Weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2500, and didn’t stray too much from that level all week. On Monday the market opened higher, hit a new high in the opening minutes at SPX 2508. Then after only an 8-point pullback, eked out a SPX 2509 print on Wednesday. After the Wednesday FOMC statement/conference, the market pulled back to SPX 2497 then rallied back to 2509 near the close. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2497 again by Friday’s open, then ended the week at 2502. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the NAHB, housing starts, and existing home sales. On the uptick: building permits, import prices, the Philly FED, leading indicators and weekly jobless claims declined. Next week will be highlighted by Q2 GDP, personal income/spending, and the Chicago PMI.

LONG TERM: uptrend

We continue to monitor the DOW and TRAN for potential headwinds to the bull market scenario. As you can observe from the DOW chart, it shows no signs of weakening as it is still in Minor 5 of Int. wave iii. Like the SPX, it still requires an Int. iii top, an Int. iv correction, then new highs during Int. v to potentially end the bull market.

The Transport continue to improve after ending a downtrend low at 9010 in August. The current uptrend is closing in on the all-time high at 9764. Should that high be exceeded, then Major wave 5, from the Major 4 8744 low, is subdividing an extending. This would provide an all clear in 2018.

As noted above, the SPX and DOW are on the same waves count. Intermediate waves i and ii ended in the spring of 2016. Minor waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 have completed, with Minor 5 underway. When it concludes Int. iii will end. Then after an Int. iv correction, Int. v will take the SPX to new highs.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This lengthy Minor 5 uptrend, from the Minor 4 low at SPX 2429 in April, has been quite complex. At times it has looked corrective, but continues to unfold impulsively. Minor 5 is dividing into five Minute waves (i-v). And the rising Minute waves (i, iii, v) are subdividing into five Micro waves (orange).

Minute i ended in June, after 5 Micro waves up, at SPX 2454. Minute ii corrected into July and bottomed at SPX 2408. Since then Minute iii has been underway. Thus far, Micro waves 1 and 2, of Minute iii, have completed at SPX 2491 and 2417 respectively. Micro 3 has been underway since that August low. We would expect the market to at least reach the 2525 pivot before Micro 3 ends. Medium term support is at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot.

SHORT TERM

The hourly chart provides a closer look at this Minor 5 uptrend. In fact, one could see the similarities between Micro waves 1, 2, and 3 of Minute i, and Micro waves 1, 2, and 3 of the current Minute iii. And yes, we are expecting a relatively small Micro 4 when the current Micro 3 ends.

The short term wave structure from the Micro 2 SPX 2417 low remains unchanged: (1) 2455, (2) 2428, (3) 2480-2447-2509. Micro 3 clearly has some more work to do to the upside, with a couple of pullbacks along the way. Then after a Micro 4 pullback, Micro 5 should only end Minute iii of Minor 5. Then after Minute iv pullback, Minute v should take the SPX into, after recent calculations, the 2650 area. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week and gained 0.1%.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 0.7%.

The DJ World index gained 0.2%, while the NYSE gained 0.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds nearly confirmed a downtrend while losing 0.6% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 1.5%.

Gold looks to be in a downtrend and lost 2.1%.

The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, and new home sales. Wednesday: durable goods and pending home sales. Thursday: Q2 GDP (Est. 3.2%) and jobless claims. Friday: personal income/spending, the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

212 Responses to Weekend update

  1. H D says:

    CL, oil, chewed up all the ‘pros’ WIDOWMAKER. and then there is Fiona. She stayed bullish the whole summer trend. Kudos. 52 is a big level IMO.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …hopefully 55, and if we go through that ..62.
      Have a look at UGAZ…it is at the base of my pattern…so tons of upside…just watch..and check your charts…

      • captbara says:

        Got smart and took profits too soon last week! Wonder if there will be a chance to enter again lower.

      • JK1987 says:

        fiona, ihmo, when in good days, prepare for bad days if comes.
        for your oil play. you know, i do not touch them. i only like high winning probability plays 🙂
        oil is having a good day.
        https://gyazo.com/baaebf8d07b40d901cfec4a783ae903f

      • fionamargaret says:

        NUGT could be a double from here…check your own charts…it just started a new sequence…
        I suggested all these in the FT a week ago….oil I have had (along with Fotis) like forever…going to 55..

        • JK1987 says:

          fiona, one time, i did like NUGT very much, but after i took profit on May 18, i don’t want to touch it anymore. i liked it so much that i purchased nearly $1 million worth (screenshot of my account history) of NUGT
          NUGT is around the resistance, and stil is 2 bucks lower than my exit price.
          https://gyazo.com/0bfccb33fac342ace7a62a8a74ca6c8c

          • SPYtrader says:

            What do you think HD? is JK keeping it real !!

