tampa, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Atlanta, Charleston, Houston, Austin, Galveston. But you’ll also see an increase in sales due to frantic buying of food, water, gasoline, batteries, generators and all other hurricane related supplies, and an increase in building products like wood and gypsum for hurricane repairs . But then you’ll probably see a drop in auto sales and durable goods because people spent so much money on the hurricane stuff

  5. llerias7 says:

    Tony, still in micro 3? Assuming the micro 4 next week where would be the bottom? 2490?

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