Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then substantial pullback, DOW -54

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened three points below Friday’s SPX 2502 close. In the opening moments the SPX dipped to 2498, then bounced to 2503 by 10:30. By 11am the SPX had dropped to 2488, its lowest level in two weeks. The market then started bouncing around: 2495 by 11:30, 2489 just past noon, 2496 by 1:30, 2491 by 2:30. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2497.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.00%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude rose $1.55, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, consumer confidence and new home sales at 10am. At 12:45 a speech from FED chair Yellen in Cleveland.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced around a bit, then had its first decent correction in three weeks. Thanks to more rhetoric from rocket man Kim. At the low the market had pulled back 21 points from last week’s SPX 2509 ATH. This was sufficient to trigger a short term reversal and we now have an updated short term count. From SPX 2417: (1) 2455, (2) 2429, (3) 2480-2447-2509-2488(?). The next rally to new highs should complete wave (3). After that a wave (4) pullback, and then new highs again for wave (5). Still expecting the market to hit the 2525 pivot during this Minute wave iii rally. Short term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning, then bounced a bit. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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178 Responses to Monday update

  1. purplember says:

    Are the people discussing HD method here because the method isn’t that good & it needs other trade systems to help it / fill gaps or just here to promote it ??

  2. vivelaamo says:

    I can’t believe all the posts about DH system! Just take his 14 day free trial if your that interested. I did and it works in a strong trend very well. When it’s choppy it’s not so reliable IMO. But then the trend is your friend in all systems right? That’s where I’ve cleary messed up trying to short the RUT!

    At least the Villa are winning. Evening all.

  3. fionamargaret says:

    I know everyone wants this DH method, even although it is Tony’s OEW site, but why does this mean charts continually, not only during the day but in the evening as well..weekends also, when there is no trading, and you just know the numbers will change over and over again.
    I was called to task for over the limit postings…..
    There is no blog that is even readable anymore….

    • lunker1 says:

      Fiona the weekend update you posted more than most

      And I’m not seeing that many charts from Sat to today. and charts are better than ramblings, favorite tickers and cheerleading posts that don’t have charts

      I like charts
      I like asa’s summary
      I like conversations that come to a conclusion. Some days it’s 10 posts. Many days it’s zero. It’s all about the average 😀

      • fionamargaret says:

        I was away. this weekend…posted on Friday before I left, and gave my e-mail market stuff in one posting on Sunday when I returned…lots of DH charts though…

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and seeing I have been with the blog since almost the beginning…funny story there…I was looking for a mathematician who studied the market, and at every turn, Tony’s name came up…so I joined the group…I don’t do OEW (except in a numerical translation), feel since I have attracted quite a few to take the course, my time in the evening is to be respected (read no DH charts until later).
          I do have Tony’s blessing with the music thing.
          I know…. Mariah Carey….x

  4. phil1247 says:

    RUT

    from the weekend ……………………….

    1457………………hit
    1461……………..hit
    1497…………… little in the way of 1497 target now

    • JK1987 says:

      agree, for the first time ever.
      1497, overshoot would be 1512 with c=161.8%
      the Holy Grail HG system. 🙂
      no wonder you can make 60% return
      asa, i guess, 61.8% annual return

      • stcoleridge says:

        Look again at the count. Major A went from 943.1-1452.09 or 509 points. 1.618 times that is 823.5 added to 1349.35 gets it to 2172.

        • stcoleridge says:

          I have to agree with Vive, your flip flopping gibberish is a bit OTT.

          • JK1987 says:

            hey, didn’t your daddy taught you – join them if you can’t fight them.
            if you dad did not teach you, i am teaching you.

            DH is a flip flop every 5 min system, so that he can claim 60% return.
            it’s real, no phantom. SEC will let it go, no jail time.

            you still don’t get it, do you?