            • H D says:

              I’m old enough to remember when we had a community of ideas, respected those ideas and Tony had the stage. This is a total **it show compared to what we have been over the years. JMHO Many have moved on. Feels like I have one foot out already. GL

          • fionamargaret says:

            ..I shall be careful Jack…I worry about you being careful with your money…don’t let internet folks deal with it…x

            • JK1987 says:

              thanks fiona, will do.
              AAPL, from the pattern i see, i won’t be surprised if AAPL lose 50% of its value by 2017 year end. yes, AAPL cut in half by year end, no mistake. i know, AAPL is the biggest market cap co i the world, the prime mister of the whole market.
              that’s my biggest play right now.

              https://gyazo.com/4b492171053590f56994e2af0af2e596

              • JK1987 says:

                fiona, someone mentioned BTK, raising an alarm for me.
                i see it’s very lucrative for the downside play. i might hit it. what’s the inverse 3X fund for it?
                you might want to consider it.
                it’s similar to AAPL on the iPhone launch day. might be slightly higher, might be not, it’s close enough. (i do not see new high coming).
                breaking down the lower TL, will have a free fall.

                BTK is one of the high rank officers in the war game play.
                https://gyazo.com/22d56b6f346dd2dcf41c8ade245847ec

              • fionamargaret says:

                Inverse is FAZ ….3x

              • fionamargaret says:

                Sorry Jack I gave you banks…

              • JK1987 says:

                take easy, i won’t hit it earliest in the am tomorrow if a spike.
                the game plan is selling the high flyer. bank is not one of the high fly, even though still ok.
                remember how big was GE and Citi during 2007 top time, then how small the became later.

                i know, at this stage, nobody in the world would think AAPL by half.
                i said AAPL cut in half by 2017 year end with confidence.
                i have fully studied and prepared, and invested.

              • aahmichael says:

                You also said 100 times that it was impossible for RUT to make new highs. Your calls are as absurd as the DH guy on here who says SPX is going to infinity. This blog has a 3 post limit during trading hours. You consistently post almost 10 times that amount. Perhaps you should go to twitter, and post to your heart’s content. Your stream of (un)consciousness posts are a nuisance here.

              • JK1987 says:

                you know, there are two kinds of people making complains.
                i don’t have time to complain, and complains are bad for emotion and health.
                my time is for study and make
                try it, you be better off stop complaining on internet, real life, anywhere, any occasion, and any time.

                James 5:9
                Do not grumble against one another, brothers, so that you may not be judged; behold, the Judge is standing at the door.

              • JK1987 says:

                this is a sincere suggestion, not personal, not sarcastic.
                if you think and take it seriously, will be good for you.
                i’ve been through this route long ago, costing me money is a small thing, there are much more important lost in the my life, and not reversible.

              • JK1987 says:

                fiona, fyi, tech bounced off the support, should be up tomorrow, should fill today’s 1% gap, that should pull SPX up.
                usually when tech is up (at support now), energy/oil/material/commodity (at resistance now) will go down. they don’t usually go up together with tech, not at this stage. otherwise would be broad base rally of the market.

    • fotis2 says:

      fotis2 says:
      August 30, 2017 at 4:02 am

      CL buy here stop 44.90 target 52.00 HWB

      • phil1247 says:

        nice one buddy………… good work !
        but to hold for a month
        ….its just not in my DNA

      • H D says:

        very nice trade fotis. That looks like an old school comment. Just solid data to act on. I must have missed it hiding in the 5000 posts about extentions of ifs and thens.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Yep – not doing too bad myself with US crude, couple of false starts that scratched, then nailed it.

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Just looking at dates the 4 major indices have topped this year to see if any obvious pattern there doesn’t seem to be. It’s quite random.

    One thing is clear is that DOW (and too a lesser extent SPX) hasn’t had a decent pb since March 1st and even that was weak. I know I’m stating the obvious here but my point is RUT and Nasdaq have had decent pb’s and are worth shorting over DOW/SPX in my opinion.

    Good luck all.

  3. phil1247 says:

    GC
    extension short broke

    possible buy coming up if 1298.4 can support
    just watching for now

  4. llerias7 says:

    Micro iv today…end of minute (iii)/Minor 5 tomorrow or wendsday…2520..

