Thursday update

SHORT TERM: another narrow range inside day, DOW -53

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 jobless claims were reported lower, plus the Philly FED was higher. The market opened one-point below yesterday’s SPX 2508 close, then began to pullback. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher. Then at 10:30 the SPX hit the low of the day at 2499. After that the market went into the drift up mode. By 12:30 the SPX hit 2506, then pulled back to 2501 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold lost $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot.

The market opened two-points bel0w yesterday’s SPX 2509 high, pulled back to within two-points above yesterday’s SPX 2497 low, then traded in a seven-point trading range for the rest of the day. Exciting, right? A short term negative divergence has been in place since Monday at SPX 2508. And despite a couple of pullbacks the market has still not reached oversold. Not much action today, and no change in the count. Short term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day near oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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134 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Good evening all.

    Wasn’t planning on posting till Monday morning but with most of the posters on this board calling for a top, I felt compelled to write this post. Usually, the SPX pulls/leads the other index’s to new highs. Currently, the DOW is taking that responsibility. On SPX, both the 15-minute chart and the daily charts are bullish. It is mathematically impossible for a trend change to occur without the /ES futures breaking at a minimum the 15 minute LONG at /ES 2490.26.

    In terms of EW, this weeks activity may have been a shallow triangle or a flag/pennant. This, coupled with a coiled spring (narrow trading range) and it looks to me that the most bearish count is that the SPX has completed a wave 4 of some degree. The most bullish count is that SPX is still in micro 3. I also feel the /ES will test its profit target at /ES 2513, which just so happens to fill the last unfilled gap. So let’s take one day at a time and let the market tell us when it’s time to call it a top.
    Have a great weekend.


  2. blubrd67 says:

    Most seem to be expecting lower low, but this 4th might be shallow and over

    • allen kimble says:

      Top calling is a fools game or rather something Newbie does. Please….we don’t need another Newbie, his mind is clogged with top calls and crash calls. An amateur approach for sure.

      Please trade smart my friend

      • mcgcapital says:

        Newbie is just funny.. I’m sure he believes it will crash one day but I think when he posts he’s generally joking. Smart traders trade both ways.. of you’re pretty much buy and hold then trading has been a bit boring since March

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Rotation rotation rotation.

    I’ve posted a lot today and before one of the post police comment on this. Let me just say hardly anybody is posting so it’s not like posts are getting lost in the ‘noise’. There’s nothing to get lost. Think about that next time you get all high and mighty on the post count. You know who you are!

  4. market looks like it well sell off to 2491 ish at the last 30 minutes of the close. then you get your Monday ramp to 2516 or 2531 before next correction to 2480 or lower.

    Have a nice weekend all

  5. stcoleridge says:

    Here we go, the oh so predictable running of the RUT stops.

  6. JK1987 says:

    Facts about Mahendra Sharma S&P prediction

    Alerts: “S&P would start falling from 2407 level or bear market to start from 8 April 2017 predicted on 21 Feb 2017 … Mahendra Sharma”

    1. 8 April 2017 is a Saturday, not a trading day. Mahendra Sharma did not even check the calendar, simple mistake. small always leads to big as he claims to be big on the time.

    2. 7 April 2017 closed at 2360, not 2407. 2407 won’t be visited until May 25. Big mistake on time by one month and 18 days. That’s huge mistake on his “Wave of Nature” of the most important time element. his calculation of planetary movement missed by a thousand mile.

    3. from 7 April 2017’s 2360 to 2508.85, a negative return of 6.76%, or 148 S&P points.

    4. from 2407 to 2508.85, a negative return of 4.33%, or 101 S&P points.

    Mahendra Sharma’s “Wave of Nature” probably is based on India’s planetary movement as he learned from his father in India.

    conclusion: Mahendra Sharma’s 21 Feb 2017 call of “20-30% by halloween” should be dis-credited.

      • JK1987 says:

        getting close 1451.32, but i still believe RUT will not exceed previous top of 1452.09
        it’s the same thing as 2007 top.
        if violated, i will review the position.
        but tza is at all time low by about 20c.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Prepare to reassess my brother. It not today then early next week. Mark my words. I am one with the RUT. We are kindred spirits.

