Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rebound, DOW -10

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 4-points below yesterday’s SPX 2501 close. Right after the open the market rebounded to SPX 2501 by 10:30. Then the market retested the low at SPX 2497 by 1:30. After that the market rallied to SPX 2503 in the closing minutes, and ended the week at 2502.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds rose 5 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold bounced $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. This week the Q3 GDP estimate remained at 2.2%.

The market opened at the low today, bounced, then remained in the opening range for most of the day. For the week the entire trading range was 12 points. This follows the last four days of last week, which had a trading range of 10 points. This market is going nowhere fast. Obviously, no change on the short term count. Fortunately we have plenty to write about in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

33 Responses to Friday update

  1. bfquant says:

    The tight range in the S&P is similar to what we saw in late July. This resolved into the Aug 8 pop and drop. I am expecting something similar on Monday or Tuesday.

  2. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony….and everyone xx

  3. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and crew 🙂

  4. Good evening all.

    Wasn’t planning on posting till Monday morning but with most of the posters on this board calling for a top, I felt compelled to write this post. Usually, the SPX pulls/leads the other index’s to new highs. Currently, the DOW is taking that responsibility. On SPX, both the 15-minute chart and the daily charts are bullish. It is mathematically impossible for a trend change to occur without the /ES futures breaking at a minimum the 15 minute LONG at /ES 2490.26.

    In terms of EW, this weeks activity may have been a shallow triangle or a flag/pennant. This, coupled with a coiled spring (narrow trading range) and it looks to me that the most bearish count is that the SPX has completed a wave 4 of some degree. The most bullish count is that SPX is still in micro 3. I also feel the /ES will test its profit target at /ES 2513, which just so happens to fill the last unfilled gap. So let’s take one day at a time and let the market tell us when it’s time to call it a top.
    Have a great weekend.

    Chart…

    • fionamargaret says:

      You are doing a magnificent job Asaraniti…thank you.

    • Nice work Asaraniti. Agreed, predicting tops and/or bottoms is pure trading foolishness. Developing proven system(s) is step 1, and step 2 is simply letting the system(s) give permission to take action (or not) one day at a time. The most consistent high Return-to Risk trading is without question the most boring. “Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there.” —- William Eckhardt 

  5. Good evening all.

    Wasn’t planning on posting till Monday morning but with most of the posters on this board calling for a top, I felt compelled to write this post. Usually, the SPX pulls/leads the other index’s to new highs. Currently, the DOW is taking that responsibility. On SPX, both the 15-minute chart and the daily charts are bullish. It is mathematically impossible for a trend change to occur without the /ES futures breaking at a minimum the 15 minute LONG at /ES 2490.26.

    In terms of EW, this weeks activity may have been a shallow triangle or a flag/pennant. This, coupled with a coiled spring (narrow trading range) and it looks to me that the most bearish count is that the SPX has completed a wave 4 of some degree. The most bullish count is that SPX is still in micro 3. I also feel the /ES will test its profit target at /ES 2513, which just so happens to fill the last unfilled gap. So let’s take one day at a time and let the market tell us when it’s time to call it a top.
    Have a great weekend.

    Chart…

  6. Too boring a day to waste time on,but everyone who is so sure that the market would NEVER collapse with A-D lines at new highs…remember the saying:Past performance is no indicator of future results.Just because it HASN’T crashed in this situation,doesn’t mean it can’t.One well placed NK bomb (hydrogen or not),would clear a few hundred S&P points–if and when the markets opened.The algos would beat down PPT in the short term–depending on damage.This war of words has ramped up,but could just as easily be nothing more than Jerry Springer fake fighting as well.
    Have a good weekend all.

    • vivelaamo says:

      There will be no Hydogen bombs. All the latest tests and rethoric has been to put NK in a good position when they finally decide to find a resolution. If the market has at all been held back by NK fears (not that I think it has). Then imagine the rally when all this dies down.

      Have a good werkend all.

  7. Thanks Tony. By most accounts we can dismiss this a lazy 6 pt gap close day with the muscle, predictably, coming in late in the afternoon. There was net buying throughout the day but from late morning until the push to close the gap began buying increased by 55K contracts which would normally move the needle 11pts or more ……….but today it moved by only 5 pts. I’ve seen this before but still do not understand it. That said, awareness of increases in buying or selling provides useful guidance.

    • JK1987 says:

      Steve, Déjà Vu ?
      was you in the market during early May, 2010?
      AD made new ATH there.
      i am counting my 10 fingers. 🙂

      • JK1987 says:

        Steve, Déjà Vu was not fat finger as they reported.
        it’s the same thing with the 3 examples i sent to you.
        it’s happening over and over again.
        and this is just series one.

        • JK1987 says:

          Steve, one last one before i hike. too may posts.
          i am afraid i have to say no to the wsj article, it was not the most mysterious event.
          i saw it was coming and was in communication with one bank’s senior VP and told him that.

          those examples i sent truly worth a million dollar, don’t waste it.
          plug those into 2010, you will know exactly why it was happened.
          no fat finger, no high-freq trader, no program trading …

          as JK said, i have an AI chip plugged in, store all the data, patterns so that i can idenfy “things” quickly, just kidding, lol

          see ya
          cheers!

  8. Jk didnt you state that a new high in russel means a whole new evaluation?-

    • JK1987 says:

      correct

      no new high on RUT, was only a hair away at 1451.506, then drifted away.
      i still committed to the notion of no new high for RUT 1452.09 Top
      i don’t care about if iwm or future new high or not, cash RUT is the one.

      can someone buy a large amount of RUT to make new high to invalidate my notion? 🙂

      • JK1987 says:

        oh, i call that RUT 1452.09 Top as permanent Top.

        Russell 2000 P/E RATIO at 92.18 at today Sep 22, 2017
        give me a break!!! that’s more than double the P/E RATIO of s&p 500 at 2000 peak!

      • its interesting I thought it had printed a new high I was saying the same thing the other day..we have a head and shoulders and the right shoulder cant take out the old high ,,,but its rare it will get this close….if u and i are correct it would be the greatest call in history,.also did u note the commitment of traders some crazy numbers on russel me thinks it was a mistake …

  9. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    regarding spx count
    as i understand it …overlap at 2490.87 would be allowed now
    but overlap at 2480.4 would not be allowed
    then overlap at 2490 .87 would no longer be allowed after micro wave 3 completes
    correct?
    next question…how do we know micro wave 3 has completed?

  10. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks

    a fact – A-D new ATH
    Tommy, worth a celebration of your favorite A-D? 🙂

Comments are closed.