  5. H D says:

    How many bullish posts was that again? I’ll repeat 2508/06 is R for reasons mentioned last week. The DH method is wrong ALOT. Like 50 posts worth. To infinity! and then 20 handles later, ‘that was a failure.’ They might have bottom ticked gold too. Interpret as you see fit.

    • asaraniti says:

      ?
      I’ve been posting comments with charts for a week that stated both the 15 minute and daily charts are bullish until /ES 2490.26 breaks. Check my posts and charts last Thursday for example. If the 50% SHORT holds (see below) targets are a retest of today’s low at /ES 2485 and 2 the profit targets at /ES, 2481.46 and 24.79.75.

      • H D says:

        I have no beef with you asaraniti. That’s a lot of “ifs” though. I don’t think you were claiming infinity and suggesting a 500 point breakout today either. HWB is a huge level, always respect it. GL with the method.

      • phil1247 says:

        asa ……

        fuggeddaboudit…….
        ..
        he is another one who will never get it and you will waste lots of time
        trying to help him understand

        thats why i gave you the honor of answering all es questions… 🙂
        sorry buddy

      • floyd drummer says:

        i like your posts, …please continue.

        thx

  6. scottycj1 says:

    Newbie—–JK
    I have sold all my calls and now I am long puts…..I am now a BEAR.

    I have been waiting for this day for over a year.

  7. travis01 says:

    Swing traders dream setup…sell vix longs Fri after hours pick up shorts before bell Mon. Rinse and repeat. You only have to trade one hour early and maybe one hour at end of day.

  8. asaraniti says:

    Observation.
    The larger 15 minute long (/ES 2490.26) broke. The low is 2485…so far. There will be a counter trend rally. As along as 2498.75 holds, the/ES should trend lower and I believe Tony C. will either call today’s low the beginning of micro 4 or later on today/tomorrow. Let me be clear, if /ES 2498.75 holds there is a very high level of probability that micro 4 started. We’ll see.

    • asaraniti says:

      BTW, on this counter trend rally. If the /ES/SPX truly is in micro wave 4, the second level of confirmation would be 2494.27 holds.

      • asaraniti says:

        /ES 2492.50 is the 50% short from today’s highs/lows. /ES 2494.27 is the 61.8% retrace. A bearish sign for /ES/SPX, “second confirmation” that /ES/SPX is in micro wave 4 would be a test of today’s high lows and fail as opposed to the all time high to today’s lows. That 61.8% retrace sits at /ES 2498.75. The swing trade is having an average fill above 2 ticks /ES 2498.75.

        As I write this post, /ES traded to it’s mornings high low 50% SHORT at 2492.50….so far

  9. jwmcbride says:

    2407 high mentioned last week held 2487 target hit moving toward 2480ish support

  10. fotis2 says:

    Ooops here we go lads expecting JK / Newbie to be in Bear heaven tickets for the Southbound bus almost kaput !!

    • vivelaamo says:

      I think the RUT top may be in. It’s quite consistent with tops all year. Would like to see a failed attempt to make another ATH in the next few days to really confirm. Lets see how we close.

    • JK1987 says:

      fotis, i am bullish on SPX and DJI, they can up as much as they can. i also like to see RUT overshoot the top line as the textbook shown, i don’t mind as i use all cash, no margin, can hold longer.
      RUT short is only my third largest position after adding the other two recently.
      didn’t i tell you AAPL always fall to the ground (newton’s third law of gravity) after new iPhone launched. iPhone 5, iPhone 6, iPhone 7. no exception.
      this time it’s even worst, two iPhone launched (iPhone 8 and iPhone X)
      knowing all these facts, i waited & hit AAPL with put on the launch day Sep 12 during the spike of the failed test of high 🙂
      “Apple iPhone X: Reports of Delays Keep Coming, iPhone 8 Debut ‘Lukewarm’ — Barron’s”

      you can trade anything (spx, dji, gold, oil, usd …), but just don’t touch my girl friends. 🙂
      https://gyazo.com/869a0b042f733a72c4f4b1b39de78b0d

  11. gary61b says:

    ES has Support at 2491.25, looking for lower low and a pop.

  12. stcoleridge says:

    And then there was one.

  13. phil1247 says:

    /CL
    in extension longs …………
    ……yes … now i am interested again….

    bullish above ……………………… 51.05
    next target ……………………………51.58

    guiding us up into 52.43 target

  14. asaraniti says:

    Seems to be some interest in Gold this morning. DH has the following set up.Coming close to an inflection point as GC often trades it’s traditional (large) 50% measured move long. If you draw fibs on your trading platform for GC, Start with the low anchor the week of 7/3 at GC 1204 and a high anchor the week of 8/28 at 1362.40.