          • JK1987 says:

            vive, thank you.
            even though tza is in the hole, currently i still have no stop, and firmly believe it’s IMPOSSIBLE for RUT to exceed the previous Top. it’s all due to the structure, i have at least 3 cases with the same structure.
            if i am wrong, will review.

            • vivelaamo says:

              Hardly impossible. 1452 is less than 4 points away. Or do you mean a new all time high will not be made?

              Either way good luck.

              • phil1247 says:

                RUT target 1497

              • JK1987 says:

                vive, i firmly confident that RUT previous Top of 1452.09 is the permanent Top, and will not be exceeded.
                i emailed Stephen about the structure, and examples, and why it would be the permanent Top. it’s gettingg close, but still looking good to me.
                of course, i could be wrong. will review if otherwise.
                Stephen advice me about the money management.
                i share with him with the technical.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Jk if you looking for the monster move down what’s a few points higher? Or does it totally change the pattern? Feel free to share your charts with me 😊

              • JK1987 says:

                vive, i did posted charts here for all 5 major indices a few days ago. (spx exceeded by 0.5 points, so you can say i were wrong).
                you did not like the big red arrow down. the arrow down is just descriptive of where it’s going. of course, won’t be a straight down, will be a process.
                even though i do not trade SPX, i am fairly confident that SPX will decline about 30%, seventeen hundred more points from here. and i know where it should stop.
                it will be a a series of “decline” (no C word since people are upset about the C word).

                i know, nobody will believe this kind of “trash talk”, so this post will attract some criticism. that’s ok, i share what i see (only the outcome, not the process). it’s only for people willing to think about it with an open mind.

                Steve helps me on the money management, so i sent all details of RUT with examples (with confidence), and other important charts to him as appreciations.

                learned from fotis, everyday counts.

    • tommyboys says:

      Yes as stated earlier. Mahendra 50/50 at best and has cost lots of people money. The RUT will go significantly higher as a tax reform program gets closer ad closer. The small companies stand to benefit the MOST from tax reductions.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    RUT still strong. New Tax plan on the cards and market knows it.

    • I always chuckle when I hear:

      A) people wrongly believing that “news” and geo-political events drive markets (they do not), and…

      B) people showing their confirmation bias when A) happens by coincidence, and…

      C) people believing that health care reform is going to happen (it will not), tax reform is going to happen (it will not – the last time took 2+ years of bi-partisan efforts, will never happen in this environment), and infrastructure spending is going to happen (it will not – do you really thing the right will spend one thin dime on public projects? keep dreaming…)

      Considering A, even if anything in C happens (it won’t), it would be a red herring to the markets anyway.

      • vivelaamo says:

        I know nothing of Tax reform. It was a throwaway comment. I’m just saying what I see. The market likes small caps right now for whatever reason! They will like it until they don’t.

  8. gary61b says:

    ES I am anticipating a possible move up to 2503 before continuing down to finish this PB, the 2487 level has some support.

  9. fionamargaret says:


    • fionamargaret says:

      …if you want a number for VXX..38 is ideal, but 41 might be the lowest you can get…
      TMF, JNUG, NUGT, ERX , FCX… XEG.TO and XGD.TO …if you want stocks.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I have oil going to 55, and then 60’s…Goldman(?) research note this morning upped their target to…55.

  10. phil1247 says:

    long from es 2496

    lets see

  11. scottycj1 says:

    2506.25 important today—cash spx

  12. Good morning all…

    My analysis for this mornings trading…bottom line…

    1. Both the 15 minute and daily charts continue to be bullish.
    2. /ES tested the large 15 minute measured move long and was defended…BULLISH. The overnight low was 2492.00.
    3. There is a micro 50% SHORT at /ES 2499.75 (the anchors are yesterdays high and this mornings low) that could lead the /ES back down to retest the larger measured move long. Not drawn on the chart because the larger 50% LONG traded and defended and thus has a higher probability of occurring.
    4. If there is another test of the 50% or 61.8% retrace around the open, that would be an amber warning sign as a second test is always a dangerous test…we’ll see.
    5. As long as /ES stays above 2490.26 the chart is bullish with an expected gap fill and a test of the profit target at /ES 2513.74.