            • mcgcapital says:

              Nobody gets what you’re on about.. too many grammatical errors and market views that flip 180 degrees with no explanation other than ‘this is my research so I’m not sharing it’. Add in the blatant disregard for any kind of risk management on your trades and any serious trader already has you on ignore

              • JK1987 says:

                son, had a bad day on your shorties, huh
                long ago, you said to had me on ignore.
                but you jumped and opened on every of my post, and insulting
                bad memory, huh, dr. phil can treat you with the Holy Grail DH system.
                dr phil is a real doctor

              • mcgcapital says:

                Never said I had you on ignore before now.. said it would be good if there was an ignore button. Looks like you can’t read as well as not being able to spell! For the record, I’m short FTSE from 7305 which was in profit last time I checked…

            • stcoleridge says:

              YOU don’t get the flawed math of your 1.618 calculation.

            • lunker1 says:

              JK add up your posts over the past week or the past month. What’s your daily posting average? People wouldn’t care about your posts if your average was not excessive

              • vivelaamo says:

                Lunker I couldn’t care less how much he posted. But going from being adamant a top was in and ridiculing those that questioned him or were long to then switching two days later to calling new highs but this time ridiculing all those that may be short is just ridiculous.

    • Mackeno Ne says:

      here he goes again .. a flipflop coin loves making noise

    • stcoleridge says:

      Just the 40 odd points.

  5. scottycj1 says:

    Can you feel the pendulum coming to a halt ?
    The big opposition—will reverse the upswing and send the pendulum the other way.

    There is a time to every purpose under heaven.

    • lunker1 says:

      scotty a lot of repetition with the cheerleading. We understand you’re short and we understand why already

    • fionamargaret says:

      The best algorithms are in the oil and gas sector, and gold…UGAZ, UWT, UGLD…short the rest…not rocket science but similarities…x

      • lunker1 says:

        Fiona your posts are no different than Phil’s except he provides charts and you provide cryptic snippets that don’t add up to anything. What are your algorithms? What do they show? How do they work?

        • fionamargaret says:

          I shall post something this evening Lunker…..if you just looked back some, I sent charts.
          I use P&F then find within the pattern, what is happening at this moment and where we are going. I am not meaning to be cryptic.
          I am surprised you of all people would go along with this continuous stream of changing DH charts… you have a very subjective mind

  6. JK1987 says:

    Yellen says Fed may have been wrong on employment and inflation, which would mean easier policy ahead

    possible oew RUT target with c = 161.8% * a
    https://gyazo.com/c735d6cbaa3c64305e143f4cbda1e4a5

    possible oew SPX target
    https://gyazo.com/fcf4b3dfb8854a31e55fa95f786fafa5

    No problemo

  7. H D says:

    100+ comments needed to explain the 50% retracement level on an 8 point day?

    And this is why!
    yesterday it was 2481 target and then 2451!?! right before they rallied them…wrong!
    today it was 2516 target right before they sold them….wrong!
    And on and on. Stop out after stop out. You have to have 40 comments so 1 of them is correct.

    If you get twisted up every pico wave how are you going to trade an entire trend?

    1 comment from Tony this week…..

    • lunker1 says:

      HD you rarely explain your trade set ups before they occur. A lot of after-the-fact self back patting when there’s a 10 at 10. Interesting, but what good is that? phil and now asa have spent a lot of time explaining a system that can work every day and several others are interested in. that’s a whole lot more than most others offer on here. let it be man.

      • H D says:

        Not true lunker. what time did they sell them today? What level SPX were they selling into? What level CL got sold? I just don’t need to say it over and over. I posted the EDT on NDX 2 weeks ago. 3 points of risk and it tanked 169 points. As always, interpret as you see fit.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Have to agree that it’s too much and it’s actually quite hard to find original content to read on here now. However, I don’t think Phil/Asa are being disingenuous and that this system is working for them. But it’s not the only way to trade and make money and it’s good to see other opinions/content/set ups being posted rather than just this DH method

      • lunker1 says:

        Remember CN and his Big Ups and Downs? Same deal as these guys. People are trying to help people learn a system and make money and it isn’t easy. It takes time to share and cover all the Q&A. I think asa has it right by posting the daily set up summary.

        • phil1247 says:

          thank you lunker !

          you heard asa say that he has missed a couple of trades
          over the last few days due to answering questions from people
          who will never understand how it works and are just wasting his time

          the only reason we are doing this is for people like you
          who want to learn …
          i will try to answer any questions you may have

    • SPYtrader says:

      HD, it may be time for that other foot.