    Bottom line for GC…..

    The 50% retrace is 1283.20 the 61.8% is 1264.50. On a 15 minutes chart, if you see GC selling off and bounce at or 1 or 2 ticks above the 50% retrace, with a wick (tail) that would be a very bullish sign for GC with a profit target at 1399.80. Conversely, if GC breaks 1264.50, then GC is going lower.

    https://i1.wp.com/asaraniti.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/gold.png?ssl=1&w=450

  15. vipulm555 says:

    SmartZ,

    We are on track for 2700 ES, Jan/March 2018

    Cheers!

  16. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Rut and Spx after fourth wave consolidation trying to start into 5 (unfortunately imgur.com is not printing my charts this morning).

  17. JK1987 says:

    the truth is,

    tony caldaro says:
    September 24, 2017 at 5:39 am
    P3 is a 15+ year Secular bull market
    There will be several cyclical bull/bear markets along the way.
    And those calling for crashes will miss the entire thing

    the secret is in the “The Quantified Elliott Wave Theory”. if you care to study as Tony generously shared.
    https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/07/08/the-quantified-elliott-wave-theory-oew/

    • mcgcapital says:

      So why are you calling a crash then? May or may not happen, but your posts don’t make sense

    • fionamargaret says:

      JK I am buying TZA at 14, so a little more down…I bought SQQQ a few days ago…

      • JK1987 says:

        fiona
        imho, as long as you are NOT day trading or short term trading, and willing to hold, should be fine and doing very well with both positions. for RUT, PE of 90’s is a guarantee of it won’t stay at that price for long.
        https://gyazo.com/8883378228d6826cd2bf24d7a750fa96

        the three positions i entered all are near their associated top, or secondary top. you know, knowing when to enter is important. need to do lots homework. for example, studied all the historical patterns of iPhone launch with AAPL price pattern, then you know what to do on the iPhone launch day (not launching the rocket 🙂

        DH, to me, is junk, i don’t even bother to read or explore it. why waste my time on it AT ALL. fake stuff. if it’s so good, the DH guy should be very rich, not still trying to sell this junk and making small pennies.
        you know, you can never see really good stuff published on the internet. you know the reason, right?

        recently lots kids are seeking attentions, won’t be bothered.
        when my girl friend seeks my attention, i will respond eagerly 🙂
        not those kids.
        fiona, you are only a few here i am willing to response to. others, just ignore, not worth my time at all.

        • fionamargaret says:

          I bought TZA…look at UGAZ Jack…see what you think..base of my pattern (like oil was), but needs watching…
          I was questioned on TLT too, but it is doing well….xxx

          • JK1987 says:

            https://gyazo.com/30fef48d5c4df9dd536552bf157896a4

            fiona, natural gas, maybe you are seeing it as a bargain?
            but it’s a long term loser, why would it turn around here, any fundamental or technical reasons?
            looks like, after got rejected at the mid blue pitch fork, it’s moving toward the mid red pitch fork, and then might be the lower half of the red pitch fork.
            one thing needs attention, if UGAZ goes beyond the lower red pitch fork, it will (90% probability based on my experience on pitch fork), it will FREE FALL.
            ew labels are tentative.
            sum it up, i do not like the play of natural gas.

            TLT, i like it as TL support holds.

            • fionamargaret says:

              UGAZ is a beast..but if it stays above 11, about 8 upside….needs babysitting though…

              • JK1987 says:

                fiona, i only like beauty, not the beast. 🙂
                for example, maybe you seen i posted my expectation on VIX upside. but uvxy still a no touch for me, no matter how lucrative it is (100X, 500X). i don’t like gamble. a few times, i went to Vegas, i did not gamble at all. i like logical.

  18. To all the DOW lover’s out there…from Atilla….this charts for you!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKV8sTRVYAUH4lR.jpg:large

    • should add the gold lovers out there as well …SPX be careful

      • fionamargaret says:

        I have gold going to 1600….3500 under certain circumstances. I bought at 116 GLD.

        • lunker1 says:

          yes F we know you’ve said it before GLD if the matrix lotto sequence (but no sharing why) yada…and next you’ll give the tickers you’re playing as well. just sayin F…you’re all over Phil (who does share why) but pot kettle black kiddo.

          • fotis2 says:

            Fiona…… uses P&F Gold breakout target 1669……..
            Phil…… waits for a counter trend move failure on DH system before posting…….
            Both systems work longer term trades P&F is miles ahead of DH method….