    • Excellent analysis. Appreciate it.

    • aahmichael says:

      Asa, can you explain the difference between a measured move long, a 50% retracement long, and an extension long? These are not EW terms, and it would be helpful to understand what they refer to. Thanks.

      • asaraniti says:

        aahmichael..Just got back from DMV, CT talk about the stone ages…

        Can’t answer your question fully, would take many paragraphs. Simplistic answer is,looking at my chart/post this morning. If the /ES rallies and hits the profit target and begins to sell off, an immediate updated analysis would be the low anchor on Wednesday to this mornings high. 50% retrace would be a measured move long. If /ES rallies above the profit target by >4 ticks, an immediate updated anchors would then be drawn from Wednesday’s high to this mornings high. The 50% retrace is your entry into the long and that is terms an extension long.
        Think of the “anatomy of extension longs” as a staircase looking rally…back test it yourself, amazing how it works. Again, ideally the entry would test the 50% retrace, the tick <-400 and the arrow turning up. Set stop 2-4 ticks below the 61.8% of that entry. Hope this helps.

        • aahmichael says:

          Today’s low is lower than Wednesday’s low. If the market rallies and hits your profit target and begins to sell off, then why would the low anchor become Wednesday’s low instead of today’s low? Thanks.

          • vivelaamo says:

            Aah join the 14 day free trial. There are videos that explain it all.

          • asaraniti says:

            aahmichael ..short answer follow vivelaamo post. Long answer, when a large measured move is formed and drawn, the 50%, 61.8% and profit target are etched in stone until either the profit target is tested or the 61.8% level is breached. I choose my words very carefully.

            • aahmichael says:

              I get that, but that doesn’t answer my question. Today’s low is lower than Wednesday’s low. Assuming that your profit target is reached and the market sells off, then why would the new bottom anchor become Wednesday’s low rather than today’s low?

              • asaraniti says:

                aahmichael..I will not answer any more questions on trading this algorithm. Tony C. has been very patient with phil1247 and me. This is a OEW board and I will respect that. My future posts will be limited to trying to augment OEW with /ES trading. Specifically braking key levels to confirm Elliott Waves.

              • aahmichael says:

                Ok. I’m just saying that the following sentence of yours makes no sense:

                “If the /ES rallies and hits the profit target and begins to sell off, an immediate updated analysis would be the low anchor on Wednesday to this mornings high.”

                In EW and OEW, fib measurements of a rally wave are taken from where the rally wave began to where it ended. If ES rallies and hits your profit target, then that rally would have begun at this morning’s low, not Wednesday’s low. (because today’s low was lower than Wednesday’s low.)

        • Asaraniti, I’ve found that a more effective exit stop is one held wider at the 78.6% fib (smaller size wider stop). The 61.8 gets hit and then a bounce occurs prior to the 78.6 being hit. Saves a lot of whipsaws and allows either 1) winners from what would be losers or 2) smaller losses from what more often would be larger losses. Note: this is swing trading Hourly or higher time frames—not day trading short time frame charts.

    • phil1247 says:


      i will leave all the es questions and analysis to you
      no sense duplicating our efforts
      good luck

  13. tommyboys says:

    Magendra Sharma – astrologer – been calling for big crash – outta no where – most of the year but especially since late July. Still holding out until halloween. 20-30% he’s been saying. Lots of followers been shorting per his rec for months. I’ve followed him for years. He’s right 50% of the time. Lots getting killed by him.

    • mcgcapital says:

      What’s his reason for a crash? Hope it doesn’t happen as the only way it goes that far that fast from this kind of environment is nukes

    • vivelaamo says:

      Tommy you’re not turning bearish are you?