  8. vivelaamo says:

    RUT is not going down anytime soon is it? 1370 still my line in the sand.

    If this tax reform is seriously not already priced in then bears stand no chance.

  9. fotis2 says:

    And there goes USD/YEN up up and away

  10. To recap gold,Ira infers that unless 1291 breaks today or tomorrow,it should be bullish.A break of 1291 is a bull trap.Off to the horse races.

  11. Tran just made a new high. Hope it sticks.

  12. scottycj1 says:

    Someone else played the Merideth version the other day…..
    For those of you who didnt hear it…………………………..

  13. travis01 says:

    Same again…but uvxy 9:00 sell 11:30…look again at 3:00 for late moves or go golf. Love pivots TC!

  14. Jack Sparrow says:

    just talking abt oil… i know we all are bullish – one potential count puts the move from 45 as ending diagonal which would be the C wave…and hence the start of downturn…so keep that in mind

    • fionamargaret says:

      Actually Jack I have both Oil and Gold in a wave 3,…..also NUGT…but you know I do numbers…gold to 1600, oil to 55, then 62…

      • Sometimes UGAZ at the sky on starry nights, I know, and think of your old high school love. Then you think “UWTs that matter with me?!”. So much time has passed. I’ll bet now that he’s just another UGLD NUGT.

        🙂

      • fionamargaret says:

        NUGT in the 70’s….basically a double from here…

        • I assume you folks are smart and do understand the math on the inverse and leveraged products, yes? These are reset daily and thus are fine when things are going your way, or when you reset along with them before each consecutive morning — which is hard to do because you do not know the percentage move until after the previous close (which implies you will lag by a day).

          Oscillations will give you heartburn and serious drawdown. Leverage is that pot of gold designed to land hard on one’s head.

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        yes its confusing…but i am glad you are surfing now also

    • travis01 says:

      I rarely ever trade oil but I do work in industry. Met last week in boardroom with multi billion customer and they are projecting flat growth through 2018. Rig projections down across the board. Steel , growth. Mining, down. Oil, flat. Gen manufacturing, slight uptick. Just 2 pennies…

    • captbara says:

      Jack are you looking at USO? I see ED potential there off yesterday’s high.

  15. TRAN seems ripe for a new high.

  16. phil1247 says:

    last one

    ES ………….
    shorts broken
    targets above …………………. 2516
    then…………………..2530

    hasta la vista ………….bay bee

  17. fionamargaret says:

    UWT and UGAZ (at the base of my pattern) so lots of upside…

  18. phil1247 says:

    CL
    bounced from ext long support at 51.44
    looking to rebuy ………….but not yet

    gold .. holding support by a finger nail ………no buy there yet
    silver … failed miserably

    asa ……………

    how do
    you find any time to trade ??
    … you answer so many questions ?? 🙂 🙂

    • jwmcbride says:

      he’s got skills

    • asaraniti says:

      I limit myself to 3 trades per day. Sometimes I don’t trade at all, especially if I missed the entry which I did 2X in the past week or so while posting. I am retired, I don’t trade for a living.

      • phil1247 says:

        you are doing a great job explaining asa
        dont get discouraged like i did and give up
        a few will never get it
        … i think you are finding out who they are quickly.
        but there are people who want to learn….
        good luck …………… as i said before you will need it here
        see ya !

  19. jwmcbride says:

    Morning wisdom

    Have no fear Queen yellen is here
    Up we go to the stratosphere
    This bubble’s end will soon come to pass
    But the plan for now is to cover her ass

  20. gary61b says:

    ES 2501.25 looks to be next possible overhead resistance.

  21. aahmichael says:

    Thanks asa. After yesterday’s close you wrote:
    “…if 2498.75 is broken, their will be an immediate 50% retrace. The high anchor is the overnight high and the low anchor is this afternoons low.”

    However, this morning you wrote;
    “…If 2498.75 breaks, there will be an immediate 50% retrace LONG, with the low anchor at yesterday’s low, the high anchor is this morning’s high”

    What changed to cause to low anchor to be moved down from yesterday afternoon’s low (2488.25) to yesterday’s lowest low (2485.00)?