          • SPYtrader says:

            lunker, I agree. If gold goes to 1600, Fiona will be posting the call that was made (attention seeker).

          • fionamargaret says:

            I sent the charts for GLD, UGAZ, UWT, TMF etc…..and suggested to Vive to buy ERX at its 52 week low….and was told by Stephen long and wrong for UWT.
            Do you want me to resend charts ?? This is not quantum physics….or Green’s method..
            Why would you want to buy and hold for 3 minutes and be rude…

          • fionamargaret says:

            …do you want to discuss variable equations…

          • fionamargaret says:

            Phil is not an honest broker, and have you ever seen him be able to compose even 2 paragraphs about the market….

            • lunker1 says:

              Phil is honest as the day is long maybe you’re just not quick enough to keep up with what he’s putting down I don’t know but don’t criticize what you don’t understand Bob Dylan

  19. phil1247 says:

    GC

    gold is bearish below …………. 1309

    target……………………………………1284
    interestingly that is just above the .50 potential support of long from lows at 1283
    so there may be a buy point coming up
    but until then…………

    stay short ……………………..
    or stay out !

  20. scottycj1 says:

    I just remembered

    CONGRATULATIONS EVERYONE !!!
    Today is September 24th and we are all still here….
    The world did not end yesterday…….wahoooooo

  21. JK1987 says:

    Tony thanks
    “Minute v should take the SPX into, after recent calculations, the 2650 area.”
    is following how the target 2650 calculated?
    SPX 261.8% at 2656 at the top of the red pitch fork.
    https://gyazo.com/fcf4b3dfb8854a31e55fa95f786fafa5

    • tony caldaro says:

      pitchfork are nice, but don’t use them
      the relationship is Minor 5 to Minors 1 and 3

      • JK1987 says:

        Tony, thanks.
        is the calculation something like in the following chart?
        i use standard blue channeling for 1-3-5. does that looks better?
        and it happens to be 261.8% extension as i showed earlier. it’s a match of target price.
        https://gyazo.com/984b135cc2ec9f050fa0bd8d96b958a8
        any expectation of the time line for this target 2650?

        why not use pitch fork?
        i also saw you use it in the long tern DOW chart. does it imply long term upside target at the top of the pitch fork?

        • tony caldaro says:

          the pitch fork gives a channel, nothing else

          • JK1987 says:

            Tony thanks
            true, pitch fork gives a channel, but as the chart i have shown,
            even though SPX is climbing along the blue channel, but the red pitch fork not only covers the blue channel, but also provide a third top line for potential even higher price possibility.
            i am a heavy user of pitch fork.

            bifurcation continues.
            maybe headwinds should be on FAAMG, not TRAN?
            FAAMG been trading heavily and loved by traders / investors / analysts; few people trading on TRAN
            https://gyazo.com/4416e27bd0fed59b244f545ec84e2095

            AAPL -9.7% AMZN -13.3% GOOGL -8% FB -6.5% MSFT -3% TSLA -10.5%
            while SPX could climb the blue channel into 2650, but not these growth techs and NDX.

            same thing during Y2K.
            after 9 months of trading SPX only down 1.5%, DJI down 3% from Q1 2000, but Nasdaq down 17%, NDX was down as much as 40% at May 2000 low.

            maybe this time SPX DJI RUT could continue to make new highs for many more months to come, but not NDX/Nasdaq

            luckily, i am trading all on cash, no margin used.

  22. JK1987 says:

    i will be surprised if RUT does not make new ATH, and with the textbook overshoot.
    https://gyazo.com/25a1bb2b311ce0dc692e03cab6c82c8a

    NO STOP on my RUT short no matter how high it goes (i can afford, not recommend for anybody)
    because,
    “Buffett has said, as many experts have, that trying to time the market is a losing battle. In an interview earlier in 2017, Buffett went so far as to say that attempting to pick times to buy and sell is a mistake for 99% of the population.”

    only RUT 840 will make me close the position – it’s 840 or never cover strategy (for me only).
    this strategy is not for 99.99% people, and only if you can afford.

    Commodities king sees gold surging to $1400 within months
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/24/gold-to-hit-1400-in-months-dont-let-this-correction-spook-you-says-dennis-gartman.html

  23. fionamargaret says:

    Here are some market notes I received today…I posted Kimble on Friday.
    http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisSep_23_17.htm
    Thanks Amateur – Investor

    http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/
    Thanks Colin Twiggs….also scroll down for a very nice quote.