      • tommyboys says:

        Vive I’m bullish through at least spring when we may get a sharp correction but longer term we’ll be in a bull market for years. May go sideways or even net lower for months at a time but will still be in a net bull market. What we experienced in ’00 & again in ’07 were generational events and taken together were a once/saeculum event. The fact they they occurred back to back in less than a decade has squashed sentiment for the longer term having everyone considering it ‘normal’ and needing to occur every decade. Not the case of course. Just posted the Mahendra info to add to the number of crash call.

        MC he is an ‘astrologer’ so has something to do with the planets being aligned the same as they have been during other crashes. You are correct however crashes do not occur squarely off tops. They need time to develop while markets deteriorate. With AD at ATH won’t occur by halloween imho.

    • scottycj1 says:

      He also said a year ago we were going to 3200 by now……then changed his mind.

      • tommyboys says:

        He’s biased against Trump. As soon as Trump won election he changed his tune from SP 3000+ to bear market based on Trump’s “chart”. His followers have been in pain ever since.

    • vivelaamo says:

      These nutcases are not even worth being mentioned. India is full of them.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    “The mentally deranged behaviour of the US president openly expressing on the UN arena the unethical will to ‘totally destroy’ a sovereign state … makes even those with normal thinking faculty think about discretion and composure,” Kim said.

    He’s got a point. Trumps comments though brutally honest are probably not helpful.

    • Sethu N says:

      Testing a hydrogen bomb in Pacific Ocean can trigger a Tsunami which can submerge the Guam Island and affect Japan also.

      • tommyboys says:

        OK last post – errr – didn’t post all week so…
        If nothing else Rocket Man oughta be uniting herds of liberal environmentalists behind Trump and supporting his premise of “destroying NK”. If that nut puts an H-Bomb in the ocean it will be catastrophic on sea life. When we were kids we threw M-20s & M-80s in the canal and dead fish surfaced everywhere. Can you imagine the whales and dolphins and sharks etc… that a shock wave like that will take out?

    • tommyboys says:

      Trump just putting the world on notice if the immature & deranged rocket man for some reason launches a missile at us or an alliie there is just no way to attack that small peninsula without completely destroying it. In the end its us or them – that’s 30M people vs hundreds of millions/billions. Morally what is the correct response to a crooked punk kid dictator oppressing tens of millions and threatening the free world? What would Obama do? Allow him to continue testing? I think Trump spot on. Someone has to have the balls to call a spade a spade. Enough decades of pussy-footing around real issues.

      • We have been dithering with them for decades. Clinton signed an agreement with them in 1994 under which they would de-weaponize their nuclear program and receive, in exchange, 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil every year to make up for the theoretical loss of the reactor. Bush just gazed at NOKO while Obama exercised strategic patience. The platoons of State Department types still want a negotiated settlement while omitting Chinese oil from recent UN sanctions. I think we are really going to squeeze China to obtain their assistance in controlling Rocket Man…….but they have been using Rocket Man to commit nuclear blackmail. No discussion of the yuan, trade, theft of intellectual property and the militarization of small islands and shoals.

    • fotis2 says:

      Sweet talking to someone who is threatening violence works in Hollywood in real life on it is taken as weakness and gets your ass handed back to you in a plate faster then you can say ”I will call the cops” Trump knows this

  15. vivelaamo says:

    As expected it looks like we are starting to pb again after FOMC in a very similar way to the last 4. Will need to look at how big those pb’s were and it could give an indication of how large this one will be too. It’s worth noting every pb fails to make a new low. Going long once this pb starts to bottom could set you up for nice Santa rally so 2420 area again would be a gift.(or maybe it’s too early). I think weekly Gap fills look a fair initial target for shorts.

    RUT tends to drop the most and even that failed to make a new low a couple of weeks ago. Gap fill around 1403.

    I’m seeing cycle bottom posts at ATH’s. How is that even possible?

    Have a Friday all.

  16. JK1987 says:

    Sep 22
    SPX target 2474

  17. learnedmylesson25 says:
    Interesting article on gold and a plan by China to devalue the dollar toward year end.