    • aahmichael says:

      meant this to be a reply to asa’s earlier post. Will repost it there.

      • Simple, if 2498.75 breaks the 15-short trend is broken and the /ES is in 15 minute long. The algorithm will redraw the fibs as outlined in the post.

        • aahmichael says:

          Both of your posts describe what would happen if 2498.75 is broken, however, the first post said that the new low anchor would be 2488.25, but the 2nd post said that the new low anchor would be 2485. I’m pointing out the contradiction in the two posts,

          • I checked last nights post and i wote,

            asaraniti says:
            September 25, 2017 at 5:42 pm

            BTW if and that is a big “if”, if 2498.75 is broken, their will be an immediate 50% retrace. The high anchor is the overnight high and the low anchor is this afternoons low. The entry into the long would agan be the test of the 50% long with a tick <-400 and an arrow pointing up. Not going to see that in the overnight session but will see that if it trades after the opening bell.

            • aahmichael says:

              Correct, that’s what you wrote last night. The sentence I am focusing on is:“…if 2498.75 is broken, their will be an immediate 50% retrace. The high anchor is the overnight high and the low anchor is **this afternoons low**.” (emphasis mine)

              However, this morning you wrote;
              “…If 2498.75 breaks, there will be an immediate 50% retrace LONG, with the low anchor at **yesterday’s low** (emphasis mine,) the high anchor is this morning’s high”

              Can’t you see that these 2 sentences describe 2 different low anchor points? Yesterday afternoon’s low was 2488.25, but yesterday’s low was 2485.

              • Oh, I think you might be confusing SPX and /ES. The low on /ES was 2485, the low on SPX was 2488.25. Look at my chart for /ES, go on your computer and pull up a chart on SPX trading for yesterday. Hope this helps.

              • aahmichael says:

                No, I’m not confusing SPX and ES.
                Yesterday’s low in SPX was 2488.03. Yesterday afternoon’s low in SPX was 2491.04
                Yesterday’s low in ES was 2485. Yesterday afternoon’s low in ES was 2488.25.

                You referenced “this afternoon’s low” in last night’s post, and you referenced “yesterday’s low” in this morning’s post. Those are 2 different lows. I’m just asking why you switched from one to the other.

              • fotis2 says:

                Geez Louise is this really necessary?There is a whole site FOR FREE giving the rundown on DH system by the inventor himself do we really have to sit and analyze every squiggle here???

              • fotis2 says:

                And IMHO the only one making money out of DH system is DH himself.

              • asaraniti says:

                geeze…now, you want to hit me on nomenclature and want me define the meaning of afternoon…LOL Last time I checked 4:00 PM, EST is the afternoon…Goodbye, no more replies for you.

              • lunker1 says:

                I see it and have same question

              • lunker1 says:

                asa, no time to get snippy. If you’re taking the extreme detail of explaining the trades then explain why you’re low anchor is changing from 88 to 85?

              • lunker1 says:

                You keep missing the point of his question. And it’s a simple valid question.

              • aahmichael says:

                Asa, in trading, details matter. You have presented yourself on this blog as an expert in the DH trading system, and have been kind enough to attempt to explain how that system works. However, on several occasions your explanations contained errors (as in the above instance.) So, for those who are reading your posts carefully, those errors cause lots of confusion.

              • asaraniti says:

                Lunker1 and aamichael..gee I thought I answered it already, I didn’t see the post yesterday where I mentioned 2488.25. If either one of you can repost the post or simply give me the time stamp of the post I will a third check.

              • aahmichael says:

                Asa, would have been so much easier to just say, “oops. I goofed. In last night’s post I meant to write “this morning’s low,” not “this afternoon’s low.”

              • lunker1 says:

                yesterday’s low of 85 wasn’t in the afternoon. It was late morning. I think the air is using words when instead you should use numbers.

            • lunker1 says:

              asa’s wording changed from yesterday afternoon’s low (88.25) to yesterday’s low (85).