    A note from John Murphy which suggests..
    Rising bond yields may be pulling some money out of technology into cheaper parts of the market.
    Rising oil prices are contributing to higher bond yields
    Rising yields are boosting small caps
    Russell 2000 value I-shares nearing an upside breakout…

    Thanks Tony, and everyone xx

  24. aahmichael says:

    A few comments:
    1. I always check my SPX count with the W5000 because those indexes always have the same count. Because of that, it’s impossible for the 8/21 low to have ended a wave 2 in
    SPX, as that low was lower than the 6/29 low in W5000. That means that the 8/21 low ended a wave 4, or was a subwave of a wave 4.
    2. The Demark Combo/Seq SPX sell signal that came in at the beginning of the week was confirmed at Friday’s close, as it was the lowest close of the past 5 days. This signal is not meant for daytraders.
    3. TNX, TYX, and the Yen have all had strong moves over the last 2 weeks, but all came close to expected resistance levels last week, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them all take a break for the time being, or even reverse a decent amount.

  25. vivelaamo says:

    DAX Is going to gap down after election. If last year taught us anything it was these political events are worth buying.

  26. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. Hard to believe that we’re still in a bull, but then again, that’s what objective analysis is for…
    http://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2017-09-24.html

  27. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks tony and everybody! always great to read everything on here.

    Here’s my analysis of the NASDAQ’s charts, which are rather diverging from the DJIA…

    http://investingintelligent.com/2017/09/24/a-review-of-the-nasdaqs-charts/

    Thus, will tech drag down the cyclicals or will the cyclicals push tech back up? Next week will be very telling.

    GL!!

  28. No nukes dropped or shot or flung or launched yet this weekend–except in the NFL…lol.POTUS dropped a Trump bomb Saturday on those kneeling down during the anthem.Philosophically,there’s a thing called first amendment rights,but the millionaire players are not the ones who are oppressed by anything–except property taxes on their mansions and too much party time.They should be standing straight as soldiers for the opportunity to play in a country that rewards winning the athletic lottery with massive wealth.
    Trump–or ANYONE shouldn’t have to tell a segment of society how to act,but more and more,the attitude of liberal types toward America (the country of the last 240 years)is a destructive one that seeks to replace certain rules of behavior with different ones.The battle is on,as demographics continue to favor minority population growth.They can sense it (and with the help of white liberals) are pushing a different agenda which includes free college,healthcare for all (regardless of ability to pay)wealth transfer and much more.
    The NFL controversy is a microcosm of all of it.Remember when football was fun to watch?

    • aahmichael says:

      So if you’re a white reality TV star like Trump, then you can base your entire presidential campaign on telling people how f*cked up the country is and how unfair is it to whites, but if you’re an African-American sports’ star, then you better walk a straight line and keep your mouth shut, and be grateful that you haven’t been hung from the nearest tree. Uh huh, Got it.

      • They had their chance with Obama and he didn’t do a damn thing for blacks–except give them more welfare.I guess you’ve never lived next to section 8 minorities.Congrats on that.You might see things differently if you had.

      • aahmichael don’t want to talk politics here but have you considered….

        1. The NFL is a multi-billion dollar business, underscore business. They have an image and a brand to protect. 10,000’s of people, directly and indirectly, count on viewership for their jobs and brand image of the NFL.
        2. A professional Football team is a billion-dollar business, underscore business. There have 1,000’s of people whose jobs depend upon viewership and brand image to their customers.
        3. I’m sure both the NFL and the team have separate morality clauses in their contracts.
        4. Viewership and attendance have been down since this .issue rose in prominence.
        5.Taking a knee during the National Anthem is disrespectful to the flag, our country our military and those who died or who were injured to protect the liberties that Kaepernick, et.al. enjoy.
        6.Yes, thank god and our military, we have free speech in this country. But you can’t yell fire in a crowded theatre. In other words, there are limits to our liberties.
        7. Think of our nations youth. These young boys and girls watching a football game and see our athletes taking a knee during the playing of our National Anthem can’t be good for the image and the brand for everything good professional football stands for.
        8. Professional football has been very good to Kaepernick and others who share his views. These athletes have a unique skill that very few American posess. They recived a $300,000 (+) college education for free. The base salary of a professional football player is what, $300,000 a year or better. Many making several million dollars a year. How many people do you know received a free college education at some of oiur best colleges and make 7 figure salaries?
        9. If Kaepernick reality wanted to help African Americans I think his time would have been better spent going into poor neighborhoods and telling our youth to stay away from gangs, stay away from drugs, play sports, study hard. Give them confidence in that if they work hard they can have a great life.
        10. Finally, I would love to see President Trump offer Kappernik an opportunity to company the U.S. Army into an area of conflict and see the good work our military and volunteers are doing. We build homes and infrastructure so they can live more comfortably. We build hospitals so these people can get medical care for the first time in their life. We supply them with seeds to grow crops so they can prevent starvation.Their children can play in the street because our military swept the streets for underground mines and found to be safe…..and what do you see on the trucks, the helicopters airlifting supplies so that these citizens can eat and drink safe foods, to build these buildings, the hospital, etc?…the american flag and evrything good it stands for.