  18. Would not be surprised if wave 4 ends 2490 and market rally’s to new highs tomorrow. If opens near 2491 im buying. Good night and good luck

  19. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Well Ira only had a PM report–no equity analysis because of the Jewish holiday,which reminds me of the saying,”Sell on Rosh Hashana buy on Yom Kippur.”Also fits in with seasonals on Nasdaq I jotted down yesterday.Does the market go down because of the Jewish holiday?How about Shemitah?Christmas?I ‘ll let you decide for yourself.
    Nothing new from yesterday on gold.22274 on the Dow is the key number and overnight,looks shaky at best.Good luck all.

  20. jobjas says:

    BTC correction continues !

  21. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks Tony….and everyone xx
    Horszowski playing Bach live at 94 years..a heads up to Tony that his best years have yet to come, and a really old recording (1913), which if you remember the band played as the Titanic sank…no hidden meaning, but you will have memories of your own surrounding this…mine.. Salvation Army, rain, cobblestones, donation boxes and thanks…..x

    • kvilia says:

      Last time markets corrected, dollar stormed up and gold went down. Let’s see if this is a repeat.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I don’t know dropped a sequence, but is still bullish on my pattern. Cramer was suggesting buying gold as an insurance policy you hope you don’t need.
        I am so glad you came back…thought you would notice Horszowski is playing Franck, not Bach…x

        • kvilia says:

          It maybe just one of very few reason to come here. This place has become a zoo.
          BTW, appears gold is rebounding and dollar/equities are dropping due to NK rhetoric, so maybe non event again.

  22. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Spx, Ndx (futures) bottoming

    • NEWBIE says:

      Bottoming are you serious? We are headed to at least 2480, then either collapse or one more wave up.

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        futures are looking weak after long time

      • kvilia says:

        Relax Newbie:
        locanbbs says:
        September 21, 2017 at 8:07 pm
        UPDATE: Spx, Ndx (futures) bottoming >>>ES = 2499.25.
        9:23 pm >>> ES = 2493.12

        If 2490 (line in the sand) does not hold, which I think will happen, look for a mini crash, meaning forget about 2480. I am thinking 2360 – 2400 in the BEST case scenario.
        Funny thing, US markets are closed and Europe has not opened yet.
        Let’s see if 2490 is taken out first.

        • Jack Sparrow says:

          there is too much complacency in the market..we sat above 2500 for three trading days and above 2490 for two weeks with such low volatility – no one is worried that we are at ATH

          • kvilia says:

            Jack, soon they will start worrying when they look at their account balances. Investor confidence=greed, ES daily extremely overbought, worst seasonality and ATH, and they want more. Even after Fed confirmed unwinding the balance sheet (unwind =
            sell), the geniuses here are calling for SPX 3000. Buy low sell high is not for smartz, my friend.

          • Bud Fox says:

            Jack and excellent comment. Great. Simply Great….. ***** 5 stars

          • paulo alonos says:

            Forget ‘worried,’ most are expecting new highs.

      • locanbbs says:

        My “bottoms” are short-term. The market certainly looks weak now, but is being held up by “intensive care units”. Certainly frustrating for the bears!

    • tommyboys says:

      Locanbbs, you post cycle lows often. Tues/Wed this week was a low – although it appears to have maybe occured 24 hours later yesterday – with the next one due Oct 3. What about highs? When is the high due between yesterday and the 3rd? TIA

      • locanbbs says:

        On Sept. 20 there was a strong spike lower and a one-period recovery, which confirms the market bottom. The second early low yesterday is not unusual. Could be a shorter cycle bottom, which I don’t follow as it’s too confusing. OR it could demonstrate general market weakness and a real trend change, seeing that the recovery yesterday was certainly of the PPT variety and was relatively weak (dead cat bounce; they appear to be desperate/obsessive now). Beginning October should bring us more clarity. These days you have to play one day at a time.
        It’s beginning to become a habit now: Futures controlled by PPT, regular market by algos aided by news media. Hard to trade.

      • locanbbs says:

        Unfortunately, highs are not easily forseen and are definitely not (exactly) cyclic, more market technical. I have a number of indicators that, combined, do it pretty well. Also chart signals can help. Problem is that these chart signals are often overrun and undependable. The PPT can push constantly up, but sometimes the algos together with news events break the defense lines abruptly and signals generally come too late.