            • lunker1 says:

              asa, perhaps your error was using the word afternoon. Yesterday’s low of 85 wasn’t in the afternoon

              • asaraniti says:

                OK spent 5 minutes and triple checked every post I wrote in the last 2 days. I never specifically mentioned a level of 2488.25 in a post, that is what I was searching all along.. However, I did state yesterday’s afternoon when I should have said morning, I sit corrected on the time. NOT THE LEVEL. The analysis was spot on!!!!!

              • lunker1 says:

                “words are very unnecessary. they can only do harm”

  22. naz43 says:

    S&P500 : In corso (abcde) Minute di onda (5) Minor > 2500
    Dow 30 : In corso (abcde) Minute di onda (5) Minor > 22300

  23. phil1247 says:

    gold………ext long failed but long from lows holding so far … still no buy yet
    silver … long from lows failed ……… new lows ahead..always in worse shape than gold
    euro.. finally broke long at 1.1826… in ext shorts..want to add more EUO going forward

    mjt,…………. EURO finally turning down but will soar after correction

    crude … bear below holding …………not interested any more (again)
    unless extension forms

  24. Good morning traders…this morning’s analysis.
    /ES 2498.75 held …so far. So the 15-minute chart remains bearish and the daily chart is bullish.
    If /ES 2498.75 holds, I expect /ES to fill today’s gap and test yesterday’s low. I will reassess from there.

    If 2498.75 breaks, there will be an immediate 50% retrace LONG, with the low anchor at yesterday’s low, the high anchor is this morning’s high….approx /ES 2492 if there is a 1 tick break. The target would be a re-test of the all-time high and reassess from there.

    Chart……

    • aahmichael says:

      Thanks asa. After yesterday’s close you wrote:
      “…if 2498.75 is broken, their will be an immediate 50% retrace. The high anchor is the overnight high and the low anchor is this afternoons low.”

      However, this morning you wrote;
      “…If 2498.75 breaks, there will be an immediate 50% retrace LONG, with the low anchor at yesterday’s low, the high anchor is this morning’s high”

      What changed to cause to low anchor to be moved down from yesterday afternoon’s low (2488.25) to yesterday’s lowest low (2485.00)?

    • jwmcbride says:

      watch this morning trades market trying to impulse off 85 support. Like you I like to wait for conformation rather than guess like so many here appear to do

      • After reading this I think it indicates 2492 would be your stop and expect a possible move up to or through 2507 on the ES…is this about right ASA?

        • jwmcbride says:

          I rarely trade before 9:30 the liquidity is far to thin which allows the big boys to exploit weaker traders. SO i was only able to scalp a trad from 96 area to 99 area watching to see if this is a impulse wave from 84.80 area. I am leaning in that direction as is tony

  25. Amit Tiwary says:

    hi Tony..
    Looks like SPX is in pico 3 of nano 3 of micro 3 of minute 3 of minor 5..? did i get it right
    Thanks for being there, doing this for all of us..

  26. CampFreddie says:

    Trade Idea no 3 – Spain Ibex 35 (Idea’s as requested by HD 🙂
    Another decent swing trade set-up here with Pos/Div and Bear entrapment.
    Ibex daily 24 hour continuous :-
    Aimho and all original thought.

    btw – If none of my trade ideas stimulate your interest, trading may not be for you, and you may wish to consider an activity less expensive like … Yachting.

  27. Good morning traders..this morning’s analysis.
    /ES 2498.75 held…so far. So, the 15-minute chart is still bearish, the daily chart is bullish. If /ES 2498.75 holds, the two targets are today’s gap and yesterday’s low and then reassess from there.

    If 2498.75 breaks, there will be an immediate 50% retrace LONG, with the low anchor at yesterday’s low, the high anchor is this morning’s high….approx /ES 2492 if there is a 1 tick break. The target would be a re-test of the all-time high and reassess from there.