        Bootom line…there is a time and place for everything. I support kapernick and et. al. 100% but taking a knee during the National Anthem is certanly not the time and place.

        • fotis2 says:

          +1000

        • aahmichael says:

          Asa, first of all, neither you nor anyone else can reframe the purpose or define the intentions of those who have chosen to silently and peacefully protest police brutality and racism in this country. Only those who are protesting can define their intentions. Peaceful protests against racism does not equal disrespect for the National Anthem or the American flag. You’re confusing dissent with disrespect. Dissent is not disrespect. It’s patriotic. The fact that so many people have interpreted “Athletes are protesting racism” as “Athletes are protesting America” is telling. Secondly, Kaepernick has always done a tremendous amount of good deeds in his community, including donating huge sums of money (over $1 million,) and also doing things such as buying suits for every inmate who is released from a particular prison so that those people can look presentable when applying for a job. Thirdly, how is taking a knee during the playing of the National Anthem anymore disrespectful to the flag than standing in line waiting to buy a beer or a hot dog while the Anthem is being played? Finally, Patriotism isn’t about making everyone stand and salute the flag. Patriotism is about making this a country where everyone wants to.

    • kjb0 says:

      These are mostly multimillionaire cry babies who put on a costume and play a game for a living. If they didn’t have sports they would be making minimum wage someplace or be in jail. The very least they can do is honor the country that made it possible.

  29. allen kimble says:

    Absolutely nobody is talking about the BIG FAT daily Neg Div on the Dow for the RSI and the MACD http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p67757423813 Yet You have people on here like Phantom Phil and the like that are suggesting a melt up from here. You can’t make this stuff up folks. The TOP is about here. Once we get past the first two weeks in Oct, this Market is going down. Reasons?……It doesn’t matter…it will be something.

    • vivelaamo says:

      See it but that divergence has been going on all year. Top could be tomorrow or still months away.

    • asaraniti says:

      Hi Allen
      Enjoy your posts and charts. Looking at your chart the DOW, it just touched the overbought level (>70) on the RSI. However, if you look at the 2 past times the RSI hit that level, it remained over bought for well over 1 month in 2016 and over 3 weeks in 2017. In those 2 periods of time, the DOW rallied about 800 points in 2016 and over 900 points in 2017. Wouldn’t it be appropriate to wait until; the DOW breaches the 50 day MA before calling for an imminent top or about shorting?

      Regarding the MACD it could be ready to coil but it is still bullish and plenty of room to run before it is overbought, If the DOW is in perhaps micro wave 3 with micro 4 on deck, that could easily account for a possible narrowing of the MACD lines and declining MACD bars.

      Just my .02.

      • allen kimble says:

        Good points asaranti! Yes, I’ll be the first one to admit that the Negative D has been there before and has produced limited downside. Most notably Mid June of this year http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96655572128 However I think the real clue here is Nasdaq and/or the Nasdaq 100. Both are forming a very ominous ending diagonal that looks like extreme distribution, Negative D throughout each new high and on top of that under performing the general market http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p30064889534

        For the ending diagonal we are currently in wave 4. This wave should be over by the end of the upcoming week and then wave 5 to end this pattern.

        I’m very pleased to see I’m alone in this analysis.

        • asaraniti says:

          Regarding the QQQ. Yes, I agree with you there. Putting the OEW analysis aside for a moment. I think what you are see here is distribution by the big boys to the sheeple. . They have, through the F.A.N.G. + et.al. stocks, lifted all equity markets. These stocks may have peaked for the time being and may take down QQQ with them. Next step is to see distribution from small/il-liquid stocks to high/mid-cap/liquid stocks just in case mutual/hedge fund managers need to take large sums of money off the table without depressing price…too much.

          Getting back to OEW this could be the beginning of either macro/minute wave 4 action. I think this process takes time. Can’t re-distribute billions of dollars of stock overnight. Nor do they want to see a sudden top without giving these managers time to take the market back up into a wave 5 as they distribute more stock to the sheeple.

          Still think waiting until the RSI falls below 70, MACD curls under and the 50 day is breached before thinking about shorting.