  23. Don’t Expect to see 2500 anymore…. History Repeats October 1987

  24. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #NATGAS at

  25. Bud Fox says:

    Yes, pleased to read, TC is back…Now, my investment view has always been
    to invest, opposite the popular EW pattern. That said. This OEW pattern looks wrong. 2508 may not be the absolute
    SP500 price top/peak. But, I think it is. From the 2417 low, we appear to be completing
    a W3 of a potential 5th wave up. If correct then we – at 2508 – are nearing or maybe. Even at a
    current levels, the SP Top….In the many years of reading Tony’s work. Which is superior.
    I have rarely if ever – offered a different call — tonight. I am taking the otherside of the
    trade. Best wishes TC…….end

    • Bud Fox says:

      One last point of contention – is the DJTA – I feel this index has already crest, if
      correct – a negative signal for the DJIA, IMHO….

    • jhjoyner says:

      Since when did you become an OEw expert?
      Show your credentials.

      • Bud Fox says:

        Me “jhjoyner…..great comment. I have been invested, and monitoring the SP500
        since that great day in 1982. When my Bull market signals went flashing. In the past.
        I have been a reg. Investment advisor. Appearing, long ago on CNBC and with Ira Espteins weekend program. joyner, is ou wish You can call IRA and see if he remembers me….My name back then was Raymond Kalenda. Oh, and I do not wish too sound like
        some great person – that’s not me. But, point being I have been around the block, with the 1987, etc. And my name Bud Fox, was taken form the movie Wall Street. And, now you know the rest of the story…..thank yuou for asking…….Bud

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Bud, I must say, I have to agree. A triple series of 1-2’s spanning almost 200 points on the S&P is just not realistic. For the last couple of months, I’ve been counting this (since the 2322.25 low as 1-2,1-2-3-4-(5),3-4 with 5 either complete or nearly complete. And, during that time frame I’ve seen nothing to change that count. Congrats on the guts to speak up.

      • Bud Fox says:

        Well, in this chart. I was attempting to show the wave structure,
        as I see it. he appear to suggest a more negative
        price pattern going forward. That is exactly what I am seeing.
        Now in that chart, I am count from the 1982 Low, there appears to be
        5 waves up, with the 5th completed or nearly so….

        Attemepting to focus on the lng term trend,for a change in trend that maybe
        easy to read/see….that all…

      • Bud Fox says:

        Oh, it is not guts, although I know what you mean. I consider Tony,the EW guru, and I bow to his wisdom, in the end. That said, nothing wrong with sharing a different view.
        I shall let this idea die, right here. But, in time. This wave pattern will be seen by all.

        • Bud Fox says:

          On a side note. I think the investor, is much to optimistic. Adding to that
          note. We are in the late stages of a Bull market, that much is clear to me.

  26. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    A trading day with too much about nothing. Water leveling out in markets and here at the wave spot, tranquilo.

  27. asaraniti says:

    As a follow up to both Jack Sparrows and my post (this morning), I try, at times to draw a relationship between OEW and DH algorithm trading system. Meaning, offering an additional technical tool to confirm OEW (if one even exists). Specifically, I don’t believe it is possible for OEW to label micro wave iv without /ES breaking the 61.8% long at /ES 2490.26. But now I look at the chart below and I am wondering if the last 2 days of activity is forming a “shallow” triangle for micro wave iv?

    Anyhow, in my morning post, I suggested a retest of a 50% micro long before a possible gapfill. Well, the 50% long was tested and the decline continued and broke that 61.8% micro LONG. So, the next level for the /ES to test is the original 50% measured move long at /ES 2493.50. Break that and I believe micro wave iv started. If the triangle continues to form and the /ES rallies off the bottom tread line of the triangle and /ES rallies to it’s profit targets at 2509.76 and 2513.74, could that be counted as micro wave iv complete and SPX trading in micro wave v?


  28. tradeanimal says:

    Thanks Tony…Glad to see you are back and hope you are doing well! Wish you well.

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