    Chart……

  28. fotis2 says:

    USD/JPY 4hour Bull flag pending?If so 114 next
    https://invst.ly/599op

  29. CampFreddie says:

    Seeing a lot Bear-trap setups, which are excellent buy signals in Bull mkts, hope nobody gets caught in them. Aimho and all my own original thoughts.
    Here is one on the Nas-100 4-hour continuous cont :-

  30. Ira’s main piece of info tonight on gold is–a bull trap on a price below 1291 over Tuesday or Wednesday.That would unleash another selloff.To me,gold is a mess,getting tossed around by central bank selling,but then Korea pops up to stop the bloodletting.Still,as of tonight,gold has righted itself for a possible move to fill the 1344 gap.That’s all folks.

  31. cj32 says:

    cr. to CBZ

  32. phil1247 says:

    CLZ7……….. DEC CRUDE

    traditional target and .618 resistance both hit today and sit at 52.56

    out of all longs at mkt close
    want to see if we can go thru target and resistance before rebuy
    if surpassed we can continue up to 57 area where short entry sits

  33. CampFreddie says:

    Trade Idea as requested by HD 🙂
    Good bullish Set-up here across multiple time frames with hourly rsi divergence, and am looking to get leveraged long.
    Lower prices were swiftly rejected, and today’s low could be “It” for 2017,with no looking back, as traders try to front run final quarter seasonal bullishness. I am looking for test of yesterdays (25-09) low, or another “Zebedee” which penetrates that low slightly for max misdirection.
    Good Luck

    • CampFreddie says:

      Btw – All above is my own original work and is Imho.
      (also Still Long Us Crude with 387 points of profit locked in)

    • tommyboys says:

      Wow good work Camp. Impressive 👍🏽

    • mcgcapital says:

      That looks like lower highs and lows to me with shorts preferred whilst trading below the ATH. Plus the pattern since March has been to make these marginal new highs then come off 1-3%, then new highs and repeat etc. Would think this pattern will continue until there’s an actual correction.. we’re losing momentum so it’s unlikely there’s a strong upside breakout from here. GL

  34. CampFreddie says:

    Gold – Still med/long term bearish and chart looks terrible, so looking to short into strength.
    Also bearish and sorry to the Gold bulls here, but yesterday Gartman went long with conviction, and we all know Gartman’s endorsement of any asset class is the kiss of death.
    Fading Gartman is consistently profitable. Gartman is the Idiot King of Contrary Indicators – do the opposite of what he says to do and you’ll be fine.

  35. scottycj1 says:

    First is the “TIME” then comes the count. This week has been pegged for a few years as the likely end to the bull market. We still could have a rally tomorrow…..but some times the train leaves the station early. 2520 was a logical Gann target. Why 7 (the most used number in the Bible) X ?

  36. JK1987 says:

    fiona & fotis,
    trends of US dollar and crude oil.
    gold shares the same trends, you can try to plot.
    all up to the dollar.
    https://gyazo.com/c13e0d55272535b7925737ba581a9ddc
    i do not trade any of them, no conflict of interest.

  37. asaraniti says:

    H.D. talked about my qualifiers. Didn’t want to reply until after the close so as to not pollute the site during trading hours any more than I have. I just wanted to show you graphically the importance of /ES defending 2498.75. Should /ES trade above 2498.75, Nano wave 4 (?) is over. That’s the beauty of this algorithm, it gets you out of trouble early…with an object stop and levels to trade.

    We might get lucky and have the break in the overnight session and a pullback to fill tomorrows gap (dotted red ) during the NYSE open. If the gap fill and is defended with a >-400 tick, that would be a delicious entry into the long.

    Chart…
    https://content.screencast.com/users/dhalsey/folders/Jing(2)/media/79b41e6a-dc99-4ccb-9160-7b6467f18378/09.25.2017-16.31.png.

    • asaraniti says:

      BTW if and that is a big “if”, if 2498.75 is broken, their will be an immediate 50% retrace. The high anchor is the overnight high and the low anchor is this afternoons low. The entry into the long would agan be the test of the 50% long with a tick <-400 and an arrow pointing up. Not going to see that in the overnight session but will see that if it trades after the opening bell.

      Chart again…

  38. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $FTSE at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  39. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Relentless Bull! 🙈

  40. Anonymous says:

    It’s the end of a 5 wave rally; the market will not go higher then 2513

Comments are closed.