        • scottycj1 says:

          Your not alone…..but your timing is still off.

    • stcoleridge says:

      What was that about huge egos?

    • Asa introduced a number of interesting considerations but even if what you say were taken to be true, there is no law that indexes must peak concurrently. In 2000, the Dow peaked in early January while the SPX peaked in early March suggesting SPX could easily drift, edge or grind higher for two months or more after the Dow has peaked. And based upon Tony’s latest count, there’s certainly room for a couple of “melt up” days along the way. Just my opinion and contribution to a discussion.

    • tommyboys says:

      That’s hardly a “big fat” div on RSI and using the MACDh (more reliable imho) there is none at all. With new ATH in A/D on Friday I can’t see any huge drop anytime soon. By then the RSI likely to be much higher as well.

  30. vivelaamo says:

    Further to yesterdays RUT post. I forgot to mention since Jan top the average duration of rally’s from high to low has been approx 32 days. Latest rally is now 35 days long.

    Looking to short RUT on open with stop at 1470 and target is 1378. Quite a large stop but decent risk reward.

    Like to here anymore views on the RUT…

    Now watch us rally on open and blow out my stop 🙂

  31. torehund says:

    Reverting to yourself.

  32. torehund says:

    Tony, you are taking end of bull, dont you think bull is startingi in a P—III. Yhy so pessimistic ?

  33. torehund says:


    Joel Scousen, the credible indipendent,

  34. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: More Volatility Compression Ahead
    http://sentimentsignals.blogspot.com/

  35. phil1247 says:

    RUT

    bull above …………………………1437
    target ………………………………..1497

    just showing the “ladder” of extensions leading RUT up to 1497 target
    good description asa !

    how do you like your new job as ES answer man ? 🙂

    • SPYtrader says:

      You are doing a magnificent job Phil…thank you.

    • phil1247 says:

      SPX………….

      melt up more likely than melt down
      bottom two charts show … you are here ?

    • asaraniti says:

      Hi phil1257, I enjoy reading your posts and charting, thanks. I think it would help all, if you could post a short term view with your low/high anchors in one chart and another chart showing the larger move with it’s low/high anchors. Finally, taking out the Bollinger bands would un-complicate the chart.

      Just my .02

      • phil1247 says:

        yes … agree
        but on these charts i just wanted to show
        the gestalt of the market … not the detail

        its like looking at a chest radiograph…
        you can see the detail of ribs. clavicle, shoulder . heart .. lungs…etc
        but what about the huge mass behind the heart that someone standing
        behind you can see a mile away ?

    • Phil 1247: What do minus signs in front of 23.6% (-23.6%) mean?

  36. Thanks Tony for a great WE edition of OEW. Yesterday Phil asked next “how do we know micro wave 3 has completed?” You succinctly answered it “needs to confirm 4 more waves”. In my mind this would strongly suggest we are still in nano 1 of micro 3, something you more or less confirmed today when you reviewed and commented on recent counts. Quoting Tony: “The short term wave structure from the Micro 2 SPX 2417 low remains unchanged: (1) 2455, (2) 2428, (3) 2480-2447-2509. Micro 3 clearly has some more work to do to the upside, with a couple of pullbacks along the way. While it seems obvious, I would still like to confirm the couple of pullbacks would be nano 2 and nano 4, correct?

  37. Anonymous says:

    Sorry 2322 as target, not 2233.

  38. Anonymous says:

    Tony,
    Reviewing the S&P on daily and intra-day charts I have the impression there is a good case to make for minor wave 4 (blue) to have ended at 2322.25 in stead of 2328.95 as you mention on your charts. The rally from 2322.25 to 2370.04 looks like a 5-wave advance, followed by an irregular second wave to 2328.95. If this is the case, then I can count 9 waves up from the 2322.25 low and, although a couple of tiny waves are still missing over the next one to two weeks, those waves should end a 5th wave up from the 1991 low of the end of June 2016. An October correction could then in principle target 2400 or even 2233.

  39. llerias7 says:

    Tony, as far I understood the Minor 5 top (around 2650) “only” finishes P3, right? Still a P4 and P5 to go (2019?) to end the Bull(!)?

  40. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Great update as always and I agree with your SPX targets.. My thoughts on the RUT below. (a top could be in) Have a great weekend!!

    A SWING TRADERS DREAM :

    Average rally from higher lows = 83.36 points or 6.18%.
    Latest rally is now 7.77% which suggests another top is in or very close to it. BUT the average new high has been by 15 points or 1.08% which suggests we could squeeze as far as 1468

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